I scanned the thread and did not see this point addressed yet, so I apologize if I missed it. I’m just wondering how the Democrats could be seen as having swung too far to the left if the public still trusts them more to handle all the essential matters than Republicans.
Is it that they feel they’ve gone too far left, but are still more trustworthy than Republicans?
How do we benchmark this election? We use a model that reflects normal midterm losses,the margin of victory in the previous election, and the economy. The remainder would be due to legislative over-reach, Citizens United, bad messaging by the White House, Fox News and other sundry factors.
So what’s the benchmark? It corresponds to a 45 seat loss by the Dems. If you think this is all hocus-pocus, check out the fit of the model in the link. It’s not perfect. But it explains a big chunk of the normal variation.
Let’s say that the sudden monetary advantage enjoyed by the Republicans and their anonymous and therefore unsurprisingly deceitful advertisements swing 2-3% of the House seats – or 9 to 13 elections. That would put the benchmark at 54-58 seats. I say that anything below the top of that range represents a resounding defeat for the Tea Party crazies.
Hey, there’s still plenty to debate. But to quote Jon Chait,“If you want to have the ‘what did Obama do wrong’ argument, you first need to establish what ‘wrong’ would look like.”