$900 million lottery--why did you buy a ticket?

[Rigamarole]

@The_Niply_Elder

When the jackpot gets rolled over the lottery adjusts the odds appropriately. And since the lottery is run by the government, taxes paid on the winnings are the house take. If the expected value was ever more that the purchase price then any number of yahoo hedge fund managers would immediately jump in for a sure fire return on their piddly billion dollar accounts.

No, you’re absolutely wrong. You don’t seem to understand how Powerball works - the odds never change*. I believe there have been occasions in the past where a group bought out every possible combination in order to guarantee a win. The problem is, in addition to the lump sum reduction and tax issues I mentioned, even when you’re guaranteed to win the jackpot (by buying all number combinations), you run the risk that someone else will also have the winning numbers, forcing you to split the pot, and shattering the return you were expecting on the investment. That’s still a serious risk.
*A few months ago, they changed the nature of the game by increasing the range of possible number picks, which did of course change (lower) the odds of winning. But that is a rare occurrence; it’s not something that happens on the fly.

[The_Niply_Elder]

@Rigamarole

No, you’re absolutely wrong. You don’t seem to understand how Powerball works - the odds never change*. I believe there have been occasions in the past where a group bought out every possible combination in order to guarantee a win. The problem is, in addition to the lump sum reduction and tax issues I mentioned, even when you’re guaranteed to win the jackpot (by buying all number combinations), you run the risk that someone else will also have the winning numbers, forcing you to split the pot, and shattering the return you were expecting on the investment. That’s still a serious risk.
*A few months ago, they changed the nature of the game by increasing the range of possible number picks, which did of course change (lower) the odds of winning. But that is a rare occurrence; it’s not something that happens on the fly.

Yes you are right. However, the expected value of a ticket doesn’t exceed the purchase price of one.

[Doctor_Jackson]

@The_Niply_Elder

When the jackpot gets rolled over the lottery adjusts the odds appropriately. And since the lottery is run by the government, taxes paid on the winnings are the house take. If the expected value was ever more that the purchase price then any number of yahoo hedge fund managers would immediately jump in for a sure fire return on their piddly billion dollar accounts.

I’ll let Rigamarole’s answer stand for the first part, but your second part won’t happen either, for several reasons:

1. No way to print all of the tickets - There are over 292 million number combinations and the drawings are only 72 (Wed - Sat) and 98 (Sat-Wed) hours apart. That means one would have to print 69,212 tickets per second in the former case and 51,909 per second in the latter. To put that in context, the last minute ticket frenzy for the just passed drawing peaked with machines system wide only printing 2,167 per second.

2. If the pot is split, which is a very good possibility, the syndicate loses. Too risky.

[Rigamarole]

@Doctor_Jackson

1. No way to print all of the tickets - There are over 292 million number combinations and the drawings are only 72 (Wed - Sat) and 98 (Sat-Wed) hours apart. That means one would have to print 69,212 tickets per second in the former case and 51,909 per second in the latter. To put that in context, the last minute ticket frenzy for the just passed drawing peaked with machines system wide only printing 2,167 per second.

There’s a whole discussion about this going on in GQ. Any group going all-in could have the tickets pre-printed. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone started preparing for a pot like this back when they lowered the odds months ago, and they end up winning on Wednesday.

[Totenfeier]

@Jophiel

Because the lottery isn’t part of my day-to-day life or mindset. I don’t consider it until it reaches a size where its permeating the news/culture and I can’t help but think about it.

This here. I know damn well I’d better not, and have said so in several threads - but, damnitall, I’m only human, and literally have two bucks in quarters in my pocket. Must…not…must…not…

[Doctor_Jackson]

@Rigamarole

There’s a whole discussion about this going on in GQ. Any group going all-in could have the tickets pre-printed. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone started preparing for a pot like this back when they lowered the odds months ago, and they end up winning on Wednesday.

Yes, and post #33 in that thread bears out what I say:

@Tired_and_Cranky

You have to buy the tickets in person and I think in most or all states, in cash. So you need an army of people walking around with $292 million. And you need the logistics to make sure that the tickets can be retrieved to find the winner. None of your buyers can steal cash or tickets and none can get mugged on the way to or from the lottery agent. This isn’t a trivial problem. This article suggests it’s not possible. Could you guarantee yourself a Powerball jackpot?

Furthermore, because of the likelihood of sharing the big prize, the expected value of the ticket only climbs above $2 when the grand prize is about $1.6 billion. We’re not there yet. Finally, if it gets there, you only expect to break even but there is risk in the distribution of those outcomes… Whether you make or lose money buying every ticket depends solely on being the only winner, or at least no worse than 1 of 2. According to that article, with 440 million tickets sold, you have only a 55% chance of being the sole winner or 1 of 2. With the greater number of tickets sold this week, the odds of multiple winners (and your odds of going bust) only climb.

Prebuying, even if allowed, wouldn’t help unless you could be sure that the pot would be big enough at some future time.