# A massive 6-month volcano disruption of commercial air travel **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [May 25, 2016, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641 "2016-05-25T10:55:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/1 "2016-05-25T10:55:14Z")
In 2010, the Eyjafjallajökull eruption interrupted air travel to and from Europe for 6 days, and it was a major disruption to the world economy. This had me thinking - what if there was a much bigger, much-longer lasting and more severe volcano-eruption disruption, for 6 months rather than 6 days? Air travel couldn’t afford to be disrupted for that long. Would airlines cope by installing some sort of volcanic-ash filter screens on their engines, and then resume flights? ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/2 "2016-05-25T11:15:24Z")
if a really big volcano lets loose, air travel might be the least of our worries. > **[Year Without a Summer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer)** > > The year 1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1 °F). Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest of any on record between the years of 1766 and 2000. This resulted in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere. > Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in April in the Dutch East I... and no, filters would be impractical. the air flow through a turbofan is too great; to trap ash a filter would have to be very fine which would greatly reduce engine performance. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/3 "2016-05-25T13:58:30Z")
I imagine it depends on just where the volcano is. The main reason the Icelandic volcano was such a big deal is that it’s right there next to a whole lot of the transatlantic air routes, and is placed in a particularly bad spot for paralyzing European air travel. If say… it was to continuously spew ash for 6 months, I imagine that there would be a corresponding increase in train and road travel within Europe, and I also figure that cruise lines might start sailing the transatlantic routes again- there would be a lot of money to be made sailing a big cruise ship from say… Southampton to New York, if people couldn’t fly between Europe and the US, and I suspect that would outweigh whatever money is made schlepping tourists between Caribbean islands, or down the Mexican coast. There also might be round-about flights that fly out of southern Europe/N. Africa to the US. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/4 "2016-05-25T14:25:04Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Air travel couldn’t afford to be disrupted for that long. Would airlines cope by installing some sort of volcanic-ash filter screens on their engines, and then resume flights? I saw a special on TV just a few weeks ago about a commercial air liner that flew through an ash cloud. They didn’t know it was a volcano, but they knew _something_ was wrong. They were seeing sparks along the side of the plane. The cabin was filling with some kind of “smoke” (that didn’t quite act like smoke) and what seemed to be the strangest is that they lost their engines, but they later started back up on their own. Also, when they landed, more or less, blind since they’re windows were ruined from the ash. It wasn’t until they landed and got outside to look at it, did they realize [how bad it was](http://image.slidesharecdn.com/2014-volcanicactivity-141215190213-conversion-gate02/95/2014-volcanic-activity-10-638.jpg?cb=1418695071). It was a while later (days? weeks?) before they pieced together what actually happened since the volcano wasn’t on the weather reports. > **[British Airways Flight 009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9)** > > British Airways Flight 009, sometimes referred to by its callsign Speedbird 9 or as the Jakarta incident, was a scheduled British Airways flight from London Heathrow to Auckland, with stops in Bombay, Kuala Lumpur, Perth, and Melbourne. > On 24 June 1982, the route was flown by City of Edinburgh, a Boeing 747-236B registered as G-BDXH. The aircraft flew into a cloud of volcanic ash thrown up by the eruption of Mount Galunggung around 110 miles (180 km) south-east of Jakarta, Indonesia, resultin... If you can catch the documentary on TV, it was really good. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/5 "2016-05-25T15:11:24Z")
Probably if the event lasts weeks, then we will start seeing safety standards modified and relaxed, something which actually happened during the Icelandic event. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/6 "2016-05-25T15:15:11Z")
As above, but even worse if it was a major eruption in Japan. Not only would it isolate the country, but it would cause untold loss of life and property because of proximity to population centers. Plus the fact that a major eruption anywhere in East Asia will trash the busiest air routes on the planet. 9 of the top 10 routes in the world are in East Asia or Australia. The economic impact to the world would be off the charts massive. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/7 "2016-05-25T16:35:28Z")
> [@bump](#): > > I imagine it depends on just where the volcano is. The main reason the Icelandic volcano was such a big deal is that it’s right there next to a whole lot of the transatlantic air routes, and is placed in a particularly bad spot for paralyzing European air travel. > > If say… it was to continuously spew ash for 6 months, I imagine that there would be a corresponding increase in train and road travel within Europe, and I also figure that cruise lines might start sailing the transatlantic routes again- there would be a lot of money to be made sailing a big cruise ship from say… Southampton to New York, if people couldn’t fly between Europe and the US, and I suspect that would outweigh whatever money is made schlepping tourists between Caribbean islands, or down the Mexican coast. > > There also might be round-about flights that fly out of southern Europe/N. Africa to the US. Cruise ships arent engineered to make trans Atlantic voyages. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/8 "2016-05-25T16:41:25Z")
I would think that the Miami - Lisbon route would get a lot more traffic. From Lisbon, Rome or Madrid you can catch rail connections to the rest of Europe. How much ash would it take to put a serious dent into global warming? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/9 "2016-05-25T16:41:33Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > In 2010, the Eyjafjallajökull eruption interrupted air travel to and from Europe for 6 days, and it was a major disruption to the world economy. Cite? > [@](#): > > This had me thinking - what if there was a much bigger, much-longer lasting and more severe volcano-eruption disruption, for 6 months rather than 6 days? Assuming the disruption is restricted to air travel, I think there would be little to modest macro-level disruption after the initial shock. Apart from the airline sector, of course. Business can be conducted by phone or internet; personal meetings might require a significant train journey or cruise - I can see Iceland benefiting here. Tourism would be seriously affected but that would only shift where tourist money was spent, so while there would be local disruptions, on a macro scale there would be no overall effect. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/10 "2016-05-25T16:49:04Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Cruise ships arent engineered to make trans Atlantic voyages. Many of them are. Some of the biggies make regular transatlantic cruises anyway; they sail the Caribbean in the winter and the Mediterranean in the summer (see, e.g., Royal Caribbean’s _Jewel of the Seas_, _Freedom of the Seas_, etc.), and the semi-annual repositioning cruise is a popular choice. The _Disney Magic_ is currently en route from Florida to Dover, England; she’ll spend the summer in Europe before returning from Spain to New York in September. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/11 "2016-05-25T17:02:18Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > I would think that the Miami - Lisbon route would get a lot more traffic. From Lisbon, Rome or Madrid you can catch rail connections to the rest of Europe. > > How much ash would it take to put a serious dent into global warming? As you can from the UK. And most people would rather disembark in southern England than Portugal. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/12 "2016-05-25T17:06:41Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > As you can from the UK. And most people would rather disembark in southern England than Portugal. During the 2010 eruption, both [Heathrow and Gatwick](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/7732018/Volcanic-ash-cloud-Heathrow-and-Gatwick-closed.html) were closed part of the time and had restrictions (e.g., on number of flights) at other times. The volcanic ash didn’t just go straight up in the air; the wind blew the ash cloud around, including over Britain and parts of the continent. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/13 "2016-05-25T18:16:37Z")
[The 1991 Pinatubo Eruptions and Their Effects on Aircraft Operations](https://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/casa/) > [@](#): > > \*\*ABSTRACT > > \*\* The explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 injected enormous clouds of volcanic ash and acid gases into the stratosphere to altitudes in excess of 100,000 feet. The largest ash cloud, from the June 15 eruption, was carried by upper level winds to the west and circled the globe in 22 days. The June 15 cloud spread laterally to cover a broad equatorial band from about 10°S. to 20° N. latitude and contaminated some of the world’s busiest air traffic corridors. Sixteen damaging encounters were reported between jet aircraft and the drifting ash clouds from the June 12 and 15, 1991, eruptions. Three encounters occurred within 200 kilometers from the volcano with ash clouds less than 3 hours old. Twelve encounters occurred over Southeast Asia at distances of 720 to 1,740 kilometers west from the volcano when the ash cloud was between 12 and 24 hours old. Encounters with the Pinatubo ash cloud caused in-flight loss of power to one engine on each of two different aircraft. A total of 10 engines were damaged and replaced, including all four engines on a single jumbo jet. Following the 1991 eruptions, longer term damage to aircraft and engines related to volcanogenic SO2 gas has been documented including crazing of acrylic airplane windows, premature fading of polyurethane paint on jetliners, and accumulation of sulfate deposits in engines. > Ash fall in the Philippines damaged aircraft on the ground and caused seven airports to close. Restoration of airport operations presented unique challenges, which were successfully met by officials at Manila International Airport and at Cubi Point Naval Air Station, Subic Bay. Lessons learned in these clean-up operations have broad applicability worldwide. > Between April 12 and June 9, 1991, Philippine aviation authorities issued at least eight aeronautical information notices about the preeruption restless state of Mount Pinatubo. The large number of aircraft affected by the Pinatubo ash clouds indicates that this information either did not reach appropriate officials or that the pilots, air traffic controllers, and flight dispatchers who received this information were not sufficiently educated about the volcanic ash hazard to know what to do with the information. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/14 "2016-05-25T19:09:42Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > As you can from the UK. And most people would rather disembark in southern England than Portugal. I just picked Southampton-NYC since it’s the route the Cunard liners have taken in recent years. ---
**Author:** ![Springtime\_for\_Spacers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Springtime\_for\_Spacers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Springtime_for_Spacers)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2016, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/15 "2016-05-25T23:59:36Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Cruise ships arent engineered to make trans Atlantic voyages. [SS Uganda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Uganda_(1952)) took educational cruises around the Meditterranean until it was required for a hospital ship for the Falklands War. The refit took only three days. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2016, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-massive-6-month-volcano-disruption-of-commercial-air-travel/755641/16 "2016-05-26T11:27:42Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Air travel couldn’t afford to be disrupted for that long. Would airlines cope by installing some sort of volcanic-ash filter screens on their engines, and then resume flights? Filters for the engines won’t work. That idea was hashed out during the Eyjafjallajökul eruption. Whether air travel could or couldn’t afford the disruption is irrelevant - the disruption would happen.