# 538 and the Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 20, 2016, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464 "2016-09-20T20:25:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/61 "2016-10-16T20:07:19Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I guess Obama’s " telling Republicans what they are supposed to want" consisted of telling them they’re supposed to want all Americans to have access to decent health care. Just to make sure I’m clear, yes, politicians of all stripes ARE supposed to want all Americans to have decent health care, because it’s a fundamentally Good Thing. Of course, it’s quite reasonable for them to say, “sure, I’d like all Americans to have decent health care, as long as it doesn’t cost too much, or doesn’t require that we turn all medical professionals into indentured servants, or have some other unreasonable cost or consequence,” but that’s the sort of thing that GOP Senators had plenty of opportunity to provide input about, and passed up the opportunity entirely rather than let themselves be contaminated by association with the very idea of universal health care. It wasn’t that there were particular problems with the ACA that they pointed out that Obama said, “my way or the highway,” what the non-negotiations over the ACA demonstrated was that they opposed the fundamental idea of universal health care itself, regardless of the details. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/62 "2016-10-17T04:08:55Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Gimme a for-instance. > > I’ll give you one: Obama spent most of 2009 dickering with the likes of Sens. Grassley and Enzi (Gang of Six, remember?) to try to find out how he could modify the ACA to gain their support. This was a bill, remember, that already was as market-oriented as it was possible for a near-universal health care bill to be - and it was basically the same scheme that Gov. Romney had recently instituted in Massachusetts. > > But they never volunteered any changes that would have gained their support without making the bill fail of its purpose of insuring the vast majority of uninsured Americans. On the stimulus, no Republican input was desired. He included some tax cuts and decided that they should support $400 billion in new spending becuase there were also $400 billion in taxes. On health care, it was modelled after an old Republican plan, yes, but that part of it was never up for negotiation. and Democrats really shouldn’t be faulting Republicans for opposing it anymore given how poorly it’s set up. It is literally designed to fail and will fail if not changed. On the budget crises, all Obama ever did in meetings with Republicans is talk about what he would not do and lecture them. Then they went to talk to Biden and actually got somewhere. The deal Obama eventually accepted was negotiated by Biden, not the President. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/63 "2016-10-18T00:26:13Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So this seems weird. > > Right now 538 has Democratic control rating at 64% odds on NowCast, 56% PollsOnly, and 61% PollsPlus. PollsPlus and NowCast being close and PollsOnly as the relative outlier just is odd. > > Anyway NowCast, the current temperature metric, has moved from D 43% (the lowest it had been since end of July) on 10/6 to D 64% today and 68% yesterday. Yeah a move up of 25% probability between yesterday and the one week before. > > Kind of puzzling why yesterday had a 538 [post](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-clinton-is-surging-but-down-ballot-democrats-are-losing-ground/?utm_content=buffer1aa62&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer) on how much the D’s chances in the Senate are “losing ground.” NowCast has bounced up and down around 60% probability since the end of August. PollsOnly and PollsPlus staying mostly mid 50s with the same bouncing. > > Sometimes 538’s analysis gets very silly. And yeah, only three days later their PollsOnly estimate has jumped to D 71%, the highest it’s been in their entire tracking cycle. So much for their “Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground” headline. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/64 "2016-10-18T02:42:22Z")
And 538 has [Kander slightly favored over Blunt](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/missouri/) for the first time. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/65 "2016-10-18T02:47:26Z")
The Now-cast now has the odds of the Dems taking the Senate at 81.2%, with the most probable outcome a Dem gain of six seats for a total of 52. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/66 "2016-10-18T06:40:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Obama has never negotiated, and his bending over backwards consists of telling Republicans what they are supposed to want and then being surprised that they want something else. > [@adaher](#): > > On the budget crises, all Obama ever did in meetings with Republicans is talk about what he would not do and lecture them. Then they went to talk to Biden and actually got somewhere. The deal Obama eventually accepted was negotiated by Biden, not the President. Bullshit. On the budget, Obama offered a change in how Social Security benefits are adjusted for inflation, a method called “chained CPI”. In return he asked for closing of tax loopholes. Republicans wouldn’t budge. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/67 "2016-10-18T07:12:34Z")
That was a public offer that he only made because he knew it would not be accepted. He never broached the issue in private negotiations. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 8:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/68 "2016-10-18T08:25:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That was a public offer that he only made because he knew it would not be accepted. He never broached the issue in private negotiations. You know what happened in private negotiations, _and_ you know what the president was thinking? Wow, I’m gonna have to ask for proof on both of those claims. ETA: And you know what, even if you’re right it only proves my point. I said the Republicans wouldn’t budge, and you say that the offer was only made because Republicans wouldn’t budge. So who’s being obstructionist? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/69 "2016-10-18T13:21:38Z")
Read The Price of Politics, by Bob Woodward. People that want to make actual deals make offers when there’s a negotiating process going on, not after it’s finished and you want more revenue increases. The GOP could have jumped at the deal and then Obama would have pulled it away like Lucy with the football. He did the same thing in private negotiations. They had a deal and Obama says, “Okay, now I want more revenue.” ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/70 "2016-10-18T14:07:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Read The Price of Politics, by Bob Woodward. People that want to make actual deals make offers when there’s a negotiating process going on, not after it’s finished and you want more revenue increases. > > The GOP could have jumped at the deal and then Obama would have pulled it away like Lucy with the football. He did the same thing in private negotiations. They had a deal and Obama says, “Okay, now I want more revenue.” So you admit you’re just making it up. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/71 "2016-10-18T14:23:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The GOP could have jumped at the deal and then Obama would have pulled it away like Lucy with the football. Are you changing your argument from “Obama didn’t offer any concessions” to “Obama did offer concessions but he didn’t really mean it”? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/72 "2016-10-18T14:40:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > On the stimulus, no Republican input was desired. Yeah, the Dems only cut $100B from the stimulus to get Susan Collins’ vote. Now what was that about no Republican input??? > [@](#): > > On health care, it was modelled after an old Republican plan, yes, but that part of it was never up for negotiation Exactly _what_ was never up for negotiation? That the plan would actually insure millions of formerly uninsured Americans? Look, the Republicans have had **seven years** to present their ‘repeal and replace’, buahaha, alternative. We’re still waiting. If you don’t have an alternative, _there’s nothing to negotiate about_. > [@](#): > > On the budget crises, all Obama ever did in meetings with Republicans is talk about what he would not do and lecture them. Back in 2011, when the GOP first threatened to shut down the government, Obama\*\* cut billions\*\*, as demanded by the government, for extensions to keep government running while they kept negotiating. He went along with [a $4B cut just to keep the government open for 2 more weeks](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24614218.html), and [an additional $6B cut for another 3 weeks after the first 2 weeks ended](http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/03/15/congress.spending/). And that doesn’t even include the further cuts he agreed to in the agreement that they reached during that 3-week extension. IOW, you are wrong. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/73 "2016-10-18T14:44:15Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > IOW, you are wrong. IOW, he’s deluded. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/74 "2016-10-18T16:54:52Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > The Now-cast now has the odds of the Dems taking the Senate at 81.2%, with the most probable outcome a Dem gain of six seats for a total of 52. That would be very nice, thankyouverymuch. ---
**Author:** ![TheSeaOtter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ed655f/32.png) [@TheSeaOtter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheSeaOtter)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/75 "2016-10-18T20:15:38Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > And 538 has [Kander slightly favored over Blunt](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/missouri/) for the first time. [Ross is also ahead of Burr](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/north-carolina/#polls) in NC for the first time. Democrats are currently ahead in every one of the ‘close’ senate races. (The next-closest R-leaning races are Rand Paul and Marco Rubio’s races, both with the Republican incumbent at over 70% chance to win.) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/76 "2016-10-18T23:48:48Z")
You’re right that public offers don’t carry the same weight as private ones. They carry _more_. They make it harder to, as you say, pull the football away. They’re also an example of transparent government, yet another thing that Obama did and which Republicans criticize him for not doing. ---
**Author:** ![rooostra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d07c76/32.png) [@rooostra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rooostra)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/77 "2016-10-19T00:41:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > On health care, it was modelled after an old Republican plan, yes, but that part of it was never up for negotiation. and Democrats really shouldn’t be faulting Republicans for opposing it anymore given how poorly it’s set up. It is literally designed to fail and will fail if not changed. If I recall correctly, there were 161 Republican amendments to the ACA (of the 210 that were proposed). The Public Option was scuttled in an attempt to get Republican votes. So I find it very disingenuous to claim that there was no Republican input. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/78 "2016-10-19T03:59:16Z")
The public option was scuttled by Senate Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![rooostra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d07c76/32.png) [@rooostra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rooostra)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/79 "2016-10-19T04:20:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The public option was scuttled by Senate Democrats. Correct. A compromise made in order to try and get Republicans on board. Perhaps made in order to get Republican input. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/80 "2016-10-19T09:05:44Z")
It was no compromise. The Blue Dogs opposed it, full stop. You can’t compromise on what you never had the power to pass. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464.md?page=5)