# A Speculative Exercise **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 9, 2000, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493 "2000-11-09T17:54:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/1 "2000-11-09T17:54:25Z")
Would anyone like to determine, given current numbers, how the electoral vote would tally if, rather than winner-take-all, the states awarded their votes in a proportion commensurate with the candidate’s percentage of the state popular vote? Just to see where we’d stand right now? ---
**Author:** ![pldennison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9fc29f/32.png) [@pldennison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pldennison)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/2 "2000-11-09T18:59:52Z")
Taking their percentages from [CNN.com](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.ev.html), calculating the proportion of each state’s electoral votes and allowing for fractions/decimals, I come up with: **Bush** : 243.73 electoral votes **Gore** : 243.51 electoral votes These results do not include Florida or Oregon. When I include them with the current percentages, I get: **Bush** : 259.34 electoral votes **Gore** : 258.98 electoral votes Wow, talk about a mandate. It really clears up the differences between the major party candidates. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Navigator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/4af34b/32.png) [@Navigator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Navigator)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/3 "2000-11-09T19:06:23Z")
A better exercise, might be to see how the electorate would have voted if each precinct got a vote for the winner in that precient, and the winner of the state got two votes (the ‘senator’ votes each state gets). I don’t got the time to tally the counties, but I think that would show a large Bush victory. Peace. ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/4 "2000-11-09T19:12:00Z")
Another question along the same lines: Suppose, for whatever reason, the state of Florida has not chosen 25 electors to vote for the President by the first Monday in December. A variety of possibilities present themselves here, including the idea that Federal courts sequester Florida ballots to investigate allegations of fraud (intentional or erroneous) as has been suggested on other threads. In that case, the election goes to the House. Where each state delegation casts a vote, among the top three candidates. Who came in third in the popular vote? What is the composition of the state delegations, as of this election? ---
**Author:** ![jmullaney](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/85e7bf/32.png) [@jmullaney](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jmullaney)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/5 "2000-11-09T19:18:26Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Navigator \* > I don’t got the time to tally the counties, but I think that would show a large Bush victory. Well, the lazy man’s way to do this is just add the number of Republican seats and Democrat seats in the congress. Bush – 272 Gore – 263 Adding in D.C. for Gore, he’d be up to 266. Someone check my math! ---
**Author:** ![pldennison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9fc29f/32.png) [@pldennison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pldennison)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/6 "2000-11-09T19:27:38Z")
FTR, here are the numbers I used. I have them sorted by Bush percentage, then Gore percentage, so you can compare their percentages easily by state. ```auto Total Bush % Gore % Bush EV Gore EV ID 4 69 28 2.76 1.12 WY 3 69 28 2.07 0.84 UT 5 67 26 3.35 1.3 NE 5 63 33 3.15 1.65 ND 3 61 33 1.83 0.99 OK 8 60 38 4.8 3.04 SD 3 60 38 1.8 1.14 TX 32 59 38 18.88 12.16 AK 3 59 28 1.77 0.84 KS 6 58 37 3.48 2.22 MT 3 58 34 1.74 1.02 MS 7 57 42 3.99 2.94 IN 12 57 41 6.84 4.92 SC 8 57 41 4.56 3.28 NC 14 56 43 7.84 6.02 AL 9 56 42 5.04 3.78 GA 13 55 43 7.15 5.59 LA 9 53 45 4.77 4.05 WV 5 52 46 2.6 2.3 VA 13 52 45 6.76 5.85 TN 11 51 48 5.61 5.28 MO 11 51 47 5.61 5.17 AR 6 51 45 3.06 2.7 CO 8 51 42 4.08 3.36 AZ 8 50 46 4 3.68 OH 21 50 46 10.5 9.66 FL 25 49 49 12.25 12.25 NV 4 49 46 1.96 1.84 IA 7 48 49 3.36 3.43 WI 11 48 48 5.28 5.28 NH 4 48 47 1.92 1.88 OR 7 48 46 3.36 3.22 MI 18 47 51 8.46 9.18 PA 23 47 51 10.81 11.73 NM 5 47 49 2.35 2.45 KY 8 47 41 3.76 3.28 MN 10 46 48 4.6 4.8 WA 11 45 50 4.95 5.5 ME 4 44 49 1.76 1.96 IL 22 43 55 9.46 12.1 DE 3 42 55 1.26 1.65 CA 54 42 54 22.68 29.16 NJ 15 41 56 6.15 8.4 VT 3 41 51 1.23 1.53 MD 10 40 57 4 5.7 CT 8 39 56 3.12 4.48 HI 4 38 56 1.52 2.24 NY 33 35 60 11.55 19.8 MA 12 33 60 3.96 7.2 RI 4 32 61 1.28 2.44 DC 3 9 86 0.27 2.58 ------ ------ 259.34 258.98 ``` ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/7 "2000-11-09T19:40:54Z")
**Phil:** Thanks for doing that work. Do you know what it would be if you factored Nader’s percentages into it where possible? ---
**Author:** ![Navigator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/4af34b/32.png) [@Navigator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Navigator)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/8 "2000-11-09T19:44:06Z")
> [@](#): > > Someone check my math! Not a true result, since not all congressional districts were on the ballot this time, and some districs vote differently for president than they do locally. A good first guess though. Any way you cut it this election shows no mandate for either party, but instead, [Dana Carvey doing G. Bush voice] Stay the course [/voice] Which is ironies of ironies… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![jmullaney](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/85e7bf/32.png) [@jmullaney](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jmullaney)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/9 "2000-11-09T19:56:32Z")
Well, then it should lean even more to Bush since the Senate is 50/50 while the House is 222 to, um, 216? 222/438 as x/538 == 272.6 for Bush. pl’s count is better though since he accounts for state size. You have to round though. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/10 "2000-11-09T20:21:51Z")
Does anyone have a link where I can see a list of US Representatives, their states, and their affiliation? ---
**Author:** ![KSO](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f07891/32.png) [@KSO](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KSO)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/11 "2000-11-09T20:23:38Z")
According to my friend Jim (I know, not the most reliable source, but he’s generally on the money), the Republicans now control 28 delegations, so if it goes to the House, Dubya is in (theoretically). ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/12 "2000-11-09T20:29:32Z")
Thanks, KSO, that’s what I’m lookin’ for. pldennison, your numbers don’t add up. "These results do not include Florida or Oregon. When I include them with the current percentages, I get: Bush: 259.34 electoral votes Gore: 258.98 electoral votes" There are 538 EC votes. You’ve got 518.32. ---
**Author:** ![Navigator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/4af34b/32.png) [@Navigator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Navigator)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/13 "2000-11-09T20:49:35Z")
538 total EC votes - 25 Florida uncounted - 7 Oregon uncounted * * * 506 EC votes… The math is still off… ---
**Author:** ![Navigator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/4af34b/32.png) [@Navigator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Navigator)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/14 "2000-11-09T21:11:28Z")
Please disregard the previous post!!! \<\\> 😉 ---
**Author:** ![pldennison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9fc29f/32.png) [@pldennison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pldennison)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/15 "2000-11-09T21:14:02Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Connor \* > \*\*pldennison, your numbers don’t add up. > > "These results do not include Florida or Oregon. When I include them with the current percentages, I get: > > Bush: 259.34 electoral votes > Gore: 258.98 electoral votes" > > There are 538 EC votes. You’ve got 518.32. \*\* Uh, you did notice I included only Bush and Gore’s percentages, right? Add across their percentage columns, and you’ll note that the percentages do not add to 100%. Those missing votes go to **other candidates**. You remember, there were some on the ballots? If we’re awarding electoral votes proportionately, then if Nader got, say, 4% in one state, he gets 4% of the electoral votes. And he gathered as much as 7-10% in some states. See–this is **precisely** what is wrong with winner-take-all. Because I only included the percentages for Gore and Bush, both Navigator and Connor assumed that, in a proportional system, their EV totals should add to 538. Nope– **anybody** getting a percentage of the vote gets a proportion of the EV. The EV totals for each state and the Bush/Gore percentages are there–somebody want to check my math across rows? ---
**Author:** ![pldennison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9fc29f/32.png) [@pldennison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pldennison)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/16 "2000-11-09T21:34:49Z")
OK, here are Nader’s percentages and proportional EV totals. You’ll see that, proportionally, he would get 14.95 electoral votes. 518.32+14.95=533.27. The remaining 4.73 votes are accounted for by the few states where Buchanan and Browne got some percentage points. ```auto EV Nader% Nader EV AK 3 10 0.3 VT 3 7 0.21 HI 4 6 0.24 MA 12 6 0.72 ME 4 6 0.24 MT 3 6 0.18 RI 4 6 0.24 CO 8 5 0.4 DC 3 5 0.15 MN 10 5 0.5 OR 7 5 0.35 UT 5 5 0.25 CA 54 4 2.16 CT 8 4 0.32 NH 4 4 0.16 NM 5 4 0.2 NY 33 4 1.32 WA 11 4 0.44 WI 11 4 0.44 AZ 8 3 0.24 DE 3 3 0.09 KS 6 3 0.18 MD 10 3 0.3 ND 3 3 0.09 NE 5 3 0.15 NJ 15 3 0.45 OH 21 3 0.63 AR 6 2 0.12 FL 25 2 0.5 IA 7 2 0.14 IL 22 2 0.44 KY 8 2 0.16 MI 18 2 0.36 MO 11 2 0.22 NV 4 2 0.08 PA 23 2 0.46 SC 8 2 0.16 TX 32 2 0.64 VA 13 2 0.26 WV 5 2 0.1 AL 9 1 0.09 LA 9 1 0.09 MS 7 1 0.07 TN 11 1 0.11 GA 13 0 0 ID 4 0 0 IN 12 0 0 NC 14 0 0 OK 8 0 0 SD 3 0 0 WY 3 0 0 ----- 14.95 ``` ---
**Author:** ![Freedom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bc8723/32.png) [@Freedom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freedom)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/17 "2000-11-09T21:42:35Z")
To add to the fun, check out this pic of the county by county results: [County Result Picture](http://www.geocities.com/emgrose/images/GIFs/county_map.GIF) This is a pic scanned from USA Today. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2000, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-speculative-exercise/40493/18 "2000-11-09T21:54:33Z")
You da man, **phil** ; thanks. I love it when the libertarians and progressives can agree that the electoral system is royally screwy; it warms my cockles.