# A chance for change in Iran. The non-shitty version. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 16, 2009, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967 "2009-06-16T17:53:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/41 "2009-06-17T13:40:34Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > True, but the people who start a revolution are rarely the ones who end up in charge at the end. A notable counterexample to this is, well, Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/42 "2009-06-17T13:53:29Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > :shrug: I gave you some already. > > At some point you have to wonder who the “leadership” really is, don’t you? > > Revolutions do happen, **Sam**. Authoritarian regimes do get overthrown, even when they haven’t “lost their will to live” or their ability to respond to dissent. That even happened in Iran itself when the Shah was overthrown. Oh, I agree that revolutions happen, and sometimes the good guys win, and hopefully that’s what we’re seeing now. It would be wonderful. I just don’t think they’re inevitable. A lot will depend on just how brutal the Iranian authorities are willing to get. The examples I gave were uprisings or attempts at revolution which went nowhere because the authorities were willing to crack down with considerable violence. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/43 "2009-06-17T14:01:05Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > I would. Actual results were leaked from the Ministry of Elections, and Ahmadinejad came in third. Where are you getting this info from? > [@](#): > > I disagree. The protests yesterday and today in Tehran were enormous, and do note that several members of the Revolutionary Guard were arrested for trying to get people in the army to join the people. I said they were big. If you want to call them enormous, that’s fine with me. I don’t see any evidence that the Guardian Council is going to give in or that enough of the populace is behind the protesters. The Supreme Leader will find some scapegoat to blame for a few election “irregularities”, and then get back to business as usual. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/44 "2009-06-17T14:59:48Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Why? It’s quite easy to publish numbers supporting Ahmadinejad if you just make them up, and it’s quite likely that’s what happened. Also, it appears that they _haven’t_ actually managed to pull it off, judging by the response. Yes, they have. Don’t expect regime change any sooner than 2013. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/45 "2009-06-17T15:00:59Z")
> [@Uzi](#): > > It certainly changes the many discussions we’ve had here revolving around Iran, nuclear weapons, and who actually is in charge in Iran. The religious leaders or Ahmadinejad who pretty much wants to wipe Israel from the map. He **says** that, but it’s probably just a talking point. (The religious leaders would actually mean it.) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/46 "2009-06-17T15:11:38Z")
> [@Sri\_Theo](#): > > \*\*And also I remembered/found what the moral police are called, its the **Basij** and they are a paramilitary group under the control of the revolutionary guard, basically doing their dirty work, bullying people, harassing lone protesters. Think brown shirts. :mad: [Godwin!](http://xkcd.com/261/) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/47 "2009-06-17T15:14:12Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Revolutions do happen, **Sam**. Authoritarian regimes do get overthrown, even when they haven’t “lost their will to live” or their ability to respond to dissent. That even happened in Iran itself when the Shah was overthrown. And many of the Iranian people remember the revolutionary frenzy of 1979 and its aftermath, and – even if they remember it with a certain fondness, the way some Boomers remember the '60s and some Chinese remember the Cultural Revolution – would probably rather endure any tyranny than go through anything like that ever again. If you’re doing well enough out of the present social order, you don’t want it overthrown. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/48 "2009-06-17T15:18:37Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Oh, I agree that revolutions happen, and sometimes the good guys win, and hopefully that’s what we’re seeing now. It would be wonderful. :dubious: Ya think?! See post #23. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/49 "2009-06-17T15:20:12Z")
> [@Sri\_Theo](#): > > Some people are claiming that Der Spiegel and Voice of America have reported up to 5,000 Hizbullah members in Tehran but I haven’t been able to track down the report so it would be great if anyone can do that. For what its’ worth, I’ve just scanned through Der Spiegel’s English-language website and found no mention of Hizbullah involvement. ETA: But [Andrew Sullivan](http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/theyve-brought-in-5000-hezbollah-for-a-showdown.html) says: > [@](#): > > That’s what [Der Spiegel](http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,630463-2,00.html) is attributing to Voice of America. They’re desperate and this is going to get bloodier. The linked-to webpage is in German, so is anyone able to translate for us? ---
**Author:** ![Sri\_Theo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f04885/32.png) [@Sri\_Theo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sri_Theo)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/50 "2009-06-17T15:46:02Z")
**Sam Stone** You raise some good points, but I don’t think the situation is as pessimistic as you make it out to be. First you mention that a lot depends on how violent the regime is willing to get, I don’t think oppression is the killer card you make it out to be. For all of Iran’s faults the people there have been relatively free, compared to their neighbours of Iraq and Afghanistan, they easily travel between cities and abroad- so any violence may backfire spectacularly- The Iranians know how to pull off a revolution 🙂 Also there is the influence of Ayatollah Montazeri to contend with, and I wonder how [this report](http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/17/2600571.htm) affects your judgement, a foreign journalist says that members of the special forces were de facto protecting some protesters from a larger pro-government crowd. I wish we had a clearer view of what was occurring within the governmental structures. Also some members of the EP seem to believe the leaked results, although it is the Greens and MEP’s seem to be generally nutty so that doesn’t mean so much. What does anyone think about the demands of the posters, may be far fetched but that might help them in the long run. Thanks **EddyTeddyFreddy** I have some friends I can ask to translate that for me, might be a bit more useful then google translate. Oh and mea culpa on mixing up the Girls school fire incident, should have known better. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/51 "2009-06-17T16:24:38Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > :mad: [Godwin!](http://xkcd.com/261/) Godwin is a reference to Hitler. Comparing the Basij to brown shirts is entirely appropriate. Those guys are 16 year old kids that beat women in the street for having their locks inappropriately covered by their Hijab. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/52 "2009-06-17T16:43:20Z")
[Andrew Sullivan](http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/) is all-Iran, all the time, right now, and he appears to have plenty of lines to lots of sources in the belly of the rampaging beast. Here’s his quote of a message from one of his readers, in [today’s current entry](http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/yes-they-can.html): > [@](#): > > My wife’s grandmother, uncle and aunt still live in Tehran and she spoke to them on Monday - they said that the atmosphere at the polling booth on Friday was unlike any other election since the revolution and hope for some real change soon. For what it’s worth, not one of them thinks Obama should be saying anything more than he has - that’s partly what made the Shah so hated. I would also say that anyone who doesn’t think that Obama’s No Ruz message and his speech in Cairo didn’t contribute at least something to this uprising doesn’t know any Iranians - the feeling of hope that Obama gave to Americans and people all over the world (rightly or wrongly…) has trickled down to Iranians. On a human level, as well, everyone knows how far a little respect can go. > > [apparently AS snips part of the message; then:] > > Also for what it’s worth, anybody who thinks that this is going to blow over soon should remember the revolution where exactly the same thing was said about the protestors against the Shah. Not saying it’s the same thing but Iranians have staying power and have a talent for revisiting the same grievances for a long time (I’m thinking of the still fermenting ire about 1953; plus also personal dealings with my wife!). Sullivan goes on to draw some interesting parallels between Obama and Mousavi’s campaigns and election, and says: > [@](#): > > If you weren’t aware of what had happened in the weeks before the election, the sudden explosion of outrage wouldn’t make much sense. But the expectations were everything. And as Tocqueville understood, nothing is more combustible than the dashing of raised expectations. That’s how revolutions happen. But because the MSM hadn’t covered the expectations, they had no resources to understand or cover the aftermath of the vote-stealing. From what I’ve seen so far, Sullivan appears to have some of the best coverage of what’s happening now – certainly considerably more depth to it than what I’m seeing in the mainstream broadcast media. ---
**Author:** ![TorpedoTed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/da6949/32.png) [@TorpedoTed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TorpedoTed)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/53 "2009-06-17T16:48:27Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > For > ETA: But [Andrew Sullivan](http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/theyve-brought-in-5000-hezbollah-for-a-showdown.html) says: > The linked-to webpage is in German, so is anyone able to translate for us? > [@](#): > > Nach Berichten des Senders “Voice of America” sollen bis zu 5000 libanesische Kämpfer der Hisbollah-Miliz dem Regime beim Showdown zur Hand gehen. Roughly, “According to reports by the broadcaster ‘Voice of America’, up to 5000 Lebanese fighters from the Hizbullah militia assisted the regieme in the showdown.” That’s the only mention of Hizbullah in the article–again, second hand. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/54 "2009-06-17T17:16:53Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Yes, they have. Don’t expect regime change any sooner than 2013. It’s been _five days_, depending on how you count Friday and today. Don’t you think it’s a tad early to conclude that Ahamdinejad will retain power? ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/55 "2009-06-17T17:33:38Z")
A lot of you don’t like this guy because he’s kind of a hard right commentator, but he has a lot of insight and pretty good connections. [http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle\_East/KF16Ak01.html](http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak01.html) > [@](#): > > If Tehran were playing a two-sided chess game with Washington, a moderate face like that of Hossein Mousavi would have served Iranian interests better than Ahmadinejad, as Pipes suggests. But Tehran also has to send signals to the sidelines of the chess match. With the situation on its eastern border deteriorating and a serious threat emerging to the Shi’ites of Pakistan, Iran has to make its militancy clear to all the players in the region. Washington’s ill-considered attempts at coalition building are more a distraction than anything else. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/56 "2009-06-17T18:04:44Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Where are you getting this info from? [Iran protests: live - 17 June 2009 | News | theguardian.com](http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2009/jun/17/iran-uprising) The one at 6:15 PM. > [@John Mace](#): > > I said they were big. If you want to call them enormous, that’s fine with me. I don’t see any evidence that the Guardian Council is going to give in or that enough of the populace is behind the protesters. How about the fact that an Ayatollah has called for an emergency meeting of the Guardians’ Council? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/57 "2009-06-17T18:26:53Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > It’s been _five days_, depending on how you count Friday and today. Don’t you think it’s a tad early to conclude that Ahamdinejad will retain power? It is certainly not too early to **hope** he will. The alternatives . . . see post #23. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/58 "2009-06-17T19:40:00Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It is certainly not too early to **hope** he will. The alternatives . . . see post #23. Would you please stop referring to your own posts as if they were the Word of God? It’s annoying, especially as they are merely your opinion, and not everyone who reads them neccessarily agrees with them. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/59 "2009-06-17T19:52:21Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Would you please stop referring to your own posts as if they were the Word of God? It’s annoying, especially as they are merely your opinion, and not everyone who reads them neccessarily agrees with them. Perhaps not, but no one in this thread has expressed disagreement yet (except WRT the relative popular support of seculars vs. religionists). Anyway, referring to one’s earlier post is merely a way to avoid repeating oneself. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2009, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/60 "2009-06-17T20:40:38Z")
I’ve read this quote several times, but thought I’d post it with a question: (From [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/17/iran.eyewitnesses/index.html)) > [@](#): > > Some Moussavi supporters, however, remained firm – even as they accused those outside Iran of turning a blind eye to their plight. > > “We are fighting with our lives and the world is just watching,” said Ali, a Tehran University student who asked that his full name not be used. “They see how the government is trying to silence us, how they are beating us – but they don’t come to our help. It’s OK. We will succeed, even if we have to fight alone.” My question is…what do these guys think we could do? Or that the European’s, or anyone else could do? I can’t see how we could do anything at all, to be honest. ☹ -XT [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967.md?page=4)