# 538 and the Senate

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [September 20, 2016, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464 "2016-09-20T20:25:02Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 12

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [October 7, 2016, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-and-the-senate/766464/12 "2016-10-07T20:02:57Z")

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From another thread:

> [@Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/498):
>
> The RCP average has him 16 points up; are you suggesting that his reelection is unlikely?

Any chance of a Kirkpatrick upset in Arizona?

[538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/arizona/) puts it 95.7% probability of McCain winning and projects a 12.7% margin.

So okay, pretty improbable that she’ll win. But I’d bet on her at least overperforming predictions assuming current decreasing Trump support continues. I don’t think many will split tickets.

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