# 538 and the Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 20, 2016, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464 "2016-09-20T20:25:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2016, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/141 "2016-11-05T02:36:46Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > It’s down to 58% Dems. ☹ Indiana has gone red again, mainly due to relentless ads showing how Evan Bayh isn’t really an Indianan anymore. Which is true, his only connection to Indiana is a small apartment he’s probably never seen. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2016, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/142 "2016-11-05T11:55:35Z")
It’s actually starting to look really hopeful for the GOP. The Democrats got some good candidates name wise but mostly crap quality wise, resorting either to supposedly popular retreads or activsts who are too liberal for their states. The GOP is looking at 52-48 and might even get 53-47 if Johnson overtakes Feingold. Tammy Duckworth in Illinois is the only sure pickup. That being said, tons of really close races, so this could go anywhere from 55-45 GOP to 53-47 Dems. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/143 "2016-11-07T13:27:01Z")
Okay, I gotta ask, how is Strickland polling at sub-30%? I realize Portman’s done well and Strickland poorly, but he’s a relatively popular ex-governor. Portman up 10 I can see, but 30? I’ve never seen a candidate that well known repudiated that strongly unless there was some kind of scandal. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/144 "2016-11-07T21:12:53Z")
For a truly honest U.S. Senate campaign ad, click on the first (Gil Fulbright) video: [Honest Political Ad | This might be the only truly honest political ad you see this election cycle 😂 | By RepresentUsFacebook](https://www.facebook.com/RepresentUs/videos/1557598667587332/) > [@adaher](#): > > Okay, I gotta ask, how is Strickland polling at sub-30%? I realize Portman’s done well and Strickland poorly, but he’s a relatively popular ex-governor. Portman up 10 I can see, but 30? I’ve never seen a candidate that well known repudiated that strongly unless there was some kind of scandal. See here: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=805396](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=805396) ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/145 "2016-11-07T22:02:12Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I suspect the Senate analyses may be a bit misleading, in that senate polls are not updated as often as presidential ones. Since these various prediction models use aggregated polls, they tend to use at least some outdated ones, and don’t capture the latest movements as well as presidential models do. > > ISTM that the change in Senate numbers is related to the moves in presidential numbers, but a bit delayed. If Trump keeps moving up, I would interpret that as a plus for Republican senate chances, but if he crests, then I assume this is reflected in the Senate races as well, even if the poll aggregates don’t show it yet. At this time, Trump, has been declining a bit in 538’s odds, but Republican control of the Senate is now up to 53.8%. In line with the above, I suspect that this is primarily due to the lagging effect of Senate polls. [Also worth noting that a portion of the Republican’s Senate odds is based on the likelihood of the Republicans ending up with 50 seats and Trump winning. So if you buy Clinton winning, then Republican odds of Senate control are less than 50% at current calculations.] ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/146 "2016-11-07T23:06:07Z")
Over the past week, Silver has changed IN, MO, and NH from Blue to Pink. With all 3, that would put Republicans at 51 without the Veep. NH changed from Blue to Pink this morning then back to pale Blue this afternoon. Those two women have got to be looking like Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed in the final round at this point. No matter what happens, they BOTH deserve a vacation come Wednesday. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/147 "2016-11-07T23:09:34Z")
In general, ISTM that the Republicans are ahead in enough campaigns to hold the Senate. But several of those are razor thin margins. The likelihood that the Republicans win all the seats in which they’re ahead by a point or so in the aggregated polls is low. By contrast, the Democrats tend to have the bigger leads. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/148 "2016-11-08T00:56:12Z")
I’ll throw this unlikely to occur scenario out here. We may not know which party wins the the Louisiana senate seat until December 10th. There’s seven people on the ballot including multiple Republicans and Democrats. If no one gets 50% of the vote (likely) the top two vote getters go to a run off on December 10th. This could be a Democrat and a Republican (likely). The Dem could win the run off (unlikely). Louisiana recently elected a Dem governor and Trump won’t be on the ticket on the 10th so I’m not ruling this completely out. Also, imagine the amount of money that will flow into Louisiana in that month if Clinton wins and the senate is 49-50 D-R between Nov 8 and Dec 10. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/149 "2016-11-08T05:18:08Z")
If that happens, I know where Air Force One will be flying. ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/150 "2016-11-08T08:59:52Z")
How early in the day is it reasonable to expect the Senate race in New Hampshire to be called? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/151 "2016-11-08T11:33:12Z")
Called by who? Various internet pundits will be calling it by 9am Eastern. ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/152 "2016-11-08T13:45:25Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Called by who? Called by two or more publications/networks that care enough about their reputation that they would avoid calling it while it’s far from certain whether or not their call will hold up. ETA: Since the original question was on a previous page (depending on your settings), I’ll clarify: the question was, How early in the day is it reasonable to expect the Senate race in New Hampshire to be called? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/153 "2016-11-08T14:29:05Z")
nm. Started to say something inaccurate. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/154 "2016-11-08T14:55:47Z")
> [@bienville](#): > > How early in the day is it reasonable to expect the Senate race in New Hampshire to be called? Depends how close the vote is. The Minnesota race with Al Franken wasn’t called for weeks because of recounts, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/155 "2016-11-08T15:34:07Z")
Wouldn’t surprise me to see the NH race called within an hour of polls closing (which is 7pm). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/156 "2016-11-08T17:31:05Z")
I think we’ll take back the Senate, but it will be very close. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/157 "2016-11-09T02:11:53Z")
Well general opinion seems to be that Evan Bayh is losing Indiana but I didn’t call it for him anyway so it won’t impede the chances for a tied Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/158 "2016-11-09T03:32:31Z")
NPR said several hours ago that Bayh seemed likely to lose, FWIW. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/159 "2016-11-10T17:07:40Z")
Yes, Bayh lost. Democratic pickups in New Hampshire and Illinois, but Republicans still control the U.S. Senate and now have a six-vote majority: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United\_States\_Senate\_elections,\_2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016) ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/160 "2016-11-10T17:22:28Z")
4, really, since the 2 independents are Democrats for practical purposes. One thing to keep an eye on is that some of the people being floated as possible Trump cabinet members are current US Senators. I’ve not checked, but assume they wouldn’t appoint someone who wouldn’t be replaced by another Republican. Still, that opens these seats for challenges in the next election. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464.md?page=9)