# A tipping point. Historians will write on this in 20 years **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 21, 2025, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210 "2025-01-21T13:06:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/61 "2025-01-23T15:17:48Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > ”hey, this fascism thing might not be so bad after all” IMHO it began with Reagan when he said something like ‘If we really believe in conservatism then we should act on it’. ---
**Author:** ![veryfrank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/87869e/32.png) [@veryfrank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/veryfrank)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/62 "2025-01-23T15:53:05Z")
> [@survinga](#): > > For Canada, the short-term risk is an economic trade war, set up by Trump’s stupidity. > > I do think in the long-term though, if fascism is allowed to fully consolidate its power in the US, then Canada’s risk of an actual military confrontation goes up. This won’t happen under Trump, IMO. I could see it happening in future decades, if the US fully normalizes fascism. Not sure if it’s a positive or negative (for our relations with the U.S.) that our next P.M. is going to be a Trump-emulating, shrink-the-state, culture warrior. I genuinely have no idea how things are going to play out here, if he’s going to try and placate the U.S. by acquiescing to all the demands (and if we cave on tariffs, you know there’ll be a new list). ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/63 "2025-01-23T16:54:56Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > The way I see it (and the way I saw it during the time period in question), things were still getting better from 2000 through, let’s say Brexit, to take one example of a clearly visible tipping point. Brexit was a symptom of the malaise for sure. Trying to do _something_ to change things, even if that something is balls-out stupid. Electing and reelecting Trump, same thing. > [@](#): > > Yes, we had 9/11 and the bungled response by Bush Jr. Yes, there was the Great Recession in the fall of 2008. The Great Recession was an utter failure of the system that basically fucked the Millennials’ (and others’) economic prospects in the aggregate. It took the malaise to a higher level in a way that even the “recovery” couldn’t fix. So I don’t think its importance to our current moment should be understated. > [@](#): > > But by 2015 we were seemingly back on the right track, even if we were going down it somewhat slowly. If you want to go back further, we had a good run after WWII; the US was especially poised to succeed. The lug nuts started loosening in the 1970s with the oil shocks, stagflation, etc. President Carter makes his famous “malaise speech.” The thing is–and this was true even during the Depression–there was still a lot of positivity in the culture and the polity. The Civil Rights Movement had made immense progress, and we had just been on the moon, etc. Reagan built on that remaining positivity effectively. Say what you will about the Gipper, but he wasn’t a nation-traumatizing troll. Some of his tax cuts and whatnot seemed effective–for a while. Keep in mind as well that, during this whole period, the Soviet Union was the Big Bad, showing us how well their alternate economic system, communism, could work. Which was absolutely not well at all.\* So that was a wonderful advertisement encouraging us to do exactly what we were doing economically, and nothing else. (If their system totally sucks, then our own must be perfect–right?!) The 1990s brought more good news. We had a competent Republican president (Clinton–get it?), low inflation, and even a budget surplus! There was talk about the end of economic cycles. Meanwhile, however, our manufacturing base was being shipped off to China. The race to the bottom was on, but we didn’t know it. After 9/11, the wheels were off the bus and sparks were flying. The positivity that came from cultural inertia was running out. Today, there is no sign now of how anything can get better over the long run. People are pissed, depressed, and hopeless. People in rich countries are experiencing economic stagnation, while those from poorer countries are scrambling to get in (legally or otherwise), further raising the cost of housing, etc., for everyone. And yet aging societies need this immigrant labor to survive. It’s a completely fucked combination. There is no country exemplifying best practices, either. No obvious successes. And I watch these videos on YouTube: “Why I’m leaving Canada/the UK/Australia/etc.” There truly is a global cost of living crisis. I just saw a video that had a chart of relative rates of retirement for different age groups across time. The rate of retirement in 2007 for 60-64 was 41%; now it’s 32%. I think that is an incredibly damning statistic. > [@](#): > > Obama was starting to fix some of the damage Bush Jr. had done. We were making progress on many fronts in terms of improved rights for multiple minority groups (racial, religious, gay, and transgender). We had recovered from the Great Recession. I would distinguish the social progress (which has been good) from economic progress (or lack thereof). Also, while Dubya had many fuckups, I’m not sure he was any more to blame for the Great Recession than the presidents before him, including Clinton. By its very nature, capitalism causes bubbles like the housing bubble that set off the Great Recession; one could go so far as to say that such bubbles are in some ways required for it to function (viz, the current AI bubble), since the system depends on constant growth to balance its books. > [@](#): > > There was a plan in place to address the looming threat of global warming. Not sure what that was, but in theory it could still be implemented. I don’t think anything’s really going to be done, however. > [@](#): > > All things considered things were looking promising, and all we had to do was keep on going down the same path Obama had set us on. Sure, it might have taken another decade or two of people like Obama being in charge around the world. But that was all that it would take. Obama was working under the old template, and his failure to engender any major change (other than Obamacare) or punish the companies and oligarchs that helped fuck things up has been a key factor in the cynicism of our times, IMHO. Which is not to say that voting in idiots like Trump or doing things like Brexit is anything other than completely counterproductive. But had Obama been president this whole time, I doubt things would be much different than they are. Probably a lot fewer people would have died from the pandemic (which means that, yeah, I wish Obama _had_ been president this whole time, even though he doesn’t excite me much as a leader). > [@](#): > > Keep those kinds of leaders in elected office and things would have turned out just fine. Presumably a few countries have succeeded in successively maintaining such leaders, and how have they turned out?\*\* That’s what I mean by “no best practices.” The same criticism can be leveled at the right: there are no conservative or libertarian utopias either. > [@](#): > > But the people in developed (first world, western, whatever term is most accurate) countries decided that they didn’t want that kind of future, and they fucked it all up. See, I think the psychology at work here is self-comfort via blame. While it’s true that morons everywhere have made things much worse than they needed to be, it is not true that they thereby deprived of an obvious solution to our social and economic ills. While I think a solution to the social ills is absolutely possible (take better care of people and don’t be dicks), I think the economic solution is as yet unknown. \*To be fair, communism as practiced by the USSR and China was extremely successful in building up the industrial base of those countries. They radically failed thereafter, however, in matching the level of freedom and wealth found in the West. \*\*The pat answer to questions like this tends to be, “Scandinavia is great!” without addressing such problems as [staggering household debt](https://www.reddit.com/r/Norway/comments/1fyvfa5/why_do_norwegians_have_so_much_debt/), etc. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/64 "2025-01-23T17:15:55Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > As for what historians will write in 20 years, I expect it’ll be about how the US genocided most of the world population (including most of its own), kicked off World War III and the end of industrialized civilization. Assuming there _are_ any historians, that is. I’m sorry, but this is ridiculous. I’ve disagreed with you before about the path the US is taking, but even if we take for granted that you’re right about what the US will _try_ to do… If the US ever did act the way you think it will, it will destroy everything that makes it a successful, prosperous, and powerful country. A US that wants to “genocide most of the world population including its own” is not a superpower capable of taking on the rest of the world and winning; it’s a failed rump state. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/65 "2025-01-23T17:33:07Z")
I think we will survive Trump. Our reputation will not. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/66 "2025-01-23T17:33:40Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > To be fair, communism as practiced by the USSR and China was extremely successful in building up the industrial base of those countries. They radically failed thereafter, however, in matching the level of freedom and wealth found in the West. The problem was optimizing a single system. The ideal is to oscillate around the moderate left and right. The 1930s Nazi approach was interesting. Companies (please avoid a demographic hijack) were responsible to be positive at the gross operating profit line. The state took revenue above that line and funded R&D and expansion. Of course any system will work with benign management. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/67 "2025-01-23T17:41:28Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > If the US ever did act the way you think it will, it will destroy everything that makes it a successful, prosperous, and powerful country. A US that wants to “genocide most of the world population including its own” is not a superpower capable of taking on the rest of the world and winning; it’s a failed rump state. Just like Russia; but that hasn’t stopped Russia from being highly aggressive. And a large nuclear arsenal means the US doesn’t _need_ anything else in order to kill billions. I’m not thinking of conquering armies, I’m thinking of genocidal fascists carrying out a new “Final Solution” with death squads at home and ICBMs abroad. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/68 "2025-01-23T17:43:56Z")
Maybe they’ll have figured out why anybody would stand for hours to hear this guy blather. Hours of stream of unconsciousness bullshit, only to be told all these fragments of delirium can be explained as “doing a weave”. He should just come out and admit he has syphilis, but that it’s under complete control. He would thereby give himself a big coating of teflon. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/69 "2025-01-23T17:59:48Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > The problem was optimizing a single system. The ideal is to oscillate around the moderate left and right. Haven’t we kind of done that in the US over the past 20 years? It hasn’t seemed to succeed. Sometimes a generic “system” can’t solve specific problems. That’s why I think the debate around right versus left has become counterproductive. I think the solution will be solutions. You could call them “modules.” The health care module that works will be neither liberal nor conservative (though there could be multiple solutions possible, and perhaps they can be labeled thus based on their relationship to the other possibilities). ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/70 "2025-01-23T18:05:28Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Haven’t we kind of done that in the US over the past 20 years? Yes, and it worked quite well. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/71 "2025-01-23T18:20:50Z")
No? America has slid steadily to the Right for decades, ever since Reagan. With occasional pauses as the Democrats slowed it down. Not stopped, not reversed; just slowed. It’s a ratchet not a pendulum. Trump is about as far “left” a President as we’ll ever see again, because that’s how the modern US _works._ ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/72 "2025-01-23T18:24:38Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > No? America has slid steadily to the Right for decades, ever since Reagan Yes, prior to Reagan we were working between the middle of moderate right and left. Reagan pushed us out of that oscillation. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/73 "2025-01-23T18:26:56Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Yes, prior to Reagan we were working between the middle of moderate right and left. More “moderate right and extreme right”. The left hasn’t been a real factor since the 1960s. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/74 "2025-01-23T18:34:45Z")
Prior to the Reagan tax reforms corporations and the tax system were more paternal. Individuals could average incomes over time like corporations. Medical coverage was an employee benefit. Uncovered medical costs were a deduction. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/75 "2025-01-23T18:38:40Z")
Which isn’t very “left” at all. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/76 "2025-01-23T18:42:53Z")
Not sure of your referent. My right wing friends consider any cooperation far left. Like the trained dragon movies - strictly commie. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/77 "2025-01-23T18:44:44Z")
The US has worked quite well as a country for the past 20 years?! Gotta disagree on that one, compadre. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/78 "2025-01-23T18:46:11Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Not sure of your referent. My right wing friends consider any cooperation far left. Like the trained dragon movies - strictly commie. Because they are _far_ right. “Do everything through corporate paternalism” is at best moderate right, not left. Your argument is just demonstrating how far to the Right the US has slid, where even right wing policies get described as left wing. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/79 "2025-01-23T18:48:10Z")
Agreed. Someone like AOC would be a center-left politician in most countries. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210/80 "2025-01-23T19:01:08Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Gotta disagree on that one, compadre. Perhaps so, but we did work to integrate the military, rest rooms, schools and the work place. Strong unions provided or influenced compensation mobility. I am non-degreed and managed to double my salary every ten years for my 50 year career. Voting access was constantly expanded. What is your referent? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-tipping-point-historians-will-write-on-this-in-20-years/1013210.md?page=5)