# 70% chance Trump attacks North Korea **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 14, 2017, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540 "2017-12-14T22:04:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2017, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/1 "2017-12-14T22:04:36Z")
If NK have another nuke test. According to Lindsey Graham > **[Graham: 70 Percent Chance of War With North Korea If It Tests More Nukes](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/12/graham-70-percent-chance-of-war-if-n-korea-tests-7th-nuke.html)** > > The hawkish South Carolinian is credibly terrifying in describing Trump’s intentions if North Korea keeps being North Korea. I think it’s pretty certain they will do another test . How can NK be attacked without South Korea being impacted? ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2017, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/2 "2017-12-14T22:08:49Z")
What does Trump care about South Korea? In fact, he probably sees the destruction of SK–and maybe Japan, too–as a “business opportunity” for his own family. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2017, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/3 "2017-12-14T22:13:02Z")
If SK goes down the entire world economy goes into the toilet. Same is true for Japan. It would make the great depression seem minor in comparison. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2017, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/4 "2017-12-14T22:16:30Z")
Lindsey Graham is the worst predictor of future events in Washington. [ObamaCare repeal will pass.](http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/351390-graham-predicts-obamacare-repeal-bill-will-get-50-votes) [I’'m going to pass a bill to ban a lot of abortions.](http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/sen.-graham-predicts-victory-for-midterm-abortion-ban/article/2563209) [Trump has peaked.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/07/13/lindsey-graham-predicts-donald-trump-has-peaked-hes-probably-hit-where-hes-going-to-go/?utm_term=.92ae0046e476) [Joe Biden will jump into the 2016 elections.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/lindsey-graham-predicts-joe-biden-will-jump-2016-race-n405556) [Saddam has WMD, for sure.](https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/the-time-john-mccain-and-lindsey-graham-relayed-ba?utm_term=.fa5D9Q3rEk#.px22MVJQ58) [Iraq is going to be just fine.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/27/AR2007082701919.html) [And much more crap, too.](http://nationalinterest.org/feature/lindsey-graham-the-avatar-fear-11280) ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2017, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/5 "2017-12-14T22:18:37Z")
just curious did you keep a list of all his predictions? Or was that a real fast google search? ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2017, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/6 "2017-12-14T22:25:47Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > If SK goes down the entire world economy goes into the toilet. Same is true for Japan. It would make the great depression seem minor in comparison. Yes. It’s not an overstatement to say that we’d be entering into apocalyptic times–world economies would be devastated, and the massive radioactive cloud that would encompass much of the planet, wouldn’t be a good thing, either. Let’s hope that enough powerful people realize that, to stop Trump from playing with his toy soldiers. Xi Jinping, for example, will surely not stand idly by so that Trump can have his fun. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2017, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/7 "2017-12-14T22:32:58Z")
I don’t think it’s certain the attack would be nuclear at least to start from the US. They would try it with regular stuff. The problem there though is NK has so many weapons aimed at SK you probably cannot take them all out before some are used. they can use old fashioned shelling to hit Seoul since it’s so close to the border. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2017, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/8 "2017-12-14T22:41:14Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > I don’t think it’s certain the attack would be nuclear at least to start from the US. They would try it with regular stuff. The problem there though is NK has so many weapons aimed at SK you probably cannot take them all out before some are used. they can use old fashioned shelling to hit Seoul since it’s so close to the border. The bit in red is what I’m assuming would happen. But let’s hope that saner heads prevail. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/9 "2017-12-15T03:55:25Z")
There is going to be no attack on North Korea unless North Korea. The situation over there requires the input of South Korea and Japan and we don’t have the forces in place for anything more than bombing, which won’t cut it. There is no alternative to a ground invasion of NK if it ever comes to war. Which is why war will never come unless NK initiates it. What I will say though is that NK probably can’t get away with killing US soldiers again. Not that that should ever have been tolerated to begin with, but it was right after Vietnam and that’s about the only time the murder of US soldiers wouldn’t have resulted in war. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/10 "2017-12-15T05:19:30Z")
Reading the article, it sounds like LG wants such an attack, so he’s telegraphing what he thinks our policy should be as much, if not more, than trying to predict what Trump will do. So if you’re rushing to say how much you think Graham is right, realize that you’re agreeing with a guy who thinks we need to use the military to stop NK. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/11 "2017-12-15T05:38:21Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > … How can NK be attacked without South Korea being impacted? I think the odds of having a war with North Korea and that having zero impact on South Korea has such vanishingly-small odds that it’s not worth discussing. War with North Korea almost certainly means a substantial impact on South Korea. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/12 "2017-12-15T05:38:39Z")
Graham is probably wrong by two orders of magnitude. Maybe 0.7% chance. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/13 "2017-12-15T05:38:45Z")
Graham is clearly _trying_ to get Trump to bomb _something_. He’s not doing spontaneous ads for Trump golf courses for nothing. If not North Korea, it’s probably Iran. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/14 "2017-12-15T05:45:29Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Graham is clearly _trying_ to get Trump to bomb _something_. He’s not doing spontaneous ads for Trump golf courses for nothing. If not North Korea, it’s probably Iran. If someone just really has an itch to bomb something that absolutely must be scratched, scratching it with Iran is preferable. There’s no giant metropolitan area filled with allies being held hostage by thousands of artillery pieces, no confirmed nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles that can hit the eastern seaboard. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/15 "2017-12-15T06:23:31Z")
They do have the [Strait of Hormuz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz). And, yanno, millions of Iranians. I know their lives are not supposed to matter, but IMHO war with neither is preferable. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/16 "2017-12-15T07:46:44Z")
Well all those Minutemen parked in the North West US are really going to waste. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/17 "2017-12-15T12:19:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There is going to be no attack on North Korea unless North Korea. The situation over there requires the input of South Korea and Japan and we don’t have the forces in place for anything more than bombing, which won’t cut it. There is no alternative to a ground invasion of NK if it ever comes to war. Which is why war will never come unless NK initiates it. Your making assumptions. You’re assuming that North Korea doesn’t perceive the United States engaging in behavior that constitutes an unacceptable level of threat to their regime. That’s what needs to be understood here - it’s not about whether both sides are rational. It’s entirely possible for a rational actor to incorrectly calculate or perceive a threat and then behave in a manner that might seem irrational, but from his or our perspective might, in fact, be completely rational. What’s critical to remember is that if the war starts, there won’t be any half-stepping - it will be full on brutal war with catastrophic results. A war is still avoidable but the threat of war is constantly growing. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/18 "2017-12-15T12:20:45Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Well all those Minutemen parked in the North West US are really going to waste. Those aren’t sited for use against North Korea (or Iran)…unless we want to risk flying them [over Russia](http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=MOT-FNJ%0D%0AMOT-IKA&MS=wls&DU=mi). (This is one of the reasons why some have proposed ditching the whole land-based ICBM concept.) ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/19 "2017-12-15T12:22:13Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > just curious did you keep a list of all his predictions? Or was that a real fast google search? “Lindsey Graham predicts” is all you need to find every wrong prediction he’s ever made. And there’s a few others that I remember that I didn’t post. I believe he said that if the US didn’t overthrow Assad, the King of Jordan would be deposed by January 2015. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2017, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540/20 "2017-12-15T14:47:13Z")
BTW, this is not new from the hawkish Lindsey Graham. Here he is at the end of Nov (from CNN): > [@](#): > > “I don’t want a war. He doesn’t want a war,” Graham said, referring to Trump. “But we’re not going to let this crazy man in North Korea have the capability to hit the homeland.” > > \ > > “He is ready, if necessary, to destroy this regime to protect America, and I hope the regime understands that if President Trump has to pick between destroying the North Korean regime and the American homeland, he’s going to destroy the regime. I hope China understands that also,” Graham said. This is LG letting Trump know that he’s got his back. I don’t know why anyone other than a Trump supporter would want to get on board with this guy on this issue. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/70-chance-trump-attacks-north-korea/804540.md?page=2)