A new roadmap: What's the best way out of Iraq?

There’s one obvious thing, which if we could all be a little less high minded I’d like to talk about.

Involve the UN & the Iraqi people sure, maybe through in some neighbours too.

Ask yourself what do all these parties want? They want to see some humility on the part of the US.

Just as nothing less than brute force could restore American prestige after the WTC bombing, so nothing less than a sacrifice, some humiliation to the US, will get the needed alliances working.

I can think of only one obvious candidate.

goddammit! Throw, in some…

I hesitate to harp on the Vietnam thing but as it seems that anything I say on the topic is denied, I will quote some statistics:

From the U.S. National Archives and Record Administration:
U.S. Deaths in Vietnam

1961: 16
1962: 52
1963: 118
1964: 206
Statistics regarding Iraq casualties are all over the 'Net, of course. From this site:

U.S Deaths in Iraq from March '03 through 4/16/04: 689
So. Deaths from four years at the beginning of the Vietnam conflict amounted to a total of 392. And, at that time, we had no idea that they would go as high as they did later. In Iraq, 689 deaths in 13 and a half months.

Is Iraq worse than Vietnam? So far, hell, yes.

And, Furt, you missed my point entirely regarding the citizens of other ME nations being interested in Iraq. No, they will not be succesful in moving their respective governments to action…but there is indeed a danger that, as the conflict goes on, a greater and greater number of people will find themselves radicalized in their opinions and motivated to join the Iraqi insurgents. Therefore, the U.S. could find itself fighting not merely the radical elements left in Iraq but, instead, the radical elements from the entire region. And, the longer all this goes on, the more Muslims will become radical. The ‘hydra-headed evil’ and all that.

So how do you stop this?

Your comparison is meaningless. In the years you refer to, there were between 900-20,000 US troops in Iraq. US soldiers couldn’t die in large numbers in '61- '64 because they weren’t there. Which is lesson #1 learned from Vietnam: No slow buildup. US combat troops began arriving in significant numbers in 1965, and once there and operational they started seeing casualties in the hundreds every month.

Lesson #2 from Vietnam is to have a plan. So far we have 2 firm deadlines for changing the political structure in Iraq and lessening our responsibility. If we start reneging on those, I’ll worry. If the draft is reinstituted, I’ll worry.

One more time:“If we assume that from this moment forward, each and every month is ten times worse than our worst month to date, we will reach 58,000 casualties in early 2009. I repeat: do you really think this is remotely plausible? Do you really think the populace would stand for that?”

You get out after giving the Iraqis a decent shot at a real pluralistic government. If that works, Joe Moderate Arab sees the Americans left when they could have stayed, and left things better than they found them. If it doesn’t work, hell, at least we gave it a shot. The Middle East was already a breeding ground for a growing Muslim Fascist movement: the status quo ante in the ME was what produced 9/11.

Running away from Iraq now (which I presume you advocate; you’ve not offered an alternative AFAICT) means that in a year or two things are as bad or even worse than when we came and, everyonke sees once again that the Americans will run away if you can hurt them. How is that going to be percieved from Riyadh to Tora Bora ?

Time will tell

I am not advocating anything in particular; I’m asking. I am asking, as I asked in the OP: Is there a good plan for getting out under good circumstances in the future?

Furt, you seem to be saying that we should try to implement a government and, if it doesn’t work within some reasonable time frame, we should then jump up and leave the Iraqi people to their fate which, judging from the current events, would be a bloody 3-way civil war.

Since this can’t be what you hope to see as a result there, you must be saying that you expect GWB’s plan to work.

Personally, I don’t see GWB’s plan working too well currently–things are happening now which he had no clue about a year ago–and this brings misgivings about the future. My chief concern is that the insurgency will continue to grow rather than be contained and eventually snuffed out, as Bush hopes.

So, again, I will re-state the OP: What is the best possible plan for bringing resolution to the Iraqi conflict; a resolution that includes American troops safely home, a stable and reasonable Iraqi government in place, and not too many American and Iraqi deaths along the way?

Furt, perhaps the administration’s plan could be improved a tiny bit, just here and there?

In reverse order:

:confused: If you think I’ve wholly in support of W’s every move, you are again not reading carefully. I’ve already said I agreed with most of what RTFirefly suggested. Where I didn’t, I said what I suggested. If I were to come up with some more of my own, they’d include

[ul]
[li]A PR offensive. There needs to be VOA-type thing up immediately, promoting, among other things, Iraqi national pride.[/li][li]As best we are able, seal those borders. Announce that any persons crossing illegally will be assumed hostile and shot. In practice, exercise discretion. [/li][li]Kerry and Congressional dems should be regularly invited to briefings at the White House in an effort to cool partisan hostilities.[/li][li]More boots on the ground; except we don’t have 'em to spare.[/li][li]A lot more appreciation to our allies (UK, Oz, etc), both in concrete terms (contracts, trade concessions) and in ceremonial/symbolic stuff. This to me is the easiest, most obvious thing Bush has done wrong. They seem to think that we can just assume the help of people like Italy, Denmark and Poland, and that is inexcusable. If we’re going be pissed at France for opposing us, we have to be at least equally grateful to those who have helped. [/li][li]Sr. Admin officials should visit the region (and our allies) regularly. It will calm people’s fears a bit if Cheney and Rice are dropping into Baghdad every few weeks. plus it might give them some insight to talk to people lower down the chain of command once in awhile. [/li][/ul]

“Jump up?” No. “Slowly disengage?” Yes. Would you prefer we stay for years and years even if it’s not working? That was lesson #3 from Vietnam: win or get out. If Civil War is what they really want, and even the moderates start calling for violence, yes, then we leave. As things stand now, most of the moderate leaders are saying they are willing to build and live in a secular, pluralistic, democratic state. So long as that still seems possible, and there is progress – even slow, painful progress – we stay. When it’s not, we leave.

I think the timeframes we’ve set up are a bit ambitious, but are decent enough benchmarks.

No. There is no “good plan” where nobody dies and everything works. Every option – including never going to Iraq in the first place --involves innocent people dying. Every option pisses someone off. Every option carries a very real risk of failure. Every option is subject to the Law of Unintended Consequences. When dealing with reality, the job is not to find the perfect or even the “good” plan, but to choose the best plan from the options at hand.

“You got any better ideas?” is not a rhetorical question.

I think that this crucial to the WoT in general. The US arguably has some of the best PR groups in the history of the world. We know how to sell the fire out of stuff. We need massive PR blitzkriegs all over the planet.

Master Sun’s advice re an enemy’s provision is that every cartful captured is worth twenty of your own. I think that this advice applies to the WoT re supplies of recruits. Every disaffected young Muslim who’s won over is worth at least twenty attack-Iraq-Bush-backers.
Personally, I think that al Qaeda coulda gotten a lot more mileage out of similar strategy than what they’re going with these days. Of course, a PR campaign isn’t the stuff of apocolyptic/messianic visions though is it?

IMHO, that’s about the only area where it can’t be considered at least comparable to Vietnam. Krugman’s got a column on this, which I’ll come back to in another post.

No prob. Figured the word was still getting out.

Well, it’s a ‘middle’, but the OP wasn’t excluding it so much as saying the terrain hadn’t been mapped, and he was asking whether there were some passable routes through it.

I appreciate that.

I think there’s one important point to make about the directed-violence point: that which constitutes directed violence, from our military’s POV, can constitute indiscriminate violence to the Iraqis. We’re all much more upset when bad things happen to people we can identify with than when they happen to people we can’t. I’m not claiming to be a sainted exception here, not hardly. But we need to be aware that our ‘collateral damage’ is heartrending to them.

I sort of agree and sort of disagree. I think that until we’ve trained Iraqis to handle their own internal policing, the job of preventing or responding to the violence of one sect or faction against another is in our hands.

But this isn’t what I see here. It’s violence by some significant factions against us. And ISTM that what we do about it depends on whether this is indeed a few thugs, or the armed portion of a much more widespread popular movement. If it’s the latter, then our ‘enemy’ is too large for us to defeat by military means, and to attempt to do so will only result in the convergence of ‘our enemy’ with ‘the people we came to liberate’.

I’ve held the position for the past 15 days that we were effectively making war on the people of Iraq. We weren’t making war on the people who killed the four mercenaries in Fallujah; they’d probably blown town before we had the chance to cordon it off. Rather, we were making war on people who took heart from those killings. Reprehensible though it may be, such attitudes are legal, which is why we should have just cordoned off the city. By attacking it, we were effectively saying, “Hating the US is outlawed,” not to mention killing people who, up to that point, didn’t need to be killed. Ditto when we shut down al-Sadr’s newspaper. And when he had his uprising on April 4, the right call was to get out of the way, since we, and not some other faction, were the object of his militia’s fury. Getting out of the way would have minimized loss of life on both sides, and avoided creating the seeming moral necessity of retaliation.

Since even Rumsfeld’s saying how surprised he was by the widespread support for the insurgents, I think that’s unfortunately been vindicated. And we’ve meanwhile created a whole lot of new facts in the ground that won’t quickly be forgotten.

Of course, we could do PR blitzkriegs against ourselves, like we did last week when Sharon came calling. It would have been a good time to at least pretend to stand up for the principle of eventual Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank.

Messianic/apocalyptic visions can be a great PR campaign if the visions start coming true. And our occupation of Iraq is one of those visions.

Link.

Differences, per Krugman:

  • Far fewer casualties. (I agree there’s no way we’re gonna stay around for 10,000 dead, let alone 58,000.)
  • We increased taxes to pay for Vietnam.

Similarities, per Krugman:

  • Ties down a similar proportion of our military strength. (Fewer troops, but smaller military altogether.)
  • Places greater stress on our military. (Vietnam didn’t strain our defensive capabilities in Europe, Korea, etc.; didn’t even hinder a major intervention in the Dominican Republic.)
  • What our leaders told us [and themselves, I’ll add] about the war was false.
  • Gulf of Tonkin/no WMDs
  • “hearts and minds”/“welcomed as liberators”
  • Vietnamization/new Iraqi army
  • “Come to defend/bring democracy”
  • Propping up/installing corrupt regimes. (Thieu, meet Chalabi.)
  • Domino theory: this time, it’s destabilization/terrorism rather than Communism.
  • Dissent portrayed as giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

Krugman forgot:

  • Secret plan to end the war/defeat terrorism.

When the war started many of us were saying the reasons given were insufficient and the post-war would be a mess. Many on the other side just said Bush knew what he was doing it and why he was doing it. Just trust him. Well, events have shown Bush was wrong in the reasons he gave and he was also wrong when he expected things would be easy during the occupation.

The USA was counting on training Iraqis to form a local army and police which would serve American needs but it is not working out. They train for a while and when the time comes to obey orders they quit in large numbers and refuse to fight against other Iraqis. Not only that but it is estimated a lot of them are actually infiltrated resistance fighters.

Bagdhag “Bob” Bremer warns Iraqi army “not ready”

Oh man. This is rich. “Troops from many countries, including the United States”? This man is delusional. Someone better tell him there never were “many countries”. There used to be “a few” countries and quite a few of those are disbanding and running for cover. What a joke.