# A Thread for the Mueller Investigation Results and Outcomes (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 28, 2017, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093 "2017-10-28T20:14:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/61 "2017-10-29T18:50:01Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Admittedly, I’m not an expert on witness flipping, but wouldn’t bringing in more than one person at the same time encourage cooperation? Best deal goes to the first to talk? Their attorneys have most likely been negotiating for such a deal for some time now. They know who is going to get indicted. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/62 "2017-10-29T20:14:52Z")
Sater or Flynn Jr. The indictment is supposedly sealed until Monday so that the indictees can be picked up on Monday. My question is, why can’t this guy/these guys be picked up over the weekend? What’s the deal on that? Why must they wait until ‘regular business hours’? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/63 "2017-10-29T20:21:07Z")
Maybe they just wanted a weekend off before the trajectory of the shit intersects the locus of the fan. At least for a couple of days, they can legit refuse to talk about it, come Monday that gets shot to blazes. They’ll be lucky if they can stop talking long enough to chew. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/64 "2017-10-29T20:28:07Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Sater or Flynn Jr. > > The indictment is supposedly sealed until Monday so that the indictees can be picked up on Monday. > > My question is, why can’t this guy/these guys be picked up over the weekend? What’s the deal on that? Why must they wait until ‘regular business hours’? They needn’t. They could execute their arrest at any time/date of their choosing. But according to my recent understanding, there are strategic reasons other than surprise to seal an indictment ahead of an arrest. In some cases it can be a courtesy to the defendant, allowing them the dignity of putting their affairs in order and to avoid The Perp Walk. It might be because they are not yet ready to arrest, but they needed to indict based on statute of limitations concerns. It might also be to do exactly what it appears to be doing: Stress some of the potential targets into cooperating and/or showing their hand(s). ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/65 "2017-10-29T20:31:42Z")
But I agree that Flynn is the most likely. Reasoning that building a case that Trump interfered with Comey is strengthened by a strong and public case against Flynn. If Flynn is found guilty and/or cops a plea, the situation solidifies, he actually is guilty of something, and an effort to deter that outcome becomes more clearly wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/66 "2017-10-29T20:56:19Z")
I’m going with Manafort, and if it can be proven that Manafort colluded with Russia, then the whole campaign colluded with Russia. There was no reason to hire Manafort as campaign manager except to collude with Russia. What rational reason was there for him to manage a presidential campaign? His access to Russian money was his only selling point. And, remember on the day he left the campaign, Trump associated businesses “[loaned](http://www.newsweek.com/paul-manafort-got-13-million-loans-trump-tied-businesses-583557)” him 13 million dollars. “In September, Summerbreeze received a $3.5 million loan from Spruce Capital. The investment firm’s co-founder Joshua Crane helped develop Trump International Hotel & Tower in Honolulu, Hawaii, in 2006. Then, in November, the firm secured a $9.5 million loan from the Federal Savings Bank of Chicago, founded and chaired by Stephen M. Calk, a senior economic adviser to Trump during his campaign. The bank usually specializes in loans to help military veterans buy homes.” ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/67 "2017-10-29T21:08:25Z")
I’m going out on a limb here and say it is Monday for the simple reason of that’s when the courts are open. Having Flynn/Manafort/??? sit the entire weekend in jail does nothing to help Mueller and makes a Friday night arrest look vengeful, especially in a case _this_ public. Monday, you can be arrested, met at courthouse by your attorney, and begin the process of being arraigned and posting bail ASAP, with a minimum of jail time. I would also like to say the likelihood of nothing happening Monday is higher than many give credence. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/68 "2017-10-29T21:09:18Z")
it’s like Christmas eve and looking at all those presents under the tree trying to guess what’s inside. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/69 "2017-10-29T21:12:26Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > But I agree that Flynn is the most likely. Best Facebook idea: If you want to be a prick, go to Flynn’s house at 6 AM Monday and pound on his door. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/70 "2017-10-29T21:21:16Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > **Fiveyearlurker** said it earlier but I’ll say it again… > > Felix Sater. > > 1. He is up to so much shady shit that it’s just not too hard to find a crime when you look closely at his activities. > 2. He has a history of helping out the feds to avoid prosecution. > 3. A couple of months ago he was telling people that he was probably going to jail over Trump/Russia stuff. Good guess, but I think it likely that old Felix has flipped already. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/71 "2017-10-29T21:48:54Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Sure, I suppose that’s an argument. I guess it would require determining the fair market value of the publicity the dossier gained for the campaign and then ensuring that the payment was on a general par with that value, though – wouldn’t it? If someone’s in the job of doing investigations, with a regular fee (“$100 a day, plus expenses”), what does it matter what the benefit of the material dug up is? If someone hires a detective and they come up with nothing, but get the paid the same as if they hand over a silver bullet, where’s the contribution? They’re getting paid for their services. How valuable, politically, their product may be, isn’t really relevant, I would have thought. They got hired, they did the job, they get paid, and they move on to the next job. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/72 "2017-10-29T21:58:58Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > If someone’s in the job of doing investigations, with a regular fee (“$100 a day, plus expenses”), what does it matter what the benefit of the material dug up is? If someone hires a detective and they come up with nothing, but get the paid the same as if they hand over a silver bullet, where’s the contribution? They’re getting paid for their services. How valuable, politically, their product may be, isn’t really relevant, I would have thought. They got hired, they did the job, they get paid, and they move on to the next job. Yeah, makes sense – I was picturing more the argument that the only investigations work the subject did was for the campaign, as opposed to having a regular gig. I agree if he’s doing similar work for similar clients, then he’s safe. Of course, I think he’s safe anyway based on the First Amendment argument. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/73 "2017-10-29T22:27:02Z")
So if the next time I’m travelling in the States, I attend a political conference, and overwhelmed by the oratory, I make a contribution to the candidate, you’ll come defend me, right? ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/74 "2017-10-29T23:22:28Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I would also like to say the likelihood of nothing happening Monday is higher than many give credence. [Schiff has just said](http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-grand-jury-20171029-story.html)that _someone_ “is ‘likely’ to face indictment as early as [tomorrow],” either Manafort or Flynn, for what it’s worth. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2017, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/75 "2017-10-29T23:24:15Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > [Schiff has just said](http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-grand-jury-20171029-story.html)that _someone_ “is ‘likely’ to face indictment as early as [tomorrow]” – for what it’s worth. From that link (bold added): > [@](#): > > Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Burbank), ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, said a federal judge could unseal an indictment against either **Paul Manafort** , Trump’s former campaign manager, or **Michael Flynn** , who briefly served as Trump’s national security advisor in the White House. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2017, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/76 "2017-10-30T02:44:45Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes. Thanks for the answer and the correction of the question. That is exactly what I was thinking. > > So, no state charges here. That is not to say that the states can’t start their own investigations if they are so inclined. The New York attorney general Eric Schneiderman is conducting a parallel investigation into Trump and his associates because a lot of Trump’s properties and financial transactions occurred in NY state. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2017, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/77 "2017-10-30T03:07:27Z")
I’m going to go with Manafort. He’s been under investigation for years, even before he joined Trump’s team. He was hired by Trump BECAUSE of his collusion with the Russians. As for Flynn? I think he’s singing like a little bird already, and won’t be charged, as long as he cooperates. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2017, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/78 "2017-10-30T05:05:12Z")
I think you start at the perimeter and work your way in. Mueller obviously needs to avoid going too high, too early and not having his ducks in a row. Call me cynical, but maybe the power brokers (if such a thing truly exists) will get their shit together. If there is enough provable evidence against Trump and family, a deal just might happen for a medical “retirement” in exchange for keeping his family out of jail. And maybe in such a fantasy, Pence is also an indictable target, and we end up with a deal that puts President Ryan in the White House. I’m not saying this is a great scenario, and would love to see The Donald and Family get their just deserts (if the case is proven in a court of law). On the other hand, taking his finger off the button and passing the torch to someone I loathe like Ryan as a placeholder until 2020, is a deal that I could grudgingly swallow. Even better if power brokers agree the next supreme nomination is Garland. Dunno about this hypothetical but versus the risk of the Trumpster going completely off the deep end and his 30% incited to arms… ---
**Author:** ![Fubaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/c2a13f/32.png) [@Fubaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fubaya)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2017, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/79 "2017-10-30T11:58:13Z")
It’s breaking that Manafort has been told to surrender to the feds. Edit: and his business partner Rick Gates ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2017, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093/80 "2017-10-30T12:02:49Z")
It’s Manafort and Rick Gates [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-thread-for-the-mueller-investigation-results-and-outcomes-part-1/800093.md?page=5)