# A time traveller couldn't win the lottery, right? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [July 28, 2016, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079 "2016-07-28T01:26:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/61 "2016-07-29T04:26:38Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > …If you go back in time to kill Hitler… Don’t even _think_ about it: [Wikihistory - Reactor](http://www.tor.com/2011/08/31/wikihistory/) ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/62 "2016-07-29T05:16:20Z")
There are some opportunities to make SERIOUS money by buying things that are now collectibles. For instance, go back to 1993 Gencon and offer a bunch of people $5 each for some of their cards from the brand new game Magic: The Gathering. Granted, if you buy TOO many you risk destroying the delicate alchemy that made Magic take off in the first place, because that many fewer people will have cards to play with. But you could turn $500 into $100,000 or more without even trying. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/63 "2016-07-29T10:14:12Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Do you know of any families that left money in an account 100 years ago, and then NEVER touched it? We recently were notified by our bank about an inactive account. Some (Homeland Security?) law required me to “use it or lose it”. I went in and withdrew twenty dollars. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/64 "2016-07-29T13:01:18Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > You don’t understand what “liquidity” means. It means, when you want to execute a large transaction (in the financial markets or when betting), is somebody willing to take the other side of the transaction at or near the current price (a liquid market), or will you have accept a significantly worse price for that size (an illiquid market). > > You have successfully identified a liquid market (NFL game), but line markets are not _intrinsically_ more liquid than odds markets. I suspect you don’t understand how sports betting works at a legal sports book. It has nothing to do with liquidity. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/65 "2016-07-29T13:02:21Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > We recently were notified by our bank about an inactive account. Some (Homeland Security?) law required me to “use it or lose it”. I went in and withdrew twenty dollars. Wow! Was it there for 100 years? ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/66 "2016-07-29T13:39:47Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Wow! Was it there for 100 years? No, just six. And WTF? I went looking for a Homeland Security/Patriot Act cite and can’t find one. The bank teller was apparently full of shit?! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/67 "2016-07-29T14:58:46Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > This would be a fascinating hypothetical, actually. Suppose that someone accurately predicts the outcome of every single NCAAF, NBA, MLB, NHL, Premier League, NFL, etc. game. Hundreds of games. > People would believe that _every single one of these sports teams - every single one_ - is in on a massive gambling collusion scheme and that it’s all rigged. Well, the idea is to hide your activities. As it happens, I know who’s won the World Series every year it has ever been played. Assuming my own activities do not cause a butterfly effect that alters that timeline - which they might, but for fun let’s pretend they don’t - obviously I could get insanely rich in time by betting on World Series winners prior to the commencement of the season (when you get great odds, even on good teams.) Okay, let’s say I jump back 30 years to the start of the 1986 season and I can scrounge up $2500 in authentic 1986 money somehow. I dunno how, work with me. I place $2500 on the Mets to win it all at 10 to 1. In October I collect $25000. No one will notice that. The following year I put down $5000 on the Twins at 50 to 1. I win… $250,000. Someone will sure as hell notice THAT, but people get lucky, what the hell. In 1988, the Dodgers are going to win the World Series. I could probably get 20 to 1. But man, when I collect a pile of money someone will notice I was the guy who picked the Twins. I don’t want that kind of scrutiny. How to hide it? 1. Place your bets all over town. If I won $250,000 on the Twins in '87 at the Mirage I would be stupid to put all my action at the Mirage the next year. I should spread it around. 2. Lose on purpose. This is key. Don’t just bet $20,000 on Los Angeles to win it all. Bet $20,000 on four teams people liked going into 1988 - say, the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Mets. Make sure two losing bets are at the Mirage. You’ll lose three big bets but your profit on the fourth makes up for it and then some. 3. Maybe just blow a whole year to look fallible. When the time comes, don’t bet on the Twins in 1991 or the Marlins in 1997. Gosh, who knew, huh? That’s okay, you made enough from everything else. ---
**Author:** ![GuanoLad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guanolad/32/42_2.png) [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/68 "2016-07-29T15:01:44Z")
If you subscribe to the single timeline theory, you won’t change anything, as you always were the winner, you just didn’t know it was you until after you’ve time-travelled. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/69 "2016-07-29T17:14:24Z")
**RickJay** , Jake takes some of those very precautions in _11/22/63_ but to no avail. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/70 "2016-07-29T18:46:06Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > The time-travel trope of just investing a few bucks and then coming back decades or centuries later to cash in is based on misconceptions about the time value of money, and naivete about the long-term stability and riskiness of _anything_. I’ll take that bet. I have access to MorningstarPro. Let’s look at a few. For legal reasons I can’t give ticker symbols. All using initial investment of $100K with dividends and interest reinvested and paying maximum load: S&P Index Fund: $1.41MM (since 1988) Moderate G&I Mutual Fund: $962.34MM (since 1934) Tax-Free High Income Muni Bond Fund: $765K (since 1984) ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/71 "2016-07-29T18:47:54Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > No, just six. > > And WTF? I went looking for a Homeland Security/Patriot Act cite and can’t find one. The bank teller was apparently full of shit?! No. I don’t think it’s Patriot Act but inactive accounts below a certain level are allowed to be claimed by the financial institution because the cost of finding you or escheatment exceeds the value of the account. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/72 "2016-07-29T19:30:00Z")
> [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](#): > > Of course a time traveler could win the lottery. The key is to get just the right information: only the winning numbers, not the idenity of thewinner. If you get the identity of the winner, and that winner is not you, you create a situation in which you are guaranteed not to buy the winning ticket. That could mean that every store you go to ill be out of tickets, but more likely it means you’ll be hit by a bus on your way to the store. No, you learn the ID of the winner, but then kill that person and take over the identity long enough to collect the winnings. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/73 "2016-07-29T19:34:04Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > No. I don’t think it’s Patriot Act but inactive accounts below a certain level are allowed to be claimed by the financial institution because the cost of finding you or escheatment exceeds the value of the account. Yep. I’ve spent a few hours looking around this morning and it turns out the teller didn’t know what she was talking about. It’s just my bank’s policy. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/74 "2016-07-29T19:57:29Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > It is highly likely to attract attention. Stock collapses are prime targets for insider trading, so the SEC will be on the look-out for anyone who put out a big short just before, and check them out. It’s hard to short anonymously, because you have to borrow the stock (a broker can borrow it for you, but the broker can’t open an anonymous account). > > Shorting futures before a general market crash avoids these problems, retaining the advantage of a quick payoff, if that’s important. That attention will quickly subside unless the SEC employee tasked with the investigation is willing to commit career suicide and take the position that you are a time traveler, as there likely won’t be evidence of any plausible (to them) type of wrongdoing. Slight hijack, but would obtaining info via time travel be considered insider trading? Among other things, my understanding is that insider trading requires a fiduciary duty owed to the target company’s other shareholders by the party who makes the trades, which I don’t see. I agree that investing in index options to profit from events affecting the broader markets would be the way to go, however. Imagine how much you could have made from the nearly 1000 point drop in the DJIA after the Brexit vote, followed by the 1500 point rebound over the next few weeks. Plus, as long as you remembered not to talk about Pokemon Go or Tim Kaine you could easily assimilate into your June 2016 self without anyone suspecting you were a time traveler. ---
**Author:** ![Don\_t\_Panic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/don_t_panic/32/398_2.png) [@Don\_t\_Panic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Don_t_Panic)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/75 "2016-07-29T20:00:24Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > No, you learn the ID of the winner, but then kill that person and take over the identity long enough to collect the winnings. You know, with a couple of extra tweaks, this plan might work even without time travel. … BRB. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/76 "2016-07-29T20:09:40Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > Slight hijack, but would obtaining info via time travel be considered insider trading? Among other things, my understanding is that insider trading requires a fiduciary duty owed to the target company’s other shareholders by the party who makes the trades, which I don’t see. Honestly, reviewing things? I don’t think so. Here’s the info I have here: Illegal insider trading: 1. Buying or selling a security while in possession of Material Nonpublic Information (MNPI) 2. MNPI is information that could reasonably be assumed to impact a security’s price when it becomes public I think that knowing it due to time travel might not meet that requirement. The knowledge itself isn’t likely to affect the security’s price…maybe? ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/77 "2016-07-29T20:39:53Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I think that knowing it due to time travel might not meet that requirement. The knowledge itself isn’t likely to affect the security’s price…maybe? Of course, if we had _widespread_ time travel, asset prices would soon stop moving altogether. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/78 "2016-07-29T21:08:59Z")
Hellooooo commodities. Time travel only has value as it maintains its scarcity. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2016, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/79 "2016-07-29T23:21:08Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > I don’t know the details of the SF story, but a strategy is just depositing money to earn interest doesn’t work to create wealth, even over the really long term. Interest rates lag inflation, and over the extreme long term wealth is always destroyed periodically by some financial entities or entire financial systems going bust. Perhaps in the story that’s the “useful hints about the future financial market” that you mention? One dollar earning 3 percent compounded continuously over 1000 years gives you 7 trillion dollars, and since it’s clear that the money people really had 1000 years ago did not grow 7-trillion-fold, nor will the money of a hypothetical time traveler if it’s just left in a bank passively. As Malthus could tell you - such growth is unsustainable, wealth must be destroyed. So the time traveler needs to be exploiting inside info about the financial markets to get rich - which he could do by going back just a few decades. As Lazarus Long said “A hundred dollars put into a savings account at 6% for 200 years will be worth two million, which, by then, will be worthless” When Ben Franklin willed a thousand pounds each to the cities of Boston and Philadelphia, under the condition that most of it remain invested for 200 years, the people who invested that money managed to beat inflation (but they didn’t just leave the money in a bank). In “Compounded Interest” the main character also used his knowledge to decide which speculative endeavors (and all banks at the time he started were speculative endeavors) were going to be the winners of history - he didn’t just rely on a passive savings account either. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079/80 "2016-08-02T02:15:10Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > **RickJay** , Jake takes some of those very precautions in _11/22/63_ but to no avail. Well, 1. Jake’s bets are in some cases preposterously risky. He acts very stupidly. When he bets in the 1958 World Series he not only bets on the underdog, but bets specifically that they will come back from a 3-1 deficit before the Series even starts, something only done once before, ever, at the time. That is… well, your bookie will find that quite an amazing thing. 2. Jake is betting in a time and place where you could only place large bets with large, dangerous men working outside the law. He did not have the advantage that the huge legal gambling industry today confers upon the gambler who chooses to remain anonymous. 3. In 11/22/63, time is a conscious force that fights a person intending to change it, and Jake intends to change it rather dramatically. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-time-traveller-couldnt-win-the-lottery-right/761079.md?page=5)