# 538 is now saying Biden has a Lock on it **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 8, 2020, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101 "2020-03-08T13:44:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/81 "2020-03-11T17:19:43Z")
HOW does Sanders best gain more power and influence for the movement from here? I’d WAG that going hard negative at this point, when it is clear he has no path left to winning, DECREASES power and the position of the movement within the party. Campaigning further in a unity mode, emphasizing the shared goals not only of defeating Trump, but of universal health coverage, decreased wealth inequality, addressing climate change, so on, advocating for his preferred approach but acknowledging that the goals are shared ones and in stark contrast to what Trump and the GOP is doing, keeps the issues as the priorities of all of the party. It, not tearing at the nominee, builds influence and keeps the voters that support him involved, to win more power from the ground up over midterms to come and beyond. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/82 "2020-03-11T17:23:34Z")
Surprised Trump or 3rd party groups or both have not gone after Biden in a major way yet. Maybe they feel it’s best to hold their fire until the Dem convention and after . ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/83 "2020-03-11T17:25:10Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yes, the idea that Biden is suffering from dementia or whatever is a rumor spread 100% by Bernie bros. It has no basis in truth. Based upon the same evidence, we could say bernie is senile- after all, he is older. People are speculating about his mental state because of his [bizarre](https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/10/11/joe-biden-lgbt-town-hall-bathhouse-gay-sex-cnn-democrat-twitter-viral/), [incoherent](https://www.vox.com/2020/2/10/21131327/biden-dog-faced-pony-soldier-new-hampshire) [rants](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/09/joe-biden-debate-answer.html), and how badly they compare to his performance even as recently as the end of Obama’s terms. Very obviously right-wing media is also attacking Biden over this. Trying to suggest it was all started by the bernie bros, let alone the implication that no-one would have any doubts about Biden’s cognition otherwise is beyond ludicrous. But I would see it this way: in this context, it doesn’t even matter whether he has dementia, or just has dreadful oratory and public interaction skill for some other reason. Either way it’s going to be a painful few months hoping he doesn’t completely put his foot in it. That’s not the way I want to feel going into an election. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/84 "2020-03-11T17:26:37Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Surprised Trump or 3rd party groups or both have not gone after Biden in a major way yet. Maybe they feel it’s best to hold their fire until the Dem convention and after . Some GOP senators are talking about Hunter Biden and Burisma again. I wouldn’t be surprised if right after the Dem Convention that Hunter gets a subpoena in order to derail and paint his father as corrupt. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/85 "2020-03-11T17:26:43Z")
the convention is still 4 months away so Biden has plenty of time to screw up or even have a big health issue. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/86 "2020-03-11T18:16:55Z")
I’d say 502 has the lock right now. ---
**Author:** ![TimfromNapa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/d26b3c/32.png) [@TimfromNapa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimfromNapa)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/87 "2020-03-11T20:48:55Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Sure, but who will Trump’s opponent be? Well said! ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/88 "2020-03-15T20:23:07Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > I agree with all of this. > > Those who realize the danger we are in if Trump continues in office, are able to put aside the self-centered desire to have a candidate we find to be perfect. I don’t find Biden to be perfect but that doesn’t stop me from seeing that he has a far greater chance than Sanders of beating Trump (and that as President he will be a massive improvement on Trump). > > This isn’t the time for toddleresque demands that the candidate “make us feel” any particular way (‘inspired’ or ‘heard’ or ‘empowered’ or whatever theory the Kremlin is pushing at the moment as a reason to avoid voting for the guy best able to win). > > This is a time to: > [ul] > [li]realize that a vote is a tool we use to get as close as possible to what we want, and[/li][li]put aside self-important demands that the DNC behave a certain way or that the candidate flatter and court us, and[/li][li]accept that making the perfect the enemy of the good is an extremely stupid strategy for getting through the challenges ahead.[/li][/ul] I had you pegged wrong. I didn’t think you would come around to this position until it was too late. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/89 "2020-03-15T20:55:40Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Do you have evidence of this? > > 10% of Sanders voters didn’t vote for Clinton (and a lot of that 10% were likely crossover voters who would never have voted for Clinton even if Sanders was not in the race). Compare that to 25% of Clinton voters not voting for Obama in 2008. > > Frankly, Sanders’ voters did well by Clinton. Sanders campaigned zealously for Clinton. On the other hand she pretty much tried to screw Sanders on this go. > > The weird thing you and others do on this board is you never, ever blame the ONLY person responsible for Clinton’s loss…and that is Clinton herself. Instead it is all “Bernie Bros” despite all evidence to the contrary. I have always blamed Hillary for her loss. But people always seem to try and make some excuse for her loss from sexism to the electoral college. > [@](#): > > Bottom line, Bernie didn’t lose anything for Clinton, he probably helped. Clinton sucked. She lost probably the easiest campaign to win in the history of political campaigns. She was the problem. But the party nominated her anyway and I think we are seeing it again with Biden who pretty much is Clinton 2.0 (frankly more a Beta version…I would much rather have Clinton than Biden). If Biden had run last time, he would have beaten Trump. He just couldn’t get past the Clinton machine. Biden has actual experience winning elections, Clinton has never won a competitive election. Biden isn’t running on identity politics like Clinton did. Biden doesn’t have the same limousine liberal aura that Clinton does. Biden doesn’t think he is headed towards a coronation. Anything can happen and it’s too early to blame Bernie for a Biden loss but we will have to wait and see if he (and his supporters) is part of the solution or part of the problem. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/90 "2020-03-15T20:58:51Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Ok, the biggest cause for Hillarys defeat was the Comey memo, according to 538. Then there was some poor strategic decisions by her campaign. BUT- the election was so damn close that yes, some experts think that Sanders voters staying home or voting 3rd party could have been a cause. But not the primary cause. The election was that close. > > Sanders did campaign for Hillary- but very late, he stayed in, even after mathematically he was done. As in like tonite. **Sanders should now concede= it’s over.** Sanders is barely winning Washington state even, now 34 to 30%. ☹ > > Sanders supporters- _among others-_ did enthusiastically pass on the Kremlin bots attacks on Hillary, that has been proven. In fact right now, his Bernie bros are attacking Biden on the fact Joe is mentally impaired, that’s the new thing. That does nothing but help trump. > > Get over this idea that “the party nominated her anyway”. "_The party"_ :rolleyes:had little to do with it, _it was the voters._ The idea that the DNC is so all powerful they can magically get FOUR Million more voters voting for Hillary in the Primaries but can’t magically get them in the general is nonsense. It’s the Schrödinger DNC-:eek: powerful enough to mentally command millions of voters to vote for Hillary but so weak they can’t do it again. > > It’s time for Sanders to man up, concede, and then ask his supporters to stop attacking Biden and get behind him. The DNC conspired and schemed to help Hillary and hurt Bernie. The “I’m with HER” crowd cheated to help Hillary. Maybe that wasn’t the difference in the general election but it’s pretty hard to support the winner if they cheated, even if they didn’t have to cheat to do it. or maybe its “especially if they didn’t have to cheat to do it” See Astros. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/91 "2020-03-15T22:26:43Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > No. > > If Sanders can still make Biden give concessions by staying in the race then Sanders should stay in the race. And thereby force him into positions that would make him less electable in the general election? > [@](#): > > Even when you are “out” of contention if you can still shape the political landscape there is value there. No. No there isn’t. Not if the goal is winning the general election rather than changing the platform of the losing party. > [@](#): > > Personally I really, really, really do not want Biden to get a free ride from here on out. Anything that can be done to modify Biden’s [colossally bad voting record](https://harpers.org/archive/2019/03/joe-biden-record/) is worthwhile in my view. What makes his voting record collosally bad? So he was against federally mandating busing. A policy so unpopular that noone does it anymore. > [@](#): > > And Biden might meltdown between now and the convention. Biden is known for his gaffes and he seems worse than ever lately (see SDMB discussions on whether Biden is suffering from dementia). What makes you think that one of the other moderate candidates won’t suddenly see a revival of their campaign if Biden blows up? Bloomberg can certainly swoop in at any moment. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/92 "2020-03-15T22:30:38Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > The DNC conspired and schemed to help Hillary and hurt Bernie. > The “I’m with HER” crowd cheated to help Hillary. > > Maybe that wasn’t the difference in the general election but it’s pretty hard to support the winner if they cheated, even if they didn’t have to cheat to do it. or maybe its “especially if they didn’t have to cheat to do it” See Astros. Gee, the DNC gave Hillary the questions to one Debate in advance. :eek::rolleyes: No “cheating”. Get over the “we wuz robbed”. The voters came out overwhelmingly for Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/93 "2020-03-15T22:31:22Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Some of us value beating Trump more than settling scores with other liberals or progressives, and thus I hope that Biden will take action to maximize the chances of ensuring Bernie supporters vote for him in the general election. I suspect that every Bernie voter you pick up in Swing states by pursuing Bernie supporters will alienate several swing voters in those states. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/94 "2020-03-15T22:38:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I doubt Bernie dropping out now would help at all. In 2016 Bernie started kind of slow but started doing better and better, even if he never got the majority. That doesn’t appear to be the case now – he started fast and is doing worse and worse. I think the best way to demonstrate that primary voters prefer Biden to Bernie is for Biden to earn his majority, contest by contest. Then Bernie endorses him, and hopefully Biden gives something to appeal to Bernie supporters (like a VP pick well-liked by Bernie supporters). Like it or not, Bernie supporters are a big chunk of voters, and especially important for the future of the party, and IMO it’s very important for the party to do everything it can to bring them in rather than blowing them off. Perhaps it would be a good idea for the primaries to run their course and for it to become clear that there is overwhelming support for Biden over Bernie. But I don’t think we give a damn thing to hostage takers. Either they want Trump out of office or they don’t. If you have to be bribed to support getting rid of Trump then you don’t deserve anything. Not a single goddam thing. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/95 "2020-03-15T22:44:56Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Perhaps it would be a good idea for the primaries to run their course and for it to become clear that there is overwhelming support for Biden over Bernie. > > But I don’t think we give a damn thing to hostage takers. Either they want Trump out of office or they don’t. If you have to be bribed to support getting rid of Trump then you don’t deserve anything. Not a single goddam thing. I care about beating trump about a million times more than any notion of “deserve”, in terms of “bribes” to political supporters (also known as “politics”). YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/96 "2020-03-15T22:50:15Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Well, now, I agree about her “likeability” factor. Don’t like her myself, but not necessarily due to her political stance. Not much different than her husband, and I like him, even if I don’t entirely trust him. > > However, let it be dully noted, she did win that utterly irrelevant part where more people actually voted for her. She had a 3 million popular vote majority. 5 million of that came California. If Trump had focused on winning the popular vote rather than the actual election, who knows what the popular vote would have been. That is why the popular vote count is relatively meaningless. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/97 "2020-03-15T22:53:07Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Gee, the DNC gave Hillary the questions to one Debate in advance. :eek::rolleyes: > > No “cheating”. > > Get over the “we wuz robbed”. The voters came out overwhelmingly for Clinton. You see where I said “Maybe that wasn’t the difference in the general election but it’s pretty hard to support the winner if they cheated, even if they didn’t have to cheat to do it. or maybe its “especially if they didn’t have to cheat to do it” See Astros.” Nobody wants to support the Astros and it may not be enough that they are playing the Yankees to get you to cheer for them. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/98 "2020-03-15T23:02:01Z")
Double Post ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/99 "2020-03-15T23:03:03Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I care about beating trump about a million times more than any notion of “deserve”, in terms of “bribes” to political supporters (also known as “politics”). YMMV. You’re the one telling us that we have to appease the Bernie Bros. The Millennials represent a minority of the Democratic party (and they will ALWAYS be a minority of the party). Yes we need them but we need the Boomers and Gen X just as much. We cannot let Millennials hold democracy hostage and coerce the rest of the party into pursuing a radical agenda. We don’t need them any more than they need us and if they want to play chicken with this election to coerce the party with a tyranny of the minority, then screw them. I don’t care if Biden picks Bloomberg as his VP candidate, either you want Trump out of office or there is wiggle room on that for you. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101/100 "2020-03-15T23:08:01Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I had you pegged wrong. > > I didn’t think you would come around to this position until it was too late. Say what? I’ve been posting this sort of thing since 2016, at least (from my post, quoted in yours) : > [@](#): > > … This is a time to: > realize that a vote is a tool we use to get as close as possible to what we want … You must be confusing me for someone else if you believe this position is something I’ve come to recently. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-is-now-saying-biden-has-a-lock-on-it/849101.md?page=6)