# A Thread for the Mueller Investigation Results and Outcomes (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 28, 2017, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093 "2017-10-28T20:14:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/41 "2017-10-29T15:11:47Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > My non-serious pick would be Melania, for plotting to kill moose and squirrel. So stealing this. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/42 "2017-10-29T15:17:11Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes. Thanks for the answer and the correction of the question. That is exactly what I was thinking. > > So, no state charges here. That is not to say that the states can’t start their own investigations if they are so inclined. Except Mueller has been working with NY state grand juries and prosecutors as well. He has been actively pursuing state level charges. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/43 "2017-10-29T15:18:01Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Based on everything in the public record thus far, he’s got no real way to do that. > > Although . . . > > . . . I’ll direct your attention to earlier conversations on this board, in which several commentators asserted confidently that any time a foreign citizen contributed valuable information to a campaign, this was illegal. > > You may remember that I disagreed, saying such a reading of the statute was violative f the First Amendment. > > Now I am hearing reports that the “dossier” was prepared by a foreign citizen and used by the Clinton campaign against Trump. > > I still say that such a use, if it indeed happened, would be perfectly legal and protected by the First Amendment. > > Does anyone who felt it was illegal wish to revisit their analysis? **Bricker** , I’ve not been following this closely, but my impression was that the current allegation is that the Clinton campaign paid the foreigners (i.e, the Brit ex-MI6 guy) to prepare the “Dossier”. If so, that wouldn’t even raise the contribution issue, would it? It’s not a contribution if you’re hired to do a service for a political campaign. But that’s different from the allegation about the Russians offering dirt on Clinton to Donnie Jr in Trump Tower, isn’t it? The allegation is that they contacted Donnie to give the Trump campaign the dirt. If that’s true, that raises the foreign contribution rule in a different way than the allegation of Americans paying foreigners to do oppo research, doesn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/44 "2017-10-29T15:23:04Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > **Bricker** , I’ve not been following this closely, but my impression was that the current allegation is that the Clinton campaign paid the foreigners (i.e, the Brit ex-MI6 guy) to prepare the “Dossier”. > > If so, that wouldn’t even raise the contribution issue, would it? > > But that’s different from the allegation about the Russians offering dirt on Clinton to Donnie Jr in Trump Tower, isn’t it? The allegation is that they contacted Donnie to give them the dirt. > > If that’s true, that raises the foreign contribution rule in a different way than the allegation of Americans paying foreigners to do oppo research, doesn’t it? Sure, I suppose that’s an argument. I guess it would require determining the fair market value of the publicity the dossier gained for the campaign and then ensuring that the payment was on a general par with that value, though – wouldn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![purplehearingaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7bcc69/32.png) [@purplehearingaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/purplehearingaid)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/45 "2017-10-29T16:18:47Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > My prediction: Trump is being indicted. > > Only because if it does happen, I will be able to say “I CALLED IT!” 🙂 I am thinking it could be donald trump jr. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/46 "2017-10-29T16:50:09Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > If I had to guess, it would be Manafort. He seems to be the key figure in this case whose last name doesn’t start with T. While he no doubt deserves a life sentence, the intent is to pressure him to flip and give testimony against a certain orange-skinned cretin. > > My second choice would be Flynn, and it is quite possible that both will be marched into court tomorrow. > > Don Jr. would be awesome if only to watch the Twitter meltdown that would ensue. Maanfort is high on the list, but people seem to be forgetting Kushner. I think JK is very vulnerable. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/47 "2017-10-29T17:07:44Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Maanfort is high on the list, but people seem to be forgetting Kushner. I think JK is very vulnerable. You lock him up, then who’s going to reinvent government, bring peace to the middle east, and solve the opioid crisis? The guy’s irreplaceable. I think Mueller is going to work his way around the circle, starting at the periphery and slowly working his way in. JK is way too close to the center to be the first one brought in. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/48 "2017-10-29T17:11:44Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > You lock him up, then who’s going to reinvent government, bring peace to the middle east, and solve the opioid crisis? The guy’s irreplaceable. > > I think Mueller is going to work his way around the circle, starting at the periphery and slowly working his way in. JK is way too close to the center to be the first one brought in. We’re all speculating at this point, so I won’t argue with you. You could very well be right. Question: Are we waiting for Monday to find out what the indictments are? If so, what is so magical about Monday? Why couldn’t this be released on Friday? ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/49 "2017-10-29T17:16:02Z")
In thinking about it more, I’m guessing it will be either Manafort, or someone even lower on the ladder that we’ve likely never heard of. It’s been pointed out that Manafort is actually a fairly large fish. If Mueller is operating on the “little fish first” method, then Manafort would come later. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/50 "2017-10-29T17:18:36Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Maanfort is high on the list, but people seem to be forgetting Kushner. I think JK is very vulnerable. Mueller’s not going to touch Kushner now - absolutely not. If he does that, the investigation ends. It’ll probably be Manafort for conduct that predated the campaign. This would be a legit prosecution and might give Trump a false sense of security - he can also pardon him if he wants and wouldn’t be surprised if he did. I am beginning to doubt that Mueller will see the end of the investigation. Mueller will go one direction; Sessions will go another. More than ever, it’s clear that there is a low-grade civil war brewing between the parties. Republicans will defend their guy to the end. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/51 "2017-10-29T17:21:33Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Sure, I suppose that’s an argument. I guess it would require determining the fair market value of the publicity the dossier gained for the campaign and then ensuring that the payment was on a general par with that value, though – wouldn’t it? That would be an odd way of doing it. The determination of whether something is an arms-length commercial transaction does not ordinarily require that the value to the buyer equal the price. If it did, almost nothing would meet that test, since most people try to get something that is worth more than what they paid for it. To use that test in the context of valuing publicity would be even more bizarre, since it is largely unforeseeable and worth nothing to the seller. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/52 "2017-10-29T17:22:11Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Sure, I suppose that’s an argument. I guess it would require determining the fair market value of the publicity the dossier gained for the campaign and then ensuring that the payment was on a general par with that value, though – wouldn’t it? That’s not just “an argument,” that’s the fundamental difference. If you pay me to do work for you, I’m not giving you a gift. If I do work for you for free, then I’m giving you a gift. Completely different situation. As for the value, why would the payment be dependent on the value of publicity? I would think an investigator would get paid based on hours spent on the task. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/53 "2017-10-29T17:23:42Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Mueller’s not going to touch Kushner now - absolutely not. If he does that, the investigation ends. Why does it end? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/54 "2017-10-29T17:26:24Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Why does it end? Because Trump and his supporters in congress will end it. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/55 "2017-10-29T17:27:45Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Because Trump and his supporters in congress will end it. Why? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/56 "2017-10-29T17:29:30Z")
**Fiveyearlurker** said it earlier but I’ll say it again… Felix Sater. 1. He is up to so much shady shit that it’s just not too hard to find a crime when you look closely at his activities. 2. He has a history of helping out the feds to avoid prosecution. 3. A couple of months ago he was telling people that he was probably going to jail over Trump/Russia stuff. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/57 "2017-10-29T17:32:01Z")
> [@](#): > > “Because Trump and his supporters in congress will end it.” > > “Why?” Because Trump fires Mueller at that point? Publicly bewailing assaults on his family. I mean, attacking somebody’s _family_, have they no _decency_! It’ll sell. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/58 "2017-10-29T18:26:35Z")
More and more, I think it will be someone big enough and close enough to the facts to rattle Trump, but not someone fundamental to the investigation. So not Kushner, not Ivanka, not Flynn Sr., not Roger Stone, not Carter Page, not Mike Pence, not Michael Cohen, not Felix Sater. I do think Mueller is hoping to provoke a response, learn Trump’s “strategy,” if Trump will actually fire him and if he does, what the Congressional response will be. If the leak did originate from Mueller’s office, then I think it was strategic to leak it on the eve of another golf weekend in Virginia and gauge how bad it spooked Trump. (Happy Halloween!) As noted in other threads, considerably, it would appear. (“DO SOMETHING!”) Donald Jr. is a good guess as offered by **purplehearingaid** , but was Jr. in fact formally affiliated with the Trump campaign? His role in organizing the Veselnitskaya meeting was pivotal, but he’s not the only person who could provide testimony about it. Still he might be exactly the sacrificial lamb Mueller wants if he was in fact a member of the campaign. Mueller will keep politics out of it – but he will also be very strategic. I don’t think the investigation ends even if Trump fires Mueller. First, Trump can’t fire Mueller. He has to find someone to do it. I don’t think Rosenstein will do it. Trump can fire Rosenstein, but it’s another obstruction charge if he does. If he goes down the chain a la Bork, sure, he’ll find someone to fire Mueller. But every Congressperson I’ve heard speak on the issue – including every Republican – has indicated that impeachment proceedings would begin tout suite if that happens. Alternatively, Congress could simply reauthorize Mueller under new, fire-proof authority. I don’t believe Congress is entirely in the bag for Trump. I remember the numbers from their vote on sanctions against Russia: Practically unanimous. They are all very aware of Russian interference in our election. A lot of them would be happier with a President Pence or President Ryan when all is said and done. They just don’t want to be the ones to instigate impeachment. (Cowards.) And then let the prosecutions unfold. If Trump supporters are going to rise up, let them. It’s going to happen sooner or later if it’s going to happen at all. Let’s get on with it. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/59 "2017-10-29T18:34:02Z")
On Predictit, on the question, “Will a federal criminal charge be filed against Roger Stone in 2017”, the “Yes” position went up 32 cents today. Not sure how much stock to put in that. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/60 "2017-10-29T18:40:40Z")
Admittedly, I’m not an expert on witness flipping, but wouldn’t bringing in more than one person at the same time encourage cooperation? Best deal goes to the first to talk? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093.md?page=4)