6 billion?

dhanson

No, actually, what I found was that the UN, and you, were misinterpreting the data. You have also misstated what has transpired in this thread. I have refuted your Pollyanna worldview with data supplied by the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, UN, World Population Council, ZPG and others. You have ignored them, or ridiculed them as the products of “zealots.” They are not the fruits of zealots but of REALISTS. You will not accept my proffer because the reality of the data is unsettling. That is not a good way to treat the problem, which your side has admitted exists.
Five facets of a myth


By Kirkpatrick Sale


I can remember vividly sitting at the dinner table arguing with my father about progress, using upon him all the experience and wisdom I had gathered at the age of fifteen. “Of course we live in an era of progress,” I said, “just look at cars – how clumsy and unreliable and slow they were in the old days, how sleek and efficient and speedy they are now.”

He raised an eyebrow, just a little. “And what has been the result of having all these wonderful new sleek and efficient and speedy cars?” he asked. I was taken aback. I searched for a way to answer.

He went on. “How many people die each year as a result of these speedy cars, how many are maimed and crippled? What is life like for the people who produce them, on those famous assembly lines, the same routinized job hour after hour, day after day, like Chaplin’s film? How many fields and forests and even towns and villages have been paved over so that these cars can get to all the places they want to get to – and park there? Where does all the gasoline come from, and at what cost, and what happens when we burn it and exhaust it?”

Before I could stammer out a response – thankfully – he went on to tell me about an article written on the subject of progress, a concept I had never really thought of, by one of his Cornell colleagues, the historian Carl Becker, a man I had never heard of, in the Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, a resource I had never come across. Read it, he said.

I’m afraid it was another fifteen years before I did, though in the meantime I came to learn the wisdom of my father’s skepticism as the modern world repeatedly threw up other examples of invention and advancement – television, electric carving knife, microwave oven, nuclear power – that showed the same problematic nature of progress, taken in the round and negatives factored in, as did the automobile.

When I finally got to Becker’s masterful essay, in the course of a wholesale re-examination of modernity, it took no scholarly armament of his to convince me of the peculiar historical provenance of the concept of progress and its status not as an inevitability, a force as given as gravity as my youthful self imagined, but as a cultural construct invented for all practical purposes in the Renaissance and advancing the propaganda of capitalism.

It was nothing more than a serviceable myth, a deeply held unexamined construct – like all useful cultural myths – that promoted the idea of regular and eternal improvement of the human condition, largely through the exploitation of nature and the acquisition of material goods.

Of course by now it is no longer such an arcane perception. Many fifteen-year-olds today, seeing clearly the perils with which modern technology has accompanied its progress, some of which threaten the very continuance of the human species, have already worked out for themselves what’s wrong with the myth.

It is hard to learn that forests are being cut down at the rate of 56 million acres a year, that desertification threatens 8 billion acres of land worldwide, that all of the world’s seventeen major fisheries are in decline and stand a decade away from virtual exhaustion, that 26 million tons of topsoil is lost to erosion and pollution every year, and believe that this world’s economic system, whose functioning exacts this price, is headed in the right direction and that direction should be labeled “progress”.

E.E. Cummings once called progress a “comfortable disease” of modern “manunkind,” and so it has been for some. But at any time since the triumph of capitalism only a minority of the world’s population could be said to be really living in comfort, and that comfort, continuously threatened, is achieved at considerable expense.

Today of the approximately 6 billion people in the world, it is estimated that at least a billion live in abject poverty, lives cruel, empty, and mercifully short. Another 2 billion eke out life on a bare subsistence level, usually sustained only by one or another starch, the majority without potable drinking water or sanitary toilets. More than 2 million more live at the bottom edges of the money economy but with incomes less than $5,000 a year and no property or savings, no net worth to pass on to their children.

That leaves less than a billion people who even come close to struggling for lives of comfort, with jobs and salaries of some regularity, and a quite small minority at the top of that scale who could really be said to have achieved comfortable lives; in the world, some 350 people can be considered (U.S. dollar) billionaires (with slightly more than 3 million millionaires), and their total net worth is estimated to exceed that of 45 per cent of the world’s population.

This is progress? A disease such a small number can catch? And with such inequity, such imbalance?

In the U.S., the most materially advanced nation in the world and long the most ardent champion of the notion of progress, some 40 million people live below the official poverty line and another 20 million or so below the line adjusted for real costs; 6 million or so are unemployed, more than 30 million said to be too discouraged to look for work, and 45 million are in “disposable” jobs, temporary and part-time, without benefits or security.

The top 5 percent of the population owns about two-thirds of the total wealth; 60 percent own no tangible assets or are in debt; in terms of income, the top 20 percent earn half the total income, the bottom 20 percent less than 4 percent of it.

All this hardly suggests the sort of material comfort progress is assumed to have provided. Certainly many in the U.S. and throughout the industrial world live at levels of wealth undreamed of in ages past, able to call forth hundreds of servant-equivalents at the flip of a switch or turn of a key, and probably a third of this “first world” population could be said to have lives of a certain amount of ease and convenience.

Yet it is a statistical fact that it is just this segment that most acutely suffers from the true “comfortable disease,” what I would call affluenza: heart disease, stress, overwork, family dysfunction, alcoholism, insecurity, anomie, psychosis, loneliness, impotence, alienation, consumerism, and coldness of heart.

Leopold Kohr, the Austrian economist whose seminal work, The Breakdown of Nations, is an essential tool for understanding the failures of political progress in the last half-millennium, often used to close his lectures with this analogy:

Suppose we are on a progress-train, he said, running full speed ahead in the approved manner, fueled by the rapacious growth and resource depletion and cheered on by highly rewarded economists. What if we then discover that we are headed for a precipitous fall to a certain disaster just a few miles ahead when the tracks end at an uncrossable gulf?

Do we take advice of the economists to

Doubting Tom

What is Tommy really saying? He’s saying, inspite of the hard evidence I’ve seen Brille produce, I will not accept it as fact because I feel more comfortable with my delusions. Tom, you either accept that 1 billion people in a decade - 10 yrs - is a problem, which your side admits, because the world was not prepared for it, or you join the thousands like your self who are groping in the dark and adding to the problem. Which will you be?

It has been shown to you in many ways that the planet will suffer with billions more people and you still persist in your ignorance. Even your exalted UN predicts billions more in the short years to come. Why you are blocked on this score is anyone guess. I think you need to acquaint yourself with the real facts and stop stumbling along in the dark.

Yes, bow out with dhanson because your “data” has been shown to be incorrectly evaluated.


“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

Can I hear an “AMEN!”???
<center>
<H1>AMEN!!</H1>
</center>


dhanson

I hear the patter of feet beating a hasty retreat.


“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

No, Cyb, you initially posted that the world was in danger of overpopulation to the point where it could not supporet human life.
That point has been refuted with all the actual evidence that has been supplied.

You have now changed your position (denying that you have, of course) to say that people are suffering from overcrowding. today.

A) No one has denied that people are hurting now.
B) The point has been made that (at the least as a percent of population), fewer people are suffering due to famine and other problems that are associated with overpopulation today than there were when the population was half its current size.
C) The point has been well-established that the way to reduce the current suffering and any future suffering is to make sure that the world economy (and all of its divers parts) work at maximum efficiency to provide goods to people. (I forget his name, but an Indian economist recently won a Nobel for establishing the underlying rules that ensure that famine will not occur in a capitalist/democratic society.)
D) You have been asked on several posts to put forth a plan of action.
Your response (while lacking substance, as always) has basically amounted to an incoherent call that we white folks should shut our doors to keep out the undeserving furriners while ordering all those non-white people to stop breeding.

This is not a retreat, this is calmly shutting the padded door and walking away.


Tom~

John John copied-and-pasted:

Hmmm … so this article claims that progress is a short-term illusion and is bad for everybody in the long run, but then goes on to complain about how bad people’s lives are by saying that some are “without potable drinking water or sanitary toilets” and that others have “incomes less than $5,000 a year and no property or savings”.

Potable water, sanitary toilets, and monetary savings are all things created by progress in the first place!

Tom

Nope, Tom, no change. People are suffering today and will suffer more in the future, if trends continue. Comprehenson, Tom. Try to follow along and stop misstating the facts.

Chapter 1
World Population: Major Trends

World population will grow significantly - despite falling fertility.

There is a most striking paradox in global population trends: on one hand we have had a rapid decline in fertility for over two decades in many developing countries - not to mention the already very low fertility in most of the highly developed nations; on the other hand we will almost certainly experience a further massive increase of the world population. In their most recent projection (“World Population Assessment and Projection. The 1996 edition”) the United Nations Population Division projects a global population of 8.04 billion for the year 2025 and 9.37 billion for 2050 (see Figure C1_1 and Table C1_1). According to this medium variant, an increase of some 2.35 billion people can be expected worldwide between 1995 and 2025; and an additional 1.3 billion between 2025 and 2050.
These numbers are a little smaller than previous UN estimates, leading some mass media to jump to the conclusion that world population growth will be over soon. This rash judgment might be premature. This UN medium variant projection is based on the assumption that almost all countries worldwide will have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of only 2.1 in 2050 at the latest (only for 10, mostly European countries, the UN assumes a TFR in 2050 that is a little less - between 1.84 and 2.1). This assumption would require a further steep fertility decline in many developing nations - especially in Pakistan, Nigeria, Iran or India, where the Total Fertility Rates are still far above the reproductive level of 2.1 children per woman. According to the most recent UN estimates, Pakistan for instance, currently has a TFR of about 5 children per woman - the medium variant projection assumes that it will drop to 2.1 during the next 25 years. In other words, we will only have a world population of about 9.4 billion by 2050, if the Total Fertility Rate, measured as a global average, declines from about 3.0 in 1990-95 to the reproductive level of 2.1 children per woman in 2035-40.

Obviously, there is no guarantee that this will happen. There could be a much higher increase in world population, as indicated by the “high” variant UN projection: If worldwide fertility would drop to only about 2.6 children per woman (instead of 2.1 as assumed in the medium variant), we would have a global population of some 8.6 billion by 2025 and 11.2 billion by 2050. This would be equivalent to a 2.89 billion increase between 1995 and 2025 and a 2.58 billion increase between 2025 and 2050. In other words, we cannot exclude another doubling of the world population between now and the middle of the next century as being projected by the UN high variant projection.

Is it possible to completely stop world population growth during the next few decades? Yes, it is - if fertility, worldwide, would decline to 1.57 children per woman, the global population could stabilize at about 7.5 billion by 2025. This is the result of the 1996 UN low variant projections. Please note that this variant assumes a drastic drop of average fertility to a level of some 24% below replacement - in all countries worldwide. While such a steep decline, in fact, already happened in many European countries, it is rather unlikely that populous developing nations such as Pakistan, India, Indonesia or Nigeria - which greatly determine world population growth - would quickly follow this trend.

Figure C1_2 The current annual population increase of about 80 million will remain constant until 2015.

Currently world population is growing by about 80 million people per year (see Figure C1_2). This is a little less than in the early 1990s when the growth was more than 85 million per year. According to the most recent UN medium variant projection this will change very little during the next decades. Only after 2015 will we observe a gradual decline of the annual population increase - reaching about 50 million by 2050. Thus, by the middle of the next century, world population growth (in absolute numbers) will have declined to the level of the early 1950s. However, this is only possible, if fertility - in all developing countries - falls to the “reproductive level” of 2.1 children per woman by 2050. For countries like India, Pakistan or Nigeria this is a long way to go.
Table C1_2 Between now and 2050 world population growth will be generated exclusively in developing Countries.
Between now and the middle of the next century world population will most likely increase by some 3.68 billion people - all of these increase will be contributed by the developing countries (see Table C1_2). In fact, the population of the developed nations as a group will most likely decline by almost 10 million people between now and the year 2050 - according to the UN medium variant projections. Most of this population growth in the developing world will occur during the next 30 years: between 1995 and 2025 the population in developing countries will increase by 2.3 billion; between 2025 and 2050 it will “only” grow by 1.39 billion.

Comparing the centennial growth of developed and developing countries reveals a dramatic divergence: The population of the developed countries as a group will have increased by less than 350 million between 1950 and 2050. The developing countries, on the other hand, will have an estimated 6.8 billion people more - thus almost quintupling their 1950 population.
This modern “population explosion” in the Third World is not comparable to the demographic transition of Europe in the 18th and 19th century. It is a historically unique phenomenon. Both the absolute numbers of population increase and the growth rates are without historical precedence. No country in Europe has experienced annual population growth rates of more than 0.5 to 1 percent during its “high growth” period.

Figure C1_3 World population increase is concentrated in Asia.
From the 3.68 billion people that will be added to the world population between 1995 and 2050, Asia will contribute some 2 billion (see Figure C1_3 and Table C1_2). This enormous increase is due to the already massive size of the population. Most of this growth will occur in the next three decades. Between 1995 and 2025 Asia’s population will grow by 1.35 billion - between 2025 and 2050 the increase is projected to be just 658 million (see Table C1_2).
Despite a projected increase in mortality due to AIDS, we cannot expect a significant slowing down of population growth in Africa. This continent will contribute 1.3 billion people to the world population between 1995 and the middle of the next century - almost twice as much as its current total population. Fertility is still so high in Sub-Saharan Africa that it can offset the effect of rising mortality. With an increase of 734 million over the next 30 years Africa’s population will more than double.
Latin America and the Caribbean, on the other hand, will have only a very moderate population increase of some 334 million between 1995 and 2050 - almost two-thirds (213 million) during the next three decades. This is due to both the smaller initial size of the population and the already relatively low level of fertility.
Europe’s population will almost certainly decline - by 27 million over the next 30 years and by another 64 million between 2025 and 2050. Hence, the UN medium variant projection assumes a shrinking of Europe’s population by some 91 million between 1995 and the middle of the next century.

Table C1_3 The ten countries which will contribute most to world population growth over the next 30 years are India, Chi

tracer

Well, no, not really. The world had clean, fresh water in more abundance pre-technology. We have in fact polluted clean fresh water with technology. It will, of course, get worse as we increase world population, as is the present trend. But, hey, tom and Akats say drink deslinated ocean water. Ohhhhh, yummy.

“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

tomndebb

Any fair minded reader of this thread, not YOU, will find no such sugggestion by me. Your unsuccessful attempts to turn this into a racial debate should be met with the derision it deserves. Lacking any credible information you resort to incoherent rantings and baseless accusations.

Anyone who knows a whit about Immigration Reform, obviously not you, calls for an across the board reduction in ALL IMMIGRATION, REGARDLESS OF COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, OR RACE. Again, you misstate. Not surprising.


“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

Sales’ father asked him:

Well, probably more than were directly killed, maimed, and crippled by horses back when. Since the average person could not afford to buy a horse (“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride”), nor to keep a horse if one were to given to him as a gift, he would never have had the opportunity to be harmed by one. This is, of course, different from the average inhabitant of the industrialized, or even the truly developing, countries today, where ownership of an automobile is so common a matter as to not be worth mentioning.
Now, the indirect harm of the horse would have been great indeed. When the streets of major cities, such as New York, London, or Paris, were covered with disease-carrying horse manure, the toll of such illnesses as tetanus, cholera, and tuberculosis was tragic.
However, we may surely imagine Sales senior’s disdain for such; no doubt he pictured himself as riding in aristocratic isolation along a country road. Such, after all, was usual in the pre-industrial age – for aristocrats, that is. Sales senior appears to have fallen prey to the common misconception that society then consisted of no one save such aristocrats.

Far better, we may be assured, that of those generations who toiled in the fields, hour after hour and day after day. Indeed, after a week of 40 hours broken into five working days, those workers go home to live in dignity, with hot food, adequate in both abundance and nutrition, a watertight roof, and clothing which is neither worn to uselessness, nor louse-ridden in an attempt to conserve it through lack of washing. Contrast this with the peasant working sunrise to sunset (and often cultivating his meager patch of pre-industrial ground by moonlight), usually as much as fourteen hours a day, violating whatever sanctity his religion might attach to its sabbath in order to avoid starvation, and, in his few leisure hours, eating an unsatisfying and unsatisfactory diet of pulse and roots, and trying to get some rest beneath a leaky, vermin-ridden, thatched roof.
No doubt, however, we can imagine Sales senior, riding by in his splendid aristocratic isolation, and telling the peasants toiling in the fields that, although they owned little and earned less, they at least had the spiritual satisfaction of knowing that they were ruining the local ecology by disrupting the soil. Of course, they would have had to be told this; their lives of ceaseless labor meant that they would have had no opportunity to learn to read, let alone settle down with a book.

Oh, few enough. After all, the great industrial expansion of the XIX century meant that, although the forests had already been chopped down to make the fields that so inadequately nourished a population that had reached the limits of sustenance provided by the moldboard plow and the horse collar, the subsequent vast increase of the food supply meant that the forests could return, that the stony fields could be abandoned, and that the town and villages not already decimated by plague could be deserted without all of their inhabitants starving thereby.
Of course, Sales senior doubtless regretted the lost opportunities for adding field to field and manor to manor, and, as he rode his horse in aristocratic splendor, grieved that he could not see the busy serfs eking out their living, and providing for his.

The answers to all these questions, of course, were trivially available to him, as they remain trivially available to us all. Actually getting those answers, of course, was no doubt beneath the aristocratic dignity that Sales senior attempted to hard to preserve. That was what a true representative of the masterly class kept servants for (if he could find literate ones); to find the answers to those questions whilst he sat at the dinner table, arguing in magisterial pomposity how better things were in the Good Old Days, when the lower orders knew their place (out back weeding and hoeing, that is).
All in all, Sales senior sounds a perfect example of the feudal aristocrat or the antebellum planter. What a shame that he was born into these latter days, when small men – mere manual laborers on the assembly lines of Detroit – could match him, item for item and dollar for dollar, in material things, and had opportunities for education, mobility, and yes, life itself, surviving their childhood diseases and living to a ripe old age, that his grandfather would have held beyond the abilities of any but gods, angels, and demons. Too bad that Sales senior was reduced to pontificating across the dinner table about how much better the world have been when such opportunities were denied to all but men of his class. Such a man should be an example to us all – a bad example.


“Kings die, and leave their crowns to their sons. Shmuel HaKatan took all the treasures in the world, and went away.”

Well, okay, potable water wasn’t created as a result of human progress. (Although things like aqueducts and desalinization were.)

And speaking of desalinization – desalinized water doesn’t taste any different from other tap water. In fact, reclaimed water from sewers can, if filtered properly, taste decent enough to come out of your tap. (Desalinated/reclaimed water can taste even better if you extract it by distillation.)

Sorry, I just can’t resist…

Everyone, of course, except for just about every economist on the face of the planet, who favor open immigration. I don’t suppose John John has heard of David Ricardo, or the theory of competitive advantage. Open trade and immigration are big wins for everyone who engage in them. Unless, of course, your society is composed of slaves. Then you might have a problem.

The type of people who oppose free trade and immigration are nationalists like Pat Buchanan, who appeal to emotions instead of logic.

John John attributes to one, Carl Becker, alleged to be a historian, an essay:

We note in passing that immediately the historicity of the essay breaks down. Prior to the “triumph of capitalism” (a “triumph that has been, at best, partial in real and philosophical space), a much smaller minority of the world’s population could be said to be living in comfort at all. The Renaissance palazzo or the Qing mandarin’s compound may have been magnificent, but can hardly be described as “comfortable” – not, at least, by effete moderns who take for granted such luxuries as clean beds, running water, and central heating. What scraps of comfort these favored aristocrats had, moreover, were exacted from a much larger population of peasants by means of the knout, the whip, and the spear.
Indeed, this essay shows all the symptoms of another disease, another myth – that of the Noble Savage, in which the pre-industrial population, somehow in “contact with the Earth”, are considered to have transmuted the squalor and poverty of their lives for some mystical values. To steal a phrase from our own heretic, Becker fondly imagines that “Ye Olde Wayes Were Goodely”.

And when, in Becker’s undoubtedly vast knowledge, was it different? Did the Hellenistic peasant live in comfort? Did the medieval West European serf have potable water or sanitary toilets? (Perhaps Becker excludes pathogens from his personal definition of “potable”.) Did the fellahin of Mamluk Egypt have vast incomes that allowed them to pass on assets to their children. Was the typical inhabitant of Bengal better off under the Moguls or the Maurya?
Yet we have Becker’s assurance that Ye Olde Wayes Were Goodely.

We note the crude attempts to evade reality in this paragraph. The “War on Poverty”, so confidently declared by Johnson and his cronies, has long been in such disarray that, if it were an actual military conflict, we should have lost it. Yet what was the poverty rate in America in 1950? In 1900? In 1850? Does the “historian” in fact have a historical outlook more than a week and a half long? What the “real costs” that he so dismissively adjusts the poverty line by? Do they include, perhaps, the cost of a tweed jacket, a glass of sherry brought by the college servants, and a leather armchair in the Senior Common Room? Can those without jobs be cast in the balance again the landless “cottagers” of former times? Are those without benefits and security now to be compared to a population of subsistence farmers, whose security was their hopes (far too often disappointed!) that one of their children would survive long enough to support them in their old age?
That all are not as comfortable as Becker is, indeed, a criticism that can be leveled against contemporary civilization. Yet what does he recommend? Only that Ye Olde Wayes Were Goodely, and that we should return to them all (preserving, of course, his privileged place), to a time when not some, but all, were impoverished, insecure, and in despair.

Hardly surprising to any but a “historian”. Having raised themselves out of the muck by three generations of effort, Becker uncaringly kicks them in the teeth and tells them, “You must go back; you must become poor again; all of your efforts are meaningless to me, who believes that Ye Olde Wayes Were Goodely”.
Comfortable (O dangerous word!) in his belief that Ye Olde Wayes Were Goodely, Becker is content to see his “affluenza” traded for influenza; he is content that instead the masses of whom he is so ignorant and, evidently, contemptuous should suffer typhoid, dysentery, mutilation in war, illiteracy, smallpox, kwashiorkor, and that peculiar disease of the spirit called the “Neolithic mentality” instead. Yes, he may rest his mind about alcoholism, since, in his dream world, no one (but him, perhaps?) will be able to afford alcohol. Of course, overwork, insecurity, and psychosis will continue to exist, as they always have, but he may rest content knowing that mere striving to avoid these things will be replaced by the crushing burden of knowing that, pro omnia saecula saeculorum, they can never be avoided.


“Kings die, and leave their crowns to their sons. Shmuel HaKatan took all the treasures in the world, and went away.”

Akatsukami-

Regarding the precautionary principle: taking it to the extreme would lead to a world devoid of humans, because, as others have pointed out, our mere existence leads to perturbations in the current environment. I, for one, don’t wish to disappear. Surely there’s somewhere in the middle where we don’t dump as much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Don’t equate support of reduced carbon dioxide emissions with support for radical extremist environmental organizations.

Regarding your assertions:

  1. To the best measurements, global warming is occuring to the tune of about 0.07 C per decade over the last 2.5 decades, and shows a warming trend over the century. Science, 1998, 281, 930.

  2. To the best models, anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide are related to the gradual warming trend. The best overview of this is the in IPCC Second Assessment- Climate Change 1995.

  3. see 1) and 2)

  4. Great! So let’s replace them! Unfortunately, alternative energy sources are quite inefficient compared to petroluem based sources. Clearly, further research is needed.

Please feel free to provide citations for contrary opinions.

I agree with you in part that problems with population growth are caused by political actions. Issues such as famine, disease, etc, are due to societal organization and standard of living. However, you’re ignoring the fact that there will be undoubtably be more famine and disease, particularly in the short time as the population in underdeveloped countries grows. The population will eventually contract due to the lower fertility rates you’ve quoted, but you’re ignoring the human suffering in the interim.

It’s nice to talk about things in absolute terms, as x acres of food will produce y amounts of food to feed z amounts of people, but you can’t ignore the political aspect in deciding when an area is overpopulated. If a country or region doesn’t have the necessary resources or mechanisms to feed itself, then it has too many people.

akats

Sales pontificates that we should be kind to the earth and not ruin it by overpopulation and severe industry that leaves the soil spoiled for generations. You, on the other hand, say ignore the warnings, all is well it’ll be alright, do as you please without respect for what you leave behind for the next generation. Bad example.

“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

tracer

Not only are you ignoring the warnings that we are headed towards disaster with overpopulation, you are now claiming that treated sewer water tastes like spring water? Nah, nope, that ain’t happening.

“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

dhanson

" You hear that giant sucking sound? That’s all yer jobs going down to Mexico." Well, Ross was right about one thing, when you enter into a trade agreement with a nation that has small GDP and not to many resources, save for cheap labor, has nothing more to offer than an inexpensive place to put your factories, you really aren’t coming out a winner. Nafta has not been the economic boon for the US that it was touted to be. Mexico has been the larger winner in that exchange.

Open trade does lead to more robust world economies, but uncontrolled immigration DOES NOT. You can have open trade with no immigration. The fruits of trade will help raise the standard of living of the population making immigration unnecessary.

Immigration is either a brain drain to the richer country, able to pay highrer wages, or a downward pressure on income from cheap labor. Uncontrolled immigration patterns follow the path of wealth and leave the developing nations with no one to help grow their economies. You really need to study the results of immigration on the economy or a basic econmic course…


“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

Akats, you miss Becker’s point: more population, well beyond the current 6 billion, leads to more spoiled earth, more smokestacks belching pathogens into the atmosphere, more crowding, less potable water, more of a drain on finite resources etc. You also misstate the living conditons of the early industrial working population. Many were slaves to machines. Women were at sowing machines for 12- 14 hours a day, unable to even speak to one another without fear of dismissal, young children were put to work like adults, this still happens in overcrowded countries, men were expected to work 7 days a week like the machines. They received low wages and no benifits. Just think of the miners. What do you think was the impetus for unions? Think Dickensonian London.

Yes, akats, the agrarian population of the 14 century did have it better by comparison, plagues notwithstanding.

Let me ask you, be honest, if your State’s population were increaded by a billion people, would that be a good thing for everyone, or would it be too crowded for any form of civility and ease of living?


“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

Edward

Yes, Ed, a middle ground most certainly would be to educate people on the perils of overpopulation. It stands to reason, why this escapes some is amazing, that more people, by billions, means more cars, more stoves, more refrigerators, more smokestacks, more machines, more waste, more need for open land, destruction of wild life, rainforests, more timbering of old growth etc.

Why are people that call for less population and the resultant carbon dioxide and other pollutants called extremists. All they are saying is, SLOW DOWN.

“All rising to a great place is by a winding stair.” F.Bacon

Brille

John John again shows the historical awareness of a Carl Becker when he says:

And the *pre-*industrial worker was a slave to the land. Women had no sowing machines (I rather suspect that you meant “sewing”, but the misspelling is a fortuitous one), but sowed by hand those same 12 to 14 hours a day. Young children worked on the land like adults, and for less benefit (Locke proposed in 1697 that children as young as three be placed in factories, in his hope that factory owners would give them what their parents couldn’t – viz., food). Men were not merely expected to work the land seven days a week like machines, they had to, or die of starvation. And, of course, there was no rainowner to go on strike against; Nature can be a mean mother, and remains unimpressed by how many picketers are marching against her.

The agrarian population is the one that moved into the factories of the XVIII century voluntarily, hoping from some relief from the zero-sum game of working the land. Dirt farming for a living is not the same as tending your garden.
On a different note, edward has shown some citations which deserve my attention – which I cannot give right now. Let them stand, unrefuted (by me, at least), until I can do so. I would merely ask, WRT point #4, if nuclear energy is to be included in “alternative energy source”? Obviously, how they defined will make a great deal of difference in my response.


“Kings die, and leave their crowns to their sons. Shmuel HaKatan took all the treasures in the world, and went away.”