# A prediction on the outcome of the Libby indictments. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 29, 2005, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395 "2005-10-29T00:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/21 "2005-10-29T10:23:20Z")
> [@John F](#): > > Man, that seems like an astonishing amount of time all things considered isn’t it? > > How much time do you normally get if you walk up to some random guy on the street and shoot him to death (in a state with no death penalty)? IANAL, but I’ll take a WAG, and let the lawyers correct me: he’d be looking at charges that would add up to life without parole, and actually get somewhere between twenty and life, in today’s climate. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/22 "2005-10-29T11:09:41Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > Oh, but he is. He might love to crank it up a notch, but he can’t without some testimony from Scooter. And that will never happen. Scooter won’t get more than 6 months. Ask a lawyer what the penalty is likely to be for a guy in his position, with his background, given the charges. I’ll let the esteemed gentlemen of the bar correct me if I’m wrong whenever they show up, but I’d bet one of the things they’ll say is that we ought to check out the Federal sentencing guidelines. How to sentence for a combination of related offenses is a bit arcane; as best as I can tell, judges [can, but aren’t required](http://www.ussc.gov/2004guid/3d1_2.htm), to treat [multiple counts](http://www.ussc.gov/2004guid/3d1_4.htm) of perjury and obstruction of justice as a group of closely related offenses WRT sentencing. And to the best of my ability to parse this stuff in a fairly short time, treating offenses in that manner reduces the overall sentence that the defendant might be stuck with, so there appears to be a lot of play here. I’m hoping one or more of our legal eagles show up here and clarify this area of law for us. But let’s take the simplest case: Scooter gets nailed on one count of perjury or obstruction of justice, or that for sentencing purposes, all the multiple counts of different offenses get collapsed down into one count of perjury or obstruction. According to the sentencing guidelines, [obstruction of justice has a basic offense level of 14](http://www.ussc.gov/2004guid/2j1_2.htm); [same for perjury](http://www.ussc.gov/2004guid/2j1_3.htm). There are circumstances that can increase the level (“If the perjury, subornation of perjury, or witness bribery resulted in substantial interference with the administration of justice, increase by 3 levels”) but since I don’t know WTF constitutes substantial interference with the administration of justice, let’s stay away from that. [According to the table](http://www.ussc.gov/2004guid/5a.htm), someone with no criminal history who commits a Level 14 is looking at 15-21 months in prison. So if I’m parsing all this right (and I’m hoping the legal cavalry show up to confirm or correct me here) 15 months in a Club Fed is the _lightest_ sentence Libby can possibly get if he’s convicted on obstruction or either of the perjury counts. I’ll let the legal eagles discuss how much discretion the judge has to deal with the multiple counts of the different offenses, because I’m out of my depth here. But yesterday, Fitz seemed to think that Libby was potentially looking at quite a bit of time, and he’s the guy who does this as his day job; I’ll yield to his judgment. ---
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/23 "2005-10-29T11:18:39Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Well, if their not indicted, then their not “involved”. > > And you got the quote wrong. He said anyone involved would be “taken care of”. That could mean a pardon! 🙂 Plea deal and later a presidential pardon thanks to His Slickness lowering the bar on his way out. BTW, heard Kerry and Kennedy chime in… anybody see Hillary running to the mic to say how important telling the truth is? ---
**Author:** ![BarnOwl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e95f7d/32.png) [@BarnOwl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BarnOwl)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/24 "2005-10-29T13:41:03Z")
Wasn’t it yesterday morning that Chris Matthews just happened to mention how Ford pardoned Nixon before he ever went to trial? IIRC, Ford’s rationale was that this move would give the nation an opportunity to heal the wounds Watergate inflicted upon us all. Pardoning Nixon in the face of public outrage was so heroic in the Kennedys’ eyes, they bestowed their Profiles in Courage award on President Ford. But as Matthews pointed out, the pardon was actually a slick political ploy. It prevented all future trials of Nixon in which a lot of sleazy stuff about his Administration would have been revealed. So, don’t be terribly surprised if Bush pardons Libby before he goes to trial. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/25 "2005-10-29T23:32:11Z")
> [@E = mc²](#): > > Wasn’t it yesterday morning that Chris Matthews just happened to mention how Ford pardoned Nixon before he ever went to trial? > \ > > So, don’t be terribly surprised if Bush pardons Libby before he goes to trial. I would be surprised. Pardoning a President is one thing. Libby is small potatoes and actually convicting him _and only him_ is a great thing for the Administration. Especially if he pleads. It ends a very bad, dangerous political liability for Bush. Of all the possible outcomes of this investigation, this one is a win for Bush. They say “naughty, naughty, we didn’t know he was doing this, and he should get punished.” The end. Good night. Business as usual. ---
**Author:** ![lonesome\_loser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c68b51/32.png) [@lonesome\_loser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lonesome_loser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2005, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/26 "2005-10-29T23:40:04Z")
It may change of course. But it looks like at the moment they are planning on using the Reagan defense… [http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/29/leak.probe.ap/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/29/leak.probe.ap/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/27 "2005-10-30T00:03:03Z")
Just saw a headline that all by itself amounts to a prediction: _Cae el primero_ (“The first one falls”) More to follow, seems to me. ---
**Author:** ![elelle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f0a364/32.png) [@elelle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elelle)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/28 "2005-10-30T03:48:19Z")
Of course, there’s that squeensie hope that Scooter will, after a shattering life-changing event like this, have an epiphany, and foresee how history will ultimately untangle this event, as Watergate and past debacles, and just remember how to tell some sort of truth. OK, well, it might could happen. ---
**Author:** ![BarnOwl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e95f7d/32.png) [@BarnOwl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BarnOwl)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/29 "2005-10-30T13:03:32Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > I would be surprised. Pardoning a President is one thing. Libby is small potatoes and actually convicting him _and only him_ is a great thing for the Administration. Especially if he pleads. It ends a very bad, dangerous political liability for Bush. Of all the possible outcomes of this investigation, this one is a win for Bush. They say “naughty, naughty, we didn’t know he was doing this, and he should get punished.” The end. Good night. Business as usual. Plausible, perhaps, but you’re ignoring Dubya’s one semi-redeeming trait: profound loyalty to his staff. Scooter served him and Cheney so well. that Bush might be incapable of doing anything but pardoning Libby. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cheney has already demanded a Bush pardon when the appropriate moment has arrived. ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/30 "2005-10-30T14:28:48Z")
> [@E = mc²](#): > > Plausible, perhaps, but you’re ignoring Dubya’s one semi-redeeming trait: profound loyalty to his staff. > > Scooter served him and Cheney so well. that Bush might be incapable of doing anything but pardoning Libby. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cheney has already demanded a Bush pardon when the appropriate moment has arrived. He demands loyalty, but does it really go the other way? I’m not sure. Maybe his loyalty only lasts so long as the other person is useful to him. Anyone have something more concrete than this gut feeling of mine? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/31 "2005-10-30T14:52:51Z")
> [@E = mc²](#): > > I wouldn’t be surprised if Cheney has already demanded a Bush pardon when the appropriate moment has arrived. For himself or for Libby? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/32 "2005-10-30T14:54:42Z")
> [@SteveG1](#): > > He demands loyalty, but does it really go the other way? I’m not sure. Maybe his loyalty only lasts so long as the other person is useful to him. Anyone have something more concrete than this gut feeling of mine? I have the opposite gut feeling. I feel that Bush is a man of incredible loyalty to his friends and employees. ---
**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/33 "2005-10-30T16:49:09Z")
> [@This Year's Model](#): > > I have the opposite gut feeling. I feel that Bush is a man of incredible loyalty to his friends and employees. I agree. This is the Mafia, pure and simple. You’re loyal, I’m loyal to you. You turn on me, you’re dead. Scooter won’t get pardoned, but he also won’t serve more than two years in a country club jail (if even that). ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/34 "2005-10-30T17:11:18Z")
> [@toadspittle](#): > > I agree. This is the Mafia, pure and simple. You’re loyal, I’m loyal to you. You turn on me, you’re dead. > > Scooter won’t get pardoned, but he also won’t serve more than two years in a country club jail (if even that). That doesn’t make sense. You’re claiming that “this is the mafia”, but the only thing Bush can do to show his loyalty is to pardon Libby. Bush can’t influece the sentence Libby gets. Your premise does not lead to your conclusion. Maybe you can fill in the missing logic. And, for anyone who thinks Libby will get pardoned, I’ve got $20 that says he won’t. Any takers? ---
**Author:** ![Noctolator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Noctolator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noctolator)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/35 "2005-10-30T17:21:53Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > That doesn’t make sense. You’re claiming that “this is the mafia”, but the only thing Bush can do to show his loyalty is to pardon Libby. Bush can’t influece the sentence Libby gets. Your premise does not lead to your conclusion. Maybe you can fill in the missing logic. > > And, for anyone who thinks Libby will get pardoned, I’ve got $20 that says he won’t. Any takers? I bet as you do. No pardon for Libby. Libby pleas and/or goes down in the way that maximizes damage control without forcing Bush to waste political capital while his reserves are so drawn on a pardon. The Bush Administration is not the mafia. The mafia operates a little more unseen in government. The Bush Administration is a comedy troupe and Libby is being axed because he made a ‘funny once’ kind of gag. ---
**Author:** ![BarnOwl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e95f7d/32.png) [@BarnOwl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BarnOwl)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/36 "2005-10-30T17:27:57Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > That doesn’t make sense. You’re claiming that “this is the mafia”, but the only thing Bush can do to show his loyalty is to pardon Libby. Bush can’t influece the sentence Libby gets. Your premise does not lead to your conclusion. Maybe you can fill in the missing logic. > > And, for anyone who thinks Libby will get pardoned, I’ve got $20 that says he won’t. Any takers? I say he will, and I’m in for $20. The problem is the time limitation. President’s often pardon in the last minutes of their term. Can you live with that, or do you feel it’s unreasonable? ---
**Author:** ![Noctolator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Noctolator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noctolator)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/37 "2005-10-30T17:33:31Z")
> [@E = mc²](#): > > I say he will, and I’m in for $20. The problem is the time limitation. President’s often pardon in the last minutes of their term. Can you live with that, or do you feel it’s unreasonable? The pardon is only worth it if it halts a prosecution in its tracks from uncovering dangerous stuff. Otherwise it’s just a waste and looks bad, non? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/38 "2005-10-30T17:44:39Z")
Maybe, maybe not. I shall not bet, my liberal guilt index would top out when I think of the Mace children, stumbling shoeless to school with burlap shawls wrapped about their trembling shoulders, thier little Alan Greenspan lunchboxes stuffed only with day-old food stamp Twinkies. I only hope he doesn’t offer such attractive odds that my compassion is subverted by raw greed… A scenario exists. There is, for example, the issue of whether or not Libby is _continuing_ to obstruct justice by his refusal to roll over on _caporegime_ Cheney. If such is the case, and I suspect that it is, this complicates any plea-bargaining on his part. If Libby is only at risk for _past_ crimes, that’s one thing, if he is at risk for an _ongoing_ refusal to cooperate, that’s a whole different kettle of piranha. In the one instance, he may face nothing more dreadful than a few months at Club Fed (I know people who have…they say its like summer camp but you can’t leave…) followed by a cushy sinecure at Heritage or Enterprise. If the latter, he got problemos. My take on Mr. Fitz is that he is going to drill down to the facts, and the Devil take the hindmost. (I usually don’t much cotton to anal-retentive ironasses, but they have their uses…) If Libby is _still_ hiding a Big Hairy-Ass Deal, a pardon may be the only way to short-circuit that dreadful prospect. If the prospect of such a revelation from Libby is seen to outweigh the political damage of such a pardon, said pardon will be issued _toot damn sweet_! The spin? “Scooter” was simply over-zealous in defense of America, a patriot who merely inched over the line in his eagerness to protect the palladins of American security from the scoundrels like Wilson who would undermine the War on Terror. ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/39 "2005-10-30T21:13:45Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > The spin? “Scooter” was simply over-zealous in defense of America, a patriot who merely inched over the line in his eagerness to protect the palladins of American security from the scoundrels like Wilson who would undermine the War on Terror. Funny. I have a whole different definition of “patriot”. In my book the welfare of the country comes first, not party loyalties or conspiracies. But, I’m a weirdo. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2005, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395/40 "2005-10-30T21:51:18Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Maybe, maybe not. I shall not bet, my liberal guilt index would top out when I think of the Mace children, stumbling shoeless to school with burlap shawls wrapped about their trembling shoulders, thier little Alan Greenspan lunchboxes stuffed only with day-old food stamp Twinkies. I only hope he doesn’t offer such attractive odds that my compassion is subverted by raw greed… The \*\*Mace \*\*munchkins are forever in your debt… > [@](#): > > A scenario exists. There is, for example, the issue of whether or not Libby is _continuing_ to obstruct justice by his refusal to roll over on _caporegime_ Cheney. If such is the case, and I suspect that it is, this complicates any plea-bargaining on his part. If Libby is only at risk for _past_ crimes, that’s one thing, if he is at risk for an _ongoing_ refusal to cooperate, that’s a whole different kettle of piranha. Extremely unlikely. Remember, Fitzy said the investigation was pretty much over. I can’t remember his exact words, but it’s done. Just a little clean-up to make extra certain he can’t nail Rove, and we go to trial. Cheney’s role in the trial will be to answer the simplest questions-- who said what when. > [@](#): > > The spin? “Scooter” was simply over-zealous in defense of America, a patriot who merely inched over the line in his eagerness to protect the palladins of American security from the scoundrels like Wilson who would undermine the War on Terror. EOA. Early Onset Alzheimers. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-prediction-on-the-outcome-of-the-libby-indictments/328395.md?page=3)