# 538's House model has launched! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 16, 2018, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741 "2018-08-16T16:59:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/1 "2018-08-16T16:59:35Z")
> **[2018 House Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=538twitter)** > > FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 House elections We start out with a 75% chance of Democrats taking the House. Average gain in their models is +35. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/2 "2018-08-16T17:06:29Z")
Awesome! God I love Nate and his team. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/3 "2018-08-16T17:11:42Z")
This we agree on without reservation. I’m a little concerned about a 7.6 point popular vote advantage translating into only a 75% chance of taking the House. Fixing gerrymandering will help with that somewhat. I mean, I don’t want the Democrats to take the House, but if they win by 7 points they should have the House. If they win by 3 they should have the House. Under 3 I can chalk up to Republicans having a natural advantage due to concentration of Democratic voters. But it’s not good for democracy to have a wide difference between popular vote and apportionment. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/4 "2018-08-16T17:50:55Z")
**adaher** , I debated starting a thread for the 538 model when I posted about it in another thread. Thanks for starting this. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/5 "2018-08-16T17:51:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But it’s not good for democracy to have a wide difference between popular vote and apportionment. Hey, there’s a reason Republicans are so quick to stress that we have _A Republic, Not A Democracy_, and it isn’t just the name of their party. The less cautious ones go on to whine about how unfair it is that less-populated regions can’t swing elections and don’t have as much say in government as more-populated reasons, never quite grasping what exactly that sounds like to everyone else. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/6 "2018-08-16T18:13:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m a little concerned about a 7.6 point popular vote advantage translating into only a 75% chance of taking the House. Fixing gerrymandering will help with that somewhat. > > I mean, I don’t want the Democrats to take the House, but if they win by 7 points they should have the House. If they win by 3 they should have the House. Under 3 I can chalk up to Republicans having a natural advantage due to concentration of Democratic voters. I believe the 7.6% lead is a prediction that corresponds to the average predicted outcome (D winning ~208 seats). If Republicans win a majority, it will be because the D+ 7.6% prediction didn’t come true. The “75% chance of taking the house” includes the possibility of polls being inaccurate, of voters changing their minds between now and the election, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/7 "2018-08-16T18:35:38Z")
Nate is Tweeting a thread of races to watch right now. [Link](https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1030155150256566272') Haha. Rouda slightly favored over Rohrabacher. I would LOVE that. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/8 "2018-08-16T19:01:27Z")
My local guy–Mark Meadows, Mr. “Impeach Rosenstein”–has a \>99% chance of winning. Man, fuck that guy. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/9 "2018-08-16T19:35:06Z")
By my count the republicans have a 43 seat lead in the house. 236-196, with six vacant seats > **[Party Breakdown](https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown)** > > A breakdown of the parties in the U.S. House of Representatives > **[United States House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives)** > > Minority (213) > > The United States House of Representatives is the lower chamber of the United States Congress, with the Senate being the upper chamber. Together, they comprise the national bicameral legislature of the United States. So 38 seats changed to Democrats will not win them the house. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/10 "2018-08-16T19:48:26Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > By my count the republicans have a 43 seat lead in the house. 236-196, with six vacant seats > > [Party Breakdown | House Press Gallery](https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown) > > [United States House of Representatives - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) > > So 38 seats changed to Democrats will not win them the house. You’re probably going to want to re-think your math on this one. I’ll give you a formulaic hint: +1 = -1 I have confidence in you. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/11 "2018-08-16T19:56:43Z")
I remember the days long ago when Republicans were often viewed as the hard-nosed realists. Now, we have to contend with a Republican idea that a House with 236 Republicans and 234 Democrats is even _possible._ ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/12 "2018-08-16T19:59:14Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > By my count the republicans have a 43 seat lead in the house. 236-196, with six vacant seats > > [Party Breakdown | House Press Gallery](https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown) > > [United States House of Representatives - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) > > So 38 seats changed to Democrats will not win them the house. This is a joke post right? ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/13 "2018-08-16T20:07:02Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I remember the days long ago when Republicans were often viewed as the hard-nosed realists. That’s been a dodge, a piece of marketing, for decades. It serves them well whenever they make Tough Decisions which are, somehow, only tough on poor and middle-class people, especially since it allows them to paint things like gay rights, single-payer healthcare, and raising the top marginal tax rate as “soft-headed nonsense” without having to come up with any _real_ arguments against them which pass the laugh test. They made themselves out to be The Party Of Adults, and adults never have to explain themselves to anyone else. So shut up, vote Republican, and never question what President Adult does. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/14 "2018-08-16T20:08:42Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > By my count the republicans have a 43 seat lead in the house. 236-196, with six vacant seats > > [Party Breakdown | House Press Gallery](https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown) > > [United States House of Representatives - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) > > So 38 seats changed to Democrats will not win them the house. LOL. Arithmetic is hard. This is your funniest post yet! Well done! ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/15 "2018-08-16T20:52:14Z")
A quick check of my state’s 7 districts shows that Colorado could flip from 4R/3D to as many as 5D/2R, though it seems more likely to be 4D/3R. The three districts currently held by Democrats, including the 2nd, where I live and is the only open seat (Jared Polis is giving up the seat to run for governor), are rock solid. Mike Coffman in the 6th is the most vulnerable Republican here, with 538 giving him only a 3-in-8 chance of holding the seat. I think he’s not that bad, but I’m still rooting for him to lose. I am cautiously optimistic for November, but a 1-in-4 chance of the Republicans holding the House is not a **zero** chance of holding the House. I’d be pretty scared if I got a medical diagnosis with a 25% probability of death in the next year, is all I’m saying. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/16 "2018-08-16T21:00:26Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > LOL. Arithmetic is hard. > > This is your funniest post yet! Well done! Maybe this is like the 3 million illegal votes? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/17 "2018-08-16T21:22:36Z")
> [@RickG](#): > > A quick check of my state’s 7 districts shows that Colorado could flip from 4R/3D to as many as 5D/2R, though it seems more likely to be 4D/3R. The three districts currently held by Democrats, including the 2nd, where I live and is the only open seat (Jared Polis is giving up the seat to run for governor), are rock solid. > > Mike Coffman in the 6th is the most vulnerable Republican here, with 538 giving him only a 3-in-8 chance of holding the seat. I think he’s not that bad, but I’m still rooting for him to lose. > > I am cautiously optimistic for November, but a 1-in-4 chance of the Republicans holding the House is not a **zero** chance of holding the House. I’d be pretty scared if I got a medical diagnosis with a 25% probability of death in the next year, is all I’m saying. I work in Polis’s district and live in Perlmutter’s. Both are safe D even without Polis running. I knew Coffman was going to have a tough time and Jason Crow is a pretty good candidate. Army Ranger, combat veteran, lawyer, family man. I just learned today that Diane Mitsch Bush has a chance to unseat Scott Tipton, but I don’t know much about either candidate. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/18 "2018-08-16T21:40:51Z")
Good new article here [25 Districts That Could Decide The House In 2018 | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/25-districts-that-could-decide-the-house-in-2018/?ex_cid=2018-forecast) on likely “tipping-point” districts. Wealthy Midwestern suburbs seem to be over-represented. And, seeing those red and blue percentage-chance lines in that timeline graphic (“How the forecast has changed”) evoked extremely unpleasant memories of late night nailbiting two years ago (and of course the disaster at the end of the ordeal). ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/19 "2018-08-16T21:49:05Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > By my count the republicans have a 43 seat lead in the house. 236-196, with six vacant seats > > [Party Breakdown | House Press Gallery](https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown) > > [United States House of Representatives - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) > > So 38 seats changed to Democrats will not win them the house. 236-38=198 Rs 196+38=234 Ds 234\>198 Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741/20 "2018-08-16T23:48:32Z")
The day before the presidential election, I remember seeing over 78% for a Hillary win. Just sayin’… > **[2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)** > > Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-house-model-has-launched/819741.md?page=2)