# A prediction on the outcome of the Libby indictments. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 29, 2005, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395 "2005-10-29T00:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/1 "2005-10-29T00:03:37Z")
Remember–you read it here first. Libby will plead, in the next few weeks/months to some of the charges. He will get sentenced to either no prison time, or certainly a short, white collar stay. We will never know _for sure_ who the unindicted co-conspirators(my words) are. You will of course read about the speculation and the insider info in Time, Newsweek, and blogs-out-your-ass and the major media, but you will never get a major player to admit to anything in this matter. Fitzgerald will have no need to pursue this further once Libby admits. That will be the end. None of this makes me happy. Quite the contrary. But it’s the way life works. If a mod thinks this belongs in IMHO, please move it. I put it here in case it became vitriolic. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/2 "2005-10-29T00:08:16Z")
Damn you, **samclem**! I was just about to add that prediction to the thread I started on Libby last night. 🙂 From what I’ve seen today, Fitzgerald has a pretty solid case. Libby can save himself, and the administration, a LOT of trouble by copping a plea. I’ve seen some speculation that Fitzgerald is hoping Libby will turn on Rove as part of his plea. I think that it highly doubtful. You heard \*\*that \*\*here first! ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/3 "2005-10-29T00:36:41Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Damn you, **samclem**! > I’ve seen some speculation that Fitzgerald is hoping Libby will turn on Rove as part of his plea. I think that it highly doubtful. You heard \*\*that \*\*here first! Not a chance. Scooter will do his time, and be rewarded handsomely by someone when he gets out. ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/4 "2005-10-29T01:07:20Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > Not a chance. Scooter will do his time, and be rewarded handsomely by someone when he gets out. Like conspirators of yore I want to see Scooter hold his hand over a candle flame to show his raw willpower and determination not to talk. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/5 "2005-10-29T01:16:27Z")
> [@astro](#): > > Like conspirators of yore I want to see Scooter hold his hand over a candle flame to show his raw willpower and determination not to talk. Or perhaps cut off the last bit of his little finger. I agree with the OP, both in content and on thread placement. 🙂 Libby will make a deal and do light time. I don’t believe he’ll talk. That would jeopardize the well-paid job at a think tank he’ll get after he’s out of jail. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/6 "2005-10-29T01:18:30Z")
> [@astro](#): > > Like conspirators of yore I want to see Scooter hold his hand over a candle flame to show his raw willpower and determination not to talk. You are, of course, referring to _G. Gordon Libby_, no doubt? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/7 "2005-10-29T01:29:56Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > You are, of course, referring to _G. Gordon Libby_, no doubt? Unspeakable. And from a moderator, no less. Another golden idol tarnished, ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/8 "2005-10-29T01:39:55Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Damn you, **samclem**! I was just about to add that prediction to the thread I started on Libby last night. 🙂 From what I’ve seen today, Fitzgerald has a pretty solid case. Libby can save himself, and the administration, a LOT of trouble by copping a plea. He can save himself a decade or so of prison time, but he would put the Administration in a world of hurt beyond where it already is. Libby’s goose is cooked unless he can hand over Rove or Cheney. If he can give Fitzgerald one of them, he’s probably looking at a year or two in a Club Fed, and a six-figure fine. If not, he well might get a decade or more. He’s looking at charges that total 30 years if served consecutively and in full. And while the judge won’t make Scooter do 20+, he probably won’t go real short, either, if he’s not cooperated with the prosecutor. Libby’s a 55 year old man who’s used to living comfortably. The idea that > [@samclem](#): > > Scooter will do his time, and be rewarded handsomely by someone when he gets out is absurd; you just can’t pay someone in Scooter’s position enough money later on to compensate for that many years in prison at this stage of his life. > [@](#): > > I’ve seen some speculation that Fitzgerald is hoping Libby will turn on Rove as part of his plea. I think that it highly doubtful. You heard \*\*that \*\*here first! I think it’s a better-than-even proposition. Might let [Digby](http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2005_10_23_digbysblog_archive.html#113053259726348543) tell you of Fitgerald, Scott Fawell, and former Illinois Gov. George Ryan. Or go to [Firedoglake](http://firedoglake.blogspot.com/2005/10/patrick-fitzgerald-david-radler-and.html) and let Jane Hamsher tell you the tale of Fitzgerald, David Radler, and Conrad Black of Hollinger International fame. To put it bluntly, Fitz is really good at getting a white-collar criminal to flip on his boss, in situations not all that unlike this one. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/9 "2005-10-29T01:42:23Z")
[aside] Hey, there’s a Google ad that Scooter might want to take advantage of! > [@](#): > > Criminal or drug charges? > Get the best solution. Quickly and within your budget. I’m starting to really love these things. [/aside] ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/10 "2005-10-29T02:12:20Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Libby’s a 55 year old man who’s used to living comfortably. The idea that > is absurd; you just can’t pay someone in Scooter’s position enough money later on to compensate for that many years in prison at this stage of his life. > I think it’s a better-than-even proposition. Might let [Digby](http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2005_10_23_digbysblog_archive.html#113053259726348543) tell you of Fitgerald, Scott Fawell, and former Illinois Gov. George Ryan. Or go to [Firedoglake](http://firedoglake.blogspot.com/2005/10/patrick-fitzgerald-david-radler-and.html) and let Jane Hamsher tell you the tale of Fitzgerald, David Radler, and Conrad Black of Hollinger International fame. To put it bluntly, Fitz is really good at getting a white-collar criminal to flip on his boss, in situations not all that unlike this one. Fawell is evidently not a match to Scooter’s case. Fawell was charged with _racketeering and tax evasion_ in addition to the crimes that LIbby was charged with, which were perjury and obstruction of justice. Quite a big difference, IMHO. And, in the Radler/Black case, you’re talking about something that is on-going, happened just this Fall, and isn’t over yet. Also, the charges in that case are not the same as in the Plame case. Again, I say, Scooter will do little if any time. Ask Bricker or Minty their opinion. It just won’t happen. And it ain’t about politics. It’s just the law. ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/11 "2005-10-29T02:13:41Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > You are, of course, referring to _G. Gordon Libby_, no doubt? There’s no “Lib” in [G. Gordon Liddy](http://www.liddyshow.us/)! You remember that punk! Remember it good! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/12 "2005-10-29T02:17:14Z")
The Google ads at the moment: “Rove: Victim or Villain?”, “President Prediction - Should Bush Be Replaced?”, and “Careers in Intelligence”. Yep, gotta love 'em. If Fitzgerald were through, I’d agree with **samclem**. Since he isn’t, I agree with RT - as it is, this is pressure on Scooter to finger Dick and Karl. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/13 "2005-10-29T02:24:44Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > If Fitzgerald were through, I’d agree with **samclem**. Since he isn’t, I agree with RT - as it is, this is pressure on Scooter to finger Dick and Karl. Oh, but he is. He might love to crank it up a notch, but he can’t without some testimony from Scooter. And that will never happen. Scooter won’t get more than 6 months. Ask a lawyer what the penalty is likely to be for a guy in his position, with his background, given the charges. Are you suggesting that Scooter is less of a man than Judith Miller… 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/14 "2005-10-29T02:30:32Z")
Fitzgerald undoubtedly knows the penalties, too, and has a feel for what it will take to crack a guy who calles himself Scooter. If he still doesn’t think he’s through, he’s isn’t through. Meanwhile, this story is going to continue to fester as long as Dick and Karl remain in the White House. They haven’t been cleared, can’t be cleared, and Bush hasn’t retracted his promise to fire anyone involved, either. If the prosecutorial pressure doesn’t do it, adding the public pressure (via a media now able to see that there are better ratings for pressing it than rolling over for Bush) might. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/15 "2005-10-29T02:38:00Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Meanwhile, this story is going to continue to fester as long as Dick and Karl remain in the White House. They haven’t been cleared, can’t be cleared, and Bush hasn’t retracted his promise to fire anyone involved, either. If the prosecutorial pressure doesn’t do it, adding the public pressure (via a media now able to see that there are better ratings for pressing it than rolling over for Bush) might. Well, if their not indicted, then their not “involved”. And you got the quote wrong. He said anyone involved would be “taken care of”. That could mean a pardon! 🙂 > [@](#): > > [Link](http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2005/07/19/bush_seems_to_shift_on_his_grounds_for_dismissal/?page=1) > > ''If there is a leak out of my administration, I want to know who it is. And if that person has violated the law, the person will be taken care of," Bush said at a campaign stop in Chicago in October 2003. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/16 "2005-10-29T02:48:12Z")
He started weaseling on that when Turd Blossom’s involvement became public. [MediaMatters](http://mediamatters.org/items/200507140002): > [@](#): > > White House press secretary Scott McClellan explicitly stated in a September 29, 2003, press conference that Bush would \*\*fire anyone involved \*\* in outing an undercover CIA operative. McClellan did not hinge dismissal on criminal or intentional action: > … > McCLELLAN: The president has set high standards, the highest of standards for people in his administration. He’s made it very clear to people in his administration that he expects them to adhere to the highest standards of conduct. _If anyone in this administration was involved in it, they would no longer be in this administration._ > > Bush himself stated on September 30, 2003, that he would “take appropriate action” against “anybody in my administration who leaked classified information.” Apparently “that statement is no longer operative” (anyone who doesn’t recognize that one is encouraged to do a quick search themselves). ---
**Author:** ![John\_F](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/43a26b/32.png) [@John\_F](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_F)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/17 "2005-10-29T02:52:45Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > He can save himself a decade or so of prison time, but he would put the Administration in a world of hurt beyond where it already is. > > Libby’s goose is cooked unless he can hand over Rove or Cheney. If he can give Fitzgerald one of them, he’s probably looking at a year or two in a Club Fed, and a six-figure fine. If not, he well might get a decade or more. He’s looking at charges that total 30 years if served consecutively and in full. Man, that seems like an astonishing amount of time all things considered isn’t it? How much time do you normally get if you walk up to some random guy on the street and shoot him to death (in a state with no death penalty)? ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/18 "2005-10-29T03:08:59Z")
It’s what you call a meta-crime. A crime about crime. Disturbs (as in shakes) the legal system, so they want to make darn sure people don’t do it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/19 "2005-10-29T03:20:01Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > …He said anyone involved would be “taken care of”. That could mean a pardon! 🙂 Yeah, but its not the first thing one thinks of when one hears the phrase: “He will be taken care of.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/20 "2005-10-29T04:06:53Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Yeah, but its not the first thing one thinks of when one hears the phrase: “He will be taken care of.” Not when Tony Soprano says it, but Bush? Who knows what that guy is thinking. Seriously, I thought it sounded very suspicious when I first heard it. Still, he’ll just say no indictiment = no involvement. What does he care about something like that? He’s not up for re-election. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395.md?page=2)