[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
Did Eisenhower and MacArthur know much about the subject? Because they both said the bombings were unnecessary and that Japan would have surrendered anyway.
[/QUOTE]
Again, you are changing the goal posts seemingly at random. Are we talking solely about the atomic bombs now or are we talking about the US not participating in the war at all?
If we are talking about the former, I should point out that MacArthur was opposed to dropping the bombs because he wanted to invade, instead, something that would have cost a lot more in terms of lives than the atomic bombs. I’m unsure what Eisenhower’s position was (do you have a cite, in context, of what he was saying? And when this comment came out? Was it before the atomic bombs were dropped or later?), but that he was more involved in the European side of things, so I’m unsure where his comments may have been coming from.
There were a lot of folks who supposedly were in the know about this subject who made random statements such as what you are claiming there, but most of the one’s I’ve tracked down in past threads like this were either taken out of context, said because the person making the comment had another agenda (such as LeMay wanting to continue the strategic bombing instead of using the bomb, or MacArthur wanting an invasion instead of using the bomb, etc).
Most actual experts agree that it was unlikely that Japan would surrender without either an invasion or the use of the atomic bombs. Hell, as has been pointed out in this thread, they didn’t seem inclined to surrender even AFTER the atom bombs were dropped, or even after Russia jumped into the war and started pounding on their army in Manchuria. It took direct intervention by the Emperor to finally bring the war to an end (and he admits that the fire bombings, as well as the atomic bombs were what convinced him to do so), and even then they almost had a military coup to keep the war going.
No, they weren’t on the verge of surrender, and no, if Eisenhower said they were he wasn’t more of an authority, since he is going against not only the majority opinion of his own time, but he’s going against the majority opinion of most historians of the non-revisionist type. As to McArthur, he wanted an invasion for his own personal motives.
It seems a distinction without any real meaning.
-XT