# A chance for change in Iran. The non-shitty version. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 16, 2009, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967 "2009-06-16T17:53:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/161 "2009-06-21T22:03:24Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Do they have a wall or something that Obama can tell them to tear down? That might help. Haha yeah. That’s how Reagan won the cold war all by himself after all. ---
**Author:** ![Sri\_Theo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f04885/32.png) [@Sri\_Theo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sri_Theo)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/162 "2009-06-21T23:59:43Z")
I thought we agreed at the beginning of this thread that all the US stuff belongs in the other thread. _I even linked it for you._ So on to discussing Iran, the rather brutal video posted by **struan** up above is of a girl called Nada dying, there are other video’s of the attack but she was shot by a Basij while standing around protesting, her father, fellow students and lecturers were all around her. She’s become something of a symbol as her name apparently means ‘voice’ in farsi and shows the brutality of the Basij. Also interesting are reports that Rafsanjani is trying to convene the council of experts, which is the only body with the power to remove the supreme leader. He’s doing this from Quatar as most of his family in Iran have been arrested. Further hope for the protesters comes from the Press TV (the govt. TV channel) admitting that accusations of vote rigging were true to a degree. They said that in 50 of the 160 areas where the opposition said that more people voted then were registered the accusations were true. I think this will have a large affect on those who may have believed the government. Also you all have to see the video on the front page of the BBC news website. It’s pretty awesome. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/163 "2009-06-22T01:03:05Z")
If anyone wants a link to that Press TV report - well [here it is.](http://www.presstv.ir/detail/98711.htm?sectionid=351020101) Hey, it’s “only 50 cities” Anybody who is in position to get a feel of how “the Arab street” is taking this across the region so far? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/164 "2009-06-22T03:48:47Z")
Yep, [that “only”](http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/21/iran.election/index.html) was the critical bit. > [@](#): > > Iran’s election authority has rejected claims of voting irregularities by a defeated presidential candidate, while acknowledging that the number of ballots cast in dozens of cities exceeded the number of eligible voters there, state-run TV reported Monday. … Council spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei said voting in those locations did not noticeably affect the outcome of the election, adding that the council will continue to investigate complaints that are filed through “legal channels,” Press TV said. The council declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner of the June 12 election. Meanwhile, this [Jerusalem Post article](http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1245184891821&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull) is the best I can find regarding the reactions across the Arab world. > [@](#): > > Many Arab governments, including the Palestinian Authority, are quietly hoping that the latest crisis in Iran will mark the beginning of the end of the radical regime of the ayatollahs and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. … Yet the Arab heads of state and their government officials appear to be doing their utmost to downplay the Iran crisis. They are obviously concerned that their constituents would follow suit and demand reforms and free elections. > > Invoking Palestinian terminology, Arab editors and columnists have been describing the anti-government protests in Iran as an intifada. > > “The pro-Iran camp in the Arab world is very worried,” said Abdel Rahman Rashed in an op-ed in the London-based Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. “It’s natural for Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other pro-Iran groups to be afraid because their existence depends solely on the radical regime in Iran. If anything bad happens to this regime, they will suffer even more.” … Like many of his colleagues throughout the Arab world, Barghouti expected the crisis in Iran to escalate, resulting ultimately in the downfall of the ayatollahs. “The winds of change will eventually reach the top brass of the Iranian regime,” remarked Palestinian columnist Muwafak Matar. “What’s happening there is more than a power struggle in the regime. It could be the beginning of a new era of awareness among the young people, who are aspiring for stability and rejoining the international community. They want a new Iran that does not interfere in the internal affairs of its neighbors or countries that are far away.” > > Noting that Teheran had been meddling in the internal affairs of the Palestinians, Lebanese and Egyptians over the past few years, another Palestinian columnist, Rajab Abu Siriyyeh, said he did not rule out the possibility that Obama’s conciliatory approach to the Arabs and Muslims could have been one of the main reasons why tens of thousands of Iranians decided to take to the streets. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/165 "2009-06-22T03:57:17Z")
They’ve now placed most of te blame for fomenting this unrest on the UK and are expelling the BBC’s main reporter there, Jon Leyne. A pity, because he really did seem to bend over backward to be fair in his reporting. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/166 "2009-06-22T04:04:47Z")
Has anyone else considered that if there was a really radical regime change in Iran, that we might just have a golden opportunity for a reapproachment between Iran and the US due to the current US President? I know, it’s a BIG ‘if’…but, well, it could be an ‘if’ that seriously brings about a radical change in the ME and in future American relations there. Or, it could simply fizzle, or blow up in all our collective faces. Pretty terrifying, all in all… -XT ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/167 "2009-06-22T12:20:37Z")
To be blunt, I won’t be confident of regime change until mullahs are being hanged in the streets and/or driven into exile. Otherwise it’ll be a lot of noise that’ll gradually fade away before the country reverts to business as usual, with government propaganda sanitizing the historical record. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/168 "2009-06-23T03:43:53Z")
> [@Struan](#): > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbdEf0QRsLM](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbdEf0QRsLM) > > \*Not \*_at all \*\* safe for work_. This is film of a young woman dying after having being shot. I think she has been shot in the leg and it has gone deflected right up inside her body. In any case she doesn’t live long and she drowns in her own blood. There’s another video of that poor lassies death from the front but I won’t link to it. And it turns out she wasn’t even a protester. BBC is saying now she was nearby, sitting in a car with her music teacher, when she got out to stretch her legs. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/169 "2009-06-23T16:09:29Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Has anyone else considered that if there was a really radical regime change in Iran, that we might just have a golden opportunity for a reapproachment between Iran and the US due to the current US President? I know, it’s a BIG ‘if’…but, well, it could be an ‘if’ that seriously brings about a radical change in the ME and in future American relations there. > > Or, it could simply fizzle, or blow up in all our collective faces. Pretty terrifying, all in all… > > -XT Not only do I think it’s possible, but I think it is kind of puzzling that you think it would be an ‘if’ rather than an absolute certainty. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/170 "2009-06-23T16:14:51Z")
I don’t think that regime change is at all certain at this point…in fact, I think it’s a rather low order of probability right now (though higher than I would have thought, say, a month ago). -XT ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/171 "2009-06-23T16:18:50Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > I don’t think that regime change is at all certain at this point…in fact, I think it’s a rather low order of probability right now (though higher than I would have thought, say, a month ago). > > -XT I meant rapprochement is certain if there is regime change. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/172 "2009-06-23T16:21:22Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I meant rapprochement is certain if there is regime change. Why ? A change of government doesn’t automatically mean the new government will like us, or that we will suddenly start treating them better. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/173 "2009-06-23T16:21:31Z")
[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124571865270639351.html?wtf](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124571865270639351.html?wtf) > [@](#): > > When Mr. Alipour didn’t return home that night, his parents began to worry. All day, they had heard gunshots ringing in the distance. His father, Yousef, first called his fiancée and friends. No one had heard from him. > > At the crack of dawn, his father began searching at police stations, then hospitals and then the morgue. > > Upon learning of his son’s death, the elder Mr. Alipour was told the family had to pay an equivalent of $3,000 as a **“bullet fee”** —a fee for the bullet used by security forces—before taking the body back, relatives said. > > Mr. Alipour told officials that his entire possessions wouldn’t amount to $3,000, arguing they should waive the fee because he is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war. According to relatives, morgue officials finally agreed, but demanded that the family do no funeral or burial in Tehran. Kaveh Alipour’s body was quietly transported to the city of Rasht, where there is family. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/174 "2009-06-23T16:21:59Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] I meant rapprochement is certain if there is regime change. [/QUOTE] Ah…well, the big if I was referring too concerned regime change. So, there was some confusion there. I probably could have worded my post better, but I was posting while doing a major VLAN deployment on the customers site (after being on site something like 30 hours)…always a bad thing. -XT ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/175 "2009-06-23T16:23:19Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Why ? A change of government doesn’t automatically mean the new government will like us, or that we will suddenly start treating them better. The Iranian people don’t hate us as a whole. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/176 "2009-06-23T16:24:02Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124571865270639351.html?wtf](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124571865270639351.html?wtf) Really stupid of the government if that’s true. > [@mswas](#): > > The Iranian people don’t hate us as a whole. That doesn’t mean that a new government won’t. And the people as a whole DO support, for example, Iranian nuclear weapons, which we insist that they aren’t allowed to have. And our hostility towards them has little to do with their present government; we were their enemy before it existed. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/177 "2009-06-23T16:29:43Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Really stupid of the government if that’s true. Yes, incredibly so. > [@](#): > > That doesn’t mean that a new government won’t. And the people as a whole DO support, for example, Iranian nuclear weapons, which we insist that they aren’t allowed to have. And our hostility towards them has little to do with their present government; we were their enemy before it existed. Doesn’t mean that it has to be that way going forward. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/178 "2009-06-23T16:33:14Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Doesn’t mean that it has to be that way going forward. But it doesn’t mean it won’t be either. You said that “rapprochement is certain”; not merely possible. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/179 "2009-06-23T23:55:35Z")
From CNN : [Mullahs join march](http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/23/iran.protest.faces/index.html) to protest election results. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967/180 "2009-06-25T13:46:00Z")
So the government has succeeding in squelching significant street protests with its use of force. And up to date no significant calls for general strikes. What are the paths from here? What are the likely outcomes? Perhaps Rafsanjani will get the Assembly of Experts to remove Khamenei. As a group they are in his camp but having the spine to take that step may a bit much for them. Yet that is the only good path I see left as Khamenei has painted himself in with no option to significantly compromise now. At least it is the case that compromises that may have been acceptable before now will not be enough and ones that were possible before are now specifically excluded and agreeing to them would be impossible for him. Well Khamenei has one option for a somewhat face saving compromise. In the face of country wide shut down from general strikes he could get Ahmadinejad to resign of his own free will and of his own idea “for the good of the country” and then be “forced” to call for new elections or to appoint a compromise new administration. But not gonna happen. The alternative is that protests slowly fizzle into a repressed resentment in which the population feels they have no choice but to live with the knowledge that the democratic facet of their government is a complete farce and that there is nothing they can do about it but to wear the yoke. A fight behind the scenes continues in the Religious Council even as Khamenei prevails and more members of Parliament passively resist full cooperation with the President. Regionally Iran is weakened and discredited some as a model modern Islamic state. In turn their proxies also will lose some face and some credibility with the Arab street. Perhaps the initial reaction to such a circumstance will be greater bluster and saber rattling to try to change the narrative but the actors interested in marginalizing Iran will find greater agreement and less resistance to actions designed to isolate the government further as they, even while the option of sitting down to talk is explicitly kept open. After the bluster the persistent voices of discontent within the Council and within Parliament get some real engagement to occur and some actual reforms to happen in order to try to move the state forward. Or it becomes a completely repressed state along the lines of what was Taliban controlled Afganistan. The nuclear program proceeds. Israel slows it down by bombing the suspected sites and all Hell breaks loose. I don’t think that fits the op’s “non-shitty version” request though. Any other possibilities? What do you think are the probabilities? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-chance-for-change-in-iran-the-non-shitty-version/499967.md?page=10)