Yes. The word “lottery” allows you to make that determination quite easily.
I play the lottery every week, 5-quick pick and 2-$10.00 scratch off. Never have won any money on powerball but have won several hundred off scratchoff tickets. I have actually won more than paid out on the scratch off tickets.
Fine. Just for you, I’ll take the 200 lottery tickets!
Why? It’s NOT because I think it’s a better bet. Because it’s not. It’s because you’re literally offering either of them free of charge, which is a completely different scenario from buying them.
So I could take the $50 but I’m not that desperate for cash. So fuck it. Give me the lottery tickets!
They are on the way!
Now, I have a real shaky understanding of quantum mechanics, but is it not true that there is no way to know what is truly behind door #1 until the door is opened for all to see, and that up to that point there could be anything from a toaster to a camel behind said door?
My understanding of quantum mechanics is also shaky. But if the possibilities only range from toaster to camel, I think I’ll just stick with lottery tickets.
But a camel can be exchanged for many many lottery tickets.
I’d rather have the Camel Bucks.
Homer: Awww… 20 dollars!? I wanted a peanut.
Homer’s brain: 20 dollars can buy many peanuts!
Homer: Explain how.
Homer’s brain: Money can be exchanged for goods and services!
Homer: Woo hoo!
No, someone put the camel/toaster behind the door. You could ask them…
I think it is. As long as the payout is better is better than 25% it’s the better option. I would hope every lottery has a better payout than 25%.
There’s a camel toe joke in here somewhere but I’m not willing to look for it.
Obviously, if you are looking for the best probable monetary result, then take the $50.
But, on the other hand, if you enjoy the thrill of playing a stratch-off ticket, then maybe it would be fun to spend $50 potential dollars on them.
After all, what have you got to lose? You didn’t have either the $50 or the 50 scratch-off tickets before this scenario was enacted, did you?
If immediate recreation is what you want, then get the tickets.
If you have developed a sense of delayed satisfaction, then get the $50.
A co-worker of mine just won $50,000 on a $20 scratch ticket. He started by buying 2 $1 tickets and one of them was worth $25. He used that to buy the winning ticket and 5 more dollar tickets. He took today off to visit the lottery office to collect his winnings.
Grad student in statistics here, and this is the best answer. Forget the odds and the expected values, and just think.
If you have a jackpot prize that increases when not won, the run of lotteries can come out with an expected value in favour of the house, while a single lottery comes out with an expected value against the house.
What’s that after taxes? About half?
$50.
:rolleyes:
Smartass
Which is infinitely better than being a dumbass!
Wait, after a number of people here spend time justifying how your lottery could claim they pay 2:1 odds, you finally come back with:
Do you mean you were just dicking around with us? Some of us spent a chunk of time searching lottery websites for their odds, and I was asking friends on another board how some state could print “2:1 Odds of Winning” on their tickets.
What a waste. And this is YOUR thread! If you hadn’t invented this, we could have answered the question and moved on. Your 2:1 contention was calling into question the validity of every other poster’s answer. Were you trying to make them look stupid? Or just wrong? Look, If I’m mistaken here, if it actually says this on your ticket, I apologize. People have asked you to scan your ticket… please do.
But if you were “kidding” or “being sarcastic”, please stop.
Not to complicate the issue because the answers given are almost always correct, but there have been real state lottery scratch tickets that had a positive expected value at least for some time periods. Massachusetts had the Cash Winfall game (I am not sure if it still exists) that had some complicated rules that made it go to a very high positive expected value (over 40%) during some circumstances. Some people figured it out and won big on it. Similar games have existed in other states as well.
"When the jackpot for the match-six-numbers Massachusetts Cash WinFall tops $2 million without a winner, the prize money rolls down to the lower-tier winners, dramatically increasing the value of a win for people who match 2, 3, 4, or 5 numbers.
Mark Muir did the math, and figures that if you buy enough tickets under the roll-down scenario, you’re statistically guaranteed a return on your “investment.” The numbers start to get substantial the more tickets you buy. For example, he figures that when you buy $10,000 worth of tickets under roll-down conditions:"