# "A War We Just Might Win" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 31, 2007, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749 "2007-07-31T00:32:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/201 "2007-08-02T19:24:03Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] I’m personally less worried about large-scale bloodshed than you or **Sam** is. First of all, the killing and ethnic cleansing has already been going on for quite some time now; Iraq is a much more religiously and ethnically segregated country than it was even a couple of years ago. And nobody in Iraq besides us has the heavy machinery of warfare, or the ability to do much in the way of logistic support. I’m just not that convinced that the Shi’ites can make serious inroads into Sunni territory to mow down large numbers of Sunnis. Or vice versa, if it should come to that. [/QUOTE] I dunno, [machetes seemed to do a pretty good job in Rwanda.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide) > [@](#): > > The Rwandan genocide was the 1994 mass killing of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutu sympathizers in Rwanda and was the largest atrocity during the Rwandan Civil War. This genocide was mostly carried out by two extremist Hutu militia groups, the Interahamwe and the Impuzamugambi, during about 100 days from April 6 through mid-July 1994. At least 500,000 Tutsis and thousands of moderate Hutus died in the genocide.[1] Other estimates put the death toll between 800,000 and 1,000,000.[2][3] > [@](#): > > Most of the victims were killed in their villages or in towns, often by their neighbors and fellow villagers. The militia members mostly killed their victims by chopping them up with machetes, although some army units used rifles. The victims were often hiding in churches and school buildings, where Hutu extremist gangs massacred them. On 12 April 1994, more than 1,500 Tutsis sought refuge in a Catholic church in Kivumu. Local Interahamwe then used bulldozers to knock down the church building. People who tried to escape were hacked down with machetes or shot. Local priest Athanase Seromba was later found guilty of aiding and abetting demolition of the church and convicted of the crime of genocide and crimes against humanity.[15][16] In another case, thousands sought refuge in Ecole Technique Officielle school in Kigali where Belgian UNAMIR soldiers were stationed. However, on 11 April 1994, Belgian soldiers withdrew from the school and members of the Rwandan armed forces and militia killed all the Tutsis who were hiding there.[17] ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/202 "2007-08-02T19:39:29Z")
[QUOTE=Tuckerfan] I dunno, [machetes seemed to do a pretty good job in Rwanda.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide) [/QUOTE] It’s trickier in a country where there’s an AK-47 in every home. There are other differences, of course. Rwanda is only about 10,000 sq. mi. in area; Iraq is 170,000 sq. mi. And even post-massacre, Rwanda had 8 million people in 2002. Also, the Sunnis used to run the Iraqi army. To the extent that military tactics are useful, they’ll have an easier time employing them after we’re gone than they do now. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/203 "2007-08-02T19:56:47Z")
[QUOTE=H3Knuckles] The USAF didn’t deliberately bomb her house. The US armed forces are not pursuing a goal of Iraqi extermination, nor Sunni, Shiite, Khurd, Assyrian, or otherwise. Nor are they actively trying to reduce their population to a controllable level (as was done to the Native Americans, which would be genocide, imo). They’re not even using Iraqi deaths as a metric for success like they did in the Viet Nam war (which at least stinks of genocide). [/QUOTE] I really do not wish to keep derailing the thread with this line of argument – even if I acknowledge that I was the one who first brought it up in passing. Having said, I’ll try to respond to your post as concisely as I can and leave it at that. 1-As you yourself point-out, we all know that innocents die in wars, 2-Surely the architects of this war knew that going in. 3-I think we can all agree at this point that the war was based on lies. IOW, it was a premeditated war of choice. 4-Based both on the UN Charter of which the US is a signatory and by virtue of your Constitution, any treaty signed by your Government becomes part of the law of the land (this video presentation gives a very detailed definition of what I am saying: [Was The U.S. Invasion Of Iraq Legal or Illegal Under International Law](http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18090.htm)) the invasion itself was illegal. 5-The number of innocent lives lost since the beginning of hostilities can, and should be, placed directly under the US’s responsibility. Why? Because absent said invasion it can easily be argued, based on the preceding decade at the very least, that the number of violent deaths in Iraq was quite a few orders of magnitude smaller. 6-Whether or not it is the _intent_ of the attackers to kill innocent people, we, again, know that bombs do NOT discriminate upon their landing. Thus "intentional targeting " and “collateral damage” euphemisms aside, I think we can safely conclude that all and sundry involved in these attacks **knows** that, inevitably, civilians will die. 7-If we combine the numbers provided by **Tagos** and **Banquet Bear** (incidentally, thank you for the kind words, **BB** , but I am just one of many including yourself, that is troubled to no end by the whole Iraq debacle) you’ll find that we’re talking about, roughly, 50% of Iraq’s original 25 million citizens that have been affected negatively by this campaign. And that means anything from being killed/wounded to having to flee to lacking food, etc. 8-If we focus solely on the number of deaths, we have estimates that range from the IBC’s 75,000 to The Lancet’s 600,000+ (and that’s over a year old). So, using a number in between for the sake of fairness, 300,000, we have a 12% mortality rate nation-wide. Translated into a US per-capita figure, that would equal **36 million American deaths** out of a population of 300 million. Not much else I can say. I know what those numbers mean to **me** , everyone else can come to their own conclusion. And with that, I’ll leave that particular topic aside – at least in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/204 "2007-08-02T20:06:41Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] So, using a number in between for the sake of fairness, 300,000, we have a 12% mortality rate nation-wide. Translated into a US per-capita figure, that would equal **36 million American deaths** out of a population of 300 million. [/QUOTE] Wait, is your math off here? Using your numbers (25 million and 300,000), isn’t that a 1.2% mortality rate? Still a lot of people. And that would translate to 3.6 million Americans, not 36 million. Correct? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/205 "2007-08-02T20:13:17Z")
[QUOTE=magellan01] Wait, is your math off here? Using your numbers (25 million and 300,000), isn’t that a 1.2% mortality rate? Still a lot of people. And that would translate to 3.6 million Americans, not 36 million. Correct? [/QUOTE] You are absolutely correct, sir. I did not use decimal points in my calculations thus the gross mistake. My apologies. But as you said, that is still a hell of a lot of dead people. For no good reason. ---
**Author:** ![yanceylebeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yanceylebeef/32/12290_2.png) [@yanceylebeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yanceylebeef)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/206 "2007-08-02T20:32:01Z")
Getting back to the OP, according to sources [linked here,](http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/11682.html#more-11682)(warning, The Carpetbagger Report is a lefty site. Shields up!) the two authors, O’Hanlon and Pollack are now backpedaling furiously from the Op-ed. To quote from the site…"I talked to Pollack yesterday. In answer to some of the questions I raised: he spoke with very few Iraqis and could independently confirm very little of what he heard from American officials…. The improvements in security, he said, are “relative,” which is a heavy qualification, given the extreme violence of 2006 and early 2007. And it’s far from clear that progress anywhere is sustainable. Everywhere he went, the line Pollack heard was that the central government in Baghdad is broken and the only solutions that can work are local ones. It was a step back from the almost definitive tone of “A War We Just Might Win” (a bad headline, and not the authors’)." I love the internets. it’s geting harder and harder to write something based on wishes and hunches. It’s almost as if the entire on-line community yelled CITE! ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/207 "2007-08-02T21:07:38Z")
[QUOTE=yanceylebeef] CITE! [/QUOTE] We just might win, if they all die of thirst: [Water taps run dry in Baghdad](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070802/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_070802125011;_ylt=AvBs26W9RGCElWrysWfW6mME1vAI) > [@](#): > > Much of the Iraqi capital was without running water Thursday and had been for at least 24 hours, compounding the urban misery in a war zone and the blistering heat at the height of the Baghdad summer. > ADVERTISEMENT > > Residents and city officials said large sections in the west of the capital had been virtually dry for six days because the already strained electricity grid cannot provide sufficient power to run water purification and pumping stations. > > Baghdad routinely suffers from periodic water outages, but this one is described by residents as one of the most extended and widespread in recent memory. It’s GOOD that we no longer get reports on power availability in Baghdad. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/208 "2007-08-02T21:47:37Z")
A follow-up to Squink’s post: [**Why Is Half Of Iraq In Absolute Poverty ?**](http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18104.htm) > [@](#): > > \*\* I was just listening to the BBC World radio. A report from Oxfam - and in your eyes that makes it credible - over 70 % of us Iraqis, no longer have access to clean drinking water. > > I say no longer have because I remember not so long ago, one could turn on the tap and drink. As simple as that. > > The report goes on to say that over 50% of Iraqis are under nourished and 1 out of 3 is literally starving. And that 50% live in abject poverty. 50% !!! > > Again, I remember a time, even during the “civilized” sanctions that your countries imposed upon us, everyone had to eat. Not much, but there was food. > > The Iraqi government had developed a system of rationing that, to this day, still leaves your top U.N reps in awe. > > When I mention that in my posts, I am accused of waging a war of disinformation, psy-ops and being a paid agent. > > Now you listen to me and you get off your butts and read. Educate yourselves, oh great people of the West. > > A few years back, you could not even locate Iraq on a map . Now you have all suddenly become experts on Her. > > Prior to your liberation, there was no starvation in Iraq. Prior to your liberation, there was no abject poverty, the kind we witness today. Prior to your liberation, kids did not stutter out of fear. Prior to your liberation, they went to free schools, learned, grew up and became full functioning adults, with degrees, diplomas and expertise. No, we did not have learning impediments before your liberation. > Today 92 % of Iraqi children suffer from it. Today, 99% of Iraqi children are traumatized for life. > > So I ask you again - Why ? > > What have Iraqis done to you? Did they invade you? Did they steal your homes? Did they imprison you? Did they torture you? Did they rape you? Did they occupy your lands? > > \ > > A few days ago, I was reading an article about a french film producer called Alain Tasma who has just finished directing a film on the Rwandan Genocide. > > During “Operation Turquoise”, between 700’000 and 900’000 Rwandans perished. > > None of you, not a single one of you, had any objections to calling it a Genocide. > It was a given, it was accepted, it was fact. And rightly so, because it was a genocide. > > But when it comes to Iraq, all sorts of counter figures pop up. All kinds of other statistics are put forward to try to prove “well, yes but”… > > Again my question is why ? > > Why did you accept it without questions in the case of Rwanda, why did you accept it without questions in the case of the Holocaust, why is it when it comes to Arabs and Arab Muslims in particular, it becomes a topic for debate and nit picking? And “it” refers to Genocide. > > Can you answer this question?\*\* – more at source Any takers would like to answer this Lady? **Sam**? Anyone? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/209 "2007-08-03T01:09:37Z")
> [@](#): > > If we focus solely on the number of deaths, we have estimates that range from the IBC’s 75,000 to The Lancet’s 600,000+ (and that’s over a year old). So, using a number in between for the sake of fairness, 300,000, we have a 12% mortality rate nation-wide. Translated into a US per-capita figure, that would equal 36 million American deaths out of a population of 300 million. Let’s face facts. We’ve controlled Iraq for over four years now. If we wanted a genocide, they’d all be dead by now. The Germans killed ten million people in five years. The Soviets killed twelve million in five years during Stalin’s purges. The Hutus in Rwanda were killing over 300,000 Tutsis a month in 1994. You think we couldn’t have killed Iraqis that fast if we wanted to? ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/210 "2007-08-03T01:34:31Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] A follow-up to Squink’s post: [**Why Is Half Of Iraq In Absolute Poverty ?**](http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18104.htm) – more at source Any takers would like to answer this Lady? **Sam**? Anyone? [/QUOTE] Sure. Because it does not fit the definition of the word. Let’s say **Red Fury’s** average number is correct: 300,000. Now if those 300,000 were all intentionally killed by the U.S. forces, then we have a genocide. But that is not the case. Many of the 300,000 were killed—intentionally and unintentionally—at the hands of fellow Iraqis. What percent were killed by U.S. forces. I do not know. Anyone else know? **Red**? And what number of those killed by the U.S. forces were killed intentionally? And what percent of them were killed because they were terrorists? For it to be genocide, not only do a lot of people have to be killed, but they have to be of the same group, and be killed for being part of that group. It is often brough up that we are in the middle of a civil war. To the extent that that is true, a civil war does not equal genocide. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/211 "2007-08-03T01:38:29Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Any takers would like to answer this Lady? **Sam**? Anyone? [/QUOTE] Why should **Sam** come back? People are throwing these facts in his face, and everyone knows that facts are just stuffed with that damned “liberal bias”. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/212 "2007-08-03T01:39:17Z")
Isn’t 12% of 28 million something like 3.3 million? Or am I doing the math wrong here? -XT ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/213 "2007-08-03T01:44:36Z")
RedFury has already said he screwed up the percentage. I was quoting his post for the estimate of the total amount of people killed. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/214 "2007-08-03T01:45:41Z")
[QUOTE=Little Nemo] RedFury has already said he screwed up the percentage. I was quoting his post for the estimate of the total amount of people killed. [/QUOTE] Oh, I missed that part…pardon. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/215 "2007-08-03T05:41:28Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Since I’m basically being pounded (over and over) about the same thing I’ll just pick one to reply too and then leave it at that: -XT [/QUOTE] …I hope that you did not see my post as an attack. I do hope you get a chance to read through the Brookings Institute statistics. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/216 "2007-08-03T15:26:41Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] This is a fairly compelling argument, and one I’ve thought about a lot. The trouble is, most analysts do not agree that the problem is laziness or willingness to let Americans do the lifting. If it were, then I’d agree that pulling out is the right thing to do. The problem is that the Malaki government is simply biding its time. It wants the Americans to go, because it holds the majority and wants to solidify power without all that messy power and resource sharing the Americans are demanding. It would be better if the Malaki government knew the Americans _weren’t_ leaving, so they’d be forced to make some accomodations. [/QUOTE] That just doesn’t make any sense. If the American troops are going to stay indefinitely, then (by your own analysis) the Malaki government will simply bide its time indefinitely, causing the political problems to fester because (as I said) the Iraqis can just keep kicking the can down the road for as long as Uncle Sam is willing to provide them with a safety hammock, er, safety net. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2007, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/217 "2007-08-04T00:59:21Z")
There is no Maliki government. he is our man . When he says something we don’t like ,he changes it within 2 days. That is our government. They meet and live in the green zone for safety. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2007, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/218 "2007-08-04T01:04:14Z")
[QUOTE=Banquet Bear] …I hope that you did not see my post as an attack. I do hope you get a chance to read through the Brookings Institute statistics. [/QUOTE] I didn’t see your post as an attack along the same lines. I haven’t had time to read through your link but I’ll try and make some time to skim through it tonight. -XT ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2007, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/219 "2007-08-04T06:11:59Z")
[QUOTE=gonzomax] There is no Maliki government. he is our man . When he says something we don’t like ,he changes it within 2 days. That is our government. They meet and live in the green zone for safety. [/QUOTE] Do you have an example for this claim? al Maliki has made a number of very loud complaints against U.S. actions (as he seeks to out-Sadr al Sadr in hoping to keep his Shiite support) and I can recall no occasion when he has really backpedalled. In the meantime, he constantly thwarts (or refuses to support) U.S. initiatives. He appears to be hoping that he can make enough anti-U.S./anti Sunni claims until the U.S. pulls out so that he can stay in power once the U.S. pulls out, co-opting the electorate that would normally choose to put al Sadr in power once the U.S. is gone and al Sadr is no longer boycotting the system. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2007, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/220 "2007-08-04T18:26:35Z")
How about his recent call to take Patraeus back. He came out loudly saying he had disagreements and wanted him gone. two days later ,suddenly muffled. [http://digg.com/world\_news/Maliki\_tells\_Bush\_Get\_Gen\_Petraeus\_out](http://digg.com/world_news/Maliki_tells_Bush_Get_Gen_Petraeus_out) [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20013807/page/2](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20013807/page/2) He quickly backpedalled after asking the general out. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749.md?page=12)