# 50% of Marriages End in Divorce Myth **URL:** \ **Category:** Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports\ **Created:** [March 31, 2007, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224 "2007-03-31T17:53:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bang\_This](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/f19dbf/32.png) [@Bang\_This](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bang_This)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2007, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/1 "2007-03-31T17:53:02Z")
I often heard it was a myth but can’t figure out why and if so, where the figure came from? I don’t get the explination on snopes, anyone can explain it a bit more simply. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2007, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/2 "2007-03-31T17:58:57Z")
[Is it true half of all marriages end in divorce?](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/030124.html) Keep in mind that, if half of all marriages do end in divorce, this is not the same thing at all as saying that half of all married people get divorced. It could mean that a relatively few people were getting married and divorced numerous times, so many times that their marriages accounted for half of all marriages. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2007, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/3 "2007-03-31T20:12:32Z")
[QUOTE=Thudlow Boink] [Is it true half of all marriages end in divorce?](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/030124.html) Keep in mind that, if half of all marriages do end in divorce, this is not the same thing at all as saying that half of all married people get divorced. It could mean that a relatively few people were getting married and divorced numerous times, so many times that their marriages accounted for half of all marriages. [/QUOTE] I don’t think that’s what your cite is saying. It’s not comparing the number of divorces to marriages, disregarding the number of people included in either category. > [@](#): > > To put it another way, among leading-edge baby boomers–on the chart, 45- and 50-year-olds–more than 40 percent have already been divorced at least once, and close to half are expected to divorce at some point in their lives. Among those born in 1971, smack in the middle of Generation X, more than half are predicted to divorce, and God knows what those flighty slackers in Gen Y will do. Sure, such projections may not pan out. But when the Census Bureau did a similar study in 1975, it figured that only a third of leading-edge baby boomers would end up divorcing, substantially underestimating the rate at which divorce has already occurred in that group. If this is true, that close to 50% of women will divorce at least once by the time they’re 50 (or older), than the myth appears to hold some water after all, and it’s not one woman getting divorced a billion times skewing the conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Gentle\_Robot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e495f1/32.png) [@Gentle\_Robot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gentle_Robot)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2007, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/4 "2007-03-31T20:45:49Z")
It’s a statistic. The rule there is to take it with a grain of salt, consider the source, and watch the wording. In casual use, people grossly reword already convoluted statistics to suit their interpretation. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2007, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/5 "2007-03-31T21:15:00Z")
[QUOTE=Bang This] I often heard it was a myth but can’t figure out why and if so, where the figure came from? I don’t get the explanation on snopes, anyone can explain it a bit more simply. [/QUOTE] I would think that attitudes like those expressed in your user name would make it very believable. ---
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2007, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/6 "2007-04-01T01:24:56Z")
[QUOTE=Gentle Robot] It’s a statistic. The rule there is to take it with a grain of salt, consider the source, and watch the wording. [/QUOTE] Unfortunately, the statement that “half of all marriages today end in divorce” isn’t even a statistic. It’s a _projection_ of what a statistic _will be_. We won’t know whether it’s valid for another 60 to 70 years, when all of the people who get married “today” are dead. Conversely, we can only know for sure what percentage of marriages at a given time ended in divorce if we go back 60 to 70 years. But it would take a lot of legwork to determine that number, and it wouldn’t be all that interesting, because conditions have changed so much in 70 years. In trying to guess whether a projection that 50% of this year’s marriages will end in divorce is reasonable, we can look at statistics like **Cecil** ’s, but caution: > [@Stratocaster](#): > > If this is true, that close to 50% of women will divorce at least once by the time they’re 50 (or older), than the myth appears to hold some water after all . . . At first glance, a statistic that 50% of people have been divorced seems consistent with a 50% marriage failure rate, but it isn’t. Most divorced people remarry. In an extreme case, if everybody marries, divorces, remarries, and stays remarried until one partner dies, 100% of the population has been divorced, but only 50% of marriages are ending in failure. This extreme situation isn’t going to occur in real life, but my point is, the percentage of marriages ending in divorce is likely far lower than the percentage of people who have _been_ divorced. ---
**Author:** ![pesch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pesch/32/4925_2.png) [@pesch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pesch)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2007, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/7 "2007-04-01T02:23:44Z")
Here’s an example of statistics on marriage. In Pennsylvania in 2005, there were 58,427 marriages and 29,143 divorces. Hence, people see this and assume that “half of all marriages end in divorce.” (The source, I’m afraid is in the Sunday Patriot-News, Harrisburg, Pa., for 4/1/07) ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2007, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/8 "2007-04-01T03:40:35Z")
[http://www.divorcemag.com/statistics/statsUS.shtml](http://www.divorcemag.com/statistics/statsUS.shtml) Here is more than you ever need to know about divorce. ---
**Author:** ![Eleusis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Eleusis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eleusis)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2007, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/9 "2007-04-01T08:13:57Z")
[QUOTE=Gentle Robot] It’s a statistic. The rule there is to take it with a grain of salt, consider the source, and watch the wording. In casual use, people grossly reword already convoluted statistics to suit their interpretation. [/QUOTE] **Gentle Robot** is correct. In actuality, it really depends on how much of a fucking bitch your damn wife has become over time, and how much weight she might have gained since the ceremony. Also, less importantly, but dependant on the individual relationship, such crucial factors such as mowing the lawn, doing the dishes, viagara, The Changing Of The Diaper, and blowjobs can also skew the scientific results. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2007, 8:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/10 "2007-04-01T08:54:30Z")
[QUOTE=pesch] Here’s an example of statistics on marriage. In Pennsylvania in 2005, there were 58,427 marriages and 29,143 divorces. Hence, people see this and assume that “half of all marriages end in divorce.” (The source, I’m afraid is in the Sunday Patriot-News, Harrisburg, Pa., for 4/1/07) [/QUOTE] This is usually how the figure of 50% is arrived at. It doesn’t allow for the fact that the 29,143 divorces come from over 2,500,000 married couples. [Truth or Fiction](http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/d/divorce.htm) has apiece on the subject. ---
**Author:** ![Rico](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rico/32/3582_2.png) [@Rico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rico)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2007, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/50-of-marriages-end-in-divorce-myth/398224/11 "2007-04-01T11:42:20Z")
\ As this is a question regarding one of Cecil’s columns, I am going to move this over to the Comments forum. \