# 538 Senate Model is out **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 12, 2018, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235 "2018-09-12T19:49:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/21 "2018-09-12T23:22:08Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Democrats gain seats by picking them up in more conservative states, so the more seats they get, the more likely they have Senators who will cross party lines and vote for a Republican nominee. You’ll get a good idea of how many seats they need to control by what the vote count is for Kavanaugh. I suspect they’ll need a solid 55 seat majority to make sure they can block future Trump SCOUTS nominees. 51 almost certainly won’t do the trick. Except the majority leader doesn’t have to schedule hearings or votes. One senator is enough, provided he or she is in the right position. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/22 "2018-09-12T23:25:46Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Democrats gain seats by picking them up in more conservative states, so the more seats they get, the more likely they have Senators who will cross party lines and vote for a Republican nominee. You’ll get a good idea of how many seats they need to control by what the vote count is for Kavanaugh. I suspect they’ll need a solid 55 seat majority to make sure they can block future Trump SCOUTS nominees. 51 almost certainly won’t do the trick. Wouldn’t they just need one vote (whoever is the new chair of the judiciary committee)? IIRC this is how the Republicans stopped Garland, with Grassley refusing to even hold hearings. The flip side is that Leahy, or whichever Democrat wins the chair of the senate judiciary committee, could do the same. The only way that would translate into needing 55 is if the red state Dems decide to vote out Leahy from his position as chair of the judiciary committee and install a Republican (Grassley again?), since I doubt that the whole Republican caucus would vote for a Dem for that position, even if it is a Joe Manchin or Claire McCaskill. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/23 "2018-09-12T23:27:04Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Stranger on a Train** : > > However, up to this point it has been a largely one-sided way. For the Democrats to adopt the tactics that Republicans have employed, especially in the Senate, would firmly establish an intractable position of obsteuctionism by whomever is in power. Barring extraordinary lack of qualification or some obvious deficiency, a candidate which is nominated should get a hearing, if for no other reason than to dispense with the argument of partisan obstructionism. It being one-sided just makes it worse. And yes, we do need a return to sanity in Supreme Court nominations, but at this point, the only way that’s happening is a Constitutional amendment. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/24 "2018-09-12T23:42:18Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > They won’t have to, but they will. Maybe not in the last year, but if they up the ante to 2 years, then it’s all out war and no Senate will ever confirm the SCOUTS nominee of a president from the opposite party. Republicans have an advantage in terms of winning the Senate and the Presidency, so if that becomes the norm, then Republicans will clean up. > > This is a game of chess, not tic tac toe. No, they won’t. The one surefire consequence of the Garland seat theft is that the Senate will _never_ again confirm an opposing president’s SCOTUS nominee. C’mon, now. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/25 "2018-09-12T23:42:46Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [Shortly before Philip of Macedon (Alexander’s father) invaded Laconia, he wrote a letter to the Spartans saying, “If I invade Laconia, I will drive you out.” The Spartans wrote a one-word letter back to Philip saying, “If.”](https://listverse.com/2016/08/03/10-amazing-facts-about-ancient-sparta/) Y’know, Twitter had a 10-character limit back in those days. It called for brevity. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/26 "2018-09-12T23:47:38Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Your implication would seem to be that Senate Republicans cannot be trusted to perform their duties faithfully. Personally, I am somewhat hopeful, but obviously we need an actual presentation of the evidence. Looking over the history of impeachment trials, Senators take their responsibility very seriously. Take Andrew Johnson’s trial. The Radical Republicans did everything to castrate his political power but it was clear that enough of them felt that “disparaging Congress” was not a high crime or misdemeanor and that the Tenure of Office Act did not apply to Johnson since his term started at Lincoln’s death and not March 4, 1865 that he was never in danger of being convicted. While it is true that he escaped conviction by one vote, there were quite a few that were willing to cast that deciding vote. Edmund Ross just happened to be the one fate picked to do it. The worst violators of not performing their duty were (IMO) the Senate Democrats that voted to acquit Bill Clinton claiming perjury is not an impeachable offense considering most of them voted to convict Judge Claiborne for perjury. That was pure politics.\* \*FTR: I am not including those who distinguished Claiborne’s perjury for filing false income taxes was different than perjury for lying under oath and consider the first a crime and the second not a crime for the purposes of impeachment. I disagree but I can see how they made that judgement independent of political party. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/27 "2018-09-12T23:49:28Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > They won’t have to, but they will. Maybe not in the last year, but if they up the ante to 2 years, then it’s all out war and no Senate will ever confirm the SCOUTS nominee of a president from the opposite party. Republicans have an advantage in terms of winning the Senate and the Presidency, so if that becomes the norm, then Republicans will clean up. > > This is a game of chess, not tic tac toe. I see no reason why the Democrats shouldn’t oppose every Republican nominee. There’s no hope the Republicans will ever consider a Democratic nominee in the near or medium term – it’d be incredibly foolish to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point. Especially when McConnell has shown that there are no consequences to not even considering a nominee. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/28 "2018-09-12T23:51:22Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > No, they won’t. The one surefire consequence of the Garland seat theft is that the Senate will _never_ again confirm an opposing president’s SCOTUS nominee. > > C’mon, now. I think some of you guys are confusing what you’d like the Democrats to do with what they will do. I could be wrong, but I don’t think they’ll declare all out war as some here are saying. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/29 "2018-09-12T23:58:15Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I think some of you guys are confusing what you’d like the Democrats to do with what they will do. I could be wrong, but I don’t think they’ll declare all out war as some here are saying. You might be right, but it’d be incredibly foolish not to. Nothing to gain, and lots to lose, by considering any Trump nominee for SCOTUS, from a Democratic perspective. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/30 "2018-09-13T00:51:28Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Do you predict that will happen? [Tell us what you predict.](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=847482) ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/31 "2018-09-13T01:08:15Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I think some of you guys are confusing what you’d like the Democrats to do with what they will do. I could be wrong, but I don’t think they’ll declare all out war as some here are saying. Without some dramatic change, I don’t see either party ever confirming a nominee from the opposite party ever again. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/32 "2018-09-13T01:12:52Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You might be right, I said I could be wrong, so please don’t contradict me. 🙂 > [@](#): > > but it’d be incredibly foolish not to. Nothing to gain, and lots to lose, by considering any Trump nominee for SCOTUS, from a Democratic perspective. And just to be clear, I thought the Republicans were making a political mistake by not holding a vote on Garland, so I admit to not being such a good prognosticator in this area. I do agree that if RBG retires or has to resign next year the Dems will be up against a rock and a hard place allowing that seat to be filled by a Trump appointee. If that comes to pass, there will be fireworks!! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/33 "2018-09-13T01:17:22Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I said I could be wrong, so please don’t contradict me. 🙂 > > And just to be clear, I thought the Republicans were making a political mistake by not holding a vote on Garland, so I admit to not being such a good prognosticator in this area. > > I do agree that if RBG retires or has to resign next year the Dems will be up against a rock and a hard place allowing that seat to be filled by a Trump appointee. If that comes to pass, there will be fireworks!! I think we’re past any possibility, at least in the medium term, for collegiality or bipartisanship for anything significant. Largely due to the actions of Republicans and conservatives, IMO, but of course most of them would say the opposite. Either way, the Democrats in the Senate have nothing to gain by giving the benefit of the doubt to Republicans on any significant issue, and a ton to lose. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/34 "2018-09-13T01:24:41Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think we’re past any possibility, at least in the medium term, for collegiality or bipartisanship for anything significant. Largely due to the actions of Republicans and conservatives, IMO, but of course most of them would say the opposite. Either way, the Democrats in the Senate have nothing to gain by giving the benefit of the doubt to Republicans on any significant issue, and a ton to lose. OK, but do you actually think they will have the spine to do it? I’m talking more about what will happen, not what should happen. Although, full disclosure, I don’t think 2 wrongs make a right. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/35 "2018-09-13T01:35:18Z")
Can’t a spine by donated and transplanted? By hammering it upwards into position and then repairing the damaged Nixon? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/36 "2018-09-13T01:57:17Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > OK, but do you actually think they will have the spine to do it? I’m talking more about what will happen, not what should happen. > > Although, full disclosure, I don’t think 2 wrongs make a right. I don’t know. I hope so. It would be the right thing to do. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/37 "2018-09-13T02:04:28Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > OK, but do you actually think they will have the spine to do it? I’m talking more about what will happen, not what should happen. > > Although, full disclosure, I don’t think 2 wrongs make a right. I don’t think two wrongs make a right, but is it wrong to take back something someone stole from you? I suspect that’s how many of the Democratic Senators will see it. I’m sure the Republicans will call them hypocrites, but I don’t think there’s anything inconsistent about the Democrats saying “Garland _should_ have gotten a confirmation vote, but in light of the fact that he _didn’t_, we should be able to block one of yours.” Of course, the Republicans will use that as an excuse to block the next one, but who’s to say they wouldn’t do that regardless? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/38 "2018-09-13T02:19:22Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > I don’t think two wrongs make a right, but is it wrong to take back something someone stole from you? There is no taking back the seat that Scalia vacated. But be that as it may, is it OK to prevent 1 Trump appointee from getting a vote, but not 2? The Dems can block the first appointee when they have a majority in the Senate, but not the second? ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/39 "2018-09-13T04:05:21Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > They won’t have to, but they will. Maybe not in the last year, but if they up the ante to 2 years, then it’s all out war and no Senate will ever confirm the SCOUTS nominee of a president from the opposite party. Republicans have an advantage in terms of winning the Senate and the Presidency, so if that becomes the norm, then Republicans will clean up. > > This is a game of chess, not tic tac toe. They’ll do it anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235/40 "2018-09-13T04:47:52Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > They won’t have to, but they will. Maybe not in the last year, but if they up the ante to 2 years, then it’s all out war and no Senate will ever confirm the SCOUTS nominee of a president from the opposite party. Republicans have an advantage in terms of winning the Senate and the Presidency, so if that becomes the norm, then Republicans will clean up. > > This is a game of chess, not tic tac toe. What you’re missing is that the Republican Party as it presently exists is fundamentally hostile to Constitutional democracy. It has to be, because its fundamental principles --racism and plutocracy – are deeply unpopular. If this party continues to exist as a major party in its current form, there is no “long run” to consider, because there won’t be any more elections. Which is why the SCOTUS confirmation battles don’t really matter, even if the Pubs manage to hold the Senate this year and Trump gets to appoint replacements for RBG and Breyer. It doesn’t matter because in 2021, Congress can pass by simple majority vote a law allowing President Sanders to appoint a half dozen new Justices. Yes, court packing is an extreme measure. It’s not something that happens in a healthy, functioning democracy, but sadly we don’t currently have one of those. It has happened before in American history, during the Federalist-Jeffersonian era and again during Reconstruction. Hopefully someday soon we can again live in a country where neither major political party poses an existential threat to democracy, and SCOTUS nominees can be evaluated on qualities other than partisan affiliation. We’re not there now, and wishfully pretending that we are is the worst course imaginable. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235.md?page=3)