# 53% of U.S. foreign policy experts now oppose the surge **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 20, 2007, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251 "2007-08-20T15:01:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/1 "2007-08-20T15:01:00Z")
Story [here.](http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1745774020070820) > [@](#): > > As Congress and the White House await the September release of a key progress report on Iraq, 53 percent of the experts polled by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress said they now oppose Bush’s troop build-up. > > That is a 22 percentage point jump since the strategy was announced early this year. > > The survey of 108 experts, including Republicans and Democrats, showed opposition to the so-called “surge” across the political spectrum, with about two-thirds of conservatives saying it has been ineffective or made things worse in Iraq. > > \ > > Ninety-one percent of those polled said the world has grown more dangerous for Americans and the United States, up 10 percent from February. > > More than 80 percent of the experts said they expected another September 11-scale attack on the United States over the next decade, despite what they described as significant improvements among U.S. security, law enforcement and intelligence agencies. > > A decade from now, the Middle East still will be reeling from the ill-effects of the Iraq war, particularly heightened Sunni-Shi’ite tensions in the region, 58 percent said. > > Thirty-five percent believed Arab dictators will have been discouraged from pursuing political reforms as a result. > > Only 3 percent believed the United States will achieve its goal of rebuilding Iraq into a beacon of democracy within the next 10 years. Will this have any influence on the Administration? On the debates in Congress? ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/2 "2007-08-20T16:17:19Z")
Probably not. The response to things like this can always be that those polled don’t have to implement, or live with the results of, their opinions. Of course GW isn’t going to have to live with the results of his opinions either but that’s a whole other discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/3 "2007-08-20T21:53:01Z")
I doubt it. There are enough people who say the surge is working (many citizens, some military, some pundits, some politicians - even a few Democrats here and there, if what I’ve heard is right) to “balance things out.” Despite the jump, they’ll probably just look at the 53% and think it really isn’t a compelling enough majority. ---
**Author:** ![Blalron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/35a633/32.png) [@Blalron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blalron)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/4 "2007-08-20T22:04:35Z")
[QUOTE=Leaper] I doubt it. There are enough people who say the surge is working (many citizens, some military, some pundits, some politicians - even a few Democrats here and there, if what I’ve heard is right) to “balance things out.” Despite the jump, they’ll probably just look at the 53% and think it really isn’t a compelling enough majority. [/QUOTE] Hell, it could be 90% and Bush would still ignore it. Look at how he’s ignored global warming where the overwhelming opinion of experts is that humans are responsible. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/5 "2007-08-20T22:19:34Z")
[QUOTE=Blalron] Hell, it could be 90% and Bush would still ignore it. Look at how he’s ignored global warming where the overwhelming opinion of experts is that humans are responsible. [/QUOTE] True enough. And it’s (partly) for much the same reason, besides their personal beliefs: there are enough people in government and the citizenry who believe the surge is working to encourage them to move on with it. It makes it easier to dismiss the opposite side as naysayers who made up their mind already and “won’t look at the facts.” (Ironic, yes, but it does work both ways.) I would also argue, as an aside, that I’m not sure such a poll SHOULD be enough to make this President, or ANY President, make a course change on such an important issue. Reconsider, certainly, but if this were all it took to make someone take a completely different route, I’d be worried. Maybe just as a tipping point… ---
**Author:** ![gazpacho](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6f9a4e/32.png) [@gazpacho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gazpacho)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/6 "2007-08-20T22:26:29Z")
Doesn’t that mean that 47% agree with it? That does not seem to me to be a very damning grade at all? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/7 "2007-08-20T22:32:13Z")
That’s what I thought at first. Then I noticed the part in the original article, quoted in the OP, that it’s a 22% rise since the surge’s announcement. That’s the significant part, I think. Plus, remember that “undecideds” and such probably take up at least a few (although I don’t know whether “foreign policy experts” are less likely to be undecided on their field of expertise than normal citizens on random subjects). ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/8 "2007-08-20T22:35:09Z")
Who are these ‘experts’ exactly…and why should we care what they think? Did you think they were right earlier this year when 22% more of them agreed (presumably) with Bush’s Iraq war? Are they the same 108 (a whole 108? Wow, thats a large sample size, ehe?) polled ‘earlier this year’? -XT ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/9 "2007-08-20T22:37:21Z")
[QUOTE=gazpacho] Doesn’t that mean that 47% agree with it? That does not seem to me to be a very damning grade at all? [/QUOTE] I don’t think so. It doesn’t say how many supported, but mentioned “with about two-thirds of conservatives saying it has been ineffective or made things worse in Iraq.” As I imagine support for the surge is probably higher amongst conservatives then the other experts, I’m guessing there were 3-categories: the surge made things better, worse, or was ineffective. And if we assume the conservatives were the most optomistic, that means that less then a third of experts polled thought the surge was effective. ---
**Author:** ![wendigo1974](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c37758/32.png) [@wendigo1974](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wendigo1974)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/10 "2007-08-20T22:48:23Z")
[QUOTE=Leaper] That’s what I thought at first. Then I noticed the part in the original article, quoted in the OP, that it’s a 22% rise since the surge’s announcement. That’s the significant part, I think. [/QUOTE] Only if you apply a business like ‘instant gratification’ requirement to results. It seems alot more like punditry to me. What is actually going on is being overlooked. ---
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/11 "2007-08-20T23:05:13Z")
As long as Laura and Barney still approve, I think we’re out of luck. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/12 "2007-08-20T23:36:03Z")
Well, Rove dissed Barney on the way out - maybe the dog won the argument? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2007, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/13 "2007-08-21T00:40:41Z")
I find it staggering that 65% (assuming 100-57+22 is the percentage that USED to support the surge) of any group of any intelligent, educated people in the Western world would have actually thought this “Surge” strategy was anything but the most transparent time-buying bullshit. Nobody seriously thought this “surge” meant anything. Who qualifies as a “Foreign policy expert,” anyway? ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2007, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/14 "2007-08-21T00:42:34Z")
Someone who was invited to participate in the survey, would be my first guess… ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2007, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/15 "2007-08-21T03:29:17Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] I find it staggering that 65% (assuming 100-57+22 is the percentage that USED to support the surge) of any group of any intelligent, educated people in the Western world would have actually thought this “Surge” strategy was anything but the most transparent time-buying bullshit. Nobody seriously thought this “surge” meant anything. [/QUOTE] Well, The Surge™ is obviously just a catchy buzzword. What I find interesting is how some folks latch onto this as if it proves something. I mean, we are talking about 108 ‘experts’ here…70.2 who presumably thought that the US strategy was good sometime ‘early this year’. Now we presumably have 57.23 of those people who think The Surge™ is not a good idea. So…why do people (such as the OP) care? Because now they are saying what some people want to hear? Was their viewpoint valid ‘early this year’ as well, or only valid now that they are saying things BG likes? I know which answer I’m leaning toward here… -XT ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2007, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/16 "2007-08-21T04:26:59Z")
[QUOTE=wendigo1974] What is actually going on is being overlooked. [/QUOTE] What is actually going on? ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2007, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/17 "2007-08-21T08:45:03Z")
[QUOTE=David Simmons] What is actually going on? [/QUOTE] All the good stuff the Evil Liberal Media is not telling us. I bet you didn’t know it actually, literally, rained ponies in Basra only two days ago did you? Meanwhile - ignore things like [governors getting blown up](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6954467.stm) > [@](#): > > The Shia governor of Iraq’s southern Muthana province has been killed by a roadside bomb, officials have said. > > The governor, Mohammed Ali al-Hasani, was killed when the bomb exploded next to his convoy as it drove through the provincial capital, Samawa, police say. > > \ > > He is the second Shia governor killed this month. > > On 11 August the governor of Diwaniya, Khalil Jalil Hamza, was killed by a roadside bomb along with police chief Maj-Gen Khaled Hassan. Instead pay more attention to [The Man Who Knows All](http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070818/wl_afp/usiraqbushpolitics_070818192636) > [@](#): > > US President George W. Bush on Saturday praised what he called “progress and reconciliation” achieved in some Iraqi communities, but pointedly avoided using US government-approved benchmarks in assessing the situation in the country. > > \ > > In the overwhelmingly Shiite province of Muthanna, the president went on to note, the local council held a public meeting, A public meeting! Democracy is on the march, surges are surging successfully. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2007, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/18 "2007-08-21T14:34:20Z")
[QUOTE=tagos] All the good stuff the Evil Liberal Media is not telling us. I bet you didn’t know it actually, literally, rained ponies in Basra only two days ago did you? Meanwhile - ignore things like [governors getting blown up](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6954467.stm) Instead pay more attention to [The Man Who Knows All](http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070818/wl_afp/usiraqbushpolitics_070818192636) A public meeting! Democracy is on the march, surges are surging successfully. :rolleyes: [/QUOTE] Well, you have to admit that people in Iraq, including governors, getting blown up and GW telling whoppers are “dog bites man” by now and only deserve a few lines on page 11. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2007, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/19 "2007-08-21T16:55:42Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Who are these ‘experts’ exactly…and why should we care what they think? [/QUOTE] From the article: > [@](#): > > Foreign Policy, published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the experts polled on May 23 to June 26 included former government officials in senior positions including secretary of state, White House national security adviser and top military commanders. [QUOTE=xtisme] Did you think they were right earlier this year when 22% more of them agreed (presumably) with Bush’s Iraq war? [/quote] Any thinking person will (usually) (hopefully) (OK, sometimes) change his/her mind in light of new information incompatible with that on which earlier conclusions were based. The difference is that these “experts” know more than you or I about all this stuff in the first place, thus are ahead of that curve compared to the layman. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2007, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251/20 "2007-08-21T17:37:50Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Any thinking person will (usually) (hopefully) (OK, sometimes) change his/her mind in light of new information incompatible with that on which earlier conclusions were based. The difference is that these “experts” know more than you or I about all this stuff in the first place, thus are ahead of that curve compared to the layman. [/QUOTE] Horseshit. BG, I don’t think many people around here (including me) thought the war was going well by early 2007 (2007!)…yet 22% of those ‘experts’ DID think that. Were they ‘ahead of the curve’?? Did you believe their analysys earlier this year? I know I certainly didn’t…I thought the war was going particularly BADLY earlier this year (hell, for most of last year too). Its funny how, now that they are saying what you want to hear, these folk are ‘ahead of the curve’. Personally, I was hoping the administration would do SOMETHING different, and not the same old same old…and now they have at least tried something different. Yet before we even have more than a few months to evaluate whats going on, a bunch of ‘experts’ (who 22% more thought the war was going WELL earlier this year) now say its not…really before an indepth evaluation has even been made of exactly what IS happening. Maybe these ‘experts’ will be right this time…I mean, a stopped clock is right twice a day I guess. Blind squirels and nuts and all that… -XT [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/53-of-u-s-foreign-policy-experts-now-oppose-the-surge/416251.md?page=2)