# 538 is No Longer a Credible Source **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 19, 2024, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449 "2024-07-19T04:58:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/61 "2024-07-20T16:19:21Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So nothing to do with Thiel having invested in the company that he is a hired advisor of? Just my $0.02: Thiel has an agenda he pursues in all things and he is perhaps more zealous than the Koch brothers. I would regard anything he is a part of with deep, deep suspicion. But, maybe it is different here. I am not informed enough to say but when Thiel becomes part of the conversation look closely is my advice (that no one asked for). ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/62 "2024-07-20T18:08:49Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’m not understanding what is being implied. This is a statement, not a question. Gorsnak said: > [@Gorsnak](#): > > I have seen numerous tweets today saying Nate Silver is now working for a company funded by Peter Thiel. And I posted one such Tweet. Ask a question and I will do my best to answer it. It’s not clear to me what information you’re after or what you’re having trouble with. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/63 "2024-07-20T18:22:43Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Is this a question? Are you asking me if you’re sure? If I wanted to know that, which I do not, I would ask you You’ve never heard that extremely common turn of phrase? And can’t figure out what the very obvious implied question is? Hmm. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/64 "2024-07-20T18:38:09Z")
He made a statement and put a question mark at the end. Then he followed up with more statements. I am not certain what he’s asking, who he is asking it of, or even if he’s really asking anything. I could make some assumptions, but I thought it would be easier to just ask him what he wants to know. It is not clear if he doesn’t understand me, @Gorsnak, the Tweet, or something else. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/65 "2024-07-20T18:55:27Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > He made a statement and put a question mark at the end. Person A: Tom Hanks was the first person on the moon. Person B: He was?? Person B is making a statement? Heck, that was a statement and not a question? This convention is so natural and widely used I’m flabbergasted that you cannot parse it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/66 "2024-07-20T19:11:40Z")
Who is the question directed to? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/67 "2024-07-20T19:29:01Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Person A: Tom Hanks was the first person on the moon. Which poster is person A in this analogy? Is it your opinion that someone made an obviously false statement? There is no need for an analogy here. What is this obvious question and who is it directed to? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/68 "2024-07-20T19:30:13Z")
It’s not an analogy. It’s an example to clear up your confusion about what a question is. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/69 "2024-07-20T19:31:26Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > It’s an example to clear up your confusion about what a question is. There is a much more straightforward way to clear up what the question is. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/70 "2024-07-20T19:34:56Z")
A vs the. You claimed to have general difficulty with the concept so I thought I would be helpful. You’re asking what the specific question is in “I’m not sure what you’re implying?” It’s “what are you implying?” ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/71 "2024-07-20T19:48:05Z")
I don’t want to put words in @Gorsnak’s mouth, but it seems somewhat obvious that when @Gorsnak stated that Nate Silver commenting on an election while working for a company that is funded by someone with a vested interest in the outcome of that election is, “Not a good look,” he was implying that Nate Silver commenting on an election while working for a company that is funded by someone with a vested interest in the outcome of that election is, “Not a good look.” I kind of assumed that he must have been asking something else, but I am happy nonetheless to have cleared up any confusion. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/72 "2024-07-20T20:00:50Z")
DSeid had significant followup and clarification in [538 is No Longer a Credible Source - #53 by DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/53). It’s unclear to me if you’re deliberately misunderstanding things in bad faith or honestly having trouble following (Whack-a-Mole managed it just fine!), but I do know that I’m not interested in engaging more. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/73 "2024-07-20T21:02:58Z")
It’s unclear to me if @DSeid is deliberately misunderstanding things in bad faith or honestly having trouble following @Gorsnak’s extremely straightforward post. I thought it would be better to seek clarification rather than make any assumptions. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/74 "2024-07-20T21:49:46Z")
I am completely befuddled by you here. Seriously and completely honestly. The, I thought straightforward, question is why working for a company that has an investor with non controlling interest (whose politics you hate) is “a bad look” and what your bare links are supposed to be about other than documenting that Silver has been hired as an advisor by an online gambling company that Thiel’s funds have invested in but do not control or manage? What unsaid thought is being implied is happening that would be bad? Is it seriously being suggested that a minority investor is exerting editorial control over what an hired advisor writes on their own non-affiliated site? Or that Silver is fudging his model to comply with the wishes of that minority investor of a different company he was hired to advise? It is a way to pay him off to publish a model result that is consistent with most other model results, and to pontificate the same thoughts a huge number of other pundits are expressing? Or just a claim that anyone who is in the political analysis business should not do any business with any company that has any investor with politics you dislike? Because that “looks bad” for … reasons? There is something that you apparently think is somehow self evident (or maybe not as all you did was drop bare links) but is not. I don’t see anything that looks bad. There. I have asked the same thing now in many more words. But really “Not sure what the implication is supposed to be?” was the essence. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/75 "2024-07-20T22:27:16Z")
Ah, so you knew what the implication was, but you disagree. That makes sense. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/76 "2024-07-20T22:28:04Z")
Goodness, I didn’t intend to provoke a furor. I thought the situation was noteworthy enough to be brought up. You will note that I, unlike many of the tweets about the matter, did not frame it as Silver being in the employ of Thiel. However, Thiel is one of the most odious people in the billionaire class, and being voluntarily associated even tangentially with odious people is apt to draw negative attention. I’m not myself feeling overly critical of Silver on this matter, though if I found myself in a similar circumstance I’d probably make a blog post somewhere distancing myself from Thiel. Unless he cannot do so without risking his employment, which would only confirm the misgivings people might have. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/77 "2024-07-20T22:50:29Z")
No. I did not know that. I _imagined_ that. If that was the implication then I would think a person making such a charge could state it, in its absurd conspiracy theory glory, in a straightforward manner, rather than with a wink a nudge. “Resolved: no one in the political analysis industry should have take any jobs for or gigs with a company that has a shareholder whose politics you hate.” Because it is a bad look. @Gorsnak the stuff you read is pretty much a JAQoff. “I’m not saying Silver is a paid off GOP operative, I’m just asking questions.” (“Make him deny it boys.”) If I was Silver I’d ignore stupid nonsensical shit that people say. A former CEO of my company quit to work for someone who is a spineless odious GOP politician. Others in major authority positions of my company I am confident support and donate to Trump. They have actual control over my working conditions. And? The logic gets McCarthyesque, guilt by vague and removed associations. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/78 "2024-07-20T22:58:39Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > No. I did not know that. @Gorsnak stated clearly that he thought association with Peter Thiel was a bad look. No winks. No nudges. You disagree with that. No big deal. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2024, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/80 "2024-07-21T12:33:39Z")
So back to 538 and it’s being so different. [Here’s](https://deadline.com/2023/05/abc-news-g-elliott-morris-data-analytics-fivethirtyeight-1235372062/amp/) ABC’s introduction of Morris and his plans for the site: > [@](#): > > … Looking to the challenges heading into the 2024 cycle, he said that “in the media, there’s questions about what the goals of statistical political analysis should be. Should we be focusing less on prediction and more on sort of how opinion polls are measuring public opinion and how we explain how voters are making decisions? That is something that I hope the teams here can answer and ultimately providing output over the next couple of years.” > > He added, “There’s also some questions of how polling even works,” noting that the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections have shown “that the way people answer polling has changed, if they answer polls at all, and that puts their reliability into question. The current models that FiveThirtyEight uses to aggregate those data were built roughly 15 years ago, and the polling industry has changed a lot since then. So the aggregation models should change, too. The question is how we do that. That’s something we are going to answer internally.” > > Morris noted that the use of election results percentage probabilities on their own is “just confusing for people,” … Clearly his intent was to build something completely different. One has to credit him with accomplishing that, minimally. It is different. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2024, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/81 "2024-07-22T14:45:13Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Clearly [_FiveThirtyEight’s_ Morris’] intent was to build something completely different. One has to credit him with accomplishing that, minimally. It is different. And now it’s got to be torn down and rebuilt – 538 took down their presidential election model shortly after Biden’s announcement and hasn’t put up anything in its place. Not even a quick blurb of a “_we’re taking a pause to collect data_” narrative. At one hand, completely understandable. On the other, pretty surprising IMHO. Wouldn’t think they’d want to be perceived as quite so flat-footed in today’s “_now now now_” media environment. Probably won’t matter in a week or so, though – one Morris gets something out, they’re back on the horse. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449.md?page=5)