# A lonely planet residing inside of one of 450 billion galaxies? Dosen't sound lonely

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lonely-planet-residing-inside-of-one-of-450-billion-galaxies-dosent-sound-lonely/228594>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [February 11, 2004, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lonely-planet-residing-inside-of-one-of-450-billion-galaxies-dosent-sound-lonely/228594 "2004-02-11T03:57:46Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 4

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**Author:** ![lucwarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e19adc/32.png) [@lucwarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lucwarm)\
**Post date:** [February 17, 2004, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lonely-planet-residing-inside-of-one-of-450-billion-galaxies-dosent-sound-lonely/228594/62 "2004-02-17T14:30:49Z")

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It seems to me that there is a sort of congnitive bias at work here. If there are 450 billion chances of something of non-zero probability happening, it’s natural to assume that there’s a pretty good chance the thing will happen. But if you try to do the math, you’ll see the assumption just ain’t so.

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**Author:** ![Bytegeist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9dc877/32.png) [@Bytegeist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bytegeist)\
**Post date:** [February 17, 2004, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lonely-planet-residing-inside-of-one-of-450-billion-galaxies-dosent-sound-lonely/228594/63 "2004-02-17T19:22:55Z")

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Just wanted to pop by and recommend _Captured by Aliens_, by Joel Achenbach, as a funny and intelligent book for this exact subject.

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**Author:** ![UnclePoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/edb3f5/32.png) [@UnclePoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UnclePoo)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2004, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lonely-planet-residing-inside-of-one-of-450-billion-galaxies-dosent-sound-lonely/228594/64 "2004-02-25T03:53:26Z")

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> [@Maxwell Edison](#):
>
> I think with so many galaxies, the real question is is there life, besides our own, right here in the Milky Way.

The "Drake Equation " predicts that there are hundreds of intelligent civilizations residing right here inside our very own Milkey Way.

The  
Drake Equation=http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake\_equation.html

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**Author:** ![eburacum45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eburacum45/32/8690_2.png) [@eburacum45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eburacum45)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2004, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lonely-planet-residing-inside-of-one-of-450-billion-galaxies-dosent-sound-lonely/228594/65 "2004-02-25T07:12:37Z")

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No, it doesn’t necessarily;

it all depends what numbers you put in…evry time I run the figures I only get one or two civilisations-

well, we know there is at least one-

which is us.  
(being generous)

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**Author:** ![lucwarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e19adc/32.png) [@lucwarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lucwarm)\
**Post date:** [February 29, 2004, 9:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lonely-planet-residing-inside-of-one-of-450-billion-galaxies-dosent-sound-lonely/228594/66 "2004-02-29T09:25:35Z")

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> [@UnclePoo](#):
>
> The "Drake Equation " predicts that there are hundreds of intelligent civilizations residing right here inside our very own Milkey Way.\*\*

Not really - as **eburacum45** points out, it all depends on what numbers you put in.

It’s worth emphasizing that uncertainty in any Drake Equation factor is transmitted to the result. So even if we know all the factors except one with utter certainty, we must be uncertain about the result. Just MHO of course.

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