# 538 and the Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 20, 2016, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464 "2016-09-20T20:25:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/1 "2016-09-20T20:25:02Z")
538 has their [Senate prediction](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/) up today. Right now they’re predicting a 58.6% chance that the democratic party controls the senate following the upcoming election. Interesting data, especially with some oddballs like Bayh stomping in the Indiana race and McGinty having a 57.2% chance in overtaking Toomey in Pennsylvania. The most interesting thing, to my mind, is the Balance of Power graph towards the bottom. The spread runs from the Republicans picking up net 2 seats (0.3%) to Democrats picking up 15 seats (\<0.1%). The spread is hugely D leaning. The ‘most likely’ outcome (14.4%) is D+5 - which would give the Democratic Party a 1 seat majority. The second most likely outcome (14.2%) is a tied Senate which then falls to the Vice President. Go Tim Kaine, I guess. Still, I’m a guy who loves numbers. And this gives me numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/2 "2016-09-21T01:36:23Z")
The race I have my eye on is right now is MO. 538 has it 2:1 R right now, but the only poll in the last two weeks was D+2 which 538 adjusted to D+4 and the D candidate can assemble a rifle blindfolded. Looking forward to more polling in that race. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/3 "2016-10-06T02:47:18Z")
This seems like the best thread to bump to ask this question: Three polls for PA Senate in the last 2 days. One Franklin and Marshall (538 B+ R+0.4 lean) with McGinty +6. Another, Monmouth (A+ D+0.6 lean), a tie. And a third Quinnipiac (A- R 0.7 lean) with Toomey +8. Why such widely disparate results? That’s a 14 point spread! ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/4 "2016-10-06T12:37:00Z")
Gotta admit, that’s weird. All the sample sizes are relatively small, though, at around 500 surveys each. I think the only thing to do is look at the trendline and wait for more data. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/5 "2016-10-06T14:03:16Z")
This is actually surprising. I would expect with the “run” away from Trump by many Republicans, the focus would have been on a strong showing in the Senate and House races. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/6 "2016-10-06T14:12:58Z")
I’m a guy who gets headaches from numbers! 😉 Not sure what all that means - just glad to see they have IL trending so blue. I had thought it was closer. Kirk has really been keeping a low (and managed) profile. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/7 "2016-10-06T17:52:17Z")
OOh, nice: > **[2016 Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/)** > > Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 Senate elections ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/8 "2016-10-06T17:59:56Z")
I am still waiting for another Missouri senate poll. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/9 "2016-10-06T18:15:46Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I am still waiting for another Missouri senate poll. Man, look at the pic on wiki: > **[Roy Blunt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Blunt)** > > Roy Dean Blunt (born January 10, 1950) is an American politician who served as a United States senator from Missouri from 2011 to 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the 33rd Missouri Secretary of State (1985–1993) and U.S. Representative for Missouri's 7th congressional district (1997–2011). > Born in Niangua, Missouri, Blunt is a graduate of Southwest Baptist University and Southwest Missouri State University (now Missouri State University). After serving as Missour... shudders. Would you buy a used car or leave your child alone with that man? ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/10 "2016-10-06T18:25:12Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Man, look at the pic on wiki: > > [Roy Blunt - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Blunt) > > shudders. > > Would you buy a used car or leave your child alone with that man? And Trump said Kaine looked like a Batman villain? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/11 "2016-10-06T20:05:38Z")
There was a 13 point swing against Blunt yesterday in [this market](https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2688/Will-Roy-Blunt-be-re-elected-in-2016#data). I’m not sure why that happened but I bought $10 of “No” a month ago so I’m not complaining. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2016, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/12 "2016-10-07T20:02:57Z")
From another thread: > [@Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/498): > > The RCP average has him 16 points up; are you suggesting that his reelection is unlikely? Any chance of a Kirkpatrick upset in Arizona? [538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/arizona/) puts it 95.7% probability of McCain winning and projects a 12.7% margin. So okay, pretty improbable that she’ll win. But I’d bet on her at least overperforming predictions assuming current decreasing Trump support continues. I don’t think many will split tickets. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2016, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/13 "2016-10-07T20:44:57Z")
Let me expand the question having just heard Rich Lowry interviewed on the POTUS channel expansive on the fact that many GOP candidates are outperforming Trump in polls in their states. The interview was in reference to [this article](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/440818/donald-trump-republican-party-can-trump-overcome-his-demons-and-be-disciplined) by him and the figures as he cites are: > [@](#): > > … Republican Senate candidates consistently outperform Trump. According to the latest batch of Quinnipiac polls, Marco Rubio is at 48 percent in Florida and Trump is at 44. Rob Portman is at 55 in Ohio and Trump is at 46. Pat Toomey is at 50 in Pennsylvania and Trump is at 43. Richard Burr, though, is even with Trump at 46 in North Carolina. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Kelly Ayotte is running 10 points ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. Even an embattled incumbent senator like Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson is doing 3.3 points better than Trump in his state. This is not typical. A Republican consultant who looked at data going back to 1996 found that swing-state Senate incumbents tend to run even with the presidential candidate and no more than 2 points ahead, except in a couple extraordinary cases. Consider Rob Portman. He is no one’s idea of a bomb-thrower. His political hero is George H. W. Bush. But he is doing better than Trump in a Trump-friendly state. … So the question to me is not his contention about that meaning Trump would be doing better if he was less “abnormal” and that other candidates than Clinton would do better than her, but if those polling differences will hold up on election day. Will the relative weakness of Trump in some of those states decrease turnout of those who would be voting for the GOP candidate? Will they pull a straight ticket and end up voting D even though they do slightly prefer the R senate candidate? Or do both the presidential and the senatorial sets of polls fairly accurately convey how voters will vote? ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/14 "2016-10-08T01:59:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Or do both the presidential and the senatorial sets of polls fairly accurately convey how voters will vote? While it’s been a long time since I was an Ohio Resident I grew up there and still hear quite a bit with family mostly there. Ohio feels reasonable. If you look at the PPP poll ([pdf link](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_100616.pdf)): - Among Democrats Hillary is only polling 86% against Trump’s 12%. She’s down 40% to 51% among Ohio independents. That’s not really surprising if you have a feel for the Democratic support in the state. There’s a chunk of not very liberal, blue collar labor Democrats. There’s also Appalachian counties that still lean Democrat despite being overwhelmingly white, poor, high school (or less) educated, and vehemently against gun control. Both groups are a good fit for the typical Trump demographic and IME tend to be susceptible to the populist message Trump has. It seems to show with the higher rate of defection from a straight line party vote - Humorously it’s Republican defectors that are helping make up the difference to keep Clinton close. Among Republicans it’s 82% Trump, 14% Clinton. Ohio isn’t just a swing state it’s showing a bigger chunk of swing voters than the nation as a whole. It’s probably misleading to try and apply typical nationwide levels of partisan straight ticket voting to questions about the Ohio races. That doesn’t directly explain why Strickland is getting his ass kicked, though. Strickland’s approval ratings provide a good hint for that. He’s at 31% statewide with only 58% of Democrats having a favorable opinion of him. This is a guy who lost his last statewide election, gave up about a third of the primary vote to a weak field (a Cincinnati city council member and an occupational therapist), and hasn’t held an elected office since Kasich defeated him six years ago. It probably shouldn’t be shocking that the poll shows 18% of Ohio Democrats are planning to vote for Portman (with another 11% of Democrats still undecided.) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/15 "2016-10-08T04:43:19Z")
Here’s our thread on Ohio’s U.S. Senate race (incumbent Republican Rob Portman v. Democratic challenger Ted Strickland): [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=805396](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=805396) ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/16 "2016-10-08T04:57:48Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Man, look at the pic on wiki: > > [Roy Blunt - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Blunt) > > shudders. > > Would you buy a used car or leave your child alone with that man? He’s been in the Senate a while now. Somehow I don’t expect him to lose. I don’t know, but I suspect his looks owe something to tobacco. He is pretty much the candidate of air pollution in general. Also, his name translates to King Doobie, so some jokers vote for him for that reason. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/17 "2016-10-09T07:09:01Z")
The Senate is where the real suspense is now. A couple of the Dems’ pickup opportunities have flamed out(OH, FL), but three have come up that weren’t possible before(MO, NC, IN). ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/18 "2016-10-10T07:16:44Z")
So explain to this non US observer, why no threads on congress, and why no 538 predictions on congress? Since Trump has basically said that his supporters shouldn’t vote for Republicans that have dis-avowed him, isn’t there a chance the Dems could take back Congress as well as the Senate? ---
**Author:** ![ganthet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de0a6/32.png) [@ganthet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ganthet)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/19 "2016-10-10T07:28:48Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > So explain to this non US observer, why no threads on congress, and why no 538 predictions on congress? Since Trump has basically said that his supporters shouldn’t vote for Republicans that have dis-avowed him, isn’t there a chance the Dems could take back Congress as well as the Senate? Likely because there are some (many?) of the 435 congressional districts where no real polling has been or will be done. Or maybe a single poll here and there, but nothing substantive enough with enough of a baseline to establish a data-based forecast for what the likely outcome will be. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/20 "2016-10-10T07:37:03Z")
Huh, ok, seems a little odd to me since congress actually controls the budget as I understand it, that so little attention is paid to the congressional race, in both media and polls. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464.md?page=2)