# A-Rod needs steroid testing **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [June 18, 2007, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468 "2007-06-18T15:40:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2007, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/21 "2007-06-19T19:23:12Z")
Personally, while I think Hank Aaron was great I don’t rank him as one of the best players of all time. As much as I dislike Bonds, I _do_ rank him as one of the best players of all time. Do I dislike Bond’s attitude? Yup. Do I dislike the fact that he almost certainly has doped? Yes. However, every baseball era has “something” that can be argued to have given some players an unfair advantage. When Babe Ruth was the sultan of swat, the lively ball was a new innovation, as was changing balls throughout play. Ruth’s style of swinging for the fences was relatively new, dead ball ballplayers swung for contact, not power. There’s an interesting article in an old issue of the Sporting News in which it relates the tale of Ty Cobb proving he could hit for power. Cobb was a bit miffed that the upstart Ruth was starting to get so much press attention for his home run hitting ability. So over a two game span in 1925, Cobb said he was going to swing for power to demonstrate that any good hitter can do so. The first game he was 6 for 6 with 3 HRs. The next game he had two more home runs. Cobb went back to his regular split-hand grip on the bat and to his style of play which relied on hitting for contact and being incredibly aggressive on the base paths. However, we’ll never really know if Ty Cobb could have hit for serious power over his career, for most of his career hitting for power was unheard of; and for the part of his career in which the lively ball existed, he deliberately chose not to hit for power. But it does illustrate a point that even Babe Ruth, who played in an era before widespread doping, had certain advantages. For _years_ pitchers could pitch with the knowledge that it was _okay_ to give up the fly ball. Today, we have some pitchers who specialize in forcing ground balls–and easy outs, as opposed to the pitchers who rely on strikeouts and pure power to send batters back to the dugout. In the deadball era, there were many pitchers who specialized in forcing lofting fly balls that were just as easy to turn into outs as some ground balls are today. With the “dead” nature of the ball at the time, and the architecture of ball parks, there just wasn’t any real threat of home runs. Home runs were oddities, not worth worrying seriously about. Scoring happened because of aggressive play on the base paths and crisply hit line drives. A lot of the pitchers who were used to pitching this way probably didn’t adjust well to the changes in the physics of the baseball and the ballparks themselves; so when Ruth started swinging for the fences, their only real response that worked was to walk him. Up until 1969, pitching mounds were not really standardized height-wise. Some mounds were rumored to be 20" tall and the average was around 16". Pitchers like Sandy Koufax most certainly benefited from this, but I saw Koufax pitch, and he was great and would have been on a 40" mound or a 2" one. To a degree, the best you can do is judge baseball players in comparison to their peers. It’s very hard to judge baseball players in comparison to players from different eras. We have no idea how Koufax would have done on the mounds that Clemens has pitched from. We have no idea how Koufax’s numbers would have looked against designated hitters, either. Nor do we know how he would have done in a 5-man rotation, in which his arm would have been able to rest much more. Koufax is quite possibly one of the best pitchers of all time, but since his career was extremely truncated by injury, he’s not on a lot of people’s lists of top-pitchers all time. Keeping that in mind, I will say this much. Babe Ruth hit 714 home runs, Hank Aaron hit 755, and Barry Bonds will probably hit 755+. Ruth did it in 8,398 at bats. Aaron hit 755 in **12364** at bats, so it took Aaron almost 4,000 more at bats than it did Ruth to break into the 700 club and eventually break his record. Aaron is amongst the all-time career leaders in ABs; the all time career leader, and incidentally the all time hits leader, is Pete Rose. I didn’t care much for Rose when he played, but I _did_ like Rose’s honesty when he responded to comparisons to Ty Cobb. He admitted he’d break Cobb’s hits record, but to do so he also had to set the record for most at bats and most outs, which Cobb did not have to do. Barry Bonds is currently at 9,676 at bats. And Bonds did not break 714 prior to exceeding Ruth’s total ABs. I don’t have exact numbers, but I do know that between the 2003 and 2004 season Bonds’ career ABs were at 8,725 and he had yet to beat Ruth’s record (his totals stood at 658 home runs.) So for what it’s worth, I think Ruth was the hands down best home run hitter of all time. He hit more per AB than anyone else, and the only men who have broken his career records had to play into their 40s to do so. And while I said it’s mostly impossible to compare players of different eras, I like to do so for fun, anyway. IMO the top ten position players of all time are: 1. Babe Ruth 2. Ty Cobb 3. Barry Bonds 4. Willie Mays 5. Ted Williams 6. Mickey Mantle 7. Honus Wagner 8. Lou Gehrig 9. Josh Gibson 10. Tris Speaker ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2007, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/22 "2007-06-19T19:53:03Z")
[QUOTE=What Exit?] Cal used Bennies. By the new standards he and even Mickey Mantle are not clean. [/QUOTE] I’m sorry, but I was just struck by the passage, “By the new standards …even Mickey Mantle” was not clean. Haven’t we known that Mickey and many others of his era weren’t clean since [Jim Bouton’s “Ball Four”](http://www.amazon.com/Ball-Four-Throwing-Knuckleball-Leagues/dp/0440104157/ref=sr_1_6/105-4803417-2004434?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1182282578&sr=8-6) was published in 1970? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2007, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/23 "2007-06-19T20:14:44Z")
[QUOTE=Martin Hyde] However, every baseball era has “something” that can be argued to have given some players an unfair advantage. [/quote] You make some good points, but Ruth’s decision and ability to hit for power didn’t give him an unfair advantage over anyone. He used a different strategy. Cobb’s refusal to do wasn’t more fair. The livelier balls gave him an advantage over previous players and palyed to his strengths, but I think this is a different issue. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2007, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/24 "2007-06-19T20:42:46Z")
[QUOTE=Martin Hyde] There’s an interesting article in an old issue of the Sporting News in which it relates the tale of Ty Cobb proving he could hit for power. Cobb was a bit miffed that the upstart Ruth was starting to get so much press attention for his home run hitting ability. So over a two game span in 1925, Cobb said he was going to swing for power to demonstrate that any good hitter can do so. The first game he was 6 for 6 with 3 HRs. The next game he had two more home runs. Cobb went back to his regular split-hand grip on the bat and to his style of play which relied on hitting for contact and being incredibly aggressive on the base paths. [/QUOTE] This story is, as you might imagine, almost certainly a myth. Cobb did in fact once hit five home runs in two games, but the part about him claiming immediately before the games that he would show he could do it, too, did not appear in any publication at the time, and in fact was not reported until 20 years later, which is precisely what you would expect of an urban legend. Cobb did not dislike Ruth; Tom Stanton, who studied the Cobb-Ruth transition, claims Cobb respected Ruth’s abilities - Ruth, of course, was also a high average hitter and (at that time) a good outfielder. The story also does not make any sense, since if Cobb was capable of hitting three home runs a game at will, he would of course have continued to do so. Sorry to be a spoilsport. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2007, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/25 "2007-06-19T22:54:17Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] This story is, as you might imagine, almost certainly a myth. Cobb did in fact once hit five home runs in two games, but the part about him claiming immediately before the games that he would show he could do it, too, did not appear in any publication at the time, and in fact was not reported until 20 years later, which is precisely what you would expect of an urban legend. Cobb did not dislike Ruth; Tom Stanton, who studied the Cobb-Ruth transition, claims Cobb respected Ruth’s abilities - Ruth, of course, was also a high average hitter and (at that time) a good outfielder. The story also does not make any sense, since if Cobb was capable of hitting three home runs a game at will, he would of course have continued to do so. Sorry to be a spoilsport. [/QUOTE] I don’t think anyone believes that Cobb could have hit three home runs a game at will. However the Sporting News is a generally respected publication, and was extremely respected when the article in question was written. I also didn’t make the claim that Cobb disliked Ruth, only that he was somewhat envious concerning the attention Ruth was getting. There’s no particular reason to apologize for being a spoilsport since I don’t really accept your interpretation of the events in question. This isn’t the first time I’ve related this story on a forum nor is it the first time it has been challenged. Whether or not you choose to believe a decades old Sporting News article is your choice; I’ve always felt it was reliable and continue to feel so. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/26 "2007-06-20T01:21:10Z")
I used to participate in a usenet group where a catchphrase was: “Ty Cobb could’ve done it, if he wanted to.” Thanks for the funny memories. ---
**Author:** ![Etherman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/958977/32.png) [@Etherman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Etherman)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/27 "2007-06-20T01:23:25Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] I know he’s the captain and he clearly takes a lot of pride in being shortstop for the Yankees, but he should have moved to third. He has a strong arm and not that much range, and Rodriguez is a better shortstop. [/QUOTE] I’d argue, as a non-Yankees fan, that the Yankees are better the way it worked out. I don’t think Jeter could have made the transition nearly as well. Yes A-Rod is a better shortstop, but I think he’s way better at 3rd that Jeter could be. I’m sure Jeter could have done it, and I know A-Rod struggled, but just the message that you are essentially demoting the team leader from the most important position on the field can’t be overlooked. So you give up a little ability at short, but for a lot of improvement at 3rd, and keep your captain in place and not doubting his leadership. We all know the symbolism the Yankees place on the team captain. From a pure stats point of view, I do think they have a more solid left side this way, simply, as I said, they gave up a little at SS to improve 3rd, but I think what they would have lost at 3rd with Jeter wouldn’t make up for the gain at SS with A-Rod Realistically though, Stienbrenner would’ve signed him and sat him as #2 SS, just to keep him away from the BoSox. ---
**Author:** ![dgrdfd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@dgrdfd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dgrdfd)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/28 "2007-06-20T02:03:29Z")
[QUOTE=lalenin] Isn’t part of the reason there is a controversy about Barry Bonds the fact that he suddenly started hitting a lot of home runs? More than he ever had? [/QUOTE] Not really: ```auto Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP +--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+ 1986 21 PIT NL 113 413 72 92 26 3 16 48 36 7 65 102 .223 .330 .416 103 172 2 2 2 2 4 RoY-6 1987 22 PIT NL 150 551 99 144 34 9 25 59 32 10 54 88 .261 .329 .492 114 271 0 3 3 3 4 1988 23 PIT NL 144 538 97 152 30 5 24 58 17 11 72 82 .283 .368 .491 147 264 0 2 14 2 3 1989 24 PIT NL 159 580 96 144 34 6 19 58 32 10 93 93 .248 .351 .426 125 247 1 4 22 1 9 1990 25 PIT NL 151 519 104 156 32 3 33 114 52 13 93 83 .301 .406 .565 170 293 0 6 15 3 8 SS,MVP-1,AS 1991 26 PIT NL 153 510 95 149 28 5 25 116 43 13 107 73 .292 .410 .514 161 262 0 13 25 4 8 SS,MVP-2 1992 27 PIT NL 140 473 109 147 36 5 34 103 39 8 127 69 .311 .456 .624 205 295 0 7 32 5 9 SS,MVP-1,AS 1993 28 SFG NL 159 539 129 181 38 4 46 123 29 12 126 79 .336 .458 .677 206 365 0 7 43 2 11 SS,MVP-1,AS 1994 29 SFG NL 112 391 89 122 18 1 37 81 29 9 74 43 .312 .426 .647 182 253 0 3 18 6 3 SS,MVP-4,AS 1995 30 SFG NL 144 506 109 149 30 7 33 104 31 10 120 83 .294 .431 .577 168 292 0 4 22 5 12 MVP-12,AS 1996 31 SFG NL 158 517 122 159 27 3 42 129 40 7 151 76 .308 .461 .615 186 318 0 6 30 1 11 SS,MVP-5,AS 1997 32 SFG NL 159 532 123 155 26 5 40 101 37 8 145 87 .291 .446 .585 170 311 0 5 34 8 13 SS,MVP-5,AS 1998 33 SFG NL 156 552 120 167 44 7 37 122 28 12 130 92 .303 .438 .609 177 336 1 6 29 8 15 MVP-8,AS 1999 34 SFG NL 102 355 91 93 20 2 34 83 15 2 73 62 .262 .389 .617 162 219 0 3 9 3 6 MVP-24 2000 35 SFG NL 143 480 129 147 28 4 49 106 11 3 117 77 .306 .440 .688 191 330 0 7 22 3 6 SS,MVP-2,AS 2001 36 SFG NL 153 476 129 156 32 2 73 137 13 3 177 93 .328 .515 .863 262 411 0 2 35 9 5 SS,MVP-1,AS 2002 37 SFG NL 143 403 117 149 31 2 46 110 9 2 198 47 .370 .582 .799 275 322 0 2 68 9 4 SS,MVP-1,AS 2003 38 SFG NL 130 390 111 133 22 1 45 90 7 0 148 58 .341 .529 .749 231 292 0 2 61 10 7 SS,MVP-1,AS 2004 39 SFG NL 147 373 129 135 27 3 45 101 6 1 232 41 .362 .609 .812 260 303 0 3 120 9 5 SS,MVP-1,AS 2005 40 SFG NL 14 42 8 12 1 0 5 10 0 0 9 6 .286 .404 .667 177 28 0 1 3 0 0 2006 41 SFG NL 130 367 74 99 23 0 26 77 3 0 115 51 .270 .454 .545 156 200 0 1 38 10 9 2007 42 SFG NL 63 169 34 49 8 0 14 31 4 0 69 28 .290 .496 .586 187 99 0 1 26 1 7 +--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+ 22 Seasons 9676 2890 77 1961 141 1513 .299 .444 .608 182 4 90 671 104 159 ``` Source: [Barry Bonds Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com](http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bondsba01.shtml) Besides the anomaly that was the 73 home run year, his numbers have remained relatively consistent. Even though his body has certainly blown up, his home run numbers don’t really seem to. I can’t wait for Barry to break The Record. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/29 "2007-06-20T02:49:37Z")
[QUOTE=jsgoddess] I used to participate in a usenet group where a catchphrase was: “Ty Cobb could’ve done it, if he wanted to.” Thanks for the funny memories. [/QUOTE] When I first started debating baseball online I had some encounters with a guy who took Ty Cobb love to a whole new level. For most of my life, I had thought of Cobb as a generally great, old-time ballplayer, but I never really ranked him up there with Ruth, Mays, Mantle, Williams et cetera. This particular guy actually has a Ty Cobb shrine more or less online, with meticulously researched articles galore. Me and him never did see eye-to-eye on Cobb (he thinks Cobb is the best all time, I think Ruth is a superior offensive player.) But his arguments were extremely well-grounded statistically, and it did lead me to eventually come around to believing Ty Cobb is definitely one of the 5 best baseball players ever, and quite possibly better than any position player other than Ruth. FWIW when it comes to sportswriters and peers who had seen/played with both Ruth and Cobb, more of them seem to suggest Cobb was the best all time than they do Ruth. Cobb also set more records during his career than anyone before or since (90 or so) and about 30 of them still stand and probably will never be broken (records like most career steals of home, highest career batting average and et cetera.) ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/30 "2007-06-20T02:54:44Z")
Also, I believe Cobb had legitimate power that never manifested as home run hitting power because of the era he played in. If you look at pretty much every power statistic aside from home runs, Cobb’s numbers were dominating throughout the era in which he played. He lead the league in slugging 8 times and was in the top 3 14 times. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/31 "2007-06-20T13:26:58Z")
[QUOTE=Etherman] Realistically though, Stienbrenner would’ve signed him and sat him as #2 SS, just to keep him away from the BoSox. [/QUOTE] Realistically, the Yankees didn’t make their move until the Rodriguez-for-Ramirez trade fell through. 😉 > [@dgrdfd](#): > > Not really: The jump in slugging and on base percentage doesn’t stick out to you? Nor does the fact that, starting at age 35, he basically matched or beat his intial career high for home runs (46, when he was 28) for five years in a row? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/32 "2007-06-20T14:16:51Z")
[QUOTE=dgrdfd] Besides the anomaly that was the 73 home run year, his numbers have remained relatively consistent. Even though his body has certainly blown up, his home run numbers don’t really seem to. [/QUOTE] Now, that simply isn’t true at all. In the year before the 73 homers Bonds hit 49, a career high, in only 480 at bats - better than a homer every 10 at bats, something he had never done before. Just the year before that he hit 34 homers in just 103 games/355 at bats, which to that point was his best homer pace ever. Then, AFTER the 73-homer season, Bonds hit 46 homers in just 403 at bats, 45 in 390, and 45 in just 373 - Ruthian levels of homer-hitting. The raw totals don’t look amazing becuse he was never being pitched to, but his ability to hit homers when he WAS pitched to was astonishing, way above anything he’d done in the first half of his career. Bonds’s home run rate starting in 1999 jumped a huge amount. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/33 "2007-06-20T18:44:28Z")
Plus the homers increased when his age would suggest they would be falling off. Two reasons he wont get caught. 1\> baseball does not want to catch Arod. 2. The users are far ahead of the testing procedures. If the layman is aware of steroids and HGH , it is likely even newer drugs are being used. When players plead lack of knowledge about what they take ,I am skeptical. Most athletes get very intelligent about drugs, from vitamins to HGH. You can have a long discussion about them and be amazed at how much they have learned. From medical impacts to how they act in combination and whats coming up, users get educated. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/34 "2007-06-20T19:39:00Z")
So, when do you project A-Rod’ll beat the record? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/35 "2007-06-20T19:49:24Z")
Gotta stay another 5 or 6 years. ---
**Author:** ![Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bc8723/32.png) [@Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/36 "2007-06-20T20:08:22Z")
> [@](#): > > Besides the anomaly that was the 73 home run year, his numbers have remained relatively consistent. Even though his body has certainly blown up, his home run numbers don’t really seem to. Are you **kidding me?** Total number of home runs per **year** , maybe he’s been consistent. Try calculating the number of plate appearances per home run instead. If you add together his ABs and BBs to get a rough idea of his number of appearances at the plate, what you get is… First five seasons: 18.54 PAs per HR Second five seasons: 18.96 PAs her HR Third five seasons: 12.18 PAs per HR Fourth five seasons: 10.2 PAs per HR That’s not what I’d call “relatively consistent.” ---
**Author:** ![dgrdfd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@dgrdfd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dgrdfd)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2007, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/37 "2007-06-20T21:31:57Z")
I stand corrected. I was simply looking at the home run numbers. I didn’t get into any of the other statistics. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2007, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/38 "2007-06-21T12:12:25Z")
[QUOTE=gonzomax] Plus the homers increased when his age would suggest they would be falling off. Two reasons he wont get caught. 1\> baseball does not want to catch Arod. 2. The users are far ahead of the testing procedures. If the layman is aware of steroids and HGH , it is likely even newer drugs are being used. When players plead lack of knowledge about what they take ,I am skeptical. Most athletes get very intelligent about drugs, from vitamins to HGH. You can have a long discussion about them and be amazed at how much they have learned. From medical impacts to how they act in combination and whats coming up, users get educated. [/QUOTE] I have no idea what you are talking about. He is not even 32 years old. This is when he should be peaking. It’s not like he is being fitted for a cane. His homers should increase with age until his early thirties and then start falling off later. That is when men tend to be strongest, especially after years of constant training. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2007, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/39 "2007-06-21T13:55:47Z")
[QUOTE=Loach] I have no idea what you are talking about. He is not even 32 years old. This is when he should be peaking. [/QUOTE] Baseball players peak at age 27-28. Some peak later but it’s unusual. If he ages the way superstar players usually do, Rodriguez will decline slowly for the next few years (though, granted, he got off to a huge start this April.) Lots of players have looked like they had a shot at 700-800 homers and then something came up - injury, usually. It’s easy to say Rodriguez, well, he’s only 31 years old and has hit 491 so he’s a lock, right? But 31-year-olds are at the END of their peak years, usually. Suppose Rodriguez were to end this year with 520 homers and then hit 40 a year for 3 years, then he gets hurt, and hits 20 a year for 3 years, then retires at 38. He’d still be short of Aaron/Bonds, and that would be a hell of a lot of home runs yet to hit. Sammy Sosa just hit his 600th homer and obviously will not make 700; at this point 620 will be a stretch. But he was already at 539 by the age of 34 coming off a 40-homer season, and then he just got old. Ken Griffey Jr. had already hit 460 homers at the age of 31. He’s still playing well but 700 looks very unlikely. Injuries. Jimmie Foxx had 500 homers at the age of 32. He hit only 34 more. Injuries and substance abuse. As amazing a pace as he is on, the odds are actualkly against A-Rod getting to 700-750 homers. I kjnow it seems bizarre to say that but it’s true. A ballplayer, especially in his 30s, is always one injury, one microsecond of bat speed lost, one bad circumstance away from his career grinding to a halt. Most players decline in their 30s; if A-Rod goes out there at age 35 three years from now and bats .309 with 31 homers it’ll be a great year but will probably not be enough homers to keep pace with Aaron. It’s harder than the numbers would suggest at first glance. Now, of course, maybe he does stay healthy and productive. He COULD hit 850 homers. Ya don’t really know. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2007, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468/40 "2007-06-21T14:35:18Z")
Yep staying healthy is the key. Griffey could have done it if he didn’t keep running into walls when he was younger. If A-Rod doesn’t get hurt I think he has a great shot at it. After all Aaron never hit 50 HRs in a single year. But he was able to maintain a steady pace until he was 40 and then he trailed off. In fact he hit 47 at age 37, the highest in his career and then hit 40 two years later. The next three years (his last 3) he hit 42 total. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-rod-needs-steroid-testing/408468.md?page=1)