# A crazy, mad science idea : proving if the death penalty is effective **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 1, 2017, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482 "2017-04-01T05:27:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/21 "2017-04-01T19:29:14Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > From an experimental standpoint, the notion of being able to control variables so that a clear correlation between the implementation of capital punishment and the efficacy of it in terms of deterrence is pretty much impossible. > So no, I don’t think it is practical to show or falsify correlation (much less causation) between crime rates and capital punishment by the simple method outlined by the o.p. to any degree that would be regarded as statistically significant even at the 50% confidence level. The general evidence about crime rates and imprisonment, while perhaps not directly applicable to punishment resulting in the termination of life of the offender, would seem to indicate that punishment has little effect on violent crime rates despite continued harshening of the consequences, and there is really no reason to expect this to be different with capital crimes. Ok, If you have a population (the state in question), and you take an action for 5 years, don’t take the action for 5 years, and repeat, all the other variables mostly cancel out. Most of the laws and people of the state are going to be the same from one 5 year period to another, and you repeat the trial which will let you then cancel out any ongoing trends that happened over the 20 years this experiment took. You haven’t addressed this idea, but instead have focused on the fact that my proposed mechanism of manipulating the system - toggling the law back and forth - cannot be expected to lead to much change anyways because DAs and judges can change their appetite for death sentences and historically only a small subgroup of people ever face execution for murder anyway. Fair enough, I accept your analysis. I was sort of implicitly assuming a kind of dictatorial manipulation, where in 1 5 year period, every inmate who is convicted of capital murder just gets the death penalty automatically, and in the next period, it’s life. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/22 "2017-04-01T19:42:06Z")
Within a ten year period (your five years on and five years off) the socioeconomic distribution of a state can change, external impactors such as drug and alcohol abuse may increase or decline, political appointments within prosecutors’ offices certainly will change resulting in differing mandates, and in any case, the impact of any punishments will take that amount of time or more to percolate through the criminal subculture sufficient to have any real impact, even if there were a good reason that it would make a difference, which there isn’t. The only way I could see that such an experiment would work is to have a control populations that is held specifically with no capital punishment, and then one or more populations where capital punishment is consistently employed for a duration sufficient to make any trend stand out against the other factors listed above. Even then it would always be possible to attribute changes in recidivism or crime rates to other factors but you would at least have an argument for whether those factors do or do not dominate based upon what you’ve seen in your control case (assuming similar political and socioeconomic fluctuations). The experiment you’ve outlined essentially guarantees no controlled baseline and would only be valid if you could provide that the impact of change would be rapid and consistent, and independent of those other factors. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/23 "2017-04-01T19:47:05Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > Within a ten year period (your five years on and five years off) the socioeconomic distribution of a state can change, external impactors such as drug and alcohol abuse may increase or decline, I was assuming these specific trends are linear and can be canceled out when you analyze the data for 5 year period #2. So if the 20 year trend is more wealth in the state, that means the second period you execute people, whatever effect wealth has shows up in the data. Ditto drug/alcohol, etc. In addition I was thinking that the transitions are going to provide a clear signal. That is, if you look at the data blindly, you would expect to see a 5 year period of extra murders, and a 5 year period of less murders, if this hypothesis is correct. The magnitude of difference is then what you need in order to rationally decide whether executing people is worth the money it costs. I am aware that these kinds of assumptions put noise and uncertainty into the data - it’s nothing like a clean lab experiment - but _if_ capital punishment works enough to even be worth considering, you _would_ see it in the data. If the signal is so weak the noise overrides it, you have your answer anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Marlonius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/838e76/32.png) [@Marlonius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marlonius)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/24 "2017-04-01T20:09:18Z")
> [@SamuelA](#): > > Stranger, Marlonius : rather than rehash tired pro/anti death penalty arguments, how about evaluating my experimental design? I mean, wouldn’t it be nice to shine the bright light of truth and actually find out, one way or the other, what effect the death penalty has? > > If it’s the same state, and 5 year periods of time, then you’re controlling for almost every other variable by doing : death penalty, no death penalty, death penalty, no death penalty. If people commit less homicides during the no death penalty periods, you have evidence that it has a deterrent effect. Once you know _how much_ the difference is - is it 10%? 50%? 200%? - you can reasonably work out the cost to society of each murder versus the (cost to execute / deterrent effect) and _rationally_ make your choice based on data and evidence, not kneejerk opinions. > > Surely you both agree that knowing is better than not. The problem with “naturally” occurring experiments like that one brief death penalty ban in the past is that it only happened once, and the demographics of America changed, leaded gasoline was banned, abortions were made legal, and so on, and for whatever reason, there has been a large and steady drop in crime up to the present day. Fair enough. I was definitely distracted by the up thread assertion that it costs more to execute than to keep someone incarcerated for life. No, I did not google anything on the cost - 2 reasons - one, I’m not the one making the assertion and I believed that the culture of this board was that the person doing so should also provide a cite and two, I’m from a country without a death penalty and therefore it’s very academic to me as you suggest. I’ve seen some legal information presented here from presumably the USA’s legal system that shows that the current model has costs associated with carrying out the death sentence, but nothing more than that. Some real numbers would be very interesting. My opinions are far from kneejerk though, thank you very much. I’m capable of explaining further, but you have already chided me for not sticking to your original question, which I’ll sound off on now: As Stranger on a Train suggests, there are so many other variables that an experiment would be impossible. I assume, though, that you wanted discuss more than experimental models and actually speculate on what would happen. Let us therefore pretend though that one [experiment] could be done and make the following assumptions. 1. There is a dictator for life that has the authority to change the law every 5 years. 2. The economy, jobless rates, divorce rates and all other social factors that might affect the decision to commit a crime are all at a steady state. It’s 2017 over and over again. 3. The legal system is infallible, consistently applied, and no innocent people are wrongly convicted. In other words, it’s an absolute vacuum, with the only difference in the society between the two states is the one law. Impossible, but what the heck. In this situation, I believe that the vast majority of crimes would be the same. It’s been well gone over here already. There is ample evidence that harsher penalties do not affect the commission of violent crimes. Now a small wildcard: does the society that is the subject of the experiment know that every 5 years the law will change? That too could affect decisions. Personally, if I were out for revenge in a first degree murder type situation, I think I could wait 5 years to make my move and mitigate my risk a little. ---
**Author:** ![ticker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/d07c76/32.png) [@ticker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ticker)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/25 "2017-04-01T20:20:19Z")
Rather than suspend the death penalty for a period of time, surely it would be better to suspend it for half the population and retain it for the other half simultaneously. As long as the criteria for who goes it which group was effectively random, e.g. based on odd/even birthdays, this would exclude any bias. ---
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/26 "2017-04-01T20:26:30Z")
> [@ticker](#): > > Rather than suspend the death penalty for a period of time, surely it would be better to suspend it for half the population and retain it for the other half simultaneously. As long as the criteria for who goes it which group was effectively random, e.g. based on odd/even birthdays, this would exclude any bias. Ok, but this experiment requires you be aware that you are subject to the death penalty or not. It is to find out if it actually serves a role as a deterrent. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/27 "2017-04-01T20:27:52Z")
Instead of trying to continue to explain why this is not a statically viable way of discerning the effectiveness or lack thereof of capital punishment (setting aside the fundamental problems of practically implementing it) I’m just going to recommend that advocates read Herbert Weisberg’s [_Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty_](https://www.amazon.com/Willful-Ignorance-Uncertainty-Herbert-Weisberg/dp/0470890444) to understand why it would not be possible to definitively tease out credible evidence of efficacy using this method. The book is a very readable treatise on the use and often misapplication of probability and statistical analysis written for the informed but non-mathematically inclined layperson, and will clearly inform the reader of the multitude of ways this proposal will not work. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/28 "2017-04-01T20:43:14Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > Instead of trying to continue to explain why this is not a statically viable way of discerning the effectiveness or lack thereof of capital punishment to understand why it would not be possible to definitively tease out credible evidence of efficacy using this method. I’m going to need a more specific quote, because this method is a valid way to remove noise in signal processing where there is noise. It absolutely works. I just used it last month. I suspect that you misread the book, because this is fairly trivial mathematics. In fact, a few months before this, I used this method - stimulating a system with a step function at a varying frequency - to determine the response of a system for PID tuning. It also worked, extremely well. I don’t see how a complex system with many variables is magically any different. People are still agents that obey consistent rules from a population statistics level. ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/29 "2017-04-01T20:46:57Z")
> [@SamuelA](#): > > Let me give a stock market example. Suppose you notice that the price of bananas and the price of big macs are correlated. As big macs go up in price, so do bananas. > > To show causation, you might see if there is a predictable phase lag between a change in big mac price (say 3 months) and a change in banana price. If _every_ time the big mac changed in price, the banana changed in price 3 months later, and _no_ changes in banana prices happened when the big mac price was constant, you have fairly solid evidence of causation. The more times this has happened in your data, the stronger the probability that big mac prices _predict_ banana prices to change is. (and some underlying mechanism of causation is involved). Your example shows the fallacy of “Correlation does not equal causation” The usual example is “The stork brings the babies” because statistics show that in areas with more storks, there are more babies. However, the causation is that there are more storks in rural areas, which traditionally still have more children. As for death penalty, there have already been several links in this thread. There’s no need to start a very badly designed experiment when there is real-world data of many countries and states going from death penalty to no death penalty, and the conclusion is always the same: it does not work as deterrent. There are also many studies on harsh punishment vs. rehabilitation, and it shows overhwelmingly that rehabiliation works much better than the hellholes current US prisons are. Also the historical example cited of pickpockets during the execution of pickpockets, fits with what experts find out from prisonders today: they either don’t think they will be caught because they don’t think 5 min. ahead at all (robbing the convenience store around your corner); they think they are so clever that they will never be caught (and if they are clever enough, they do get away, but it’s hard to get figures for that); and those who know they might be caught but are so desperate they don’t care. The only thing the death penalty does is add incentive: If I’m going to be hanged for a lamb, I might as well be hanged for a sheep. Or: if there’s the death penalty both on murder and rape, killing a rape victim gives a better chance for the criminal of not being caught than letting the victim live, who might identify him. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/30 "2017-04-01T21:02:46Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > Manson was never convicted of murder, nor was there evidence that he directly committed any murders or other capital crimes. He was convicted of conspiracy to commit murder in 1971, over a year before California suspended executions due to the decision in _People v. Anderson_ in April 1972. Conspiracy is not a crime for which the capital penalty can apply, and it would be almost trivial for a competent judge to demonstrate that Manson, who clearly suffers from severe mental illness, is not competent sufficient to justify a capital conviction. I don’t think that is correct, on either count. See the [Charles Manson Biography](http://www.biography.com/people/charles-manson-9397912): > [@](#): > > On January 25, 1971, Manson was convicted of first-degree murder for directing the deaths of the Tate/LaBianca victims. He was sentenced to death, but this was automatically commuted to life in prison after California’s Supreme Court invalidated all death sentences prior to 1972. So Manson was convicted of murder and got a life sentence, and the judge did not find it trivially easy to find he was not competent. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/31 "2017-04-01T21:23:12Z")
We’ve had this discussion before and nobody has shown that a dead murder has killed again. So no matter what the recidivism rate is I don’t see it ever reaching zero. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/32 "2017-04-01T21:34:16Z")
> [@Marlonius](#): > > I’m truly interested in the economic argument. > > I probably sound trollish here, and I apologize if that is the case - I’m not trying to be. Economics above all else is my basis of support for the death penalty in principle, and if I were to have it demonstrated to me that it is truly cheaper to incarcerate these people for life, I would have to revise my opinion. There are lots of cites out there that demonstrate the death penalty is more expensive than life imprisonment, starting practically from arrest. Security to keep the accused, a much higher cost for death penalty trials because of the cost of the defence and prosecution to meet death penalty standards, the automatic appeals, the lengthy period spent on death row, which is more expensive than regular life imprisonment. Just start googling. Here’s a few links to start with. The Death Penalty Centre, admittedly opposed to the death penalty, but with links to a series of studies, broken down by state. All of them reach the same conclusion. [Death Penalty Information Centre: Costs of the Death Penalty](http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/costs-death-penalty) Or this article from Forbes: [Considering The Death Penalty: Your Tax Dollars At Work](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2014/05/01/considering-the-death-penalty-your-tax-dollars-at-work/#6a29f58e664b) ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/33 "2017-04-01T21:34:33Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > We’ve had this discussion before and nobody has shown that a dead murder has killed again. So no matter what the recidivism rate is I don’t see it ever reaching zero. Well in most modern democracies, the idea of a Just state is part of what makes it a full democracy, not a pseudo- or light one. And part of a Just state is that it’s not acceptable to kill / put in prison 50 innocents to catch one guilty person. Any justice system will be faulty. There will be false negatives and false positives: guilty people who are let go, and innocent people who are sentenced. Each society decides where they try to move that line: let more innocent people go, even if a guilty one slips through? Or put as many guilty behind bars as possible, even if many more innocents get caught, too? I’ve also never heard of a proven innocent person who was executed being raised from the dead in the US system, despite what some Texas judges flippantly say. Even in the Middle Ages, scholars quickly realized that depending on God to work miracles instead of administering good justice themselves was a bit presumptios of the Almighty, and a not good system. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/34 "2017-04-01T21:38:05Z")
We had a lengthy debate about the costs of the death penalty a few months ago in this thread: [Dylann Roof found guilty - rot in hell](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=813872), starting on p. 2. I made this post at [post 96 of that thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19912235&postcount=96): > [@Dylann Roof found guilty - rot in hell](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dylann-roof-found-guilty-rot-in-hell/774814/96): > > And, can you guarantee that in the approximately 15 years Roof will spend on death row, he won’t kill anyone? > > From the wiki article on [Death Row](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_row) > > > [@](#): > > > > In the United States, prisoners may wait many years before execution can be carried out due to the complex and time-consuming appeals procedures mandated in the jurisdiction. The time between sentencing and execution has increased relatively steadily between 1977 and 2010, including a 22% jump between 1989 and 1990 and a similar jump between 2008 and 2009. In 2010, a death row inmate waited an average of 178 months (roughly 15 years) between sentencing and execution.[1] Nearly a quarter of inmates on death row in the U.S. die of natural causes while awaiting execution.[2] > > So it’s a death sentence, but for a quarter of the people sentenced to death, it’s life in prison without parole. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/35 "2017-04-01T21:40:45Z")
And at post 109: > [@Dylann Roof found guilty - rot in hell](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dylann-roof-found-guilty-rot-in-hell/774814/109): > > The justice system, like every other government service, is funded from tax dollars. Just like with health care, education, highways, the military, it’s always a fair question to ask if the public is getting value for their taxes. No aspect of public service should be immune from scrutiny. > > And yes, justice has an extremely important value, but I don’t think that makes it completely immune from public scrutiny: are the taxpayers getting good value for their money? > > For instance, are the taxpayers of **New Jersey** getting a good value for the tax dollars they have spent on the death penalty? It was reinstated in New Jersey in 1983. As of 2005, the taxpayers of the state and various counties had paid $253 million to prosecute and house individuals convicted and sentenced to death, over and above what those prosecutions would have cost if the prosecution had sought life in prison. **During that 20 year period, New Jersey did not execute a single prisoner**. So that was $253 million spent that did not achieve anything. [MONEY FOR NOTHING? The Financial Cost of New Jersey’s Death Penalty](http://www.njadp.org/forms/cost/MoneyforNothingNovember18.html) > > Similarly in **New York** : the Legislature re-instated the death penalty in 1995. In 2004, the highest state court overturned the law. It has not been re-instated. During that nine year period, the state spent $170 million to prosecute the death penalty cases, over and above the normal prosecution costs. Not a single prisoner was executed before the law was held unconstitutional. Was that value for money? [Costs of the Death Penalty: Death Penalty Information Centre: New York](http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/costs-death-penalty). > > Even when a state actually does carry out death sentences, the cost is high. Comparing the total cost of the death penalty system in **Washington** against the number of actual executions (5), it is arguable that each execution costs $24 million per execution. [Costs of the Death Penalty: Death Penalty Information Centre: Washington](http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/costs-death-penalty). > > Then there’s **Pennsylvania** , which has spent between $800 million and $1 billion since re-instatement in 1978. That works out to $278 million per execution. [Costs of the Death Penalty: Death Penalty Information Centre: Pennsylvania](http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/costs-death-penalty). ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/36 "2017-04-01T21:42:30Z")
As for the time Charles Manson has been in jail on life imprisonment, how about the time these fellows have spent on death row: > [@Dylann Roof found guilty - rot in hell](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dylann-roof-found-guilty-rot-in-hell/774814/124): > > Which is comparable to the amount of time some condemned prisoners have spent on death row: > > • the longest serving prisoner on death row in the US, Gary Alford, spent almost 40 years on death row between his conviction in 1974 and his death from natural causes in 2013 at age 66; > > • Viva Leroy Nash was 83 when he died of natural causes in 2010, the oldest prisoner on death row in the US, having been sentenced to death in 1983, 27 years earlier; > > • Brandon Jones was likely the prisoner who served the longest time between sentence and actual execution, namely 36 years on death row from sentence in 1979 and execution in 2016, at age 73. > > Source: [Death Penalty Information Centre: Time on Death Row](http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/time-death-row) 2 decades, 3 decades, 4 decades on death row - how is the death penalty cheaper compared to keeping Charlie locked up for life? ---
**Author:** ![Marlonius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/838e76/32.png) [@Marlonius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marlonius)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/37 "2017-04-01T22:19:18Z")
Good stuff Northern Piper, thank you. It does sound like it costs more in the U.S.A. alright, which seems ridiculous, but there we are. The bullet to Andrei Chikatilo’s head in 1994, 2 years after his conviction doubtless saved the USSR’s taxpayers a considerable sum though - for it to be cost effective, one must actually execute the condemned. 40 years on death row? Holy smokes. That sounds like an exception though and it is - I just googled the average time on death row (USA) and got 15 years. Reason for getting off death row - conviction overturned (58%) and execution (24%). It seems the others die of natural causes. Back to the original topic, I quite like ticker’s idea - half the population subject to each punishment with each group knowing which. I see that working perfectly, wish I’d thought of it. You don’t even need a dictator for life or any of the assumptions I came up with. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/38 "2017-04-01T22:26:17Z")
> [@constanze](#): > > Well in most modern democracies, the idea of a Just state is part of what makes it a full democracy, not a pseudo- or light one. And part of a Just state is that it’s not acceptable to kill / put in prison 50 innocents to catch one guilty person. There’s nothing particularly just about incarcerating murderers. > [@constanze](#): > > Any justice system will be faulty. There will be false negatives and false positives. This is a valid point. It indicates the need for a higher level of proof required. There are cases where the evidence meets statistical certainty of guilt. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/39 "2017-04-01T23:07:08Z")
> [@Marlonius](#): > > The bullet to Andrei Chikatilo’s head in 1994, 2 years after his conviction doubtless saved the USSR’s taxpayers a considerable sum though - for it to be cost effective, one must actually execute the condemned. 40 years on death row? Holy smokes. That sounds like an exception though and it is - I just googled the average time on death row (USA) and got 15 years. Yes, the 40 years is an outlier; but an **average** of 15 years on death row - that is expensive, especially since death row prison wings cost more to maintain than regular prisons. So you’re not getting much of a cost savings. > [@Marlonius](#): > > Reason for getting off death row - conviction overturned (58%) and execution (24%). It seems the others die of natural causes. But if your goal as a society with the death penalty is to have prompt executions of the truly guilty, that means your system has a 24% success rate in achieving that goal. Over half have convictions overturned and the rest die before the state can get around to killing them. Is a 24% success rate (or, to put it the other way, a 76% failure rate) worth all the extra money? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482/40 "2017-04-01T23:09:30Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > So Manson was convicted of murder and got a life sentence, and the judge did not find it trivially easy to find he was not competent. Sorry, my error: Manson got a death sentence, not a life sentence; it was later commuted to life after the ruling by the California Supreme Court. (Sorry about that; juggling too many ideas in my head today.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-crazy-mad-science-idea-proving-if-the-death-penalty-is-effective/783482.md?page=3)