# A realistic look at the future in a COVID world -- 2020, 2021, and beyond **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [September 11, 2020, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340 "2020-09-11T11:42:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/41 "2020-09-25T12:41:48Z")
It is going to be a fiasco. There hasn’t been one thing yet that wasn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2020, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/42 "2020-09-26T10:55:13Z")
First Trump is sabotaging the CDC - the friggen CDC! - and now he wants to undercut the FDA. I _knew_ as soon as they announced their intention to give any vaccine additional scutiny his response was going to be “It’s political. They may want me to fail.” Yep. Hey dumbass, they’ve already sped up the process by bypassing standard practice and running phase III testing concurrent with phase II. Some of these vaccines are using brand new technology (e.g. RNA vaccines), and this virus is not like most we’ve dealt with. Maybe we need to take an extra minute to be sure we have something that actually works (unlike that first covid test we pumped out) and won’t end up killing more people than the virus itself! ---
**Author:** ![pullin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c57346/32.png) [@pullin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pullin)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2020, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/43 "2020-09-26T13:50:29Z")
Here is a fascinating look at planning for the distribution nightmare once a vaccine is approved. Kudos to UPS and FedEx who are already building additional freezer space and cold-chain capability into their networks. They at least, are trying to get ready. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/byW1GExQB84/maxresdefault.jpg "Distributing the COVID Vaccine: The Greatest Logistics Challenge Ever") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW1GExQB84) ---
**Author:** ![PoppaSan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/poppasan/32/189_2.png) [@PoppaSan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoppaSan)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/44 "2020-09-27T16:02:36Z")
> [@pullin](#): > > 1. Politicians Hey if Trump, Fauci, Pence and their families want to be first in line to prove the safety of the vaccine, that’s fine by me. They were the ones to push through the minimized safety regulations. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/45 "2020-09-27T20:28:52Z")
In terms of the likelihood of a vaccine as a means of quickly returning to everything as it was … [well](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#:~:text=This%20study%20found%20that%20the,(e.g.%2C%20social%20distancing).) it better be some combination of very effective and very accepted or already have a sizable portion of the population on the other side of infection with good immune protection. > [@](#): > > This study found that in the absence of other interventions to prevent an epidemic, the vaccine has to have an efficacy (i.e., probability of preventing infection) of at least 70% when vaccination covers at least 75% of the population. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic and obviate the need for any other measures (e.g., social distancing), the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 80% with a 75% vaccine coverage. These efficacy and coverage thresholds hold as the proportion of the population exposed increases from 5% to 30%, at which point the peak of the epidemic is rapidly approached as more and more people become exposed and immune. Achieving a 75% coverage is not trivial, although recent poll by Reuters/Ipsos of 1,215 American adults found that 75% of respondents would get a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine if assured it was safe. [15](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#bib0015) Even if enough people were willing to get the vaccine, there would have to be sufficient production capacity, vaccination supplies, and staffing as well as an adequate supply chain to reach everyone. > > There are circumstances in which a vaccine with an efficacy between 40% and 70% could prevent an epidemic and between 60% and 80% could extinguish an ongoing epidemic, but these would require a potentially unachievable 100% coverage of the population. All of this suggests that a vaccine alone may not allow everything to return to normal immediately (i.e., stop social distancing) unless both vaccine efficacy and vaccination coverage are fairly high. Therefore, it will be important to manage the expectations of the public who may believe that no more social distancing will be needed as soon as a vaccine becomes available, [16](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#), [17](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#), [18](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#), [19](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#), [20](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#) especially if that vaccine has an efficacy below 70%–80% range. … ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2020, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/46 "2020-09-29T20:19:49Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Therefore, it will be important to manage the expectations of the public who may believe that no more social distancing will be needed as soon as a vaccine becomes available, [16](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#), [17](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#), [18](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#), [19](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#), [20](https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext#) especially if that vaccine has an efficacy below 70%–80% range. … Good luck with that, when large segments of the population have given up on social distancing because (a) bars are open, (b) it’s too hard, (c) I don’t wanna, (d) isn’t this over yet? (e) the President doesn’t do it, (f) I’m healthy, I’m not going to get covid, (g) all of the above. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2021, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/47 "2021-02-14T20:44:07Z")
So, at what point should things reopen given the existence and ongoing distribution of vaccines. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2021, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/48 "2021-02-14T22:52:44Z")
Things shouldn’t reopen at all given given the existence and ongoing distribution of vaccines. They should reopen given a lack of infection and death. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2021, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/49 "2021-02-14T23:41:08Z")
I wasn’t advocating. I was trying to start discusion here, because it was not appropriate in the thread(s) it came up in, and this thread was pointed out as an appropriate venue. What do you think the numbers should look like? What if there’s ongoing infections and deaths, but they are primarily among people who refuse vaccination? ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2021, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/50 "2021-02-15T00:19:42Z")
FWIW [https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-chief-says-when-we-ll-be-back-to-normal/ar-BB1dFNz8?rt=1&ocid=Win10NewsApp&referrerID=InAppShare](https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-chief-says-when-we-ll-be-back-to-normal/ar-BB1dFNz8?rt=1&ocid=Win10NewsApp&referrerID=InAppShare) > With [coronavirus](https://www.eatthis.com/tag/coronavirus/?utm_source=msn&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=msn-feed) cases dropping, and vaccinations being distributed, there is “light at the end of the tunnel.” But that light always seems far away. When will we actually return to normal? When can, in the words of one TV interviewer, walk down the street together without wearing masks? Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, appeared on _[Fox News Sunday](https://www.foxnews.com/shows/fox-news-sunday)_ with host Chris Wallace, to discuss exactly when life might return to normal. > … > > “We anticipate by the end of March, we’ll have 200 million vaccines available,” answered Dr. Walensky. “I’m proud to say that as of yesterday, we have put 50 million vaccines into people’s arms. We anticipate by the end of the summer, we will have enough vaccine in order to vaccinate the entire U.S. population that is eligible.” > > There is one other hurdle however. “What I worry about is the vaccine hesitancy,” she said. “So once we have enough vaccine, at some point, we’re going to have more vaccine than people want it. And we very much need to make sure that everybody rolls up their sleeves when it’s turn and when they’re eligible. And much of the hard work that we’re doing now is to ensure that we can inform all of those who might be hesitant now as to the reasons why it’s safe and why it’s effective.” > … ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2021, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/51 "2021-02-15T02:28:55Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > People freak out about new risks and are basically indifferent to familiar ones. I would give this about two years, tops, before it becomes a familiar one. This is a good point. There may be a point where the disease has become objectively rare but is not familiar enough for the freak out factor to have gone away. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2021, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/52 "2021-02-15T04:27:41Z")
> [@eschrodinger](#): > > What do you think the numbers should look like? If there’s a high infection rate, but a low death rate, I don’t see a problem with opening. If this is a moderate/bad flu that doesn’t kill people, give stimulus to companies with liberal covid sick leaves so affected folk can just sit home. But that’s not the world we live in at the moment. We don’t know what the stats will be in a world where (say) 50% of the population is vaccinated. I’d like the numbers to be something like 0-1 fatalities per US county per week. Then we can say we’ve progressed if not won. I don’t see very clearly when or if we get there. > [@](#): > > What if there’s ongoing infections and deaths, but they are primarily among people who refuse vaccination? I’d still want to protect them, while making strong incentives that they get vaccinated: can’t fly without a vaccination, gov workers in health fields (EMTs for example) require vaccination to work, police and military require vaccination.\* \*I understand this is problematic while the vaccine is under Emergency Use Authorization, and I’d hope we can figure that out and require it anyway or clear the EUA hurdle and just approve the vaccine(s). ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2021, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/53 "2021-02-15T04:35:37Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > I’d still want to protect them, while making strong incentives that they get vaccinated: can’t fly without a vaccination, gov workers in health fields (EMTs for example) require vaccination to work, police and military require vaccination And teachers, definitely teachers. Not to protect the kids, but to protect the teachers and parents and grandparents. Basically don’t require everyone to vaccinate, but make it a huge pain in the ass if they don’t. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2021, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/54 "2021-02-16T05:35:51Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > “We anticipate by the end of March, we’ll have 200 million vaccines available,” answered Dr. Walensky. “I’m proud to say that as of yesterday, we have put 50 million vaccines into people’s arms. We anticipate by the end of the summer, we will have enough vaccine in order to vaccinate the entire U.S. population that is eligible.” > > There is one other hurdle however. “What I worry about is the vaccine hesitancy,” she said. “So once we have enough vaccine, at some point, we’re going to have more vaccine than people want it. And we very much need to make sure that everybody rolls up their sleeves when it’s turn and when they’re eligible. And much of the hard work that we’re doing now is to ensure that we can inform all of those who might be hesitant now as to the reasons why it’s safe and why it’s effective.” This is overly optimistic, frankly. I posted this from a [CNN article](https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/13/politics/biden-coronavirus/index.html) in another QZ thread earlier today: > Biden announced Thursday that the US will have purchased enough doses to vaccinate 300 million Americans by the end of July. White House aides quickly followed up with a clarification: vaccines aren’t vaccinations. Even though the doses will be available by July, it’s unclear when nearly all Americans will actually be vaccinated. The situation here in Washington state is confused, confusing, and very slow. The folks at the state COVID hotline told me despite my being at high risk from lupus, I likely won’t get the vaccine until the end of September. The state hasn’t even figured out what conditions will put people in phases 2, 3, or 4, let alone an estimate for when we’ll get to the next phase. (We’re quite far behind.) And many other states are struggling. My guess is it’ll be February, 2022 before we’re given the green light to forgo masks and ease up on social distancing: some states aren’t very efficient at distribution, the vaccine-reluctant are likely to trickle in to vaccination centers over months, and the anti-vaxx population may keep us from reaching herd immunity for a very long time. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2021, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/55 "2021-02-16T05:52:48Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > My guess is it’ll be February, 2022 before we’re given the green light to forgo masks and ease up on social distancing But the _actual_ forgoing of masks and social distancing will happen much much sooner, it looks like… ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2021, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/56 "2021-02-16T07:50:09Z")
Before rushing to reopen, ya might want to consider that there is still a lot that isn’t known, if the number of people who decline vaccination is significant, they could become potential spreaders in a population that may still be susceptible to further bouts of infection. > **[Covid: Ardrossan care worker caught virus twice and fears it could happen again](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-56049680)** > > Care worker Michelle Lamont tested positive for coronavirus last April and then again in November. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2021, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/57 "2021-02-16T14:01:12Z")
Does “testing positive” after having had COVID mean you have some symptoms but don’t get really sick? Or do we even know? ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2021, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/58 "2021-02-16T19:01:12Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Does “testing positive” after having had COVID mean you have some symptoms but don’t get really sick? Or do we even know ? This is an excellent question. When I see headlines like that, I feel like a lot of the information the public gets about COVID is crafted to push a narrative more than to inform. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2021, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/59 "2021-02-17T02:55:51Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Does “testing positive” after having had COVID mean you have some symptoms but don’t get really sick? Or do we even know? And what does testing positive “after having covid” mean? The tests, especially early on were plagued by both false positives and false negatives - are they only counting people who were symptomatic the first and second times, and omitting asymptomatic positives? If not, who’s to say the earlier test was accurate? ---
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2021, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340/60 "2021-02-17T17:12:03Z")
I haven’t seen this posted, but apologies if it has been and I’ve missed it. I guess this fits into this thread, though somewhat oddly: a realistic look at present and future _ **flu** _ in a COVID world, both in terms of type and frequency. **[How COVID-19 is changing the cold and flu season](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3)** was published in Nature last December. It reflects on how measures such as masking and social distancing are affecting the current flu seasons (and other conditions, but I’ll concentrate on flu); and what the knock-on effects in future seasons might be. > If this year’s flu season does fizzle out in the Northern Hemisphere, **that could make it harder to predict the right strains to put in 2021’s flu vaccine.** It could also have intriguing, longer-term consequences. Webby speculates that a low-flu season might kill off less-common variants of influenza. “A lot of different flus have been circulating in recent years. Are they all going to make it out of this or not?” he asks. “It’s possible that what this season will do is actually make the virological picture a lot simpler. That may be permanent, potentially.” > > At the same time, Webby adds, **the lack of viral competition in human hosts could conceivably open a door for new swine-flu variants in the future**. “We get a handful of those every year, in the agricultural-fair season,” Webby says. “ **One of the things holding those viruses back a lot is natural immunity. If flu is low for a few seasons, that might leave a gap for swine viruses to have more impact.** ” > > “ **I am sure that flu will come back with a vengeance at some stage in the future** ,” says Robert Ware, a clinical epidemiologist at Griffith University in Queensland, Australia, “but it might take a few years.” My bold. So the measures we take to protect us from COVID may, in the near future, make protecting ourselves from the flu more difficult. For the record, here’s a more recent article which makes similar arguments. [https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/covid-19-measures-also-suppress-flu-now](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/covid-19-measures-also-suppress-flu-now) j [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-realistic-look-at-the-future-in-a-covid-world-2020-2021-and-beyond/920340.md?page=4)