# A chance for change in Iran. The non-shitty version. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 16, 2009, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967 "2009-06-16T17:53:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Sri\_Theo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f04885/32.png) [@Sri\_Theo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sri_Theo)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/1 "2009-06-16T17:53:04Z")
You may have heard Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is under a little pressure right now. But for those without the time to monitor endless twitter feeds this should get you up to date; [Awesome photo’s with informative captions](http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html) a must see to get some impression of the widespread violence that is occurring right now. [The beeb’s summary](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8103577.stm) [Huff post’s liveblog](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html) [fivethirtyeights analysis of the results](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/iranian-election-results-by-province.html) show some very improbable swings, has a few other good posts worth checking out. The gist of it is that the current president of Iran, Ahmadinejad declared himself winner of the recent elections by a staggering margin which raised a few queries considering recent opinion polls and prevailing popular opinion. The main challenger Moussavi raised a few points. 1. Both the main opposing candidates lost in their own home region and ethnic groups when they should have won. 2. The results that were coming out on an timely basis had a solid linear pattern raising the possibility of fraud although fivethirtyeight have disputed this. 3. Moussavi seems to be under house arrest. No-one knows where he is. 4. Text’s, Facebook, Twitter, newspapers, etc have been closed down before and after the election. 5. There have been plenty rumours of people being excluded from where vote counting was supposed to take place. 6. Previously the Iranian Government used to release election results by area but now they attempted to just show the overall result. I think somehow these have leaked out now. Whether you think the accusations are true or inflated (some supposed real results had Ahmadinejad coming in third) there’s no doubt something big is going down in Tehran. You know those moral police guys, the one’s that looked the girls in a burning building because they weren’t properly attired? Yeah there HQ has been burnt down after a riot that left one person dead and several others wounded after one of the morality guys opened fire. I think this will have massive consequences for Iran as they were possibly the most free elections in decades _and the candidates were hand picked by the supreme ruler!_ which resulted in this. Moussavi isn’t even that reformist, although he has advocated better rights for women and more diplomacy abroad **(fun fact many of the uniformed “police” you see beating people are in fact Hezbollah members, the Iranian government is using its proxies to oppress its own people)** Either the crack down will be so severe that the democracies chance will be crushed in the near future or the protesters will prevail. I’m not sure what’s going to happen but the word is that there will be a recount and there is a general strike planned. Anyone know the state of unions in Iran? 😛 So what do you guys see in Iran’s future, do you think this will succeed or have any affect- even if it’s just removing Ahmadinejad? Also no referring to George Bush or US politics in this thread, go [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=520995) for that stuff. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/2 "2009-06-16T17:57:46Z")
[http://iranelection2009.com/](http://iranelection2009.com/) ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/3 "2009-06-16T18:01:04Z")
[http://iran.twazzup.com/](http://iran.twazzup.com/) Take each tweet with a grain of salt, but they’ve generally been pretty reliable. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/4 "2009-06-16T18:06:47Z")
> [@Sri\_Theo](#): > > You know those moral police guys, the one’s that looked the girls in a burning building because they weren’t properly attired? That was [Saudi Arabia](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1874471.stm), not Iran. ---
**Author:** ![jk1245](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/49beb7/32.png) [@jk1245](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jk1245)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/5 "2009-06-16T18:08:19Z")
I can’t offer too much, but oddly the immediate thing I was struck with is why in the world would police uniforms and shields say “POLICE” in big English letters in a country that speaks mainly Persian? Even the graffiti is in Persian (or at least certainly not English). The Hezbollah notion is dead on, I would bet. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/6 "2009-06-16T18:26:08Z")
One thing that I think was made clear in the collapse of the Soviet bloc was that a truly authoritarian regime cannot survive the loss of fear among its people. A security apparatus can only control small numbers of disorganized people, not a mass movement. Imprisoning or even executing Moussavi may be too late by now. This is reason for optimism, in the long run. It’s mainly a matter of how many deaths will occur meanwhile. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/7 "2009-06-16T18:28:23Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > One thing that I think was made clear in the collapse of the Soviet bloc was that a truly authoritarian regime cannot survive the loss of fear among its people. A security apparatus can only control small numbers of disorganized people, not a mass movement. Imprisoning or even executing Moussavi may be too late by now. > > This is reason for optimism, in the long run. It’s mainly a matter of how many deaths will occur meanwhile. I don’t know, I am not sure Moussavi is going to be executed. It’s possible that he’s being protected from hardline conservatives as much as the establishment is being protected from what he might say in public. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/8 "2009-06-16T18:30:13Z")
I have very little optimism for real change in Iran. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Ahmedeijad actually did win the election, and they just rigged it so it looked like he got more votes than he did-- for whatever reason, one being to avoid a runoff election. Anyway, the clerics still run the country and without violent revolution, I don’t see that changing. Violent revolution would be a losing proposition for the pro-reform side. I don’t think enough of the country is behind it. Don’t be too fooled by the tweets and blogs-- only a minority of the more wealthy folks in Iran have access to that that technology and it’s easy to get a skewed impression of how widespread the protest is. Big, yes, but not big enough. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/9 "2009-06-16T18:31:43Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I have very little optimism for real change in Iran. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Ahmedeijad actually did win the election, and they just rigged it so it looked like he got more votes than he did-- for whatever reason, one being to avoid a runoff election. > > Anyway, the clerics still run the country and without violent revolution, I don’t see that changing. Violent revolution would be a losing proposition for the pro-reform side. I don’t think enough of the country is behind it. Don’t be too fooled by the tweets and blogs-- only a minority of the more wealthy folks in Iran have access to that that technology and it’s easy to get a skewed impression of how widespread the protest is. Big, yes, but not big enough. Revolutions are always carried out by a sizable minority. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/10 "2009-06-16T18:37:25Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > One thing that I think was made clear in the collapse of the Soviet bloc was that a truly authoritarian regime cannot survive the loss of fear among its people. A security apparatus can only control small numbers of disorganized people, not a mass movement. Imprisoning or even executing Moussavi may be too late by now. > > This is reason for optimism, in the long run. It’s mainly a matter of how many deaths will occur meanwhile. Well, China seemed to be able to crackdown pretty well after Tiannemen Square., but that was pretty isolated when one considers the size and scope of China, I suppose. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/11 "2009-06-16T18:44:15Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I have very little optimism for real change in Iran. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Ahmedeijad actually did win the election, and they just rigged it so it looked like he got more votes than he did-- for whatever reason, one being to avoid a runoff election. I would. Actual results were leaked from the Ministry of Elections, and Ahmadinejad came in third. Now, these might not be real, of course, but I find them a lot more convincing. > [@John Mace](#): > > I don’t think enough of the country is behind it. Don’t be too fooled by the tweets and blogs-- only a minority of the more wealthy folks in Iran have access to that that technology and it’s easy to get a skewed impression of how widespread the protest is. Big, yes, but not big enough. I disagree. The protests yesterday and today in Tehran were enormous, and do note that several members of the Revolutionary Guard were arrested for trying to get people in the army to join the people. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/12 "2009-06-16T18:45:26Z")
The thing is, even if Moussavi does replace Ahmadinejad, you’re not going to see much of a change. Moussavi is more diplomatic than Ahmadinejad, and more into open government, but they don’t radically disagree. Besides, the President of Iran doesn’t really have that much power anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/13 "2009-06-16T18:54:54Z")
Changing a little for the better is by far preferable to changing for the worse. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/14 "2009-06-16T19:02:18Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > The thing is, even if Moussavi does replace Ahmadinejad, you’re not going to see much of a change. Moussavi is more diplomatic than Ahmadinejad, and more into open government, but they don’t radically disagree. Besides, the President of Iran doesn’t really have that much power anyway. That’s probably for the best. Cementing the democratic process, giving a place at the table to the voices of liberalization, and having a more diplomatic face for us to deal with is in everyone’s best interests in the long run. Anything more than that would probably be incredibly disruptive. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/15 "2009-06-16T21:34:46Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > The thing is, even if Moussavi does replace Ahmadinejad, you’re not going to see much of a change. Moussavi is more diplomatic than Ahmadinejad, and more into open government, but they don’t radically disagree. Besides, the President of Iran doesn’t really have that much power anyway. True, but the people who start a revolution are rarely the ones who end up in charge at the end. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/16 "2009-06-16T22:44:28Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I don’t know, I am not sure Moussavi is going to be executed. The point is that it may not even matter what happens to him. The demonstrations seem to be about democracy, not a personality. If there’s a good-sized cadre of leadership talent that can obtain their followership, someone else will likely emerge from it. **Gangster** , the organization and size of the protests matter, as I said. The Tiananmen movement never had much cohesiveness or leadership, and that made it relatively easy to suppress. The same was true of the Iranian democrats after we killed Mossadegh and put the Shah and his secret police into power. **Captain Carrot** , when revolutions get started, they rarely stop with being “just a little better”. They keep building momentum, as more and more frustrations rise to the surface. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/17 "2009-06-16T23:15:47Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Besides, the President of Iran doesn’t really have that much power anyway. True, but the Supreme Leader gave his blessing to the “official” results immediately after they were first released a few hours after polls closed (even though he’s supposed to wait a few days first), and then blessed them a second time later. Thus, he painted himself into a corner if election fraud is proven (or even as long as its _not_ disproven). His fate and Ahmadinejad’s are intertwined. If Ahmadi gets kicked out, there’s a chance the Supreme Leader goes down with him, or at least is severely weakened in terms of popular support. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/18 "2009-06-16T23:51:08Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > **Captain Carrot** , when revolutions get started, they rarely stop with being “just a little better”. They keep building momentum, as more and more frustrations rise to the surface. You say this as if you think I disagree or find it undesirable. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/19 "2009-06-17T00:07:22Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Besides, the President of Iran doesn’t really have that much power anyway. [According to ex-Foreign Minister Ibrahim Yazdi, that has changed:](http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/443348) > [@](#): > > \*\*I’ve heard people say that President Ahmadinejad is gathering so much power that he might be able to use the Revolutionary Guard and his other allies to make a coup d’etat against the state. \*\* > > A coup d’etat? They’ve already made one! They’ve created a dictatorship, in fact. Do you know that last night the security forces occupied the offices of many newspapers, to make sure that their reporting on the election was favorable? They changed many headlines. They fixed the election. > > The Guards are taking over everything, including many economic institutions. The ministry of the interior is increasing its control in all the provinces. > > We have information that Ahmadinejad is thinking about changing the Constitution to allow the president to serve more than two terms, to make his presidency more or less permanent. > > Of course, there are strong voices in the establishment that will challenge him. It is not clear that he and the Sepah (the Revolutionary Guard) will be strong enough to overcome them. But there will be clashes over this. > > \*\*Where does the Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stand in regard to this? \*\* > > The problem is that there is concern about the relationship between the Leader and the Guards. To what extent can the Leader control or moderate the Guards? This is a difficult question. > > After the last election [2005], after Ahmadinejad was first elected, there were many questions raised about Ahmadinejad’s effort to isolate the Leader. We talked openly about this. This time, in preparation for the vote, they isolated him even further. For instance, in years past [former President] Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani was influential, perhaps even more influential than the leader. Now, with the slogans being used at Ahmadinejad’s rallies, things like “Death to Hashemi!”, they have created a deep rift. Khamenei has also lost the support of many high-ranking members of the clergy. > > Many old comrades of the [1979] revolution don’t trust Ahmadinejad. It is only the Sepah that supports him. > > \*\*And what do you mean by “isolating” the Leader? \*\* > > By monitoring and controlling the flow of information to him. Unfortunately, God will not reveal information to him directly. Where does he get his information, his data? The system works in such a way that information is very powerful. And Ahmadinejad controls the ministry of the interior, the ministry of information, the ministry of intelligence. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/20 "2009-06-17T00:08:59Z")
What’s interesting to me is the fact that both candidates were picked by the supreme counsel…hand picked really. So, regardless of who was ‘elected’, really it’s the same ole same ole. And yet…it seems that perhaps the Iranian people are nearer the breaking point than I thought they were (I actually have friends in Iran, my Uncle and his family lived there for years before the Shah went down). I was prepared to come into this thread and basically say that this is much ado about nothing, as my general feeling was similar to what John Mace said up thread…not enough of the population really feels strongly enough about this (or can over come their fear enough) to do anything meaningful. However, reading through the cites in the OP, I have to admit I haven’t been following this as closely as I thought, and perhaps I’ve been under rating what’s going on. Despite the fact that the candidates were hand picked, it seems that this BS election and the results were (perhaps) the spark that sets off the explosion. I know, from my friends in Iran, that people there have been simmering for a long time. It’s very much like I expect the Soviet citizens felt towards the end of the old USSR. Though, as someone pointed out up thread, my friends are not exactly a representative sampling of the population…they are technically savvy, well off financially, from more upper caste families (don’t wince guys…you are and you know you are) with higher level educations…so, my assumption has been that this was similar to the minority of discontent in Iraq in decade or so before the US invasion. Maybe my assumptions were wrong though. It’s hard to say from blogs and such just how wide spread this all is. -XT [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967.md?page=2)