# A forecast of the 2024 US presidential election -- are the assumptions and results reasonable?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-forecast-of-the-2024-us-presidential-election-are-the-assumptions-and-results-reasonable/997960>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [February 22, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-forecast-of-the-2024-us-presidential-election-are-the-assumptions-and-results-reasonable/997960 "2024-02-22T20:13:37Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 63

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**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\
**Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-forecast-of-the-2024-us-presidential-election-are-the-assumptions-and-results-reasonable/997960/63 "2024-04-17T15:16:58Z")

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In revisiting the OP from time to time, something I wonder about is that – being that Trump is coming from behind regarding his 2020 vote percentages – where is his increase in support _sufficient to overcome Biden_ supposed to be coming from?

One common answer in the media over the past two months or so is from traditionally Democratic-voting groups such as African-American and Latin-American voters. @Love_Rhombus addressed this directly through **[a recent post in another P&E thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1293)**.

Yes, the link therein is **[an MSNBC opinion piece](https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/trump-black-voters-republicans-pew-report-rcna147645)**. But it’s a professional, well-cited opinion piece – no mere hack job. And IMHO the points made are more intuitively sensible than the media narrative it’s countering:

> A new report from the Pew Research Center pokes a hole in the oft-repeated claim that a historic racial realignment is occurring within American politics, with [nonwhite voters](https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/tim-scott-americas-starting-five-rcna146639) learning to love the GOP and [Donald Trump](https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/trump-politicizing-murder-crime-rcna146652).
> 
> In recent years — [days, even](https://www.wsj.com/articles/black-and-hispanic-voters-could-elect-trump-minorities-election-fcabeeb3) — there’s been a seemingly endless deluge of news stories hyping up this purported realignment as fact. Trump and his allies [have been touting](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-black-people-discriminated-legal-system-rcna140305)[similar](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-black-people-discriminated-legal-system-rcna140305)[claims](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-black-people-discriminated-legal-system-rcna140305) as well (which seems like all the more reason to question them).
> 
> But you needn’t just take my word for it. Pew’s analysis of registered voters — [based on hundreds of thousands of interviews](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship-by-race-ethnicity-and-education/) conducted from 1994 through last summer — showed that while Democrats may have lost _some_ support among nonwhite voters, any seismic shift in party identification is largely a figment of the media’s imagination.

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