# A coming retirement crisis? Are you worried? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [December 18, 2019, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024 "2019-12-18T10:31:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/21 "2019-12-18T19:44:37Z")
> [@Mallard](#): > > Either that or people will be working until they die which will make it more difficult for younger people to find jobs. This is part of the real problem, and so am I. I have no required retirement age at my job, I can keep working as long as I want. And it is a mostly easy job. In two years I will be double-dipping, having reached my full retirement age, collecting my salary and social security at the same time. I only plan to do that for a couple of years but many people may decide that they cannot quit working in their old age. There is the meme of “Boomer, get out of my way!” from young people who are not moving up as rapidly as they had hoped. And they sit in lower jobs that are being replaced with automation and changes in economy, and they rightfully resent people like me. At some point it becomes a good idea to buy the older generation out. Make it attractive to no longer work. But the economy does not work that way. Every old person who does retire and get out of the way opens up his $42 per hour job that will be replaced by an eager younger person who gets paid $18. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/22 "2019-12-18T20:42:21Z")
A lot of the jobs that Boomers are doing will not be replaced when they retire. There is one other person besides me in my department. He is going to retire in the next five years. It is very likely he will be replaced by a part-time wage employee. The rest of the slack will fall on me. No one has told me this is going to happen, but I have been watching it happen in other departments. A lot of retiring Boomers are going to be turning to their Millennial kids for help. And it will be sad because a lot of Millennials are struggling right now. The struggle is real when the “good” job you are shooting for is a part-time wage position with no benefits that must be supplemented with a side hustle. The struggle is really real when you are expected to share your apartment and/income with your parents because they didn’t save enough for retirement. Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/23 "2019-12-18T20:47:53Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > The video also talks about the problem of outliving your money when so many people live well into their 80’s and beyond. Where will the money come from? I was going to bring this up - many retirement plans basically assume you’re dead by 85. What if you’re not? Sure would suck to have to go back to work at that age. ---
**Author:** ![ZipperJJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zipperjj/32/211_2.png) [@ZipperJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZipperJJ)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/24 "2019-12-18T20:54:42Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Did you make SS contributions? I didn’t for a long time since it wasn’t a requirement but I spent the last 10 years working a regular job to get SS credit and put away as much as I could in a 401K with my employer contributing. I’m 63 now and retired so it can be done. At 40 I hope you start doing that, even late in the game it’s worth trying to put something away, and you’re not that late in the game. Along with what my wife put away also we’ll do ok with our SS making things a little nicer. I wasn’t in the mood to go nuts on saving before, and I did will investing in my house and property too, but I do think I should have started to put something away when I was younger, and more when I reached your age. Yeah I’ve been paying in to SS since I was 16. And I do have a home that will be paid off by the time I’m 55, god willing. Didn’t start the 401k until I was 30 and that was a crock of shit, so I put it in to a traditional IRA a couple years ago so now it’s an ever slightly more valuable crock of shit. Now I just need to sit and watch over my basement to make sure it stays dry so I can someday rent it out for fun and profit. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/25 "2019-12-18T21:22:35Z")
One thing mentioned in the video was people retiring but staying in expensive places like New York City. I dont get why they dont downsize and move someplace cheaper. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/26 "2019-12-18T21:39:06Z")
I’m only 32 and I’ve already been making spreadsheets and graphs trying to figure out how much SS and 401k I can get when I retire 30 years from now. I plan to live abroad in a cheap nation but continue drawing SS benefits as a US citizen. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/27 "2019-12-18T21:41:27Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I’m only 32 and I’ve already been making spreadsheets and graphs trying to figure out how much SS and 401k I can get when I retire 30 years from now. I plan to live abroad in a cheap nation but continue drawing SS benefits as a US citizen. This is my plan too. 7 years and 11 months to go! ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/28 "2019-12-18T22:43:22Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > I’m worried that the homeless encampments we’re seeing in certain cities are only going to expand as the elderly try to make the most out of savings and SS. > > But there is an upside to this. I think a critical mass of white elderly folks living on the streets is what it will take to move politicians to do something to make housing more affordable. Yeah, plus a bunch of white baby boomers and Gen X who can’t afford health care in retirement may lead to some medicare expansions. Maybe lowering the age to 55, capping out of pocket expenses, covering long term care, etc. I forsee a lot of elderly people living together or people moving in with children in the coming decades. Also a lot of people moving to third world nations for lower cost of living and (in the US at least) cheaper healthcare. ---
**Author:** ![jaycat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jaycat/32/3015_2.png) [@jaycat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jaycat)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/29 "2019-12-18T23:03:15Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I’m only 32 and I’ve already been making spreadsheets and graphs trying to figure out how much SS and 401k I can get when I retire 30 years from now. I plan to live abroad in a cheap nation but continue drawing SS benefits as a US citizen. I paid into SS steadily from age 24 to 49 and I now get a monthly check for under $1,000. Just sayin’ ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/30 "2019-12-18T23:09:03Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#): > > Certainly a possibility. Financial advice for retirement planning seems to often focus on replacing some percentage of your income so as to sustain your current lifestyle; rarely do they talk about potentially needing to live in an assisted-living facility for several years. [The national average for this is about $48,000 per year,](https://www.seniorliving.org/assisted-living/costs/) and an "average’ assisted-living facility ain’t all that nice. [The average assisted-living stay is 28 months,](https://www.mylifesite.net/blog/post/so-ill-probably-need-long-term-care-but-for-how-long/) but of course it could be substantially longer. > > To be fair, if you’re in AL then you’re probably no longer a homeowner or globetrotter, so those expenses go away - but $48K per year is still a stretch (or outright impossible) for many current and future retirees. > > Like you, my wife and I have no kids and good jobs, and have been saving aggressively for retirement. As a federal employee I am anticipating a pension someday, but we won’t be screwed if it gets reduced or even eliminated; we will live well after we retire, and we don’t anticipate any problems with paying for an extended period in assisted living if the need arises. The average retired person now spends about $500-600/month on medical costs not covered by medicare, excluding long term care. That $500-600/month goes to Medicare B premiums, Medicare D premiums, Medigap premiums, copays, deductibles, care not covered by the medicare system (dental, vision, hearing aids, etc). By 2030 supposedly it’ll be $800/month going to these things. And again that excludes long term care which now is about $4000/month for assisted living and $10,000 a month for a nursing home. I have no idea how bad it’ll be when my generation start retiring in the 2040s. When I do the math on my retirement, I don’t need a ton of money to pay my non-medical expenses. If I own my own home (and especially if I have solar power and an electric car, which will eliminate mortgage payments, energy payments and fuel payments) I can cover most of my non-medical expenses for around ~1200 a month. But for all I know, I’ll have to spend an additional $1500/month on medical care expenses when I retire. I may just move to Mexico. ---
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/31 "2019-12-18T23:46:39Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > One thing mentioned in the video was people retiring but staying in expensive places like New York City. I dont get why they dont downsize and move someplace cheaper. I read the transcript rather than watching the video - are you talking about this part- > [@](#): > > No. No way I could have saved enough for retirement. > > I mean, I have enough to retire, let’s say, if I want to go to Wyoming or something like that. > > I saved enough for at least the next 10 years. Who knows with inflation what will happen, but I feel the > next 10 years, I’m OK. Now about why people don’t leave downsize and leave expensive places like NYC- well, of course, some do. But the ones who don’t leave stay for a variety of reasons, including a desire to stay near their family. One thing I don’t think people who ask this question always realize is that cities (and probably especially NYC) are really good places to get old. People in my family tend to live to be old- like 90 or so. And they tend not to end up in nursing homes - the three I know of who did were pushing 90 when they became unable to live on their own. Living in NYC allows you to be independent without driving to a much greater degree than the less expensive areas I’ve looked at - there’s public transportation and cabs of course , but there’s also a paratransit door-to-door service for people with disabilities that preclude using the bus or train. The fee is the same as the bus or train. Taking a bus or paratransit may not be the most convenient way to travel - but it beats being stranded until someone can give you a ride , or driving when you really can’t do so safely ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2019, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/32 "2019-12-18T23:52:46Z")
> [@jaycat](#): > > I paid into SS steadily from age 24 to 49 and I now get a monthly check for under $1,000. Just sayin’ Right, I certainly won’t be rolling in riches. But if I pay into SS from age 23-60, and also build up my 401k and some savings, then I can go live in Taiwan (I should be able to get dual US-Taiwan citizenship in a few years) and spent my last decade or few there. Who knows what the world will look like then, but at least the healthcare should be 10x cheaper, and old people need lots of healthcare. And the cost of living is about 1/3 to 1/2 America’s. I think that’s what a lot of Americans do these days by retiring in Costa Rica. ---
**Author:** ![teela\_brown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/d9b06d/32.png) [@teela\_brown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/teela_brown)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/33 "2019-12-19T00:02:44Z")
Yes, I’d like to live in the countryside when I retire, but I have to take into account the nearness of doctors, hospitals, and visiting nurses. Unfortunately, they’re pretty sparse in the remote, cheaper areas that I like best. ---
**Author:** ![Dag\_Otto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/439d5e/32.png) [@Dag\_Otto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dag_Otto)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/34 "2019-12-19T00:19:22Z")
> [@slash2k](#): > > There is a whole science behind figuring out what rates are actuarially sound, but all the methods require making some assumptions or informed guesses, including what interest rates will be like in 15 years, how the stock market will perform over the next several decades, and how many of the plan participants will exceed average life expectancy over the lifetime of the plan. Even relatively modest miscalculations in any of these can have a pretty substantial impact in how much money is available. Isn’t it odd that when the actuaries are working with with their employer’s best interest in mind, say in the case of an insurance company, they can do a pretty damn good job. But they don’t seem to do a good job when it it the employee’s pension at stake. Well, it would be odd if they used actuaries to manage pensions. I suspect that that are never used. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/35 "2019-12-19T01:23:22Z")
> [@Dag\_Otto](#): > > Isn’t it odd that when the actuaries are working with with their employer’s best interest in mind, say in the case of an insurance company, they can do a pretty damn good job. But they don’t seem to do a good job when it it the employee’s pension at stake. > > Well, it would be odd if they used actuaries to manage pensions. I suspect that that are never used. The problems lie in that actuaries cannot predict the future. They can only extrapolate from current trends. Additionally, when it comes to things like pricing insurance, there’s also the market to consider; the actuaries may be able to make good suggestions about how likely things are to happen, but other companies will be offering policies as well, and they have to consider how to compete with them. For funding pensions, the process is so arcane that employees have no expectation of being able to understand exactly what the benefit is that is being planned for them and how it is expected to be funded, so they have little ability to change jobs to one that offers a better combination of current and future benefits. There definitely are actuaries that specialize in pensions, and different ones that specialize in casualty. > **[AMERICAN SOCIETY OF PENSION PROFESSIONALS & ACTUARIES](https://www.asppa.org)** > > Part of the American Retirement Association > **[Casualty Actuarial Society](https://www.casact.org)** > > CAS members are sought after globally for their insights and ability to apply analytics to solve insurance and risk management problems. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/36 "2019-12-19T01:41:48Z")
> [@teela\_brown](#): > > Yes, I’d like to live in the countryside when I retire, but I have to take into account the nearness of doctors, hospitals, and visiting nurses. Unfortunately, they’re pretty sparse in the remote, cheaper areas that I like best. Yep, that’s what my parents did. They retired to the cheap country but now are 20 minutes from the nearest ambulance service and then from there another 45 to the hospital so they are an hour from help if they had a heart attack also known as dead. They are 10 minutes from the closest gas station with any kind of food and 20 minutes from the closest grocery store. My dad has chosen to not drive at night already and my mom just backed into a car the was parked behind her. I would be shocked if either of them can drive in a decade and then they will have to be moved again. Rural life works best when you’re younger or have large families in the area once you’re old and alone its really difficult. ---
**Author:** ![aruvqan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aruvqan/32/2891_2.png) [@aruvqan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aruvqan)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/37 "2019-12-19T02:19:20Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > One thing mentioned in the video was people retiring but staying in expensive places like New York City. I dont get why they dont downsize and move someplace cheaper. That is what we are doing, we just found a buyer for our place in Connecticut, we will be out of here by the end of Feb. We are then flipping my parent’s house which is also now mine outright [though mrAru pointed out that since I own it outright, he could work a McJob and we could afford to live there if we popped solar panels on the roof to cover the electric bill [heating, hot water and cooking etc] ] When we sell off the contents and the property, we will be heading out to the retirement property - he is hoping to work another 10 years for the SS boost, and to let us put more money into decking out our retirement home and getting ‘stuff’ as well as some light investing. Luckily, career military retirement has given us the ability to have medical through TriCare which when added to his civvy insurance has minimized the medical costs of the cancer and other ongoing issues I have … so we probably will not be going bankrupt from medical costs. Knock wood … ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/38 "2019-12-19T02:22:14Z")
> [@Oredigger77](#): > > Yep, that’s what my parents did. They retired to the cheap country but now are 20 minutes from the nearest ambulance service and then from there another 45 to the hospital so they are an hour from help if they had a heart attack also known as dead. They are 10 minutes from the closest gas station with any kind of food and 20 minutes from the closest grocery store. My dad has chosen to not drive at night already and my mom just backed into a car the was parked behind her. I would be shocked if either of them can drive in a decade and then they will have to be moved again. > > Rural life works best when you’re younger or have large families in the area once you’re old and alone its really difficult. You don’t have to live rural to live cheaply. In the midwest and the south medium sized cities and large cities (other than Chicago) tend to be fairly affordable. They have health care options. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/39 "2019-12-19T03:43:31Z")
I’m worried that Boomers will continue to make Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z pay up for their poor choices, both financial and those that have contributed to many being in [worse health than their parents at the same age](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/baby-boomers-in-worse-health-than-their-parents-at-the-same-life-stage-study-says/2013/02/11/8712172a-70b2-11e2-8b8d-e0b59a1b8e2a_story.html). When they talk about fixing Social security by raising the retirement age to reflect how long people now live they don’t actually mean raising it for Boomers who will be the ones who suck it dry… ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024/40 "2019-12-19T03:44:54Z")
When they discuss reducing medicare or medicaid they usually say ‘for people under 50’ so that their voter base doesn’t turn on them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-coming-retirement-crisis-are-you-worried/845024.md?page=3)