# A hole-in-one. Luck? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 24, 2008, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120 "2008-08-24T18:31:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![mangeorge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d78d45/32.png) [@mangeorge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mangeorge)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/1 "2008-08-24T18:31:01Z")
Been watching the pros again. I think getting close to the hole with a minimum of swings does require great skill, but to actually have the ball drop into the hole in one swing has to be pure luck. The golfer (on the tee shot) doesn’t even aim for the actual hole, right? Has Tiger Woods ever made a hole-in-one? Peace, mangeorge ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/2 "2008-08-24T18:37:55Z")
Well, I’m a horrible golfer. Really bad. I play rarely, so rarely that if I played any less, I’d give away my clubs. I’ve come within an inch of a hole in one, while many strellar golfers have never made one. So yeah, I’d say it’s mostly dumb luck. ---
**Author:** ![eleanorigby](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ee7513/32.png) [@eleanorigby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eleanorigby)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/3 "2008-08-24T18:42:07Z")
I think I must be mad at someone or something because I read your title as “A-hole in one.” like some guy had achieved asshole status in one attempt. I need more sleep or something. 🙂 Re the holes in one-I think it must be luck. My (then) 4 year old son got one the first time he played miniature golf. I doubt a pro, even Tiger Woods, could plan a hole in one. Perhaps they shoot for it, but expect to fail. ---
**Author:** ![Revenant\_Threshold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@Revenant\_Threshold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revenant_Threshold)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/4 "2008-08-24T18:50:15Z")
I think it’s to an extent skill, in that a more skilled golfer will be able to get the ball closer to the hole more often. Getting in the hole is then pretty much luck, I would guess - so it’s more like a skillful golfer means more opportunities for luck to occur. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/5 "2008-08-24T18:59:23Z")
[Quote=Mangeorge] I think getting close to the hole with a minimum of swings does require great skill, but to actually have the ball drop into the hole in one swing has to be pure luck. [/Quote] There’s obviously luck in it. But if you are consistently able to put your shots close to where you aim them, you’re going to enjoy more of that luck than someone with worse accuracy. > [@](#): > > The golfer (on the tee shot) doesn’t even aim for the actual hole, right? In some cases, aiming toward the hole is a low-percentage play - e.g. hole is near the edge of the green, and there’s a slope down toward water - so you aim to stop the ball in an area that gives you a makeable putt. But many holes are tolerably straightforward, and you aim to have the ball stop right at the flag. > [@](#): > > Has Tiger Woods ever made a hole-in-one? Accoring to [this site](http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071203203200AAKxSIv), he has 19 of them. Here’s a [video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyHivjyFS8o&feature=related) of his ninth (1996). ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/6 "2008-08-24T19:10:45Z")
Two things, good golfers play more increasing their opportunities . Then they get closer more often. But the last part is luck. Close instead of in requires a break. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/7 "2008-08-24T19:13:37Z")
Like others have said consistenlty being able to get the ball close certainly raises your odds. But the durn thing actually going is like hitting the lottery grand prize. Having played for 30+ years, most of the times in single diggits I have never had one. My dad who has never had his handicap below 20+ got his first one a couple of years back. Surprise vacation to Maui and the old fart get his first. He was like a six year old at Christmas. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/8 "2008-08-24T19:51:24Z")
It’s not pure luck if Tiger has 19 of them. Obviously he can’t do it on command, but when it’s practical to aim for the hole, a pro golfer is going to aim for the hole, and he’s gonna hit it a lot more often than an amateur. My guess from the limited amount of golf I’ve played is that it’s not very often practical to aim for the hole, even when distance technically permits. If hole-in-ones were possible/practical on every hole you’d see a lot more of them. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/9 "2008-08-24T21:24:32Z")
To use a (flawed) analogy- there are mediocre pitchers (like Don Larsen) who’ve thrown no-hitters. There are also magnificent pitchers (like Tom Seaver) who never threw one. Obviously, being as good as Seaver will give you more opportunities to pitch a no-hitter. But there’s a certain amount of sheer dumb luck involved, too. ---
**Author:** ![mangeorge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d78d45/32.png) [@mangeorge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mangeorge)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/10 "2008-08-24T21:32:38Z")
[QUOTE=Xema] There’s obviously luck in it. But if you are consistently able to put your shots close to where you aim them, you’re going to enjoy more of that luck than someone with worse accuracy. In some cases, aiming toward the hole is a low-percentage play - e.g. hole is near the edge of the green, and there’s a slope down toward water - so you aim to stop the ball in an area that gives you a makeable putt. But many holes are tolerably straightforward, and you aim to have the ball stop right at the flag. Accoring to [this site](http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071203203200AAKxSIv), he has 19 of them. Here’s a [video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyHivjyFS8o&feature=related) of his ninth (1996). [/QUOTE] It’s pretty amazing how many those guys on that site have made, even when you consider how many holes they have played. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/11 "2008-08-24T22:16:00Z")
FWIW, various googling suggests that 33 holes-in-one were scored during PGA tour events last year. ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/12 "2008-08-24T22:34:40Z")
[QUOTE=astorian] To use a (flawed) analogy- there are mediocre pitchers (like Don Larsen) who’ve thrown no-hitters. There are also magnificent pitchers (like Tom Seaver) who never threw one. Obviously, being as good as Seaver will give you more opportunities to pitch a no-hitter. But there’s a certain amount of sheer dumb luck involved, too. [/QUOTE] Seaver did throw one: – he no-hit the Cardinals on [June 16, 1978](http://www.baseball-almanac.com/box-scores/boxscore.php?boxid=197806160CN5) while pitching for Cincinnati. But your point does stand. A no hitter, like a hole in one, involves both skill and luck. The classic lousy pitcher who threw a no hitter wasn’t Larsen (who was good enough to play 14 years in the majors; his career ERA was average for a pitcher in that time), but Bobo Holliman, who won only three major league games including the no-hitter. Some reports I’ve seen of the game was that the other team was hitting him pretty solidly the entire game, but that they were always hitting it straight to a fielder. Hollomon only struck out only three batters, and walked five, and was charged with an error, but was helped by four double plays. ---
**Author:** ![mangeorge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d78d45/32.png) [@mangeorge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mangeorge)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/13 "2008-08-24T22:38:56Z")
No more baseball stats! Once you guys get started… 😛 ---
**Author:** ![mangeorge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d78d45/32.png) [@mangeorge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mangeorge)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/14 "2008-08-24T22:46:01Z")
[QUOTE=Xema] FWIW, various googling suggests that 33 holes-in-one were scored during PGA tour events last year. [/QUOTE] Does anybody have any idea how many holes (rounds x 18, is it?) were played that year? Thirty-three HIOs doesn’t sound like a lot. Or would that be HsIO? (Remember the WMDs/WsMD thing? 😉 ) ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/15 "2008-08-24T22:49:53Z")
[QUOTE=mangeorge] Does anybody have any idea how many holes (rounds x 18, is it?) were played that year? Thirty-three HIOs doesn’t sound like a lot. Or would that be HsIO? (Remember the WMDs/WsMD thing? 😉 ) [/QUOTE] A better number would be the number of the hole-in-oneable holes. I don’t think it’s possible to shoot 1 on a par 5 (though correct me if I’m wrong), or an L-shaped hole. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/16 "2008-08-24T22:51:31Z")
A PGA golfer doesn’t try for a hole in one. I’d say every PGA golfer tries for a birdie on every hole. A MLB pitcher probably does try to not give up a hit with every batter. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/17 "2008-08-24T23:06:35Z")
[QUOTE=dalej42] A PGA golfer doesn’t try for a hole in one. I’d say every PGA golfer tries for a birdie on every hole. A MLB pitcher probably does try to not give up a hit with every batter. [/QUOTE] Yeah, but the hole isn’t swinging away at the golf shot. There is only one set of skills, and luck, in play in golf. Which is why I don’t think the baseball analpgy is a good one. Unfortunately, I’m failing to think of a good one. Maybe targetshooting at thousand yard ranges? ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/18 "2008-08-24T23:09:29Z")
I’m sure no PGA golfer goes to a par 5 and thinks they’re going to hit a hole in one. They want that birdie. 18 under for 4 days will win any tournament. A baseball pitcher doesn’t ever want to give up a hit. So, it is not a good analogy. ---
**Author:** ![mangeorge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d78d45/32.png) [@mangeorge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mangeorge)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/19 "2008-08-24T23:10:53Z")
[QUOTE=Cisco] A better number would be the number of the hole-in-oneable holes. I don’t think it’s possible to shoot 1 on a par 5 (though correct me if I’m wrong), or an L-shaped hole. [/QUOTE] Some “blind” holes have been made, but I suspect you’re basically correct. Do the pros use those golf GPS devices in tournament play? ---
**Author:** ![Bootis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e8c25b/32.png) [@Bootis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootis)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2008, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120/20 "2008-08-24T23:31:12Z")
[QUOTE=mangeorge] Does anybody have any idea how many holes (rounds x 18, is it?) were played that year? Thirty-three HIOs doesn’t sound like a lot. Or would that be HsIO? (Remember the WMDs/WsMD thing? 😉 ) [/QUOTE] A pretty rough estimate, but ballpark figure at least: Approximately 50 PGA events a year, approx. 125 players per event, all play 2 rounds, approx. half play 4 rounds, average of 4 par 3’s per round, ((62.5_50_2)+(62.5_50_4)) \* 4 = 75,000 so, approximately 75,000 par 3 tee shots a year on the PGA tour, 33 holes in one out of 75,000 shots is about 0.044% of the time How does Tiger compare? hes played 223 tournaments, and if he has 19 holes in one, 223_4 (hes only missed a handful of cuts)= 892, 892_4=3568 par 3 tee shots. that is 0.5%, or more than 10 times the overall rate… however rough these estimates may be, there’s no denying skill plays a huge role in hole in one chances. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-hole-in-one-luck/461120.md?page=2)