# A lot of people thought ACA repeal was a no brainer done deal when Trump won. What happened? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 4, 2017, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489 "2017-07-04T06:21:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/41 "2017-07-05T16:45:49Z")
How about asking a specific poster or two who actually did say those things? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/42 "2017-07-05T16:54:12Z")
It could still easily be repealed, all it takes is for 50 Republican Senators to vote for the bill, and it’s repealed. It could literally happen next week, with enough arm-twisting and log-rolling. It was NEVER a slam dunk that it would be repealed, as even Republicans are shy about voting for massively unpopular bills that screw over their constituents. But even if it survives, we’ve got another year and a half of Republican control of the House, Senate, and Presidency. So even without repeal next week, there’s always next month or next year. Of course, repeal isn’t going to get more popular next year, so the plan was always “Pass the tax cuts for the rich right away, and maybe by election day in 2018 the morons back home will have forgotten that they don’t have health care”. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/43 "2017-07-05T16:56:55Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > All of this speaks to the practical difficulty of repealing the ACA, but it doesn’t really address why the dire predictions were so wrong. It’s assumed that the politicians will lie or exaggerate or attack the easy targets. But the posters in the linked thread in the OP aren’t those politicians. > > SDMB on Nov 9: the ACA is doomed. > SDMB Today: ACA probably won’t be repealed? > > A less interesting question is what changed with the politicians involved that were calling for repeal. A more interesting question is what changed with the posters on the SDMB that predicted certain repeal and in what way their outlook has changed. For me, I basically took the Republicans at their word. The House voted for repeal, what, 60 times? So, a vote for a Republican House and Senate was basically a vote to repeal Obamacare. Rubio managed to subtly sabotage it by stopping some sort of payment from the Feds to the insurers. Republican groups and governors sued multiple times attacking different parts of the law. Republicans really, really wanted it gone. People who voted for Republicans and then were shocked that they would lose health insurance are a mystery to me – what did they expect to happen? So, when it came time to repeal, with the Republicans having control of the House, Senate, and White House, I assumed it would go. I even started a thread that said, if they do vote to repeal, I don’t think the Democrats should go to extraordinary lengths to stop it. Sure, they should vote against it, but I didn’t think they should, for example, filibuster or shut down the government. At some point, you give the people what they voted for. So, I’m surprised it didn’t go away. I guess that when it would actually affect their own healthcare, and not just those others, some Republican voters woke up and threw a wrench into the works. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/44 "2017-07-05T16:58:31Z")
They also have to consider Trump’s promises [lies]. [This](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-vows-insurance-for-everybody-in-obamacare-replacement-plan/2017/01/15/5f2b1e18-db5d-11e6-ad42-f3375f271c9c_story.html?utm_term=.383b7525ff41)is from January 11th: > [@](#): > > “It’s very much formulated down to the final strokes. We haven’t put it in quite yet but we’re going to be doing it soon,” Trump said. He noted that he is waiting for his nominee for secretary of health and human services, Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), to be confirmed. That decision rests with the Senate Finance Committee, which hasn’t scheduled a hearing. > > … > “We’re going to have insurance for everybody,” Trump said. “There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can’t pay for it, you don’t get it. That’s not going to happen with us.” People covered under the law “can expect to have great health care. It will be in a much simplified form. Much less expensive and much better.” ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/45 "2017-07-05T17:11:55Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > It could still easily be repealed, all it takes is for 50 Republican Senators to vote for the bill, and it’s repealed. It could be even easier than that. Trump could simply decide to refuse to enforce the provisions necessary to sustain the law. The system would collapse very quickly. If Trump truly wanted the ACA gone, it would be gone. That’s why I don’t really believe they think it’s worth the cost of simply getting rid of it. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/46 "2017-07-05T17:31:41Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The Democrats’ biggest mistake with the ACA was to enact a two-pronged strategy: > > 1. Making insurance mandatory to purchase/acquire > > AND > > 1. Steeply raising insurance premiums. > > If there had been 1# and not 2#, then folks would have been OK with it. If there had been 2# but not 1#, then folks could opt out of the high premiums. But by making a product mandatory to purchase, \*and \*drastically hiking the product’s price, what do you expect, other than a massive backlash? #2 there? Did you mean to say that steeply raising insurance premiums was a democratic stratedge involved in the ACA? I do not think that is right. To begin with, the ACA does not call for higher premiums. Now, some did premiums go up under the ACA, sure, just as they did for every single year before it was ever even proposed, much less went into effect. My premiums actually went down. I had bought insurance on the individual market for years prior, having worked for smaller employers that did not offer insurance. It was pretty expensive, and did not cover anything to do with my spine or joints, due to a “pre-existing condition”. I did not qualify for the subsidy, but being able to buy it on the marketplace like that, rather than having to call a bunch of companies and wait for them to get back with you with a quote still saved me a decent amount on my premiums. The ACA attempted to address rising insurance premiums, and it arguable as to how well it did in that respect, but you suggest that higher premiums are a deliberate part of the ACA, and that is just not correct. The insurance companies determine the price of insurance, do they carry any of the blame, in your opinion? > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > How about asking a specific poster or two who actually did say those things? I did predict that the republicans would repeal the ACA in that thread. I predicted that based on what republicans said that they would do if they achieved power. I predicted that based on the past years and how many attempts to repeal the ACA. I did not predict that it would be easy, nor that it would be quick, but yeah, I did predict that republicans would do what they’ve been saying that they would do for the last 8 years. This prediction is not really falsified, either, as the house has passed a bill, and the senate is trying to pass a bill that will do exactly as predicted. Now, as far as what happened, you can look to he republicans for that. Some of them got cold feet when they realized that their constituents actually liked not dying or going bankrupt due to lack of health coverage. They refuse to go to town halls or meet with their constituency for fears of getting another earful about not losing their health coverage. Does the OP of this thread think that ACA will remain the way it is, or that it’ll go through any changes, or that it’ll be scrapped? If it stays the way it is, but under republican control, then no changes can be made to address the many flaws that the ACA has, and that will make it harder to work with. If they do make changes, one of the main changes that they will be wanting to do would be to remove the individual mandate, which would completely destroy the exchanges. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/47 "2017-07-05T18:13:29Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > If it stays the way it is, but under republican control, then no changes can be made to address the many flaws that the ACA has, and that will make it harder to work with. If they do make changes, one of the main changes that they will be wanting to do would be to remove the individual mandate, which would completely destroy the exchanges. And then premiums would get jacked even more, effectively denying coverage to more who couldn’t afford it. It’s such a gigantic balancing act that it’s next to impossible for even people who are able to divorce themselves from ideology enough to deal with the actual problems to effectively do so. And Republicans aren’t that way anyway. Ultimately, you have to be able to trash and rewrite the entire system, but with the goal of actually creating a viable replacement instead of giving another tax cut to the wealthy out of the pockets of everybody else. And you’d have to violate the sacred ‘free market’ ideology of the right. That’s their real objection. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/48 "2017-07-05T18:22:00Z")
I think their basic problem is that Obamacare IS the Republican alternative. It was created by one of their in-house flack “foundations” in response to the threat (to their corporate sponsors) of Hillarycare, and proven workable in its trial run as Romneycare. All we’ve seen since the barking dogs caught the car amounts to variations on a theme, that nevertheless take it away from tens of millions of Registered Voters. Obama pushed it anyway in the naive expectation that they’d never oppose _their own damn plan_. The Democratic plan, which it might have served Obama better to have pushed from the get-go, would have been a version of the universal public option, essentially expanding Medicare eligibility to every citizen or legal resident. True single payer would be even more efficient, but politically beyond reach as a single step. The smart move for the GOP today just might be to enact it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/49 "2017-07-05T18:30:09Z")
[According to Ed Kilgore](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/the-return-of-repeal-and-delay-as-gop-health-care-strategy.html), Trump himself killed repeal-and-delay. It was the preferred Congressional GOP approach at the beginning of the year, then in a phone conversation on January 9, Trump told Rand Paul he agreed with Paul that repeal and replacement should be a single bill, and Paul let the outcome of that conversation be widely known. At that point, the Republicans in Congress were still deferring to Trump since he was President-elect; it hadn’t sunk in with them what a total clownstick they’d put in the White House. It probably would have happened if Trump hadn’t said anything. Chances are they’d have hustled it through Congress and had it ready to sign right after Trump gave his inaugural address, and before widespread opposition to Trump became visible. We dodged a bullet there. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/50 "2017-07-05T18:36:07Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > It could be even easier than that. Trump could simply decide to refuse to enforce the provisions necessary to sustain the law. The system would collapse very quickly. If Trump truly wanted the ACA gone, it would be gone. That’s why I don’t really believe they think it’s worth the cost of simply getting rid of it. No, only the smaller part of the ACA would be gone. ACA = Medicaid Expansion + the Exchanges. More people are insured through the Medicaid expansion than the Exchanges. You can gut the Exchanges through regulatory changes, like non-enforcement of the individual mandate (maybe; the mandate hasn’t been enforced yet, but the Exchanges are basically working OK) or by not funding the CSR subsidies (more effective). But how do you gut the Medicaid expansion through regulatory changes? I don’t see that at all. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/51 "2017-07-05T18:36:15Z")
Unfortunately they’re talking about it again - in some cases, seriously. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/52 "2017-07-05T19:16:35Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > But how do you gut the Medicaid expansion through regulatory changes? I don’t see that at all. You’re right, I was using the ACA as shorthand for the exchanges. Those could be killed by fiat essentially. For the Medicaid expansion, I’d have to contemplate that one a bit more. Perhaps something to do with how reimbursement rates are capped and/or interpreted could cause the death spiral but that would be more difficult. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/53 "2017-07-05T20:45:34Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > A more interesting question is what changed with the posters on the SDMB that predicted certain repeal and in what way their outlook has changed. No, it’s not, IMO. The reason before: Republicans kept trying to repeal it, but couldn’t because of the Democrats. Take away the Democrats, and they’ll repeal it. The reason now: They keep trying to repeal it, but can’t because of disagreements with other Republicans and public outcry (which didn’t exist before). The reason our predictions change is specifically because of the updated information. Discovering why that happened is where there could be something interesting. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/54 "2017-07-05T20:54:12Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > [According to Ed Kilgore](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/the-return-of-repeal-and-delay-as-gop-health-care-strategy.html), Trump himself killed repeal-and-delay. It was the preferred Congressional GOP approach at the beginning of the year, then in a phone conversation on January 9, Trump told Rand Paul he agreed with Paul that repeal and replacement should be a single bill, and Paul let the outcome of that conversation be widely known. > > At that point, the Republicans in Congress were still deferring to Trump since he was President-elect; it hadn’t sunk in with them what a total clownstick they’d put in the White House. There is absolutely no reason to think that. There was widely recognized clownstick-ness before a single healthcare vote. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/55 "2017-07-05T21:25:16Z")
It turns out no-brainers tend to fail when the guy in charge has no brain. That’s what you call… ironic. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/56 "2017-07-05T21:34:50Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > It turns out no-brainers tend to fail when the guy in charge has no brain. > > That’s what you call… ironic. So you’re rather confident that you have a bigger brain than Ryan and McConnell based on … your rarely funny internet commentary compared to theirs? I think it’s probably more useful to discuss politics without the assumption everyone who disagrees with me does so because they’re a bunch of dummies. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/57 "2017-07-05T21:38:34Z")
“Why hasn’t this leopard eaten by face yet?” asked the man on his back, the leopard on top of him, growling and lickings its lips. “You said he would eat my face right away. He could soon, but he hasn’t yet. Why were you were so wrong?” ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/58 "2017-07-05T21:38:58Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > So you’re rather confident that you have a bigger brain than Ryan and McConnell based on … your rarely funny internet commentary compared to theirs? I think it’s probably more useful to discuss politics without the assumption everyone who disagrees with me does so because they’re a bunch of dummies. I’m sure health care was just \*more complicated \*than Ryan and McConnell realized. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/59 "2017-07-05T21:46:03Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I’m sure health care was just \*more complicated \*than Ryan and McConnell realized. I rather doubt either thought it was uncomplicated. This may shock you but I also doubt an awesome government supported healthcare system was ever their goal either. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2017, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489/60 "2017-07-05T21:50:10Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I rather doubt either thought it was uncomplicated. This may shock you but I also doubt an awesome government supported healthcare system was ever their goal either. But they’re willing to throw their support to a complete moron who said this: > [@](#): > > “We’re going to have insurance for everybody,” Trump said. “There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can’t pay for it, you don’t get it. That’s not going to happen with us.” People covered under the law “can expect to have great health care. It will be in a much simplified form. Much less expensive and much better.” Amazing how people are so willing to sacrifice integrity for [whatever it is they think they’re getting]. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-lot-of-people-thought-aca-repeal-was-a-no-brainer-done-deal-when-trump-won-what-happened/790489.md?page=4)