# 538 is No Longer a Credible Source **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 19, 2024, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449 "2024-07-19T04:58:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2024, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/162 "2024-08-05T10:24:48Z")
Maybe it would help if you substituted “right” with “worth paying attention to” – and, that you compare a modeling team to others, rather than just looking at any one approach in a vacuum. 538/Silver’s 2016 model asserted that the probability of Trump winning was _much higher_ than what other major models were asserting. Trump went on to win that year. Therefore (especially after considering other, similar examples, like the 2022 midterms), as a first pass at least, the two “children” of that modeling team – Silver and 538 – are _worth paying attention to_. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2024, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/163 "2024-08-05T10:59:17Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > He said Hillary had a 60% chance of winning. I had a really amazing D&D character awhile back, a Hill Giant/Air Genasi cross. My PC was up against a Dragon/Yuan Ti cross. It was time for the final attack. I knew that if I rolled a 9 or higher on my attack, I’d win the fight. I said, “I’m probably gonna win,” and then I rolled a 3, and my Hill/Airy lost to the Duan Ti. I wasn’t wrong. That’s just how odds work. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2024, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/164 "2024-08-05T19:45:45Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Maybe it would help if you substituted “right” with “worth paying attention to” Why me? It was Thing.Fish who claimed the Silves predictions were “right”. Then he denied that they could be wrong, as he only gave a %. I was pointing out you can have it one way or the other. > [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > I wasn’t wrong. That’s just how odds work. Explain that to Thing.Fish. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/165 "2024-08-05T20:08:59Z")
Apropos of not much: 538 is eating Nate Silver’s dust right now. Seems really weird that Silver has put daily percentages on the general election since last week, while 538 is still silent since Biden’s step-down. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2024, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/166 "2024-08-05T20:17:06Z")
The bit I cited had taken the position that 538, representing ABC, was being conservative and less willing to commit. This is consistent with that. Wanting more data before running the model. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2024, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/167 "2024-08-05T20:19:19Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > while 538 is still silent since Biden’s step-down. They are not “silent”- they are still posting polls, just no predictions. > **[President: general election Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. and the most recent poll has Harris +4 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2024, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/168 "2024-08-05T20:26:14Z")
Just to be precise: forecast not prediction. The point made respectively here is the difference between the two. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2024, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/169 "2024-08-05T21:19:18Z")
I’ve found that these threads really point out who is and isn’t a gambler, any sort of tabletop gamer (RPGs, war games, whatever), XCOM player, sports fan, or similar. All of the above know that low probability events can and do happen with regularity. Especially when you only get one trial for the effect to resolve, trying to make some larger point on that one event is folly. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/170 "2024-08-06T14:23:41Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Just to be precise: forecast not prediction. The point made respectively here is the difference between the two. That does seem to be the wall that posters are smashing into headfirst. Repeatedly. Without good results. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/171 "2024-08-06T15:00:56Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > 538 is still silent since Biden’s step-down. Their official stance is that Harris wasn’t officially the nominee. I think they were just buying time. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/172 "2024-08-06T16:19:53Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > That does seem to be the wall that posters are smashing into headfirst. Repeatedly. Without good results. It’s fairly common. I recall seeing people struggle to understand the difference between “fortune telling” and “modeling” in climate change discussions. You could point them to pages in research where they modeled three different scenarios - here’s the case when CO2 increases at current rates, here’s if it lowers, here’s if there are a lot of volcanic eruptions, etc. - to try and help them understand that no one is trying to predict the future, that’s **not** what we’re looking at. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/173 "2024-08-06T23:46:43Z")
But we _are_ trying to predict the future. Just drawn as a well-informed sketch of the probable generalities, not e.g. precise rainfall distributions by county by week in the year 2060 or 2160. Lotta people just cannot (or more often will not) accept the reality of general thinking. Rule-based thinkers work bottom-up from fixed examples to rules. Science works top-down, from ideas to rules. Huge difference. ---
**Author:** ![Disinfectus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/disinfectus/32/11085_2.png) [@Disinfectus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Disinfectus)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2025, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/174 "2025-03-10T18:34:37Z")
For the record, the 538 website no longer exists. ABC just shut it down. All traffic now redirects to the ABC News site. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2025, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/175 "2025-03-10T18:57:34Z")
Jesus, 538 and Monmouth Polling shuttered in one week. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2025, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/176 "2025-03-10T19:46:13Z")
I heard about 538 and Monmouth, but what happened to Jesus?? ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2025, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/177 "2025-03-10T20:35:56Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > what happened to Jesus Cancelled. Too Woke. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2025, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/178 "2025-03-10T20:46:41Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > I heard about 538 and Monmouth, but what happened to Jesus?? He quit after one pole, I think. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2025, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/179 "2025-03-10T23:41:32Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > He quit after one pole Two, actually. In opposition to each other. But, they nailed it. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2025, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/180 "2025-03-10T23:52:52Z")
That gets more at the crux of it, I think ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2025, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449/181 "2025-03-11T00:00:59Z")
Geez guys, don’t leave me hanging here. Get to the point. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-no-longer-a-credible-source/1004449.md?page=10)