# 538 puts up Presidential election forecast **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 8, 2012, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551 "2012-06-08T20:41:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/1 "2012-06-08T20:41:38Z")
Nate has a long [post](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/election-forecast-obama-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/)explaining how the forecast is constructed (basically it uses polling data and economics indicators to run simulations)and there is a long side-bar with the detailed state-by-state breakdown from the forecast. I expect this will be the best resource about the state of the race right till the end so I thought it was worth starting a thread. Nothing too surprising about the current forecast; it’s a close race with a smallish edge for Obama. I find it mildly interesting that the forecast gives Obama a slightly higher chance of winning Virginia than Colorado. I don’t think the quality and frequency of the state-level polls is high enough as of now to take these numbers too seriously but they will undoubtedly improve as the race heats up. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/2 "2012-06-08T21:08:40Z")
Anyone know if visiting the site–fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com–counts against the quota or whatever limits the NYTimes places on non-paying subscribers? ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/3 "2012-06-08T21:16:13Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Anyone know if visiting the site–fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com–counts against the quota or whatever limits the NYTimes places on non-paying subscribers? It is. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/4 "2012-06-08T21:23:35Z")
Crap. That pretty much downgrades 538 discussion-wise. Plenty of people will likely still post and start conversations, but it won’t be the same as when there was free access. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/5 "2012-06-08T21:27:38Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Anyone know if visiting the site–fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com–counts against the quota or whatever limits the NYTimes places on non-paying subscribers? It does not count. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/6 "2012-06-08T21:44:19Z")
Okay, so here’s what we’re going to do. You and Shalmanese go over there and battle it out, while I run away from a hatchet-wielding Lantern for knocking his thread off course. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/7 "2012-06-08T21:45:54Z")
I’m a non-paying subscriber and I read 538 daily, sometimes clicking over to there multiple times a day looking for updates. I’ve never had to register or log-in to do so. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/8 "2012-06-08T22:46:59Z")
I just opened up a lot of posts on 538, and I eventually got the paywall message. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2012, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/9 "2012-06-08T23:55:47Z")
If I understand the paywall correctly, access to the _main_ page of NYT blogs is free and unlimited, but if you click on a comment thread or a cut, it counts as viewing an article. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/10 "2012-06-09T00:01:30Z")
Predictions at this point in the race are pretty much meaningless. I mean, you can predict things like “Obama will win New York” and “Romney will win Utah”, but it’s too early to say “Obama’s got a better chance of winning Virginia than Colorado based on the polling data”. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/11 "2012-06-09T00:07:33Z")
I knew Nate had drunk the NYT Flavor-Aid when I saw crap like _Mr._ Obama and _Mr._ Romney. He is dead to me. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/12 "2012-06-09T00:15:15Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Predictions at this point in the race are pretty much meaningless. I mean, you can predict things like “Obama will win New York” and “Romney will win Utah”, but it’s too early to say “Obama’s got a better chance of winning Virginia than Colorado based on the polling data”. I don’t pay any real attention to this stuff until after Labor Day. Enjoy your summer, folks! ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/13 "2012-06-09T00:28:33Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > I knew Nate had drunk the NYT Flavor-Aid when I saw crap like _Mr._ Obama and _Mr._ Romney. He is dead to me. I don’t think that’s drinking any kind of Flavor-Aid. He’s an employee of the NYT now and as such, he’s required to follow their editorial guidelines. And I guess I was wrong about 538 counting against your limit. I’ve just never personally had a problem with it but apparently I don’t open enough articles or read much else on the NYT site. ---
**Author:** ![Absolute](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b2d939/32.png) [@Absolute](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Absolute)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/14 "2012-06-09T00:48:53Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > I knew Nate had drunk the NYT Flavor-Aid when I saw crap like _Mr._ Obama and _Mr._ Romney. He is dead to me. I don’t get it. What exactly are you accusing him of? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/15 "2012-06-09T01:39:37Z")
> [@Absolute](#): > > I don’t get it. What exactly are you accusing him of? Selling out, man. He’s no longer “authentic”! ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/16 "2012-06-09T01:52:53Z")
Fuckin’ A. Fight the power! ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/17 "2012-06-09T07:37:21Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > I don’t think that’s drinking any kind of Flavor-Aid. He’s an employee of the NYT now and as such, he’s required to follow their editorial guidelines. The selling out would be becoming or remaining a NYT employee, I assume. Not that I understand the ire: being required to add a couple letters in front of a name is not something I would consider a moral issue. If it weren’t a joke, that is. ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/18 "2012-06-09T17:38:57Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Predictions at this point in the race are pretty much meaningless. I mean, you can predict things like “Obama will win New York” and “Romney will win Utah”, but it’s too early to say “Obama’s got a better chance of winning Virginia than Colorado based on the polling data”. Yep. This summer is going to consist of people talking while they wait for something to say. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/19 "2012-06-09T17:53:14Z")
**Bob Ducca** , **Absolute** , and **BigT**? That whoosh has turned into a freakin’ AIR SHOW! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2012, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551/20 "2012-06-09T18:09:53Z")
They should be formally referred to by their public honorifics: President Obama and Douchebag Romney. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-puts-up-presidential-election-forecast/624551.md?page=2)