# \_\_ months to a vaccine (pick a number). How does it affect your behaviour? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 5, 2020, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204 "2020-05-05T18:16:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204/21 "2020-05-08T19:00:34Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [Quote=Beckdawrek] > … We’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. As I suspect you know that idiom has its origin in the Odyssey with Odysseus having to navigate his ship between Scylla and Charybdis. [/QUOTE] Actually the phrase is much newer, just over a century old, and derives from the terrible [Bisbee (Arizona) Deportation of 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bisbee_Deportation). Miners struck for better wages. Phelps-Dodge (now Freeport-McMoRan) induced the Cochise County Sheriff to deputize 2000 thugs and kidnap ~1300 strikers, suspected supporters, and bystanders, hauling them 200 miles in boxcars and dumping them without food or water in the New Mexico desert. Those kidnapees were stuck between a rock (the Bisbee mines) and a hard place (the desert’s dangers). Back to topic. MrsRico and I have no expectations. We are _able_ but not _comfortable_ to mask, distance, and sanitize, with no-contact grocery pickups, for the foreseeable future - but we must eventually deal with non-critical medical and dental matters. We _could_ await a vaccine for a year. Beyond that… it’s getting stressful already. We could at least use some joyrides - but where to? We’ll estimate safety. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204/22 "2020-05-08T19:26:33Z")
> [@Esprise\_Me](#): > > I’m apparently one of the less vulnerable. Every time a new article comes out saying “this group is more likely to die” or “that group is more likely to survive,” I’m in “that group.” The thought has crossed my mind that, at some point, if no vaccine is forthcoming but those who have had the disease appear to be immune, it might behoove me and the general population for me to get it and get it over with. We’re not at that point, even though the curve seems to have flattened out a bit where I live. And obviously, even if I’m not showing symptoms, I’m going to want to consider myself infected and stay away from vulnerable people, and once I start showing symptoms I’m going to want to quarantine myself entirely. But there may come a time when I’ll stop trying to avoid infection, in hopes of becoming part of the immune herd protecting those who wouldn’t survive. I can’t say exactly how many months away that point is. At least a few more. I’m in pretty much the same boat. Based on my understanding of the statistics, as a healthy 30-something with no comorbidity concerns, my risk of a seriously bad health outcome is minuscule. I, personally, don’t live in fear of catching the virus. However, I completely understand the idea of flattening the curve, protecting the vulnerable, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204/23 "2020-05-08T19:44:37Z")
I would suspect, as a 70-something with Type 2 diabetes, that I’m at the same risk as for the flu. Assuming no 100% effective vaccine (like the flu), but a solid treatment protocol for care, I’m guessing that life won’t change all that much as long as I take the same precautions that I do during flu “season”. I think I’ll have to be more vigilant with a mask and sanitizer, and be more aware of what I’m coming in contact with than I am now. ISTR that most older people who die from the flu actually die from pneumonia, rather than from the flu virus itself. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204/24 "2020-05-08T19:53:14Z")
> [@Esprise\_Me](#): > > But there may come a time when I’ll stop trying to avoid infection, in hopes of becoming part of the immune herd protecting those who wouldn’t survive. I can’t say exactly how many months away that point is. At least a few more. There is a good chance any immunity you get won’t last very long. If so doing as you suggest is a poor idea. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204/25 "2020-05-08T20:52:13Z")
> [@Esprise\_Me](#): > > I think there’s a canine coronavirus vaccine. And most human coronaviruses so far have just caused the common cold, so there hasn’t been quite the same incentive. (I’ve always said if there were a vaccine against any of the common cold viruses, I’d get it, but I’ve always been in the minority there.) So I don’t think it’s unrealistic to hope. But the timetable is more likely to be years rather than months. Yeah, the incentive hasn’t really been there- coronaviruses are SOME of the causes of the “common cold”, along with rhinoviruses and RSV-type viruses. And not even the main one… I suspect they will eventually develop a vaccine. But I also have a feeling that it’ll be more on the order of this time next year before it’s widely available. With that in mind, I think that it’s unreasonable to lock down for the duration- we were already starting to see a lot of cracks in the current lock-down and social distancing as it was. I’d have hoped that we’d have remained locked down until the testing and contact tracing capabilities were robust enough to contain any residual outbreaks, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. So what I suspect will happen is that we’ll un-lock, and that what we’ll see is another wave in a few months, we’ll lock back down before hospitals are overwhelmed, then unlock, lather, rinse, repeat. Once the vaccine’s widely available, we’ll stop seeing periodic lockdowns. As for me, I’m going to do my best to work from home and keep up the handwashing, mask wearing and social distancing, but not sweat take-out or stuff like that. I also fully expect to get the virus at some point- not getting it is probably not in the cards with young boys going back to school in the fall. ---
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204/26 "2020-05-08T22:56:14Z")
The idea of developing a proven-safe, proven-effective, and affordable vaccine, capable of being manufactured in the hundreds of millions, over a short time frame strikes me as a _very_ tall order. I will base my personal plans on no vaccine for years to come, so any surprise can only be pleasant. ---
**Author:** ![Esprise\_Me](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/esprise_me/32/2947_2.png) [@Esprise\_Me](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esprise_Me)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204/27 "2020-05-08T23:23:17Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > There is a good chance any immunity you get won’t last very long. If so doing as you suggest is a poor idea. As I said, this is conditioned on a scenario where “no vaccine is forthcoming but those who have had the disease appear to be immune.” How long that immunity would have to last for “getting it over with” to make sense is another good question along the lines of the OP. If immunity lasted only a few weeks, certainly it wouldn’t seem worthwhile. If it lasted a year or two, well, that might hold me over until we can realistically hope for a vaccine. If it lasts 10 years, that might be long enough for us to beat this thing. So what’s your definition of “not very long,” what’s your source on the “good chance,” and, if you think at least a year of immunity is likely, why don’t you think that’s worth something? ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204/28 "2020-05-08T23:28:07Z")
There is an unprecedented amount of effort being put into many parallel efforts to develop a vaccine in record time. For all of that, there is no guarantee that any of the vaccine candidates currently in development or trials will be safe or effective, and certainly not on any specific timeline which means there needs to be a focus on faster and more effective testing, track & trace efforts, the development of therapeutics to treat patients, a better understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms of the virus so we can better characterize and protect people who are truly at risk, and modification of social behaviors and vocational standards to limit epidemic spread. There have been many complaints that the current lockdown efforts in the US and elsewhere have been excessive but given what we’ve seen in countries where lockdown measures were implemented too late or ineffectually (which includes many parts of the US) we can see just how bad it could have been if no measures were taken. I have been pleasantly surprised to see that the overwhelming of hospitals has been limited to a few major urban areas but with many states easing restrictions even though their infection rates are rising and they have a lack of adequate sample testing I am still very concerned that a second wave with much greater mortality is still on the way. And we know almost nothing for certain about the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 much less have any way to evaluate its evolutionary potential to greater virulence. We don’t understand why it affects some populations more than others, or seems to strike at some severely, or even a good characterization of its basic infectivity and replication rate. Without this information, opening up restrictions is going to be a matter of experimenting on people to see what works and what makes things dramatically worse and because of the 2-3 week latency it makes sense to do this with great caution. As for the long term, we’re just going to have to live with a certain amount of both restrictions and risk if and until a working vaccine is discovered. Although this seems very alien to us in the developed world, the potential for randomly catching a virulent infectious disease has been with us for all of civilization with plagues routinely sweeping through populations with mortalities exceeding 20% or 30%, and civilization has more or less proceeded. This hopefully spurs on more investment in therapeutics and treatments for infectious pathogens, because as bad is it is, SARS-CoV-2 is a veritable love tap compared to how bad a virulent influenza pandemic could be. Strnger [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/__-months-to-a-vaccine-pick-a-number-how-does-it-affect-your-behaviour/853204.md?page=1)