# A time traveller couldn't win the lottery, right? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [July 28, 2016, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079 "2016-07-28T01:26:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/41 "2016-07-28T22:28:29Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Why get so greedy? One big win would be enough, wouldn’t it? And it wouldn’t be suspicious! Why keep pressing your luck? Most bookies couldn’t really cover a multiple hundred millions win could they? Plus you need like some serious capital to even make a bet that big. ---
**Author:** ![Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skald_the_Rhymer)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/42 "2016-07-28T22:55:05Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > This is not necessarily true. I can bet $1 million on Denver who is giving up 3 points to Carolina. There are no odds involved. Do people makes sports bets on that scale? Will it not seem suspicious? Stick to the lottery. It’s the safest physically, because it’s expected (indeed, hoped for) that there will be big payouts on a regular basis. You just have to act in accorance with teh self-consistency principle, because there are no paradoxes. If you try to buy a ticket for a drawing which your time-travel exploits told you that nobody won, or that a person other than you won, then something will happen to prevent you from winning. That may well be being hit by a bus while on the way to the store, or the store being held up while you’re there and you being shot, or so on. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/43 "2016-07-28T23:10:23Z")
> [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](#): > > You can’t do it in one bit win, because in sports betting, the amount placed on one team or other changes the odds. > [@Slash1972](#): > > This is not necessarily true. I can bet $1 million on Denver who is giving up 3 points to Carolina. There are no odds involved. It doesn’t really matter if it’s an odds market or a line. The question is what the liquidity is like. A large enough amount of money will move the market, be that changing the odds or moving the line from 3 points to 4 or 5 points. The two-way volume in the US football market is so large, and the handicappers are generally so astute at judging the initial line to balance that flow, that _in practice_ you rarely see the line move more than a point or two. > [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](#): > > Do people makes sports bets on that scale? Will it not seem suspicious? People bet astonishing amounts. You could stake millions on major sporting events without moving the market significantly. Hundreds of millions, not so much. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/44 "2016-07-29T01:10:14Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > It doesn’t really matter if it’s an odds market or a line. The question is what the liquidity is like. A large enough amount of money will move the market, be that changing the odds or moving the line from 3 points to 4 or 5 points. The two-way volume in the US football market is so large, and the handicappers are generally so astute at judging the initial line to balance that flow, that _in practice_ you rarely see the line move more than a point or two. True, but if I place a bet for $1 million on Denver at -3, that’s the bet I have. It doesn’t matter what the line moves to after that, I have -3 as my bet. And yes, people bet that much. There was a famous one not too long ago, but I can’t find it for some reason. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/45 "2016-07-29T01:12:55Z")
Sports betting based on time travel is actually covered in a series called “Odyssey” I think the name was. After they went back 5 years, a guy placed a big bet on a football game that was decided by a field goal, because he knew the kicker made it and won the game. However, after they traveled back in time, the kicker ended up missing the field goal. I think they chalked it up to so much publicity about the bet that the kicker got nervous or something and ended up missing it. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/46 "2016-07-29T01:15:33Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Without looping: ordinary non-time-traveling people were around hundreds of years ago, and they did invest money, and their modern descendants are not all magically rich. _That_ doesn’t work. Do you know of any families that left money in an account 100 years ago, and then NEVER touched it? > [@](#): > > Even with looping, you need to give it more thought than you have just done. You need to take your money back in cash. There are no banknotes that are valid both today and 50 years ago, so you need to shorten the loop to about 10 years or so. And cash transactions over $10k must be declared. You can’t account for the cash so you are likely to be busted as a money launderer. This is hard to circumvent. You’re basically in the same position as a drug dealer. Yeah, if I had a time machine, I’m pretty sure I would put more thought into it than just a few minutes on a message board :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/47 "2016-07-29T01:33:31Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > True, but if I place a bet for $1 million on Denver at -3, that’s the bet I have. It doesn’t matter what the line moves to after that, I have -3 as my bet. You claimed a difference in the concept of “moving the market” (i.e. liquidity) between odds markets and line markets. There’s no difference. The moot point when considering liquidity is whether somebody is willing to _take_ the million dollar bet at the same line or the same odds that they will take a $1000 bet. Bookies are under no obligation to take arbitrarily large bets at their current line, any more than they are obliged to take arbitrarily large bets at their current odds. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/48 "2016-07-29T01:40:04Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > You claimed a difference in the concept of “moving the market” (i.e. liquidity) between odds markets and line markets. There’s no difference. > > The moot point when considering liquidity is whether somebody is willing to _take_ the million dollar bet at the same line or the same odds that they will take a $1000 bet. Bookies are under no obligation to take arbitrarily large bets at their current line, any more than they are obliged to take arbitrarily large bets at their current odds. I claimed nothing. I DO claim, however, that if the Vegas line is -3, and you go to a sports book in Vegas to make a $1 million bet, they will give you the bet at -3. They won’t change it for YOU based on the amount that you bet. They may change the line AFTERWARD, but not for YOUR bet. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/49 "2016-07-29T01:42:39Z")
This is really easy peasy. Make a few sports bets. Use those funds to buy the right stocks at the right times. Buy Reseda in the 1930s. If you only have a few thousand, go back to 1975 and offer Steve Jobs a better deal than Mike Markkula did. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/50 "2016-07-29T01:46:56Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Do you know of any families that left money in an account 100 years ago, and then NEVER touched it? No. But it’s not a logical consequence that leaving an account untouched for 100 years is _better_ and will make you rich. In fact, I’ve laid out several reasons why that _won’t_ work. Why not address those points directly if you disagree? > [@Slash1972](#): > > Yeah, if I had a time machine, I’m pretty sure I would put more thought into it than just a few minutes on a message board :rolleyes: So your counterargument is that if this were important you’d obviously _have_ a counterargument. My point is that it’s _non-trivial_ to use a time machine to get rich by just using the time value of money. It’s far more complicated than going back in time, putting money in the bank, and cashing in your fortune later. There are very tricky practical problems that arise, none of which are usually addressed in the common sci-fi trope, or by you here. As I said a while back, the simplest and most anonymous plan to get rich in a single iteration is to buy a few thousand dollars worth of gold, go back to the Microsoft IPO, and use the gold to buy Microsoft stock - i.e. to use insider information in an undetectable way. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/51 "2016-07-29T01:50:39Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > So your counterargument is that if this were important you’d obviously _have_ a counterargument. I guess. My counterargument is if this were important (possible) I would think more about it instead of just spit balling ideas on a message board for everyone to read > [@](#): > > As I said a while back, the simplest and most anonymous plan to get rich in a single iteration is to buy a few thousand dollars worth of gold, go back to the Microsoft IPO, and use the gold to buy Microsoft stock - i.e. to use insider information in an undetectable way. I agree with this. But isn’t this using time travel to get rich? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/52 "2016-07-29T01:51:09Z")
It all depends on how the universe works, if time travel is possible. Is the universe self-consistent? If it is, you can’t change the past. Anything you do in the past already happened, and has always been part of the past. So if you go back in time and kill your grandfather, that’s something that has always happened. If you want to go back in time and bet on lottery numbers, check the pictures in the paper. If the picture isn’t of you, you won’t be able to win that lottery. Can you change the past? If you can, then your changes to the past will wipe out the information needed to cash in. If you go back in time to kill Hitler, you can’t be sure your investment in IBM will pay off, because in the different world created by having no Hitler everything will develop differently. And I agree that going back 1000 years and putting $1 in a bank and letting compound interest make you a trillionaire won’t work. Financial institutions and countries don’t last that long, and funds sitting around untended get appropriated by the powers that be, banks get looted. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/53 "2016-07-29T01:52:11Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > I claimed nothing. I DO claim, however, that if the Vegas line is -3, and you go to a sports book in Vegas to make a $1 million bet, they will give you the bet at -3. They won’t change it for YOU based on the amount that you bet. They may change the line AFTERWARD, but not for YOUR bet. Your prior claim was [my bold]: > [@Slash1972](#): > > This is not necessarily true. I can bet $1 million on Denver who is giving up 3 points to Carolina. **There are no odds involved.** The reason that you the bookies will take that line bet at -3 is because you have identified a liquid high-volume market, not because it’s a line market rather than an odds market. There are plenty of equally liquid odds markets, and plenty of _illiquid_ line markets. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/54 "2016-07-29T01:55:46Z")
[According to this link](http://amigobulls.com/articles/the-oldest-stocks-trading-on-nyse) If you went back in time and bought just 1 share of Coca Cola, you could cash out in 2012 for almost $360,000. So, just buy 1000 shares in 1919 and you are set. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/55 "2016-07-29T01:57:54Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > I agree with this. But isn’t this using time travel to get rich? Sure, but if you read the whole thread, the discussion arose in consideration of the SF trope of going way back in time, putting a few bucks in the bank, then passively collecting your trillions of accrued interest a few hundred years later. I was challenging that trope, and pointing out that it just doesn’t work. It’s not simple to just passively capture the time value of money or ultra-long-term appreciation of assets, even with a time machine. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/56 "2016-07-29T01:59:23Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Your prior claim was [my bold]: > > The reason that you the bookies will take that line bet at -3 is because you have identified a liquid high-volume market, not because it’s a line market rather than an odds market. There are plenty of equally liquid odds markets, and plenty of _illiquid_ line markets. This makes no sense. My claim was I could pick Denver -3, and bet $1 million. My bet would be Denver to win by more than 3. There are no odds, liquidity, or whatever else you might just make up. My bet is “If Denver wins by 3, I tie. If Denver wins by 4 or more, I win $1 million” “If Denver loses, or doesn’t win by at least 3, I lose” The amount of my bet changes nothing FOR ME. I have a bet of Denver -3. The line changes or odds or liquidity or whatever has NOTHING to do with me. I have a bet of $1 million on Denver -3. ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/57 "2016-07-29T02:40:27Z")
It may be that a time-traveler cannot improve his odds of winning a lottery, but if a time traveler walked into the convenience store and bought a powerball ticket, his chances would be just as good as mine. The interesting question then, is, if he wins a billion dollars, how strong would the temptation be to not return to his chronological origin, and stay here to enjoy his wealth. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/58 "2016-07-29T03:20:33Z")
The best way to make money with very little investment or attention is to find out when a stock will crash,then go back and short sell it. Or buy land in the back waters of Manhattan Island, though you’d need to set up a trust to pay the real estate taxes on it. Go back and join one of the old Shaker colonies right before they collapsed. The last living member got all the land and wealth, which was often substantial. Buy memorabilia. Get the Beatles to sign their first album for you. Who ever said rare stamps is on to a winner, but you’d have to hid it somewhere and then go find it. Otherwise the verification won’t come out right - the paper will be too new. Learn how to make amazing furniture and then “discover” a new piece by this amazing carpenter every ten years or so.(This one is stolen from “New Amsterdam” a TV show that should have lived.) ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/59 "2016-07-29T03:38:32Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > This makes no sense. My claim was I could pick Denver -3, and bet $1 million. My bet would be Denver to win by more than 3. There are no odds, liquidity, or whatever else you might just make up. My bet is “If Denver wins by 3, I tie. If Denver wins by 4 or more, I win $1 million” “If Denver loses, or doesn’t win by at least 3, I lose” > > The amount of my bet changes nothing FOR ME. I have a bet of Denver -3. The line changes or odds or liquidity or whatever has NOTHING to do with me. I have a bet of $1 million on Denver -3. You don’t understand what “liquidity” means. It means, when you want to execute a large transaction (in the financial markets or when betting), is somebody willing to take the other side of the transaction at or near the current price (a liquid market), or will you have accept a significantly worse price for that size (an illiquid market). You have successfully identified a liquid market (NFL game), but line markets are not _intrinsically_ more liquid than odds markets. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/60 "2016-07-29T03:58:28Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > The best way to make money with very little investment or attention is to find out when a stock will crash,then go back and short sell it. The big advantage of shorting is that stocks can go down much faster than they usually go up, but: Shorting requires a large investment relative to your return. You generally have to post a large proportion of the stock price when you short, and a stock can only go down 100%. It is highly likely to attract attention. Stock collapses are prime targets for insider trading, so the SEC will be on the look-out for anyone who put out a big short just before, and check them out. It’s hard to short anonymously, because you have to borrow the stock (a broker can borrow it for you, but the broker can’t open an anonymous account). Shorting futures before a general market crash avoids these problems, retaining the advantage of a quick payoff, if that’s important. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079.md?page=4)