Back to the OP.
If Gore loses he’s going to be in big trouble. He got the nomination this time because he was Vice President. The only D to run against him was Bradley, who wasn’t a real big shot. If Gore loses, then the Democratic primary in 2004 will be wide open, and all the Ds who’ve been waiting for their shot will be coming out of the woodwork. Every governor, every senator will be considered. Sure, if Gore won the nomination he’d have a shot if the economy was in a shambles, but he’ll have a hell of a time winning the nomination. Let’s imagine that Bush is a disaster. Well, even if he is, why would the democrats think that Gore would be the best person to run against Bush? There’s bound to be a senator or governor with less baggage, who’s young and fresh, and who hasn’t been saddled with a major debacle like this election.
On the other hand, if Bush loses, I think he’ll be better poised for 2004. He won the nomination because he sewed up the fundraising way in advance. He’ll go back to being governor of Texas, whereas Gore has no position. The republicans are aching for the white house, I think Bush would start the 2004 nomination race way ahead.
Anyway, the point is that although both might have a good shot if they got their party nomination, I think Gore is much less likely to get that nomination.