# 538's %'s vs everybody else's "Tossup" rating

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-s-vs-everybody-elses-tossup-rating/634637>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [September 13, 2012, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-s-vs-everybody-elses-tossup-rating/634637 "2012-09-13T22:37:41Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 2\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![theR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/977dab/32.png) [@theR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/theR)\
**Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-s-vs-everybody-elses-tossup-rating/634637/41 "2012-09-15T15:03:58Z")

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> [@RickJay](#):
>
> 2 trumps 1.
> 
> The reason Silver is respected is **because he was absolutely bang on in 2008.** His predictions were BY FAR the most accurate of any mainstream prediction. He nailed pretty much every state within a tiny range of error and predicted every Senate race, and that was after utterly demolishing the established talking heads in predicting primary results. He is respected because he is correct and nobody’s ever shown why he isn’t correct now.

Wasn’t Sam Wang and Princeton Election Consortium actually more accurate for electoral votes? However, Silver does a lot more than just predict the presidential election. Here is a discussion on intrade comparing the two. [http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/494002.page](http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/494002.page)

And here is the PEC site itself. [http://election.princeton.edu/](http://election.princeton.edu/)

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**Author:** ![Untoward\_Parable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/51bf81/32.png) [@Untoward\_Parable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Untoward_Parable)\
**Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538s-s-vs-everybody-elses-tossup-rating/634637/42 "2012-09-15T20:33:47Z")

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Some people haven’t looked it up or had it explained to them, others just don’t want to accept reality. Poor whites in the US have been sticking their heads in the sand for so long they’re starting to look like mole people. It’s not your church and business leaders holding the keys to your potential, it’s minorities working and people having a good time that’s causing it. You are totally a superior human being who would succeed exceptionally well if the government would just leave you alone, no matter how much of a failure you are in the actual world in the actual species where social adaptations are primary to all advantages we hold.

Yep, it’s a tossup, people aren’t embarrassed by people who think like you at all.

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