I agree with all that except perhaps the last paragraph - I’m not sure it was internal rebellion and press outrage that made May go early, but rather hubris - she (and presumably, her advisers) believed they could simply force it all through (see also: her calling an election), turns out they were fatally incorrect.
Exactly this.
Nobody else wants a no-deal Brexit; Parliament has voted against it on a number of occasions, with all parties concurring.
You don’t hear so much about the ERG recently, but they always wanted a no-deal Brexit for exactly GW’s reason.
I’m not sure how, but they’re still pulling the strings.
And now their puppet Boris has given them what they want.
And for the rest of us…?
Completely disagree. Brexit is a Tory mess and however incompetent Corbyn was, neither he nor Labour was the biggest problem here.
- Anti-EU unrest and rebellion had been an internal Tory party problem since Major.
- Tory PM David Cameron called the Referendum purely in order to sort out Tory party squabbles over Europe once and for all.
- Tory PM David Cameron resigned rather than deal with the fallout of a result he had never planned for.
- Tories fought Tories like cats in a sack over what they actually wanted for Brexit.
- The Tory PM, Tory government and majority-Tory Commons drifted chaotically into an ill-defined version of Brexit whose obvious problems were left to fester
- Tory Brexit Ministers David Davis and Dominic Raab failed to do the work and tried to substitute bluster, to no avail, getting pushed around by the EU on almost every issue.
- The Tory party voted against its own governments’ Withdrawal Agreement 3 times/ The Tory government failed to get its own party to vote for its own Withdrawal Agreement 3 times.
- The Tory party finally knifed its own PM and wasted 3 of the last 6 months of negotiating time in a leadership contest before finally electing an obvious incompetent more because he could deliver electoral gains for the party rather than out af any serious belief he had what it took to take control of the most important policy crisis since the War.
- The Tories did win an election promising to Get Brexit Done on the basis of their splendid new Withdrawal Agreement which they then finally voted for and signed.
- The Tories got nowhere with the free trade deal in the intervening time and refused to ask for an extension even during a pandemic for reasons that escape all understanding.
- The Tories are now repudiating their Withdrawal Agreement, breaking international law and jeopardising their much-trumpeted free trade deal with the US.
Brexit is a Tory fuck up. There is only one party to blame for this utter fucking shambles and accurately pointing out that Labour were also a bit shit won’t change that fact.
There was certainly a great deal of hubris from May (and more so from Timothy and Hill) but there was sustained pressure from the press demanding it be submitted ASAP and suggesting that any hesitation was, at best, pusillanimous and arguably treacherous.
I was literally writing something along these lines but you’ve done it more succinctly (and first).
May pulled the trigger on Article 50 to instigate what was a massive game of political “chicken”, counting on the other side (both domestically and internationally) to turn aside. Unfortunately, this turned out to be like driving a clapped-out Vespa when the EU was driving a lorry - it was never going to end well.
I agree with all of that, but you can’t deny that a better-organised opposition with a more palatable leader could have mitigated or ended it. We’ve had 2 general elections since the referendum, both of which completely failed to change the direction the government was taking (well, maybe not completely - if anything, it’s got worse).
In short, I certainly wouldn’t suggest Labour are anywhere near as culpable as the Tories for where we are now, but they do have to take some responsibility.
A long article, but worth reading.
Yes. STOP BLAMING THE OPPOSITION.
That goes for all you ex-colonials as well.
American here, but an avid follower of British politics …
As to Labour’s part in this … By signally failing to provide a coherent palatable alternative, they in effect ceded the field to the Tories. Who as @Stanislaus has so neatly described in his last two posts, took that clear running room and utterly screwed the pooch.
As with the US Democrats, that’s not to blame Labour for what happened. But it is to blame Labour (and perhaps the Dems in a couple months) for utterly failing to correctly grasp a golden opportunity to forestall disaster. Sadly both Labour and the Democrats have prior form on this particular mistake.
Exactly my point. Maybe 50 years. Point 3 is the sticking point and probably never possible.
I was going to say something similar. IOW, pulling the trigger is a way (albeit a crappy way) to get the leverage to force your own side into alignment. A ticking clock concentrates minds. Of course sometimes the opposite obtains since everybody knows that everybody knows the clock is ticking and each decides their own hand gets stronger as the time runs down. It turns into a game of “chicken”.
In this case multi-level chicken: UK vs EU at the top and the various UK factions against one another at the next level. Everybody thinks their leverage is increasing as time runs out. They all seem to be bad at recognizing the other guys think the same thing.
He was definitely on the radar and his candidacy was treated as a matter of course until he announced otherwise at a press conference that surprised even his own supporters.
Boris did stand. Michael Gove was his campaign manager. He spent some time telling people that Boris was just the man to be PM.
Then one day, he accounced that he, Michael Gove, would be standing for PM as he had come to realise that Boris “lacked grip” and would be a terrible Prime Minister.
He thus blew up Boris’s 2016 leadership campaign, and fatally sabotaged his own at launch because no one likes a backstabber even when they’re right.
Later, in 2019 when Boris became leader and offered him a cabinet position, Gove found that Boris had what it took to be a great PM.
By their fruits shall ye know them.
It seems like there’s one thing both Trump and Biden agree on, as well as both parties in the US Congress. They don’t like Johnson’s change to the withdrawal agreement.
Considering that one of Johnson’s great aims is a free trade agreement with the US, that’s not promising.
The UK could easily end up with no-deal with the EU and no-deal with the US.
“The Trump administration, state department and the US Congress would all be aligned in the desire to see the Good Friday agreement preserved to see the lack of a border maintained.”
The congressman, who sits on the ways and means committee in the House of Representatives, told Radio 4’s Today programme: “If the UK does it in such a way that it violates the Good Friday Agreement, there will be no US-UK free trade agreement.
“So, the UK needs to understand there will be consequences that stretch well beyond just dealings with the EU on this matter.”
I’m semi-embarrassed to admit that when I switched to this tab with @mikecurtis’s cite at the top, my quick scan of the headline read it as “Anal Colony quits UK envoy … Huh, What??, screech, mental rewind … Amal Clooney quits UK envoy, Whew!”
Carry on.
For every action, a reaction: the EU has begun the process of instigating legal action against the UK for breaking the Withdrawal Agreement:
The EU has begun legal proceedings against the UK after it refused to ditch plans to override sections of its Brexit divorce deal.
An EU deadline for the government to remove sections of the Internal Market Bill expired on Wednesday.
The “letter of formal notice” could eventually lead to a court case against the UK at the European Court of Justice, the EU’s top court.
But the EU has not walked away from talks over a post-Brexit trade deal.
The Withdrawal Agreement (which the UK voluntarily signed, which didn’t need a lot of time for scrutiny because it was such a great deal for Britain, which every Tory MP was elected on a platform of supporting) specifically gave the ECJ power to rule on alleged breaches of the deal. Countdown to Tories saying how shocked and outraged they are that the ECJ has this power starts now…
I couldn’t find a better place to put this, so forgive me if I’m stepping wrong, but the thread title looks right.
As an American, I only loosely follow British politics, so I’m wondering if anyone can offer a simple summary of the state of Brexit. The Wikioedia page is frankly impenetrable, going into details on every sub-issue but not really offering an overall summary.
So what is the state of Brexit implementation? About six months ago, I heard about the protests in Northern Ireland, because Brexit didn’t take into account the desire of Northern Ireland residents to be able to travel and trade freely with Ireland. But I haven’t heard anything since then.
Has Britain come to an agreement with the European Union? If not, how is Europe dealing with Britain now?
Can anyone offer a simple update?
As regards the NI Protocol - still in stand-off, AFAIK, though there were signs of some movement until the most recent turbulence (unrelated) within the UK government. Whether there’s been any real development since then, or whether the relevant ministers have been distracted over the last couple of weeks, I don’t know. In these sorts of negotiations, no news may indicate good news on the way - until it doesn’t.
Sure:
Europe is dealing with Britain now as a country outside the EU. As it is. There are those in the UK who are happy with this arrangement, and those that are not. Many of those happy with this arrangement are still blaming the EU and Remain for any little wrinkles still left unresolved.