# 6 billion? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 13, 1999, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312 "1999-10-13T00:02:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Phaedrus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@Phaedrus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phaedrus)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 1999, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/181 "1999-11-09T08:23:00Z")
64,974,748,284,874,298,473,628,964,836,637 or thereabouts. šŸ˜‰ ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 1999, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/182 "1999-11-09T12:16:00Z")
dhanson, Who, or what, is the Club of Rome? I think the UNā€™s predictions have been notoriously low. Do you believe the US Census Bureauā€™s predictions? * * * ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 1999, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/183 "1999-11-09T14:23:00Z")
Aaaaargrrgghhh! I hate being sucked into this mess. > [@](#): > > I think the UNā€™s predictions have been notoriously low. Which, of course, is why they have constantly had to be revised **downward**! Have you ever in your life actually read any of the messages to which you respond? If the U.N. estimates future populations and they continually have to change those estimates by _lowering_ the numbers as they get closer to the target dates, that clearly indicates that they _over_estimated the populations. Their estimates are notoriously too high, not too low. * * * Tom~ ---
**Author:** ![tracer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tracer/32/20578_2.png) [@tracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tracer)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/184 "1999-11-10T06:52:00Z")
John John wrote in the OP: > [@](#): > > In just one decade we went from 5 to 6 billion people on the planet. John John later quoted the U.S. Census Bureauā€™s 1996 world population profile as stating: > [@](#): > > These projections also show world population reaching a level of 7.6 billion persons over the next quarter century So, according to your own data, the rate of population increase over the last 10 years was 2.00% per year, while the projected rate of population increase over the next 25 years will be 1.07% per year. Sounds like good news to me! * * * Quick-N-Dirty Aviation: Trading altitude for airspeed since 1992. ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 1999, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/185 "1999-11-09T23:23:00Z")
tom > [@](#): > > Which, of course, is why they have constantly had to be revised downward Thomas, you are sooooooo challenged. UN has faulty data and underestimates population. You need to rely on more accurate information, as provided by Sierra Club, Greenpeace, ZPG, Population Council, to name a few. * * * ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 1999, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/186 "1999-11-09T23:34:00Z")
## quote: ## These projections also show world population reaching a level of 7.6 billion persons over the next quarter century So, according to your own data, the rate of population increase over the last 10 years was 2.00% per year, while the projected rate of population increase over the next 25 years will be 1.07% per year. Sounds like good news to me!]]tracer Going from 6 billion to 7,6 billion in 25 years sounds like good news to you? Adding 1.6 billion more people in just 25 years is good? Thatā€™s like say, ā€œthe bad news is your gonna die but the good news is you have one year to live.ā€ * * * ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille ---
**Author:** ![manhattan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/manhattan/32/7_2.png) [@manhattan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/manhattan)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 1999, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/187 "1999-11-09T23:56:00Z")
Before I begin, **John John** know that accusing anyone of living in L.A. is a flame of the worst order. Take it to the Pit, please. šŸ˜‰ All right. Because you obviously wonā€™t listen to actual facts, preferring to listen to political groupsā€™ misinterpretation of those facts, and because Iā€™m concerned that the learned heads of **dhanson** and \*_Akatsukami_ and others are about to explode, I declare the right to **hijack** to this thread. Your most recent theory regarding the UNā€™s alleged bias in population studies is pure claptrap, since the UN insists on spending megabucks on population measures despite the findings of their very own scientists. Which segues nicely into my hijacking. There are essentially two things behind the modern ā€œpopulation controlā€ movement. The first is the desire of corrupt governments to receive foreign dollars, which said governments can redirect for their own nefarious purposes. The other is racism. Thatā€™s right, you read correctly. The rich white populace of the world running around telling the poor black and brown people in the world that the Big Problem[sup]TM[/sup] is that they are having too many babies is _racist_. The fact that the motivation is not bigotry, but rather a different kind of ignorance entirely, does not make the proposed polices any less racist in outcome. So rather than blathering on about how we should be telling the poor people of the world just how many babies is the correct amount for them (I presume that this is your population control prescriptive, as opposed to actually killing people), why donā€™t you spend some time trying to devise ways in which some of these new poor people might become new rich people, with increasing access to the bounties that this earth and its resourceful people make available to you and me? Here, Iā€™ll start you off. First, instead of less immigration, the rich countries of the world (the U.S. first and foremost) should have more. And not just professors and programmers and professional athletes, either, but cab drivers and dishwashers and accountants and machinists and students and chefs. Second, the rich free countries of the world (again, the U.S. first) should do more to ensure the spread of the freedom and capitalism that have allowed us to prosper. That means no more supporting evil regimes, no more loaning money to ā€œfriendsā€ like Indonesia and Singapore that suppress dissent, no more ā€œcrony capitalismā€ to bail out fiscally irresponsible governments like Brazil. I trust you can pick up from there. Best of luck. * * * [http://www.straightdope.com/ubb/Forum5/HTML/000361.html](http://www.straightdope.com/ubb/Forum5/HTML/000361.html) ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/188 "1999-11-10T00:14:00Z")
* * * Manhattan > [@](#): > > Before I begin, John Johnknow that accusing anyone of living in L.A. is a flame of the worst order. Take it to the Pit, please. ## I guess I lost my head. ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille ---
**Author:** ![Akatsukami](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ea666f/32.png) [@Akatsukami](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akatsukami)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/189 "1999-11-10T01:17:00Z")
John John writes: > [@](#): > > Thomas, you are sooooooo challenged. UN has faulty data and underestimates population. You need to rely on more accurate information, as provided by Sierra Club, Greenpeace, ZPG, Population Council, to name a few. And they get _their_ population data fromā€¦? * * * ā€œKings die, and leave their crowns to their sons. Shmuel HaKatan took all the treasures in the world, and went away.ā€ ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/190 "1999-11-10T01:47:00Z")
akats > [@](#): > > And they get their population data fromā€¦? Andorra United Arab Emirates Afghanastan Antigua and Barbuda Anguilla Albania Armenia Netherlands Antilles Angola Argentina Ascension Island American Samoa Austria Aruba Azerbajan bosnia Barbados Bangladesh Belgium Burkina Faso Bulgaria Bahrain Burundi Benin Bermuda Brunei Brunei Darussalam Bolivia Brazil Bahamas Bhutan Belarus Bouvet Island Botswana Byelorussian SSR Belize Cocos (Keeling) Islands Central African Republic Congo Cantons of Helvetia Confederation Helvetique Switzerland Cote Dā€™Ivoire Cook Islands Chile Cameroon China Colombia Commercial Organization Costa Rica Czechoslovakia Cuba Cape Verde Christmas Island Cyprus Czech Republic Deutschland Germany Djibouti Denmark Dominica Dominican Republic Algeria Ecuador Educational Institution Eslovaquia Estonia Egypt Western Sahara Spain Ethiopia Finland Fiji Falkland Islands Malvinas Micronesia Faroe Islands France Gabon Great Britain Grenada Georgia French Guiana Guernsey Islands (inc Alderney, Sark and Brethou Islands) Ghana Gibraltar Greenland Gambia Guinea Government Guadeloupe Equatorial Guniea Greece Guatemala Guam Guinea Bissau Gyana Hong Kong Heard and McDonald Islands Honduras Croatia Hrvatska Haiti Hungary Indonesia Ireland Israel The Isle of Man India British Indian Ocean Territory Iraq Iran Iceland Italy Jersey Island Jamaica Jordan Japan Kenya Kyrgyzstan Cambodia Kiribati Comoros Saint Kitts and Nevis Korea - Democratic Peopleā€™s Republic of North Korea Korea - Republic of South Korea Kuwait Cayman Islands Kazakhstan Lao Lao Peoplesā€™ Democratic Republic Laos Lebanon Saint Lucia Liechtenstein Sri Lanka Liberia Lesotho Letonia Lithuania Luxembourg Latvia Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Lybia Morocco Monaco Moldova Madagascar Marshall Islands Military Macedonia Mali Myanmar Mongolia Macau Northern Mariana Islands Martinique Mauritania Montserrat Malta Maldives Mauritius Malawi Mexico Malaysia Mozambique Namibia New Caledonia Niger Networking Organisation Norfolk Island Nigeria Nicaragua Netherlands Norway Nepal Nauru Neutral Zone Niue New Zealand om org Oman Non-profit Organization Panama Peru French Polynesia New Guinea Papua Papua New Guinea Philippines Pakistan Poland Saint Pierre and Miquelon Pitcairn Puerto Rico Portugal Palau Paraguay Qatar Reunion Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Saudi Arabia Solomon Islands Seychelles Sudan Sweden Singapore Saint Helena Slovenia Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands Slovakia Sierra Leone San Marino Senegal Somalia Suriname Sao Tome and Principe Soviet Union U.S.S.R. El Salvador Syria Syrian Arab Republic Swaziland Turks and Caicos Islands Chad French Southern Territories Togo Thailand Tajikistan Tokelau Turkmenistan Tunisia Tonga East Timor Turkey Trinidad and Tobago Tuvalu Taiwan Tanzania uz Ukraine Uganda United Kingdom United States Minor Outlying Islands United States United States of America Uruguay Uzbekistan Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Venezuela Virgin Islands (UK) Virgin Islands (US) Vietnam Vanuatu Wallis and Futuna Islands Samoa Yemen Zuid Africa/South Africa Zambia Zaire/Democratic Republic of Conga Zimbabwe * * * ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/191 "1999-11-10T02:01:00Z")
Akatsukasmi, one thing you all fail to grasp when you quote declining birth rates is, billions more people will be have the projected 2.5 births instead of few numbers having 3, 4. If 4 million people have 4 births with high mortality rate, as opposed to 7 million having 2.5 births with decreased mortality rate, which will be the greater number? Get fresh batteries. Are you anywhere near Southberry,Woodbury Ct? * * * ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille ---
**Author:** ![MarkSerlin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/cc9497/32.png) [@MarkSerlin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarkSerlin)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/192 "1999-11-10T06:01:00Z")
In just one decade we went from 5 to 6 billion people on the planet. What is the limit that this planet can sustain without degredation to the environment? * * * 250 million. Humans donā€™t react very well when they are jammed in among each other. * * * Mark ā€œThink of it as Evolution in action.ā€ ---
**Author:** ![Akatsukami](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ea666f/32.png) [@Akatsukami](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akatsukami)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/193 "1999-11-10T12:16:00Z")
Gee, **John John** , that list looks an awful lot like the list of member nations of the U.N. So, are you saying that the Sierra Club, _et al._ take the same data that the U.N. does, and throw out the parts that they donā€™t like, or that they somehow have a different source of data from these nations? As for declining fertility rates, _you_ seem to have not grasped the fact (perhaps because the Sierra Club darenā€™t admit it) that fertility rates are dropping _through_ the replacement rate, and, contrary to the U.N.ā€˜s previous and Bongaartsā€™ current beliefs, arenā€™t rebounding. As for your little arithmetic conundrum: > [@](#): > > If 4 million people have 4 births with high mortality rate, as opposed to 7 million having 2.5 births with decreased mortality rate, which will be the greater number? it depends on the mortality rates; Iā€™ll have to re-read the IIASA studies to decide what the use of ā€œhighā€ vs. ā€œlowā€ mortality is. Since weā€™re doing these arithmetic puzzles, what will result in the higher population in 2100: 6 million people whose crude birth rate drops from 2.5 to 1.5 in that period, or 6 million people whose crude birth rate stays at 2.2? Iā€™m not particularly near Southbury now, BTW, but I will be in a couple of hours. Mark Serlin writes: > [@](#): > > Humans donā€™t react very well when they are jammed in among each other. Which, of course, explains why the Netherlands is in a constant state of bloody, internecine gang warfare. We must get Coldfire to drop by here and regale us with tales of the atrocities committed in that conflict. * * * ā€œKings die, and leave their crowns to their sons. Shmuel HaKatan took all the treasures in the world, and went away.ā€ ---
**Author:** ![divemaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/divemaster/32/78_2.png) [@divemaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/divemaster)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/194 "1999-11-10T14:24:00Z")
John-John says: > [@](#): > > You need to rely on more accurate information, as provided by Sierra Club, Greenpeace, ZPG, Population Council, to name a few. This would be laughable if it werenā€™t so scary. These should be the **last** organizations one should trust for objective, unbiased findings. The more politicized an organization is, the more there is a chance for bias. This goes for left-wing, right-wing, green-wing, whatever. Groups with a ā€˜causeā€™ depend on a wide political base (votes and money) in order to propagate their message and implement their ideas. This in itself is not a bad thing. There are all sorts of causes with varying degrees of nobility (depending on whose opinion you listen to). We expect this from politicians, activists, concerned citizens, etcā€¦ Again, Iā€™m not saying this is bad. The nefarious part is when political groups try to disguise themselves as scientific and unbiased. Unsuspecting people may actually believe that the groups mentioned above are apolitical or objective. _They are not._ They have a definite agenda, and surprise, surprise, the only findings they cite will support their cause. Imagine that. Itā€™s bad enough when the bias comes in the _interpretation_ of research results or statistical findings; but when the actual results/findings are jimmied or ignored, well, all credibility is lost. The organizations listed above have **zero** credibility in my book, not because of their general intentions, but because of their ā€˜propagate the message at all costsā€™ mentality, which requires that the message look a certain way, regardless of reality. John-John, here is a challenge to you. Provide me a few citations for **original research** funded by one of the groups you mentioned and published in a widely-accepted, **peer-reviewed** , scientific publication such as _Science_, _Nature_, _Ecology_, _Ecological Monographs_, _Marine biology_, _American Naturalist_, _Coepia_, _JEMBE_, _Limnology and Oceanography_, to name a few. I realize I run the risk of hijacking this thread into biology rather than population growth, but that is my area. Maybe we can proceed along parallel thought lines. You demographers may want to add other publications pertinent to your specialty. Articles published in lay magazines do not count for this challenge, nor do _interpretations_ of other peopleā€™s research. And **do not** merely post a list of articles you happen to agree with. Iā€™m already accusing you of selective perception and the interpretive twisting of the research of others; you donā€™t need to embarass yourself further by reinforcing that image. ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/195 "1999-11-10T23:32:00Z")
drivemaster > [@](#): > > The more politicized an organization is, the more there is a chance for bias. This goes for left-wing, right-wing, green-wing, whatever Which is why I discount the UN and some of their findings on this matter. Very Third World, Left Wing. Iā€™ll try to drop a line to the organizations and see if theyā€™ll provide me with what youā€™ve asked. * * * ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 1999, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/196 "1999-11-10T23:48:00Z")
Drive, Iā€™ve just sent off three emails to get the info you requested. If Iā€™m able to Iā€™ll post what they send me, although I already know that you will disparage them when, and if, they do not agree with your view. * * * ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille ---
**Author:** ![jab1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ee7513/32.png) [@jab1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jab1)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 1999, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/197 "1999-11-11T01:36:00Z")
Another list of countries. I think \*\* John John\*\* is just trying to see how long he can make this thread go. Maybe this post will start Page Five? * * * Those who do not learn from the past are condemned to relive it. Georges Santayana ---
**Author:** ![SterlingNorth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@SterlingNorth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SterlingNorth)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 1999, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/198 "1999-11-11T02:04:00Z")
> [@](#): > > Which is why I discount the UN and some of their findings on this matter. Very Third World, Left Wing. Yeah, thatā€™s right, John. The UN bases its whole operating philosophy on inflating the population for nefarious purposes. Quick, John you must alert the authorities!!! [sorry jab1, still page 4] ---
**Author:** ![SterlingNorth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@SterlingNorth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SterlingNorth)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 1999, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/199 "1999-11-11T02:17:00Z")
> [@](#): > > very Third World, Left Wing The UN? _ **left wing** _? compared with the Sierra Club and Greenpeace??? youā€™re kidding, right? [still page 4] ---
**Author:** ![John\_John](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8797f3/32.png) [@John\_John](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_John)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 1999, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312/200 "1999-11-11T02:57:00Z")
SterlingNorth > [@](#): > > youā€™re kidding, right? > > [still page 4] šŸ™‚ ## Go west, young man. ā€œAll rising to a great place is by a winding stair.ā€ F.Bacon Brille [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/6-billion/17312.md?page=11)