# A false rape allegation **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [May 24, 2018, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756 "2018-05-24T21:21:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/21 "2018-05-25T17:04:57Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > In 20 years of policing including 5 years in SVU I’ve seen a number of false allegations. It’s usually from someone who is embarrassed by something and they are trying to deflect. I have no idea what the motivation is here. I have no idea what the percentage of false accusations are. I do know it will be difficult to tell how many there are because most of the ones I’ve dealt with were obviously problematic from the start and the story fell apart before an investigation really started. No way of tracking those kinds of incidents. I guess I’m not understanding something here. How is it that there’s no way of tracking it when you’ve pretty much just described tracking it. Someone comes in and claims they were raped. You start a file. Further investigation reveals that the claim is false so you close the file and maybe charge the person making the claim. At the end of the reporting period you count those files so have a number to compare to the total number of rape claims. No? ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/22 "2018-05-25T17:54:01Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Both your cites include rape under “sexual assault” or “sexual violence”. So I am not sure how much “baseless” means “sexually assaulted but not raped”. I would have expected “baseless” to mean “not proven” or “not enough evidence to convict beyond a reasonable doubt” or the accuser withdrew the accusation because she didn’t want to go thru trial/reconciled with the rapist/just wanted to put it behind her/whatever. > > I am not saying these are bad reasons, or good reasons, or that they prove anything. But it’s different from “truthful”. > > Regards, > Shodan You are correct. It appears that I was also conflating. I apologize. The overall message stays the same, however. -Most rapes stay unreported. -Estimates about the number of “false” reports of rapes ranges from 2-8%, and this has held steady for several years. -One reason for the range of answers is thought to be conflation of the types of reports that are included in the category “unfounded”. Other reasons are study design, and differences in LE agency data collection and reporting. To be honest, when I try to find more details on the legal definition of “baseless” what I find sounds a lot like “unsubstantiated” - not enough facts to support the accusation. We need a lawyer to weigh in on the difference between the two. It sounds like the difference between “false” and the other two is that the accuser in false is known to have lied to make the accusation. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/23 "2018-05-25T18:24:26Z")
> [@Sunny\_Daze](#): > > -Most rapes stay unreported. It’s not clear to me what point people are making when they bring up this fact in connection with the “false accusation” issue. If you’re contemplating the likelihood that a given accusation is true vs false, then the number of unreported rapes has no bearing whatsoever. To the extent that you’re going to use the overall likelihood of false accusations to imply something about a given accusation, the only statistic that counts in that particular context is the percentage of accusations which are true vs false. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/24 "2018-05-25T18:43:52Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > It’s not clear to me what point people are making when they bring up this fact in connection with the “false accusation” issue. > > If you’re contemplating the likelihood that a given accusation is true vs false, then the number of unreported rapes has no bearing whatsoever. To the extent that you’re going to use the overall likelihood of false accusations to imply something about a given accusation, the only statistic that counts in that particular context is the percentage of accusations which are true vs false. It’s a counter-point to the implied argument that women are liars who harass or ruin men by making up rape claims. The reality is that women get raped far, far, far more often then they lie about it. I have noticed that people like to come forward with these false claims when they find them and brandish them, as proof that women do too lie about rapes. Yes, they do, but that doesn’t mean that by extension all women are doing it. If you don’t see that sub-text, then you haven’t been paying attention to the last several thousand years of human interaction. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/25 "2018-05-25T19:13:57Z")
OK. I don’t see that sub-text. In fact I don’t recall ever seeing anyone claim that “all women” are lying about rapes, and I wonder if this notion too might be a “sub-text” that you’ve read into people’s words. Either way, you need to be more clear that you’re addressing a sub-text that no one has said. Otherwise people might be confused and think what you’re saying has some bearing on the actual discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/26 "2018-05-25T20:11:14Z")
Take a look at the OP. What was the discussion again? He posted a story about a false accusation, and indicated that women stated that false accusations rarely occurred. Then he said, essentially, “well I found one”. I provided stats about false rape accusations in response. If you need me to also provide quotes from red pill discussion boards, and even mainstream sources about lying women and rape, I would be glad to do so. It’s hardly a subtext that only I have ever heard of. I also explicitly stated that I was providing a counter-point to Loach’s data (which was helpful, and continues to be so - on the ground experience is a valuable data point). For the record, the only place I used the data on un-reported rapes to calculate anything was in post 8, and I showed my work to do so. The other statistics are entirely on reported assaults only and entirely on point, according to your criteria. Please save your ire for arguments that actually miss the point. If my statistics on “false” accusations have no bearing on the discussion, then the OP needs to re-state his debate. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/27 "2018-05-25T20:26:12Z")
I agree of course that the discussion is about whether false accusations of rape are common. And I agree that stats about false accusations are relevant. What I objected to was your assertion about instances of rape which do not result in accusations, which you persisted in bringing in even though it has no relevance. Your response in your prior post was to say there’s a sub-text which says that “all women are doing it”. I disagree that this is the sub-text here (or anywhere else, most likely), but in any event it’s not more than a sub-text at most. Your “work” in post #8 has no validity in context. You seem to be calculating false accusations as a percentage of actual rapes (with and without accusations). These are two distinct categories. As previous, if you want to bring stats to bear on the likelihood that a given accusation is true vs false, then what’s relevant is only the percentage of accusations which are true; you can’t drag in non-accusations. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/28 "2018-05-25T20:27:57Z")
I do think it’s valid to mention that false accusations are tiny percentage of all rapes, and you do not. We will disagree on that. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/29 "2018-05-25T23:16:16Z")
> [@raventhief](#): > > Since we are now talking about specific cases, the flip side has Marie, who was charged with making a false allegation that an unknown man had broken I’m and raped her knife point. She was the very definition of an unreliable witness, and ended up taking a plea deal to the false accusation charge. > > [Then when the rapist was caught, the police found a photo of her and her license as one of his trophies](https://www.propublica.org/article/false-rape-accusations-an-unbelievable-story). > > She was a “false allegation” statistic until she wasn’t. That was awful. So many people with good intentions doing the wrong thing. Worst of all, the other attacks came after Marie. ---
**Author:** ![markn\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@markn\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markn_1)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2018, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/30 "2018-05-26T00:05:43Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > It’s not clear to me what point people are making when they bring up this fact in connection with the “false accusation” issue. > > If you’re contemplating the likelihood that a given accusation is true vs false, then the number of unreported rapes has no bearing whatsoever. To the extent that you’re going to use the overall likelihood of false accusations to imply something about a given accusation, the only statistic that counts in that particular context is the percentage of accusations which are true vs false. No, that’s not true. The rate of reporting is relevant in a statistical sense. This is very similar to the “false positive” issue in medical tests, where your actual chance of having a disease after a positive test result is dependent not only on the accuracy of the test, but also the prevalence of the disease in the general population. For example, suppose 1% of rapes are reported. Then in 1000 rapes, 10 will reported. Say that there are also an additional 10 false reports in that population. Then the chance that a randomly selected report is false is 50%. Now consider another reality where 99% of rapes are reported. Now 990 rapes will reported out of those 1000. If the rate of false reporting remains the same, there will again be 10 false reports. So now the chance that a randomly selected report is false is only a little over 1%. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2018, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/31 "2018-05-26T00:48:16Z")
(bolding mine) > [@markn\_1](#): > > For example, suppose 1% of rapes are reported. Then in 1000 rapes, 10 will reported. Say that there are also an additional 10 false reports in that population. Then the chance that a randomly selected report is false is 50%. > > Now consider another reality where 99% of rapes are reported. Now 990 rapes will reported out of those 1000. **If the rate of false reporting remains the same** , there will again be 10 false reports. So now the chance that a randomly selected report is false is only a little over 1%. It depends on how you measure that rate. The stats so far in this thread, if I read them correctly, are the number of false reports as a percentage of total reports. In your first example, 10 true reports and 10 false reports, so the rate of false reports is 50%. If that rate remains the same, then your second example would have 990 false reports to go along with the 990 true ones. ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2018, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/32 "2018-05-26T04:18:27Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > (bolding mine)It depends on how you measure that rate. The stats so far in this thread, if I read them correctly, are the number of false reports as a percentage of total reports. In your first example, 10 true reports and 10 false reports, so the rate of false reports is 50%. If that rate remains the same, then your second example would have 990 false reports to go along with the 990 true ones. That’s assuming that false accusations is somehow related to the number of true accusations. If you assume that the number of women making a false allegation remains the same, regardless of how many actual rapes are reported, than the ratio shifts. ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2018, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/33 "2018-05-26T04:22:28Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > That was awful. So many people with good intentions doing the wrong thing. Worst of all, the other attacks came after Marie. It truly was. I first saw that case here, I believe. And yes, how many assaults might have been prevented if she had been believed by those who should have believed her. But she was included in the rate of false allegations for the jurisdiction, which is why I brought up her heartbreaking story. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2018, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/34 "2018-05-26T04:34:38Z")
> [@raventhief](#): > > That’s assuming that false accusations is somehow related to the number of true accusations. If you assume that the number of women making a false allegation remains the same, regardless of how many actual rapes are reported, than the ratio shifts. Sure. I wasn’t trying to suggest that the numbers would stay the same relative to each other. Just wanted to make sure we were all interpreting the numbers the same way. If the percent of rapes that are reported goes up, and the absolute number of false accusations stays the same, then the rate of false accusations (as a percentage of rapes that are reported) would go down. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2018, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/35 "2018-05-26T14:01:19Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > (bolding mine)It depends on how you measure that rate. The stats so far in this thread, if I read them correctly, are the number of false reports as a percentage of total reports. In your first example, 10 true reports and 10 false reports, so the rate of false reports is 50%. If that rate remains the same, then your second example would have 990 false reports to go along with the 990 true ones. So what you’re saying is that in the first instance there are 990 unreported false reports? That seems wrong. You could as easily say there are an infinite number number of unreported false reports. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/36 "2018-05-26T15:58:30Z")
> [@Bill\_Door](#): > > So what you’re saying is that in the first instance there are 990 unreported false reports? That seems wrong. You could as easily say there are an infinite number number of unreported false reports. No. I just think that markn+ was sloppy in the way he phrased his hypothetical. > [@markn\_1](#): > > If the rate of false reporting remains the same, there will again be 10 false reports. If the rate of false reporting remains the same, the number of false reports will go up as the number of true reports goes up. If the number of false reports stays the same, then the rate will go down. I’m just trying to get the math right. That’s all. ---
**Author:** ![HelenGawn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a88e4f/32.png) [@HelenGawn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HelenGawn)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2018, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/37 "2018-05-27T02:29:53Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > It’s not clear to me what point people are making when they bring up this fact in connection with the “false accusation” issue. > > If you’re contemplating the likelihood that a given accusation is true vs false, then the number of unreported rapes has no bearing whatsoever. To the extent that you’re going to use the overall likelihood of false accusations to imply something about a given accusation, the only statistic that counts in that particular context is the percentage of accusations which are true vs false. It’s significant when this information is included in the discussion: > [@Xema](#): > > Here’s a link to a recent (2017) paper in the _Journal of Forensic Psychology_ entitled [The Prevalence of False Allegations of Rape in the United States from 2006-2010](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/the-prevalence-of-false-allegations-of-rape-in-the-united-states-from-20062010-2475-319X-1000119.php?aid=86695). > > The paper’s Abstract concludes with: > [@](#): > > _Approximately 5% of the allegations of rape were deemed false or baseless. **That was at least five times higher than for most other offence types.** _ In considering the bolded statement, it’s important to also compare the instances of other types of crimes that go unreported. [Here’s one paper addressing that](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/vnrp0610.pdf) (PDF), but it’s of limited value since sexual assault is included with all violent crimes. And when a general “a woman can easily ruin an innocent man’s life” outcry begins ( **Jophiel** alluded to the phenomenon above), it’s also important to include unreported assaults in the conversation to put that risk into perspective. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2018, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/38 "2018-05-27T13:31:18Z")
I don’t think it is possible to determine the percentages, but at least some of the unreported rapes/sexual assaults would wind up in the ‘false/unfounded/baseless/can’t be proven in court’ categories as well, if they were reported. Again, that doesn’t necessarily mean the women are lying. It also doesn’t necessarily mean that we can or should take the estimates of unreported rapes at face value either. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2018, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/39 "2018-05-29T13:10:37Z")
> [@markn\_1](#): > > No, that’s not true. The rate of reporting is relevant in a statistical sense. This is very similar to the “false positive” issue in medical tests, where your actual chance of having a disease after a positive test result is dependent not only on the accuracy of the test, but also the prevalence of the disease in the general population. > > For example, suppose 1% of rapes are reported. Then in 1000 rapes, 10 will reported. Say that there are also an additional 10 false reports in that population. Then the chance that a randomly selected report is false is 50%. > > Now consider another reality where 99% of rapes are reported. Now 990 rapes will reported out of those 1000. If the rate of false reporting remains the same, there will again be 10 false reports. So now the chance that a randomly selected report is false is only a little over 1%. This is all completely incorrect. You’re discussing a situation where the percentage is being calculated based on a known numerator (the 10 false reports) while the denominator is being extrapolated based on a known number of rapes and a known reporting percentage. Beyond the fact that that’s not at all the case here - the number of rape reports is the better established number and is independently known, and the number of rapes and reporting percentage are less established and are not the basis for the number of reports - but the true/false percentage estimates were established based on studying actual reports, not by comparing two separate numbers as in your example. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2018, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756/40 "2018-05-29T13:16:11Z")
> [@HelenGawn](#): > > It’s significant when this information is included in the discussion: > > In considering the bolded statement, it’s important to also compare the instances of other types of crimes that go unreported. [Here’s one paper addressing that](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/vnrp0610.pdf) (PDF), but it’s of limited value since sexual assault is included with all violent crimes. > > And when a general “a woman can easily ruin an innocent man’s life” outcry begins ( **Jophiel** alluded to the phenomenon above), it’s also important to include unreported assaults in the conversation to put that risk into perspective. It depends on the “perspective” that you’re trying to add. If you’ve established that the true rate is 5% (for example) then the base likelihood of a given report being false (before you get to factors that apply to the individual case) will be 5% regardless of the number of unreported cases. That doesn’t change. If your argument about “perspective” really means “_hey, we shouldn’t be concerned about a relatively small number of guys being falsely accused because that might somehow drown out the bigger concern about all these women being raped_”, then the true number of women being raped is relevant to that argument, FWIW. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-false-rape-allegation/814756.md?page=3)