# "A War We Just Might Win" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 31, 2007, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749 "2007-07-31T00:32:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/241 "2007-08-06T04:22:14Z")
> [@](#): > > Only in the NRA’s fantasys do AK-47s and such help against a tyrannical ruler. I agree for the most part. A bunch of militiamen with rifles are never going to overthrow the government of the United States or Russia or China or Iran. But Saddam’s Iraq? That’s a different case. Like Libya or North Korea, it was essentially a one man government - one shooter really could have toppled the whole regime. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/242 "2007-08-06T04:35:52Z")
[QUOTE=Little Nemo] I agree for the most part. A bunch of militiamen with rifles are never going to overthrow the government of the United States or Russia or China or Iran. But Saddam’s Iraq? That’s a different case. Like Libya or North Korea, it was essentially a one man government - one shooter really could have toppled the whole regime. [/QUOTE] Assuming he got past thousands of bodyguards, could figure out where Saddam was, got lucky and targeted Saddam and not one of his doubles, and didn’t care about his life or that of anyone slightly associated with him. And didn’t mind Saddam’s sons taking over. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/243 "2007-08-06T19:07:12Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Knowing **XT** , I suggest you give him **six more months** after that. And then another six…lather, rinse, repeat. [/QUOTE] That’s what the authors of the piece [are giving it](http://thinkprogress.org/2007/08/06/ohanlon-six-months/): > [@](#): > > On Fox News Sunday yesterday, O’Hanlon and Pollack put a timeframe on their call for stay the course: six months. “It’s basically saying nothing more dramatic than give it six more months or so, maybe nine more months,” said O’Hanlon. “I agree with Mike entirely that we can’t give this much more time,” added Pollack. So mark down 1 to 1.5 FU’s for these two. Wow, they are serious policy analysts for former liberal war opponents and scathing Bush attackers. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/244 "2007-08-06T19:18:13Z")
[QUOTE=Hentor the Barbarian] That’s what the authors of the piece are giving it: [/QUOTE] Yeah, 'cause that XT guy gets ALL his news from Fox, ehe? :rolleyes: But thanks for the facinating article Hentor. Last time I checked September was in…well, one month. Not 6. Not 12. Not ad infinitum. But then Knowing Red, he always has had trouble with things like basic math (one month, 6 months, 12 months…whats the difference?)… -XT ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/245 "2007-08-06T19:42:02Z")
[QUOTE=Hentor the Barbarian] That’s what the authors of the piece [are giving it](http://thinkprogress.org/2007/08/06/ohanlon-six-months/):So mark down 1 to 1.5 FU’s for these two. Wow, they are serious policy analysts for former liberal war opponents and scathing Bush attackers. [/QUOTE] Christ - did they really have to actually pick on Friedman unit? -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/246 "2007-08-06T19:47:56Z")
[QUOTE=Merijeek] Christ - did they really have to actually pick on Friedman unit? -Joe [/QUOTE] I figure that that is why they threw the “9 months” in there as well, just to shake things up a bit. Relax, **xtisme** , this really isn’t about you this time. I just grabbed the last quote about the Freidman Unit that I could remember from the thread. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/247 "2007-08-06T20:03:55Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Well hell, if two Iraqi bloggers said it, it’s _got_ to be true. :rolleyes: While I agree with you that Maliki is pretty much our puppet (and I don’t think the fact that he’s got a certain amount of latitude to shout, stamp his feet, and even occasionally act in ways displeasing to us over non-earthshaking stuff disproves this), the case you’re making for it is pretty lousy. [/QUOTE] Fact is lots of bloggers and articles say Iraq is a puppet state. I can not use them. I have to find one as neutral as possible to counter a politically slanted one. Preferably I must find one that is conservative. otherwise my views are slanted. Unslanted,the military and main news bureaus. (sure) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/248 "2007-08-06T20:42:30Z")
[QUOTE=Hentor the Barbarian] Relax, xtisme, this really isn’t about you this time. I just grabbed the last quote about the Freidman Unit that I could remember from the thread. [/QUOTE] Ah…apologies then. I figured you bolded my name for a reason. I’m no fan of Fox (I neither watch their cable news channel nor visit their website)…and so I was a bit tense when it seemed you were trying to say I did. Carry on. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/249 "2007-08-06T20:45:14Z")
[QUOTE=gonzomax] Fact is lots of bloggers and articles say Iraq is a puppet state. I can not use them. I have to find one as neutral as possible to counter a politically slanted one. Preferably I must find one that is conservative. otherwise my views are slanted. Unslanted,the military and main news bureaus. (sure) [/QUOTE] C’mon, Gonzomaz, everyone knows facts have a liberal bias. You have to stick to Fox News, Limbaugh, military sites, etc., because they’re the only ones who are willing and able to counter that bias that facts have. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/250 "2007-08-06T20:45:19Z")
Heck, I watch Fox all the time, watch Kieth Ubermensch, then Hannity and His Bitch. I love entertainment. I don’t suppose that’s enough to qualify for my Certificate of Critical Thinking? Darn. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/251 "2007-08-06T21:22:17Z")
Turns out [Maliki’s an Untier _and_ a Divider](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070806/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_070802125088;_ylt=AsWrsV63zEVOT0m72.KgarME1vAI): > [@](#): > > Iraq’s political crisis worsened Monday as five more ministers announced a boycott of Cabinet meetings — leaving the embattled prime minister’s unity government with no members affiliated with Sunni political factions. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2007, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/252 "2007-08-06T23:42:53Z")
[QUOTE=Hentor the Barbarian] That’s what the authors of the piece [are giving it](http://thinkprogress.org/2007/08/06/ohanlon-six-months/):So mark down 1 to 1.5 FU’s for these two. [/QUOTE] Which, btw, is when [we run out of troops](http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Pentagon_to_announce_massive_continuation_of_0731.html) and have to scale down the escalation, “turning the corner” or not. Unless tours are further extended beyond their currently already-extended 15 months, and we send what’s left of the Guard back yet again, that is. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2007, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/253 "2007-08-07T01:03:05Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Turns out [Maliki’s an Untier _and_ a Divider](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070806/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_070802125088;_ylt=AsWrsV63zEVOT0m72.KgarME1vAI): [/QUOTE] Sure, but “Is the surge working?” polls show a 10% swing Shrub’s way. So, the real victory is in process. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2007, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/254 "2007-08-07T01:23:48Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Turns out [Maliki’s an Untier _and_ a Divider](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070806/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_070802125088;_ylt=AsWrsV63zEVOT0m72.KgarME1vAI): [/QUOTE] An excellent typo, maybe even clearer than the original phrase. > [@Hentor the Barbarian](#): > > So mark down 1 to 1.5 FU’s for these two. Wow, they are serious policy analysts for former liberal war opponents and scathing Bush attackers. That’s really not fair, you just don’t understand the allure of FUs. They’re like Lay’s potato chips – you can’t have just one. They come by the bagful. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2007, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/255 "2007-08-07T01:28:32Z")
[QUOTE=Merijeek] Sure, but “Is the surge working?” polls show a 10% swing Shrub’s way. So, the real victory is in process. [/QUOTE] [Firesign] _We’re bringing the war back home!_ [/Firesign] Oh, never mind: that’s where the _real_ war has been all along, AFATC. Too bad they couldn’t have shot the whole thing on a sound stage, like in _Wag the Dog_, rather than killing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, and forcing millions into exile. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2007, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/256 "2007-08-07T03:14:04Z")
[http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=948\_1180021171](http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=948_1180021171) We are having fun aren’t we. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2007, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/257 "2007-08-08T00:43:28Z")
Whatever happened to Bush’s “War Czar,” anyway? He was appointed back in mid-May, then promptly vanished from public view. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2007, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/258 "2007-08-08T00:53:30Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Whatever happened to Bush’s “War Czar,” anyway? He was appointed back in mid-May, then promptly vanished from public view. [/QUOTE] They’ll probably whip him out when it’s time for a scapegoat. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2007, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/259 "2007-08-08T06:21:32Z")
[QUOTE=Hentor the Barbarian] Wow, they are serious policy analysts for former liberal war opponents and scathing Bush attackers. [/QUOTE] Pollack is a highly respected analyst and author of _The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq_. Which I read. And quoted on these boards repeatedly in Jan 2003, before the invasion. But his publisher chose the title, you see. Similarly, the NYT editors chose the title of his and Hanlon’s latest. I seem to recall that Pollack later claimed that _Storm_ was a balanced, careful evaluation of the pros and cons of invading Iraq, which was news to me. Anyway, his op-ed piece stated that the political system remains deadlocked, though curiously he didn’t seem to emphasize that _if there’s no political deal, tactical victories by US troops don’t amount to squat_. * * * In other news [Greg Sargent of TPM](http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/horsesmouth/2007/08/breaking_iraq_t.php) notes that a third think tanker who was on that trip is more pessimistic than the Brookings Duo. [Anthony H. Cordesman](http://www.csis.org/index.php?option=com_csis_pubs&task=view&id=3994) believes that we must remain engaged in Iraq whether we pull out or not, but that the case for strategic patience remains tenuous. I’ve only skimmed up to page 8 of his .pdf, but it looks like a piece of tough minded analysis. One aspect I had missed was the awakening of many Sunni tribes – they are turning against Al Qaeda and may even be willing to cut a deal with the central government. But there are as yet no decisive trends in Iraqi civilian casualties. (Pre-emption from MfM: consider seasonalties – killings decline during the summer – and year over year changes). ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2007, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749/260 "2007-08-09T00:53:35Z")
A very nice [“next six months” timeline](http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/08/timeline.html/). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/a-war-we-just-might-win/413749.md?page=14)