# 8th Annual SDMB Early Super Bowl Pick Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 3, 2011, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224 "2011-01-03T13:54:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2011, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/81 "2011-01-17T04:13:21Z")
No, because if the Squealers win, there will be a whole bunch of teams alive. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2011, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/82 "2011-01-17T04:41:15Z")
Right, but the first tiebreaker is how far the teams you picked went, right? So since nobody who picked the Steelers _also_ picked the Bears or Packers, the top two guys will win based on first tiebreaker. One of them will guaranteed get 1 team in the Superbowl and 1 in the Conference Championship, which is something nobody who picked the Steelers can hope to achieve. Is that not how it works? ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2011, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/83 "2011-01-17T04:43:18Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > We’re officially down to two players now, yes? > > The AFC is irrelevant; either the remaining two players both called it right or both called it wrong. It comes down to the NFC Championship game. If the Bears win, **Lance Turbo** wins, if the Packers do it goes to **garygnu**. We’ll have a winner without even needing the Superbowl to be played. > > Do I have that right? Originally, yes, that was how it was run – and it was a bad idea to do it that way. It had a big effect on the outcome of [Season 4](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=402369) (beginning at post #25), and at the end of that one I copped to the unwittingly unfair setup, and made plans to change it in the future. If the Steelers win next week (bastards…making me root for the damn Jets), then it’ll be the first time since then that this is an issue. But what it’ll come down to is that if the Jets lose, then those who picked the Steelers will still be in a position to win. If the Jets win, then they eliminate the Steelers from the playoffs and their fans from this game. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2011, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/84 "2011-01-17T04:53:00Z")
Okay, cool, just trying to understand how it works. So picking the Superbowl winner is the first and foremost requirement, meaning if the Steelers win the Superbowl, anyone who picked them to win it all is in a tiebreaker with each other but anyone who picked them to lose the Superbowl is out by the “how far did both your teams go?” tiebreaker? That means if the Packers beat the Jets by 20, **Hamlet** wins it all even though he didn’t pick the Jets to get there at all while **garygnu** picked both Superbowl teams correctly? Just trying to figure out how it all works. I’m already eliminated no matter what. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2011, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/85 "2011-01-17T19:09:07Z")
Hal may come in to correct me, but I’ll give it a shot. Here’s the tiebreakers > [@](#): > > 1. Picked both teams, got winner correct > 2. Picked both teams, got winner wrong > 3. Picked winner correctly > 4. Picked loser correctly > 5. Closest to total score > 6. Closest to predicted margin of victory If the Jets win, it’ll come down to the results of the NFC Championship game and either **Lance Turbo** or **garygnu** will win (Tiebreakers 1 and 2). If the Steelers, along with, lets say, the Bears win, it will come down to whoever either has the Bears or the Steelers in the final. That will be narrowed down to just the winners, so if, lets say the Bears win, it will be down to whoever has the Bears winning the Superbowl (Tiebreaker 3). Tiebreaker 4 is irrelevant here, since no one picked the winner and the loser, so it will go to whoever is the closest to the total score (Tiebreaker 5) and possibly to the closest to the margin of victory (Tiebreaker 6). “How far did both your teams go?” isn’t a tiebreaker. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2011, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/86 "2011-01-17T20:13:44Z")
I’ll just be sitting here with my champaigne flute getting warm. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/87 "2011-01-18T00:12:53Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Hal may come in to correct me, but I’ll give it a shot. > > Here’s the tiebreakers Yeah, makes sense, I’m a fan. Except you have 5 & 6 reversed. Picking the spread is more impressive than picking the over/under. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/88 "2011-01-18T00:20:59Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > I’ll just be sitting here with my champaigne flute getting warm. It’ll be really warm by the time next year rolls around since both of your chosen teams are going down this weekend. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/89 "2011-01-18T03:24:04Z")
I guess the first back-to-back winner will have to wait for at least one more year. ☹ Man, who would have thought both the Falcons and the Patriots would go out like that? ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/90 "2011-01-18T03:32:10Z")
Especially against the Jets. I mean, nobody wants to face Green Bay so it’s not like the Falcons going out is so unbelievable. Hell, the Falcons haven’t really gotten any respect all year. Not on the level of the Bears getting no respect, but still. The Patriots, however, losing to the Jets? Unthinkable. The Patriots were a near unanimous pick for best team in the entire league, and the Jets were a bunchy of mouthy assholes who lucked into most of their wins. I’m a Jets fan and I was _shocked_ by that win. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2011, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/91 "2011-01-23T17:58:07Z")
Woops, wrong thread. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/92 "2011-01-24T12:44:04Z")
After the Conference Championships – Not A Scratch: That’d be…no one! One Team Gone: **garygnu** - [del]Jets[/del] 16, Packers 13 \*\*Hal Briston \*\* - [del]Patriots[/del] 37, Packers 13 **Jules Andre** - [del]Patriots[/del] 31, Packers 27 **Jahiegel** - [del]Patriots[/del] 27, Packers 23 **SenorBeef** - [del]Patriots[/del] 33, Packers 27 **Wakinyan** - Packers 27, [del]Patriots[/del] 17 **Hamlet** - Packers 37, [del]Patriots[/del] 17 **Sateryn76** - [del]Colts[/del] 24, Packers 21 **Enderw24** - [del]Chiefs[/del] 24 , Packers 17 **Khadaji** - Steelers 30, [del]Saints[/del] 14 **VarlosZ** - Steelers 28, [del]Saints[/del] 16 **SylverOne** - Steelers 27, [del]Eagles[/del] 21 **Airman Doors, USAF** - Steelers 23, [del]Falcons[/del] 13 **Suburban Plankton** - Steelers 17, [del]Falcons[/del] 13 **LateComer** - Steelers 24, [del]Falcons[/del] 20 Both Teams Gone: **Lance Turbo** - [del]Bears[/del] 38, [del]Jets[/del] 34 **FoieGrasIsEvil** - [del]Saints[/del] 32, [del]Colts[/del] 28 **quixotic78** - [del]Saints[/del] 34, [del]Ravens[/del] 24 **zamboniracer** - [del]Chiefs[/del] 17, [del]Falcons[/del] 14 **twickster** - [del]Eagles[/del] 23, [del]Ravens[/del] 20 **lel** - [del]Falcons[/del] 21, [del]Ravens[/del] 14 **Fear the Turtle** - [del]Ravens[/del] 21, [del]Falcons[/del] 17 **Hawkeyeop** - [del]Ravens[/del] 27, [del]Falcons[/del] 24 **Intelligently Designed** - [del]Seahawks[/del] 10, [del]Chiefs[/del] 7 **Paintcharge** - [del]Patriots[/del] 31, [del]Saints[/del] 28 **Oakminster** - [del]Saints[/del] 28, [del]Patriots[/del] 24 **etv78** - [del]Patriots[/del] 35, [del]Saints[/del] 17 **Implicit** - [del]Patriots[/del] 31, [del]Saints[/del] 10 **tiltawhirl** - [del]Patriots[/del] 41, [del]Eagles[/del] 27 **MOIDALIZE** - [del]Patriots[/del] 37, [del]Eagles[/del] 31 **borschevsky** - [del]Patriots[/del] 34, [del]Eagles[/del] 13 **muldoonthief** - [del]Patriots[/del] 27, [del]Eagles[/del] 10 **lieu** - [del]Patriots[/del] 38, [del]Eagles[/del] 27 **MadTheSwine** - [del]Eagles[/del] 42, [del]Patriots[/del] 31 **bouv** - [del]Patriots[/del] 27, [del]Eagles[/del] 17 **Gray Ghost** - [del]Patriots[/del] 41, [del]Falcons[/del] 13 **Justin\_Bailey** - [del]Falcons[/del] 35, [del]Patriots[/del] 24 **fachverwirrt** - [del]Patriots[/del] 31, [del]Falcons[/del] 28 **furt** - [del]Patriots[/del] 34, [del]Falcons[/del] 13 **Ellis Dee** - [del]Patriots[/del] 24, [del]Falcons[/del] 17 **jeezums** - [del]Patriots[/del] 34, [del]Falcons[/del] 17 **notfrommensa** - [del]Patriots[/del] 37, [del]Falcons[/del] 17 **Evil Captor** - [del]Falcons[/del] 24, [del]Patriots[/del] 21 **Diogenes the Cynic** - [del]Patriots[/del] 24, [del]Bears[/del] 10 **Erdosain** - [del]Patriots[/del] 46, [del]Bears[/del] 10 **CPomeroy** - [del]Bears[/del] 31, [del]Colts[/del] 30 **enalzi** - [del]Bears[/del] 24, [del]Chiefs[/del] 20 **zoog** - [del]Bears[/del] 20, [del]Ravens[/del] 17 I’ll be posting the possibilities for the final a bit later. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/93 "2011-01-24T15:37:02Z")
Are these the tiebreakers? 1. Picked the winner correctly. 2. Picked the loser correctly. 3. Picked the spread. 4. Picked the over/under. If so, everyone who picked the Packers to lose is already eliminated, right? (And the Steelers, but nobody picked the Steelers to lose.) If so, that leaves only: Hamlet - Packers -20 (54) Wakinyan - Packers -10 (44) Suburban Plankton - Steelers -4 (30) LateComer - Steelers -4 (44) SylverOne - Steelers -6 (48) Airman Doors, USAF - Steelers -10 (36) VarlosZ - Steelers -12 (44) Khadaji - Steelers -16 (44) ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/94 "2011-01-24T15:44:16Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > If so, everyone who picked the Packers to lose is already eliminated, right? Argh…that’s right. I created a long posting breaking down how it would go depending on who won, but you’re correct – picking the Packers to lose would ditch you, as the rules are currently written. And you’ve reversed #3 and #4 – I’ve never seen a pool where total score _isn’t_ the first tiebreaker. Lemme revise what I have…I’ll post it in a few. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/95 "2011-01-24T15:59:36Z")
Ok, here we go – If the Packers win: Total score under 49: **Wakinyan** Total score over 49: **Hamlet** Tie on 49 exactly, move on to next tiebreaker – margin of victory: MOV under five: **Wakinyan** MOV over five: **Hamlet** If the total score is exactly 49 with a five-point margin of victory, then fuggit, I’m willing to call this a tie (or they can choose to settle it in Thunderdone, if they like). If the Steelers win: 2-32: **Suburban Plankton** 33: **Suburban Plankton** and **Airman Doors, USAF** 34-39: **Airman Doors, USAF** 40: **Airman Doors, USAF** , **Khadaji** , **VarlosZ** and **LateComer** 41-50: **Khadaji** , **VarlosZ** and **LateComer** 51: **Khadaji** , **VarlosZ** , **LateComer** and **SylverOne** 51+: **SylverOne** Next tiebreaker – margin of victory: **Khadaji** - 16 **VarlosZ** - 12 **Airman Doors, USAF** - 10 **SylverOne** - 6 **Suburban Plankton** - 4 **LateComer** - 4 If the Steelers win, then we’ll figure out the exact second tiebreaker numbers if they’re needed. No possibility of a continued tie exists if the Steelers win. I’m just glad to see that **Ellis** came up with the same numbers as I did. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/96 "2011-01-24T16:14:39Z")
As may be obvious, I’ve never done a pool like this (other than March Madness) and never understood how they worked. Heh. Your list is off, btw. For example, if the Steelers win and the total points are, say, 48, SylverOne wins with no further tiebreaking required. Maybe you mixed in the total point guesses of the Packer-backers? It might be simpler to express the possibilities as: Player / Winner / Total Points / Margin of Victory Wakinyan - Packers 44 (10) Hamlet - Packers 54 (20) Suburban Plankton - Steelers 30 (4) Airman Doors, USAF - Steelers 36 (10) LateComer - Steelers 44 (4) VarlosZ - Steelers 44 (12) Khadaji - Steelers 44 (16) SylverOne - Steelers 48 (6) EDIT: Ha! I was going to suggest that a next-level tiebreaker would be how far your other team went in the playoffs if both total points and margin of victory were the same. But after looking through it, for every single person who picked either the Steelers or Packers to win the Superbowl, the other team they picked lost their very first playoff game. hehheh. (Saints, Eagles, Falcons, Patriots) ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/97 "2011-02-07T03:42:41Z")
Packers beat the Steelers 31-25, meaning **Hamlet** ’s name gets added to the pantheon of SDMBESBPC winners – congratulations! \ ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224/98 "2011-02-07T06:38:26Z")
Congrats, Hamlet! I am so glad I never bet real money on sports! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/8th-annual-sdmb-early-super-bowl-pick-contest/566224.md?page=4)