# A chance for change in Iran. The non-shitty version. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 16, 2009, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967 "2009-06-16T17:53:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/181 "2009-06-25T13:50:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So the government has succeeding in squelching significant street protests with its use of force. And up to date no significant calls for general strikes. What are the paths from here? What are the likely outcomes? Nothing good. The protests will be put down with whatever brutality is needed. I also don’t believe the majority of the country cares enough to fight it. This China in 1989 not a Green Revolution. I also think that although the results were falsified the nutter would have won anyway after the second round. The independent poll showed that and he did win the last election by a similar score after the second round. It’s not like he’s deeply unpopular outside the relatively secular, reasonably affluent urban youth. In 18 months it will all be forgotten. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/182 "2009-06-25T15:03:55Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > … although the results were falsified the nutter would have won anyway after the second round. … > > … In 18 months it will all be forgotten. Your comment regarding that “the nutter” (easier to spell anyway!) would’ve won anyway in a runoff reminds me some of [this Economist article from last week](http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13856232). Why did they cheat when they didn’t really have to and why so badly? > [@](#): > > What could explain such an apparently blatant attempt to rig an election that, even had Mr Mousavi won, would have represented little threat to either the republic or its supreme leader? The most likely theory is of a plan gone awry. Given the line-up of institutions either controlled by Mr Khamenei or systematically packed with Mr Ahmadinejad’s supporters, and given that no incumbent president in Iran has yet lost to a challenger, it may have seemed safe to bet on the president’s victory. This would have brought the added satisfaction to many dyed-in-the-wool conservatives, possibly including Mr Khamenei, of weakening the position of Mr Rafsanjani, who has mounted a rearguard struggle to contain the president’s influence. > > Just to make sure, strong potential challengers, such as Mr Khatami and the popular, conservative mayor of Tehran, Muhammad Qalibaf, were “persuaded” by the supreme leader not to run. Compared with the ebullient, politically canny Mr Ahmadinejad, the three remaining challengers appeared drab and uninspiring. Mr Ahmadinejad felt so confident that he agreed to an unprecedented series of televised debates. His superior political skills gave him the advantage on screen, but his scorn for his rivals helped stir up a surge of sympathy for Mr Mousavi, dispelling the political apathy that normally pervades Iran’s middle class. > > Conservatives suddenly found themselves facing a torrent of youthful activists, their passion for change magnified by the spontaneous but effective use of simple symbols and modern communications. Stunned by this turn of events, Iran’s deep state appears to have opted for a last-minute, and therefore clumsy, attempt to alter the outcome in the president’s favour… > > … Mr Khamenei faces a deep quandary. A resolution to the crisis that fails to assuage the huge and growing mass of Mr Mousavi’s supporters would do permanent damage to his regime’s democratic pillar. Few Iranians would ever again deign to volunteer for the empty pageantry of voting. Yet giving in completely to their demands would expose his own weakness and fallibility. Underlying all this is the bitter irony that in its paranoia to avoid a “velvet revolution”, Iran’s deep state has itself engineered precisely the conditions that might make such a revolution happen. Between those two choices damaging the democratic pillar may be the preferred option to Khamenei and company. And those may be the only two that Khamenei has … but the Assembly of Experts and the rest of the Religious Council has a third path: Khamenei goes, the election is annulled, and Moussavi preserves the system mostly intact continuing to defer to the council and whoever the new Supreme leader is (I doubt Rafsenjani) as he would have if he had won in the first place. Where they will want Iran to go is still the great unknown. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/183 "2009-06-25T15:22:18Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > And those may be the only two that Khamenei has … but the Assembly of Experts and the rest of the Religious Council has a third path: Khamenei goes, the election is annulled, and Moussavi preserves the system mostly intact continuing to defer to the council and whoever the new Supreme leader is (I doubt Rafsenjani) as he would have if he had won in the first place. Where they will want Iran to go is still the great unknown. I don’t see why they have to do anything. As Robert Fisk said recently - they ‘hanged tens of thousands like thrushes’ in 1988(?) to no detrimental effect on the regime. They will do the same again if they have to. I think we sometimes underestimate how strong and long-living a regime can be when they have no constraints. Even more so when they have Allah on their side. Add in both the religious nutterism and the fact that a huge swathe of the population share in the nutterism and I can’t see anything changing. The extreme nutter wing has the guns and the street thugs to wield them. It might all implode a long way down the line but not this year or the next, next, next, next, next or next. Besides all we really have here is Tweedledum fighting with Tweedle-dee. Neither are anything but lunatic religious nut-cases. Even if the election was rerun and the Not-Quite-As-Openly-Batshit-Crazy party won we and the people in the street would notice little change. I sincerely hope i’m wrong though. Nothing would give me greater political pleasure than a genuinely democratic Iran although like Der Trihs I very much doubt they’d be anything but implacable foes of the West. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/184 "2009-06-25T15:38:54Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > I don’t see why they have to do anything. … Even doing nothing is doing something, that is, it is making a choice. So far the choice is option one: Let the pretense of having a democratic pillar be damned. And perhaps there would indeed be no consequence to that choice, despite my minimally informed belief that there would be. Why do _you_ think “the deep state” cheated the election given that nutter would likely have won a second round anyway and Moussavi would not likely have been anything other than compliant to the Council anyway if he _had_ won? BTW, let me be clear, none of the possible paths that I am suggesting include a completely democratic Iran. My best case is a preservation of the less powerful democratic pillar and an ascendency of a less nutty wing in the Religious Council that sees engagement and moderation as a better path forward. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/185 "2009-06-25T16:04:10Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > In 18 months it will all be forgotten. I seriously doubt that; things have already gone too far. People have been hurt and killed, there’s been open dissension among the leadership, and the facade of democracy has been broken. This isn’t going to be forgotten anytime soon. ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/186 "2009-06-25T16:39:41Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I seriously doubt that; things have already gone too far. People have been hurt and killed, there’s been open dissension among the leadership, and the facade of democracy has been broken. This isn’t going to be forgotten anytime soon. Reza Aslan, a guest on last night’s Rachel Maddow show (transcript [here](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31545521/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show/), about 3/4 of the way down) made a couple of points which I considered interesting. The first was that there is now an obvious split among the people who were once united against the Shah and the Great Satan; and the other was that the revolution against the Shah simmered for more than a year before it broke out in full force. Disclaimers: I haven’t done any particular research that would corroborate or contradict either of the above points. In addition, Mr Aslan has a book that he’s flogging, which in my mind makes anything he says just a tad more likely to be self-serving. Nevertheless, this reinforces my tendency to agree with **Der Trihs** on this one: we’re a long way from seeing the endgame. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/187 "2009-06-26T12:52:47Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I seriously doubt that; things have already gone too far. People have been hurt and killed, there’s been open dissension among the leadership, and the facade of democracy has been broken. This isn’t going to be forgotten anytime soon. Again, I refer you to China. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/188 "2009-06-26T13:07:39Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Even doing nothing is doing something, that is, it is making a choice. So far the choice is option one: Let the pretense of having a democratic pillar be damned. And perhaps there would indeed be no consequence to that choice, despite my minimally informed belief that there would be. > > Why do _you_ think “the deep state” cheated the election given that nutter would likely have won a second round anyway and Moussavi would not likely have been anything other than compliant to the Council anyway if he _had_ won? Two answers. First - they are rank amateurs at rigging ballot boxes. Second - for the sake of presenting to their enemies a united front they did not want it either to go to a second round or have it appear in the vote tallies that there is any serious opposition among the voters to Lunatic Nutterism. I do so hope I’m wrong but I see the same bargain being struck (and to a great extent this bargain has been tacitly in place for some time) as in China and Russia. You don’t take democracy seriously and we won’t interfere too much with the well off and/or educated being a little western and consumerist. I saw an interesting documentary looking at China and Russia and the supposed natural agents of capitalism = democracy were absolutely explicit that they knew this was the deal. More freedom in private so long as you left politics to the right sort of politician. This is what will happen in Iran. After the crackdown and the bloodshed draws a line in the sand that relatively progressive forces understand the consequence of crossing the status quo will resume. Worked in eastern europe for decades. Worked in China. Worked in Iran after the Islamic Terror of the end of the eighties and it sure as hell worked in Iraq for a long time under Saddam. It’s still working across all the assorted Beserkistan’s in Asia with dictators we kow-tow to for strategic reasons. But like I said - I’d be delighted to be proved wrong. It works everywhere where the rulers are both strong and utterly ruthless. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/189 "2009-06-26T13:56:07Z")
> [@OttoDaFe](#): > > Reza Aslan, a guest on last night’s Rachel Maddow show (transcript [here](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31545521/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show/), about 3/4 of the way down) made a couple of points which I considered interesting. The first was that there is now an obvious split among the people who were once united against the Shah and the Great Satan; and the other was that the revolution against the Shah simmered for more than a year before it broke out in full force. > > Disclaimers: I haven’t done any particular research that would corroborate or contradict either of the above points. In addition, Mr Aslan has a book that he’s flogging, which in my mind makes anything he says just a tad more likely to be self-serving. Nevertheless, this reinforces my tendency to agree with **Der Trihs** on this one: we’re a long way from seeing the endgame. Umm, having a book to sell does nothing to hurt one’s credibility, particularly since the dude really knows what he’s talking about. The book is great, I read it last month and it’s not about Iran specifically. I saw him on the Daily Show the other day and he said something very poignant that Iran has two paths, North Korea or China. I have for a very long time hoped they’d go the China route. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/190 "2009-06-26T14:09:23Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > Again, I refer you to China. And how is communism doing in China these days? The Middle Kingdom may not be free, yet, but you can’t deny that it’s a completely different country than it was 20 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/191 "2009-06-26T14:29:40Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > And how is communism doing in China these days? > > The Middle Kingdom may not be free, yet, but you can’t deny that it’s a completely different country than it was 20 years ago. Yes I can. Same country, same rulers governing through the Communist Party structures and same problems. Just richer. And no democracy. It’s the prime example how education, access to information etc etc does not necessitate democracy. Tieneman Square drew a bloody line in the sand that has remained uncrossed for two decades. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/192 "2009-06-26T15:03:21Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > Yes I can. Same country, same rulers governing through the Communist Party structures and same problems. Just richer. And no democracy. > > It’s the prime example how education, access to information etc etc does not necessitate democracy. Tieneman Square drew a bloody line in the sand that has remained uncrossed for two decades. Oh yay, I do so love oversimplifying equivalencies. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/193 "2009-06-26T15:16:07Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Oh yay, I do so love oversimplifying equivalencies. :rolleyes: So. You tell me. In what way is China a totally different country when nothing politically has changed. We are (or were until the bankers destroyed it all) richer. We’re ruled by the same political structures etc etc. Do we get to be completely different countries too? And besides - China being richer etc had absolutely nothing to do with the aborted democratic uprising. Now - Iran before and after the Shah. There you have ‘two different countries’. Here we have two extreme, illiberal religious nutters squabbling over whether the Violent Religious Nutters Party or the Extremely Violent Religious Nutters Party won the election. It wouldn’t make a blind bit of difference if they re-run the election and the Slightly Less Crazy Mullah won. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/194 "2009-06-26T15:17:19Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > So. You tell me. In what way is China a totally different country when nothing politically has changed. We are (or were until the bankers destroyed it all) richer. We’re ruled by the same political structures etc etc. Do we get to be completely different countries too? Things have changed politically. Your question is not a valid question. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/195 "2009-06-26T15:48:14Z")
I have created a thread to discuss the very interesting question of how much China has changed over the past 20 years. Please join it [here.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11282685#post11282685) In this thread I’ll merely point out that the circumstance in China was very different. It was a limited student movement and the bulk of the population was uninvolved and really probably uniinterested. You also had Asian culture which has a much longer tradition of valuing not making trouble and that the individual should be subsumed for the good of the group. The discontent in Iran is much more pervasive and growing as even some of those who did not vote for Moussavi are upset that the democratic pillar is such a sham. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2009, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/196 "2009-06-27T00:33:34Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > Yes I can. Same country, same rulers governing through the Communist Party structures and same problems. Just richer. And no democracy. > > It’s the prime example how education, access to information etc etc does not necessitate democracy. Tieneman Square drew a bloody line in the sand that has remained uncrossed for two decades. If you had been in China back then and then again now, I don’t think you would believe it to be true that it’s the same country. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2009, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/197 "2009-06-28T00:15:50Z")
So [Where in The World Is Ali Rafsanjani?](http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1096070.html) > [@](#): > > A few days later, when the demonstrations in the streets of Tehran were at their height, Rafsanjani’s daughter Faezeh and a number of other family members were arrested, but they were released within two days. During this time, Rafsanjani’s voice was not heard. However, Rafsanjani’s silence is more thunderous in Iran than anyone else’s voice, and if anyone can attack Khamenei directly, it is him. The rumors were that he had gone to the holy city of Qom in order to organize a revolt of senior clerics, not only against the election but also against Khamenei himself. > > If there is a channel ripe for a revolution in Iran, it is not in the demonstrating masses, who are mustering tremendous courage in face of the violent suppression by the police and volunteer vigilantes who operate under instructions from the Revolutionary Guard. The revolution will have to come via the same ayatollahs who brought about the 1979 revolution, through the system itself. > > This is giving Khamenei cause to worry. Within the ranks of the clerical-political elite that rules Iran, Rafsanjani, as that sensitive “political barometer,” is registering the scent of the wounded animal that can now be brought down. If the assessments coming out of Iran can be relied upon, Rafsanjani will not be content only with ridding the political arena of Ahmadinejad, but also aims to become the country’s spiritual leader himself and to depose Khamenei, whose appointment he aided 20 years ago… > > … Is there a chance this will happen? Rafsanjani serves as chairman of the two strongest political bodies in the country. One is the Expediency Discernment Council, which has the role of finding compromises between parliamentary legislation and the position of the Council of Guardians, which represents Khamenei’s positions absolutely. The other is the Assembly of Experts, which appoints or dismisses the supreme leader. The chairman can control the agenda for deliberations and direct the decisions, but Rafsanjani’s real power lies in his ability to set political traps that will ultimately allow him to control the decision-making processes in these councils. > > However, Rafsanjani has also had some resounding failures, the most important being the previous election, when Ahmadinejad defeated him. In the years prior to that election Rafsanjani had skipped back and forth between reformism and conservatism, and did not manage to brand himself in a way that would enable either conservatives or reformists to vote for him. If Rafsanjani is working something behind the scenes there is so far nothing to show for it, at least that is visible to those of us on the outside. OTOH his silence, his not being by Khamenei’s side or explicitly expressing his support means something as well. If nothing else he has been, according to that article, “the ultimate barometer of the political mood in Iran”. He knows how the pressures change and can predict with some accuracy how the winds will blow. If this was going to clearly fizzle he’d be public in support of Khamenei. And he is not. And now back to the news channels all Michael Jackson all the time. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2009, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/198 "2009-06-28T04:26:55Z")
Looks like injured protesters are being seized in hospitals. Story [here](http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/27/iran.protests/index.html). ---
**Author:** ![Uzi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/91b2a8/32.png) [@Uzi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uzi)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2009, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/199 "2009-06-28T04:57:39Z")
I was watching CNN this morning. Apparently, the Mexican ambassador from Iran is claiming that the girl who was shot (can’t remember her name, but she is famous now because of it) was shot by the CIA. He states that the CIA and terrorists use this particular type of bullet, but that Iran does not. No explanation of what caliber the bullet was, but the Iranians do produce a version of the AK47 (assuming this is the terrorist weapon referred to). Here is a related article on [CNN](http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/25/iran.ambassador/index.html). He wasn’t as forthcoming as he was on the Wolf Blitzer show that I saw. The thing that bugged me was Blitzer’s commentary by calling these ‘Serious Allegations’. Serious allegations are ones that have some aspect of truth to them. I never understood why a reporter in this situation doesn’t ask something like, “What would Allah think of you lying like this?”, or “Who do you expect to believe such crap?”. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2009, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/200 "2009-06-28T07:39:16Z")
Her name is Neda. Yeah, that’s some serious bullshit. The CIA killed her…riiiight. Why would the CIA waste a bullet when there are plenty of people being killed as it is? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967.md?page=11)