# "A Jewish and Democratic State." What does this mean to Israel? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 19, 2012, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545 "2012-12-19T17:14:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/61 "2012-12-21T13:45:39Z")
> [@Learjeff](#): > > If it’s “the usual cause”, that’s normally attributed to birth control and improved women’s rights, plus wealth (that is, non-poverty). The reason wealth is a big factor is based on the generalization that poor people tend to have lots of children as a sort of retirement plan (in addition to having less access to birth control). This is a fascinating topic and there could be a dozen debate threads on just this issue. I personally am skeptical that women’s rights plays a role, since societies which are still pretty traditional like Japan and Saudi Arabia have seen significant drops in fertility. And places like Sweden and Denmark have higher fertility than the more macho countries like Italy and Greece. I am also skeptical of the retirement hypothesis, since poor people are not known for their ability to plan ahead. My personal hypothesis is that wealth brings stimulation. For your typical resident of a wealthy country, there are a lot of stimulating activities which compete with reproduction for time, attention, and money. Things like dressing nice; watching television; going to movies; eating tasty foods; and so on. In the face of all these pleasant diversions, children seem like a pain in the (^\*(. Interestingly, ultra-religious communities with high fertility tend to be boring places. The women tend to dress plain rather than sexy; members are discouraged from using a lot of television or internet; and they go to religious services a lot. Religious services are really really boring. > [@](#): > > In any case, I was intriqued by the projection that the Arab population would not eventually be a majority, since I’ve always heard the opposite. Yes, I’ve been hearing for the last 30 years that the Arabs would eventually be a majority. I also remember similar predictions about Catholics and Mexicans. > [@](#): > > The projection in the above cite is that Arab population proportion would max out at around 41% in 2014 and decline to about 32% by 2050. However it’s based on projected continuing 3% per-annum decline in Arab growth rates. I suspect that decline will tail off, and I’m curious what assumptions would be required to reach Arab population equality. I’m not sure how to set up the equation, so I’d have to run a routine instead. If anyone knows how to calculate this quickly I’d be very interested. I would be interested too, but here’s a simple graph which says quite a lot in my opinion: [![](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tyART8BVJyg/SjIzAKO3kUI/AAAAAAAAADQ/zVFWDhbwNYU/s1600/aslan+one.png) ](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tyART8BVJyg/SjIzAKO3kUI/AAAAAAAAADQ/zVFWDhbwNYU/s1600/aslan+one.png) For 50 years, the percentage of Jewish births in Israel steadily declined. Then, about 10 years ago, the trend reversed. Since then, the percentage of Jewish births has been steadily increasing. In the long run, it’s the percentage of births which will dictate the demographics of Israel. > [@](#): > > The orthodox population is still a fairly small minority. Even with higher growth rates, I wonder how long it will take before it would dominate population growth in Israel. By “dominate” what do you mean? Already, IIRC the percentage of Jewish children in Israel which is Orthodox or ultra-Orthodox is surprisingly high. The same is true in New York. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/62 "2012-12-21T13:57:54Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > I am also skeptical of the retirement hypothesis, since poor people are not known for their ability to plan ahead. It would be blatantly obvious in large groups of poor people over time that you need kids to take care of you, though. > [@brazil84](#): > > Interestingly, ultra-religious communities with high fertility tend to be boring places. Making babies is a popular past time at Shabbes; you can’t watch a ball game or soap operas. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/63 "2012-12-21T14:38:30Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > I understand what you’re writing here, but I’m not referring to how Germany defines (and has defined) citizenship and nationality laws. I’m referring to the lack of any explicit declaration by the government that it’s a **German and Democratic State**. Why hasn’t Merkel waddled her way to the podium and pronounced that removing Turkish immigrants in Berlin is done to for the safety and protection of the German majority? > > When I hear “Jewish and Democratic State” it comes off as it’s a democratic state as long as their is a Jewish majority. Since Jewish can be both an ethnicity and a religion, the statement is curiously vague on whether it refers to former, the latter, or both. Whatever the case may be, it drives a wedge between the constitutionally protected class (the Jewish people) and the gentiles. It is my opinion that other countries do not explicitly declare themselves “Ethnic X and Government Y State” in order to foster diverse immigrants. The reason you’d call yourself a “Jewish and Democratic State” is if all of you want is Jewish immigrants. It would be analogous to putting “White Europeans Only” in superscript under the “Give me your tired huddled masses” plaque on Liberty Island. > > - Honesty Seems to be more an issue of your perception of the term than of objective reality, though. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/64 "2012-12-21T15:15:18Z")
> [@Honesty](#): > > I understand what you’re writing here, but I’m not referring to how Germany defines (and has defined) citizenship and nationality laws. I’m referring to the lack of any explicit declaration by the government that it’s a **German and Democratic State**. Why hasn’t Merkel waddled her way to the podium and pronounced that removing Turkish immigrants in Berlin is done to for the safety and protection of the German majority? > > When I hear “Jewish and Democratic State” it comes off as it’s a democratic state as long as their is a Jewish majority. Since Jewish can be both an ethnicity and a religion, the statement is curiously vague on whether it refers to former, the latter, or both. Whatever the case may be, it drives a wedge between the constitutionally protected class (the Jewish people) and the gentiles. It is my opinion that other countries do not explicitly declare themselves “Ethnic X and Government Y State” in order to foster diverse immigrants. The reason you’d call yourself a “Jewish and Democratic State” is if all of you want is Jewish immigrants. It would be analogous to putting “White Europeans Only” in superscript under the “Give me your tired huddled masses” plaque on Liberty Island. > [@Malthus](#): > > Seems to be more an issue of your perception of the term than of objective reality, though. I see where **Honesty** is coming from, the idea of a nation defining itself as a certain religion or ethnicity is something I’d associate with illiberal, undemocratic states. Yet, it appears that the harm done to non-Jewish citizens is slim-to-none. The declaration of type of government seems pretty common, though, in a nation’s constitution, analagous to Israel’s Basic Law: > [@Constitution of the Republic of Turkey](#): > > The Turkish state is a Republic. The Republic of Turkey is a democratic, secular and social state governed by the rule of law; bearing in mind the concepts of public peace, national solidarity and justice; respecting human rights; loyal to the nationalism of Atatürk, and based on the fundamental tenets set forth in the Preamble. > [@Constitution of the People's Republic of China](#): > > The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants. The socialist system is the basic system of the People’s Republic of China. Sabotage of the socialist system by any organization or individual is prohibited. > [@Constitution of Norway](#): > > The Kingdom of Norway is a free, independent, indivisible and inalienable Realm. Its form of government is a limited and hereditary monarchy. > [@Constitution of Greece](#): > > 1.The form of government of Greece is that of a parliamentary republic. So, where else is the declaration of government accompanied by a declaration of ethnicity? Egypt, as pointed out by **brazil84.** The Constitution of Malaysia includes this, section 153: > [@Constitution of Malaysia](#): > > 1.It shall be the responsibility of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong [King of Malaysia] to \*\*safeguard the special position of the Malays and natives \*\*of any of the States of Sabah and Sarawak and the legitimate interests of other communities in accordance with the provisions of this Article. Many other nations define **nationality** as a matter of blood, as well. > [@brazil84](#): > > So what? You got to choose the definition of “democracy in practice.” I’m simply applying the definition you chose. Fair enough; the situation you describe would hinge on what “citizenship” meant to Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/65 "2012-12-21T16:00:42Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > I see where **Honesty** is coming from, the idea of a nation defining itself as a certain religion or ethnicity is something I’d associate with illiberal, undemocratic states. Yet, it appears that the harm done to non-Jewish citizens is slim-to-none. > > The declaration of type of government seems pretty common, though, in a nation’s constitution, analagous to Israel’s Basic Law: > . It’s usually done in the _very name of the nation_. As in, “Germany”, “Greece”, “Turkey”, etc. These are the nations of the “Germans”, “Greeks” and “Turks” respectively. It is simply so common as to be unremarkable. No-one questions that “Turkey” is the nation formed by and for the “Turkish” people, who are ethnically “Turks”. If one studies the history of ethno-nationalism, it is very understandable - in the 19th and 20th century, many of these nations were part of expressly multi-ethnic nations or empires (for example what is not “Turkey” was just part of the “Ottoman Empire” that embraced many different nationalities) – or OTOH split up into numerous little principalities (like what is now “Germany” and “Italy”). Ethnic nationalism was a new way of organizing peoples into nations, where the “nation” was identified as being the “homeland” for a “people” - respectively, the Germans, Italians, Turks, etc. In some cases this resulted in division (Turkey) and in others it resulted in addition (Germany, Italy). In all cases, there was a recognition, rightly or wrongly, that an ethnicity should have a “homeland”. Naturally this caused all kinds of trouble and indeed, 20th century history is fueled by the problems created by conflicting ethno-nationalisms. Consider ethno-nationalism in the Balkans and the origins of WW1 - where the heir to a multi-ethnic empire (Austo-Hungary) was assasinated by a Serb nationalist. America is an outlier in this (except for the anomalous position of the “First Nations”). Even Canada is, and remains, officially divided between English and French “peoples”, and French-Canadian people in Quebec certainly feel that Quebec is a “nation”. Indeed, Canada’s parliament passed a motion in 2006 recognizing that the Québécois form a “nation”: [http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2006/11/27/nation-vote.html](http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2006/11/27/nation-vote.html) > [@](#): > > The House of Commons has overwhelmingly passed a motion recognizing Québécois as a nation within Canada. > … > The motion states: “That this House recognize that the Québécois form a nation within a united Canada.” Unless Canada is an “illiberal, undemocratic state”, of course. I’d not like to be the one making that argument! This is why the mere mention of the fact that Israel is a “Jewish” nation (by which is meant something like ‘officially the homeland of the Jewish people’) is hardly inexplicable, and is not outside the mainstream of history. Creating an exceptionalist explaination for it can only be the product of ignorance of history. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/66 "2012-12-21T16:30:48Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > It is simply so common as to be unremarkable. No-one questions that “Turkey” is the nation formed by and for the “Turkish” people, who are ethnically “Turks”. Sure. It’s the extent of the “_for_ the Turks/Germans/Greeks/Jews”, and what that means in practice, that can make one uneasy. I am not saying it automatically leads to legal discrimination against those outside the baseline ethnicity, since clearly it doesn’t. > [@Malthus](#): > > America is an outlier in this (except for the anomalous position of the “First Nations”). And now I can appreciate America all the more, for not adopting an ethno-nationalist creed, due to circumstances of history and geography. > [@Malthus](#): > > America is an outlier in this (except for the anomalous position of the “First Nations”). Even Canada is, and remains, officially divided between English and French “peoples”, and French-Canadian people in Quebec certainly feel that Quebec is a “nation”. Interesting, as France itself ["does not recognise](http://www.queensu.ca/mcp/immigrant/evidence/France.html)minorities, whether they be ethnic, religious, linguistic or other. Under French law, all citizens have equal rights, and the law is not intended to accord specific rights to given ‘groups’ defined by their community of origin, culture, beliefs, language or ethnicity.” This model is even more blind to ethnicity than the American way, which does allow the government to apply laws applicable to a “suspect classification” like race, subject to strict scrutiny. This thread has answered my questions about Israel, and I now conclude that their practice of a national “definition” are not ideal, but are an acceptable, mainstream alternative to the American model. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/67 "2012-12-21T16:44:31Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > Sure. It’s the extent of the “_for_ the Turks/Germans/Greeks/Jews”, and what that means in practice, that can make one uneasy. I am not saying it automatically leads to legal discrimination against those outside the baseline ethnicity, since clearly it doesn’t. > > And now I can appreciate America all the more, for not adopting an ethno-nationalist creed, due to circumstances of history and geography. > > Interesting, as France itself ["does not recognise](http://www.queensu.ca/mcp/immigrant/evidence/France.html)minorities, whether they be ethnic, religious, linguistic or other. Under French law, all citizens have equal rights, and the law is not intended to accord specific rights to given ‘groups’ defined by their community of origin, culture, beliefs, language or ethnicity.” > > This model is even more blind to ethnicity than the American way, which does allow the government to apply laws applicable to a “suspect classification” like race, subject to strict scrutiny. > > This thread has answered my questions about Israel, and I now conclude that their practice of a national “definition” are not ideal, but are an acceptable, mainstream alternative to the American model. The problem is that an official lack of official acceptance or recognition of minorities isn’t incompatible with official discrimination against minorities - as the “default” position tends to be set as that of the “unofficial” (but nonetheless very real) ethnic or religious majority. France is a perfect example of this. The laws of France are, as you point out, very explicit - moreso than America - that ethnicity has no official standing. However, seemingly “ethnically neutral” legislation can have a very clear impact on targeted, disfavoured minority groups - such as Muslims. In France, the obvious example of this is the legislation that bans the wearing of islamic scarves in schools. Note that the law doesn’t actually ban Islamic scarves, but any “visible sign of religious affiliation”. It just so happens that the only such “signs” regularly worn are islamic headscarves. > **[Islamic scarf controversy in France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_scarf_controversy_in_France)** > > In France, there is an ongoing social, political, and legal debate concerning the wearing of the hijab and other forms of Islamic coverings in public. The cultural framework of the controversy can be traced to France's history of colonization in North Africa, but escalated into a significant public debate in 1989 when three girls were suspended from school for refusing to remove their headscarves. That incident, referred to in France as l'affaire du foulard (the scarf affair) or l'affaire d Since... The problem is this: ostensibly ethnicly-neutral laws can have (and indeed be intended to have) differential impact. Usually, such an impact favours the enthnic and religious majority versus the minority. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/68 "2012-12-21T16:52:03Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > In France, the obvious example of this is the legislation that bans the wearing of islamic scarves in schools. Note that the law doesn’t actually ban Islamic scarves, but any “visible sign of religious affiliation”. Would that include kippas and Catholic Priest collars? ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/69 "2012-12-21T17:21:48Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > The problem is that an official lack of official acceptance or recognition of minorities isn’t incompatible with official discrimination against minorities - as the “default” position tends to be set as that of the “unofficial” (but nonetheless very real) ethnic or religious majority. > > France is a perfect example of this. The laws of France are, as you point out, very explicit - moreso than America - that ethnicity has no official standing. However, seemingly “ethnically neutral” legislation can have a very clear impact on targeted, disfavoured minority groups - such as Muslims. Agreed, though it could make such official discrimination more difficult to implement. France has a fair amount of religious and ethnic strife, though. I suppose it’s fair to say that just as enshrining a nation’s ethnic or religious character into law doesn’t axiomatically lead to discrimination against other ethnicities and religious, the lack of such enshrinement or recognition does not axiomatically lead to ethnic and religious peace and civility. Clearly, other factors are at work. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/70 "2012-12-21T17:25:21Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Would that include kippas and Catholic Priest collars? According to the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “The law does not mention any particular symbol, and thus bans all Christian (veil, signs), Muslim (veil, signs), Jewish and other minor religions’ signs.” ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/71 "2012-12-21T18:37:26Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > Agreed, though it could make such official discrimination more difficult to implement. France has a fair amount of religious and ethnic strife, though. I suppose it’s fair to say that just as enshrining a nation’s ethnic or religious character into law doesn’t axiomatically lead to discrimination against other ethnicities and religious, the lack of such enshrinement or recognition does not axiomatically lead to ethnic and religious peace and civility. Clearly, other factors are at work. Yup, well put. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/72 "2012-12-21T18:39:17Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Would that include kippas and Catholic Priest collars? Yup. If they are large, that is. Small stuff - like crosses worn as jewelry - would not count. > [@](#): > > It forbids the wearing of any “ostentatious” religious articles, including the Islamic veil, the Jewish kippa, and large Christian crosses.[23] The law permits discreet signs of faith, such as small crosses, Stars of David, and hands of Fatima. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/73 "2012-12-21T19:22:24Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Would that include kippas and Catholic Priest collars? It does ban Kippas and large crosses, but not small ones. However Jewish and Christian students had been wearing such symbols for decades and no one cared. People only suddenly decided that religious symbols had no place in French schools when Muslim girls started wearing Hijabs to school. The only reason they’re even banning Kippas and large crosses is so they can pretend that their primary reason for this isn’t because of Muslims. Unfortunately, France has a real problem with Islamophobia. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/74 "2012-12-21T20:02:19Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Unfortunately, France has a real problem with Islamophobia. I can understand some folks feeling that way in the United States, but why France? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/75 "2012-12-21T21:23:36Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > I can understand some folks feeling that way in the United States, but why France? Talk to members of France’s Algerian minority. Lots of people in many European countries have had a difficult times adjusting to changing demographics and France has had its share of problems. So yeah, as someone who’s been to both countries I’d rather be a Muslim in the US than in France, though, to be fair it’s probably better to be an African-American or Latin American in France than the US(though perhaps not an African-African). ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/76 "2012-12-21T21:55:43Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > My personal hypothesis is that wealth brings stimulation. For your typical resident of a wealthy country, there are a lot of stimulating activities which compete with reproduction for time, attention, and money. Things like dressing nice; watching television; going to movies; eating tasty foods; and so on. In the face of all these pleasant diversions, children seem like a pain in the (^\*(. I suspect that access to affordable contraception is the primary driver. For the most part, people have babies because they like to have sex. > [@](#): > > Religious services are really really boring. No argument. 😉 > [@](#): > > I would be interested too, but here’s a simple graph which says quite a lot in my opinion: > > [http://4.bp.blogspot.com/\_tyART8BVJyg/SjIzAKO3kUI/AAAAAAAAADQ/zVFWDhbwNYU/s1600/aslan+one.png](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tyART8BVJyg/SjIzAKO3kUI/AAAAAAAAADQ/zVFWDhbwNYU/s1600/aslan+one.png) > > For 50 years, the percentage of Jewish births in Israel steadily declined. Then, about 10 years ago, the trend reversed. Since then, the percentage of Jewish births has been steadily increasing. > > In the long run, it’s the percentage of births which will dictate the demographics of Israel. Interesting graph, but it’s not clear whether the change is a long-lasting trend. No doubt it’s relative birth rates that matters most. > [@](#): > > By “dominate” what do you mean? Already, IIRC the percentage of Jewish children in Israel which is Orthodox or ultra-Orthodox is surprisingly high. The same is true in New York. I meant “numerically dominate”, meaning, have a majority. The percentage of children that are ultra-orthodox is about 8.7%, according to the paper I posted above. Apparently “orthodox” is hard to measure. Do you have a cite? ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/77 "2012-12-21T22:26:42Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > it’s probably better to be an African-American … in France Names escape me, but there were many expatriate African Americans in France in the 1920s. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/78 "2012-12-21T23:17:42Z")
About time to light candles. Shabbot shalom, everyone. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2012, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545/79 "2012-12-22T18:44:54Z")
> [@Learjeff](#): > > Interesting graph, but it’s not clear whether the change is a long-lasting trend. No doubt it’s relative birth rates that matters most. Well you need to think about what underlies the trend. To my mind, the obvious explanation is that there are religious Jews who have a lot of children and then raise those children to be religious Jews. This pattern seems likely to continue. > [@](#): > > I meant “numerically dominate”, meaning, have a majority. > > The percentage of children that are ultra-orthodox is about 8.7%, according to the paper I posted above. Apparently “orthodox” is hard to measure. Do you have a cite? Here’s one for New York: > **[Jewish Telegraphic Agency - The Global Jewish News Source](https://www.jta.org/)** > > The Global Jewish News Source > [@](#): > > According to the new UJA-Federation of New York survey, “Jewish Community Study of New York: 2011,” Orthodox Jews, because of their high birthrate, now make up nearly one-third of the Jewish community of the five boroughs, Long Island and Westchester and a whopping 64 percent of its children. I was too lazy to look for a cite for Israel, but it seems likely to me that a similar pattern will hold there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-jewish-and-democratic-state-what-does-this-mean-to-israel/644545.md?page=3)